Laurence Kotlikoff
I have no idea how Laurence Kotlikoff calculates his numbers, but he claims that there is a "fiscal gap" as follows:
2009 $184 trillion
2010 $202 trillion
2011 $211 trillion
2012 $222 trillion.
No word on 2013 yet. My own calculation comes up with about $87 trillion. I'd like to know how he does it. It has something to do with extending the CBO's Alternative Fiscal Scenario.
Update: I think he is using a method introduced by economist Alan Auerbach, who wrote a 2004 paper called: "Sources of the Long-Term Fiscal Gap". This sees Defense and Homeland Security spending as an "unfunded liability".
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