Tuesday, July 8, 2014

A market measure with a perfect track record for predicting recessions.

The inverted yield curve.

"The yield curve inverted just prior to every U.S. recession in the past 50 years. That is seven out of seven times — a perfect forecasting track record. The yield curve is inverted when short-term interest rates (e.g. the 3-year Treasury) are higher than long-term interest rates (e.g. the 10-year Treasury yield)."   Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/inverted-yield-curve-predicts-recessions-2014-7

Here is the current yield curve:

So it looks like it will be a long time before the next recession.

Update:  See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-09/destroying-recessions-cant-happen-without-yield-curve-inversion-myth

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