What happens when initial jobless claims drop below 290,000?

1989-01-21 282,000.  Recession begins July 1990, 17 months later.

2000-04-15 259,000.  Recession begins March 2001, 11 months later.

2006-01-28 282,000.  Recession begins Dec 2007, 23 months later.
2014-07-19 284,000.  Recession begins Fall 2015??.

Update:  The new jobless claims for the week ended 7/19 were subsequently revised to 279,000.