Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Seven Year Cycle Theory

The Seven-Year Cycle Theory holds that recessions and/or stock market crashes occur every 7 years.  Sometimes these are a year off.  How does it look?

1938. The Recession of 1937-38 is only considered minor when compared to the Great Depression, but is otherwise among the worst recessions of the 20th century.
1945.  Mild post-war recession from Feb-Oct 1945 caused by 75% reduction in federal spending from 44% of GDP to 9%.  This is the only fiscal (as opposed to monetary) recession in the last 100 years. The unemployment rate "jumped" from 1% to 3%.
1948-1949.  Recession that doesn't fit the pattern. Called a "brief economic downturn".
1952.  Inflation was a concern so the Fed tightened monetary policy in 1952 causing interest rates to rise.  The increase in rates lead to a decrease in demand causing the recession of 1953-1954.  See Recession of 1953.
1959.  The Recession of 1958 was a sharp worldwide economic downturn in 1958, and the most significant one during the post-World War II boom between 1945 and 1970. Another primarily monetary recession occurred after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 1959, called the Recession of 1960-61.
1966.  The 1966 Crash. ("As Vietnam and Johnson’s Great Society social programs began to push up government spending, the Federal Reserve responded by tightening credit conditions early in 1966. After hitting new highs in January and March of that year, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index dropped about 22 percent over the next eight months. It then rallied to even higher heights by early 1968, as the spending-fueled economy drove corporate earnings upward. The 1966 market downturn did not trigger a recession and never became a factor in the 1966 or 1968 elections. It was soon forgotten." Source: The Forgettable Crash of 1966).
1969-1970. Recession that doesn't fit the pattern. Labeled "relatively mild".
1973.  A quadrupling of gas prices and soaring government spending led to stagflation, the 1973 Oil Crisis, 1973-1974 Stock Market Crash, and 1973-75 Recession.
1980.  The Fed raised interest rates from 11% to 20%  to combat inflation and there were two recession in 1980 and 1981-1982, collectively called the Early 1980s Recession.
1987. On Black Monday, October 19, 1987, the Dow crashed and lost 23% of its value in a single day.  Stock markets around the world likewise crashed.  However, no recession followed.
1990-1991.  Early 1990s recession that doesn't fit the pattern.  Labeled "brief".
1994. The 1994 Bond Market Carnage. ("The 1994 bond market massacre is remembered with horror by those who lived through it. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County." Source.)
2001.  The collapse of the Dot-Com bubble and September Eleven attacks brought a decade of growth to a halt in the Early 2000s Recession.
2008. Lehman Brothers collapsed, the stock market crashed and we were plunged into the worst recession that we have experienced as a nation since the Great Depression.  See Great Recession.
2015.  Stock market crash and subsequent recession?

Also read this:

"Jonathan Cahn, author of the mega-bestselling book “The Harbinger,” thinks he has figured it out.  In his sequel, called of “The Mystery of the Shemitah,” the messianic rabbi reveals the shocking discovery that the five great economic crashes of the last 40 years – 1973, 1980, 1987, 2001 and 2008 – have all occurred in Shemitah years – those God set apart as sabbath years.  in 2001 and 2008 they coincided precisely with the exact end of the Shemitah year on the Hebrew calendar day of Elul 29.  It’s no mystery that of “The Mystery of the Shemitah” comes out just before the next Shemitah cycle begins Sept. 25, 2014 – ending Sept. 13, 2015.  

Is Cahn predicting doom and gloom on Sept. 13, 2015? He’s careful to avoid a prediction, saying, “In the past, this ushered in the worst collapses in Wall Street history. What will it bring this time? Again, as before, the phenomenon does not have to manifest at the next convergence. But, at the same time, and again, it is wise to take note.”
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/09/holy-shemitah-u-s-history-repeating-itself/"

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