Monday, July 20, 2015

How long between the peak and the crash?

I am using the Dow Jones as the reference.

The Dow reached a high of 11,522 on 1/7/2000.  The high in 2001 was 11,339 on 5/21/2001, and the crash occurred on 9/11/2001. The markets closed for a week and reopened on 9/17/2011 with a loss of 684 points (-7.13%).  If we use the 2001 high, it happened 110 days after the high.

Next, the Dow reached a high of 14,000 on 7/19/2007. The high in 2008 was 13,058 on 5/2/2008.  The crash occurred on 9/28/2008, losing 777 points (-6.98%).  If we use the 2008 high, it happened 149 days later.

The average is 130 days.  So if past is any sort of guide, and I am suggesting that it is, what is 130 days after May 19, 2015? It's September 26, but since that is a Saturday, lets use September 25, 2015.

So we can expect a stock market crash of at least 1200 points (-6.5%) on September 25, 2015, plus or minus 20 days.  So anytime between September 7, 2015 and October 15, 2015.  I've been predicting some big event on September 11, 2015 as the most likely day. If it doesn't happen on September 11, it will probably happen on September 17.  But it could occur anytime between September 7 or October 15.  I hope I am wrong.

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