Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The crash is happening now



















This is the Hang Seng Index (from Hong Kong).  The high was on June 24, 2015 when it reached 27,405.  Now it is at 23,517, a decline of 14.2%, which is officially a "market correction" (10% decline) and almost a "bear market" (20% decline).

The Shanghai SE Composite Index reached a high on June 5, 2015 of 5023. It had a slow decline until June 16, when it fell to 4887, and then it fell off the cliff. It is now at 3507, a decline of 31.2%.

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its all-time high on May 19, 2015 at 18,312. It is currently at 17,596, a decline of 4%.

The SP 500 reached its high on May 21, 2015 at 2130. It is currently at 2056, a decline of 3.5%.

While the Dow and SP500 aren't down that much in percentage terms, they have both had failed attempts to recover the high.  It's all down hill from here. We can just expect a slow decline from here until the big crash and recession officially begins, variously predicted as occurring on September 11, October 1, or October 20.

I have been rooting for a crash for a long time, as a way of cleaning out the dead wood and zombies.  But in the short term this will cause pain for a lot of people. If there are smart people in charge of the system, they should be engaged in fiscal and monetary policy now to ward off the harshness of the coming crash.  But of course the people in charge are idiots and never think a crash will occur again and don't see this coming and will only react after the fact.

I think I will start a countdown to doomsday, September 11.  Today is D minus 64.  The last time I did a countdown like this was for a supposed Mayan end of the world on December 21, 2012, which turned out to be nothing.  I am probably wrong here too, but it is fun to make predictions.

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Update: NYSE suspends all trading on a technical glitch.

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