Facebook list 58 genders

Gender is no longer limited to male or female.  There are 56 others, starting with "agender" (neutral).  And if that isn't enough, one of them is "other".  And its not hard to think of some that they might have missed ("trisexual","misogynist","private","traditional male").  Bizarre.

Prof. Hamamoto on the Cloward and Pivon strategy

Watch it

New Social Security Report

The new Social Security Trust Fund report just came out.  Two things to note.  First, when will the combined trust funds be exhausted?

The dollar level of the theoretical combined trust fund reserves declines beginning in 2020 until reserves become depleted in 2033. Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2016 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034.

That is only 19 years away.

Second, what is the 75-year deficit?

The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $10.6 trillion in present value and is $1.0 trillion more than the measured level of $9.6 trillion a year ago.

NYSE margin debt nears all-time high

Source: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8

What happens when New Orders reaches a new high?

2000-09-01  66,554.  Recession starts 6 months later.

2008-04-01  69,040.  Recession started 5 months earlier.

2014-03-01  70,995.  Recession starts ....

Update (much later):
The all-time high appears to be

2014-09-01  73,990

Declassified plans for a military base on the moon

See http://gizmodo.com/declassified-the-governments-secret-plan-for-a-militar-1611051037/+mattnovak

What happens when initial jobless claims drop below 290,000?

1989-01-21 282,000.  Recession begins July 1990, 17 months later.

2000-04-15 259,000.  Recession begins March 2001, 11 months later.

2006-01-28 282,000.  Recession begins Dec 2007, 23 months later.
2014-07-19 284,000.  Recession begins Fall 2015??.

Update:  The new jobless claims for the week ended 7/19 were subsequently revised to 279,000.

Top Cities #25

Top Cities
Influenced by Population, adjusted by HDI.  Raw score in brackets.  See previous list. US cities in bold and EU cities in italics.

1. Tokyo (4) [29,028]
2. New York (6) [19,140]
3. London (1) [10,719]
4. Beijing (9) [13,279]
5. Seoul-Incheon (10) [21,401]
6. Paris (5) [10,251]
7. Hong Kong (2) [5910]
8. Singapore (3) [5407]
9. Shanghai-Suzhou (12) [19,480]
10. Los Angeles (14) [15,189]
11. Moscow (15) [10,308]
12. Chicago (7) [8,560]
13. Toronto (8) [5,726]
14. Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto (18) [13,973]
15. Washington-Baltimore (19) [7,199]
16. Zurich (11) [4,960]
17. Istanbul (21) [7,246]
18. Dubai (13) [2,355]
19. Taipei (17) [7,089]
20. Sao Paolo (25)   [11,457]
21. San Francisco/San Jose (16)  [6,497]
22. Mexico City (26) [13,334]
23. Bangkok (22) [7,046]
24. Boston (27) [6,409]
25. Amsterdam (Randstad) (20) [4,602]
26. Guangzhou/Foshan/Dongguan (31) [17,213]
27. Shenzhen (30) [6,395]
28. Kuala Lumpur (23) [3,992]
29. Sydney (24)  [4,179]
30. Buenos Aires (33) [10,260]
31.  Mumbai (34) [6,906]
32. Dallas (29) [5619]
33. Frankfurt (28) [2,201]
34. Jakarta (38) [10,603]
35. Houston (39) [5224]
36. Milan (36) [3,881]
37. Oslo (32) [1,368]
38. Philadelphia (42) [6409]
39. Madrid (44) [5013]
40. Geneva (35) [900]
41. Melbourne (40) [3739]
42. Copenhagen (37) [1218]
43. Montreal (43) [3,278]
44. Tianjin (49) [6889]
45. Chongqing (50) [3228]
46. Brussels (41) [1609]
47. Barcelona (52) [3701]
48. Berlin (53) [3682]
49. Rome (51) [2542]
50. Munich (45) [1799]
51. Vienna (46) [1662]
52. Stockholm (47) [1699]
53. Dublin (48) [1099]
54. Manila [9581]
55. Rhine-Ruhr [9564]
56. Delhi [7704]
57. Tehran [7323]
58. Cairo [7143]
59. Doha (54) [1322]
60. Miami (55) [5224]

Bond valuation

Over a period of less than 3 weeks, the interest rates on the 30-year bond dropped from  3.47% to 3.25%.  How does the value of the bond change?  When interest rates drop, the value rises.  But by how much?

Assume a face value of $1,000 and a nominal rate of 4.0% annually, with simple interest paid every 6 months, and the bond repaid after 30 years.  At an interest rate of 4.0%, the present value is $1,000.  At an interest rate of 3.47%, the present value is $1,098.32.  At an interest rate of 3.25%, the present value is $1,143.04, an increase of about 4%.

As interest rates approach zero, the value increases almost exponentially.  For example, if the effective interest rate drops to 1.0% on a 30-year 4% nominal bond, the value would increase to $1,775.88.

Are interest rates more likely to increase or decrease?  If stocks are in a bubble, then investors might look for alternatives, and bid up bonds, decreasing interest rates.  What if the stock market crashes? Investors might get spooked, and also shift money into bonds.  Interest rates would increase only if investors are worried about inflation.  So I think long-term interest rates will continue to decrease.

Mission Statement

If Buddha won't come to the mountain, the mountain must come to Buddha

I think I missed up the proverb. Anyways, I posted a while back that a recession was impossible so long as short-term rates are lower than long-term rates. So the Fed can avoid a recession by keeping short-term rates near zero.

 But recessions are inevitable and impossible to avoid. Therefore, long term rates must drop. I think the 10-year rate could drop below 1.5% and the 30-year rate could drop below 2.0%. We will see.

Update: The 10-year German rate is at 1.08%.

Ode to Wernher von Braun

Bond in Space

Source: http://sayhellospaceman.blogspot.com/2011/06/diamonds-are-forever-1971.html

Apollo Lunar Surface Journal

Check out http://www.hq.nasa.gov/alsj/frame.html

Source: http://www.hq.nasa.gov/alsj/as17jeep.jpg

Um, photoshop?

Goudy Bookletter 1911

Old school.  Available from  Google Fonts.  I find it very attractive and readable - the tilted "e", the crooked "v" and "w".

False flag in Ukraine?

Did Ukraine shot down MH-17 and blame it on the pro-Russian separatists?

"And finally, as RT reported, the national governor of the Donetsk region, Pavel Gubarev, admitted that while the separatists indeed are in possession of one BUK missile unit, it is not operational, and even if it was, it would be unable to reach a height of over 30,000 feet without central radar guidance which the Donetsk region does not have, once again suggesting that a Surface to Air Missile, if indeed one was used, came from the Ukraine side. Surely it will be very easy for international monitors to validate this report."  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/final-moments-flight-mh-17-russian-side-story

"The American government and media are loudly proclaiming that it must have been the Russian loyalists within Ukraine who shot down the plane because they possessed the type of missile used in the attack: SA-11 missiles fired from a Buk missile system.  Of course, the Ukrainians possess them as well."  http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/07/ukraine-possessed-type-missile-shot-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh-17.html

Drink Milk

Foil

Que Bello

See also http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2014/01/que-bello.html

Borracho de amor

Oye

See also:  Mil Horas
Escandalo
Que Nadie Sepa Mi Sufrir

Te Extraño

DJIA all-time high

225 W 57th St - Nordstrom Tower

"New York City’s skyscraper boom is entering unparalleled territory, and 225 West 57th Street could very well represent the crest of the current wave, assuming the tower is financed. The new height details will result in several superlatives: Manhattan will finally retake the ‘tallest roof’ in the United States from Chicago’s Willis Tower, which stands 1,451′, and 225 West 57th Street will become the tallest residential building in the entire world, surpassing both 432 Park Avenue and Mumbai’s World One Tower."
http://newyorkyimby.com/2014/07/nordstrom-tower-to-become-worlds-tallest-residential-building.html

The building is slated for completion in 2018.
===================================
"... construction on an even taller super-luxury building, 225 West 57th Street, is scheduled to begin next year, so 432 Park’s reign as the city’s tallest residence and second-tallest skyscraper will be short-lived."
http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2014/05/condo-towers-architecture-new-york-city

Si me amaras mañana

A little night music

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQuaVy-RAqc&feature=youtube_gdata_player Eine Klein nachtmusik

What will happen on July 20?

Or is it July 27?  G20 and G7.

WWI began on July 28, 2014, one hundred years ago.  The Bretton Woods conference ended on July 22, 1944, 70 years ago.

Update:  Someone else thinks she was referring to July 25, 2014.
"1) She emphasizes the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall. She pauses, and again says 25th. This is just after saying drop the zero on the 70th anniversary of Bretton Woods. -- 7/25

2) The date, 7/25/2014 = 7 / 2+5 / 2+0+1+4 = 7/7/7 when numbers for month, date, and year are compressed."

================
Another theory:
"2014, you drop the zero, fourteen, two times, seven." 2 x 14 = 28.  Fourteen two times = 28.  Therefore she is referring to July 28, 2014.  7/28/14.

A market measure with a perfect track record for predicting recessions.

The inverted yield curve.

"The yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years. That is seven out of seven times — a perfect forecasting track record. The yield curve is inverted when short-term interest rates (e.g. the 3-year Treasury) are higher than long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-year Treasury yield)."   Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/inverted-yield-curve-predicts-recessions-2014-7

Here is the current yield curve:

Source: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

So it looks like it will be a long time before the next recession.

Update:  See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-09/destroying-recessions-cant-happen-without-yield-curve-inversion-myth

In Debt We Trust

M6 up slightly in June

M6	05/31/14	06/30/14
M2	11274.8	11317.3
Public Debt	12538.0	12566.4
Fed Owned	-2368.5	-2397.0
G30 stocks	7114.6	7200.1
	28558.9	28686.8
		100.45%

It is up 0.45% in June.  Most of this increase came from stocks

15 Central Park West

781 Fifth Avenue

One Beacon Court

25 Columbus Circle

Trump World Tower

432 Park Avenue

This will be the 2nd tallest building in New York at 1398 feet when it is finished in 2015.

Bridging the Bering Strait