2015-02-21 308000 2015-02-28 327000 2015-03-07 293000 2015-03-14 293000 2015-03-21 288000 2015-03-28 267000 2015-04-04 282000 2015-04-11 295000 2015-04-18 296000 2015-04-25 262000 2015-05-02 265000 2015-05-09 264000 2015-05-16 275000 2015-05-23 284000 2015-05-30 277000 2015-06-06 279000 2015-06-13 268000 2015-06-20 271000 2015-06-27 282000 2015-07-04 296000 2015-07-11 281000 2015-07-18 255000 2015-07-25 267000
Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/ICSA.txt
It bottomed out last week.
How does this compare to earlier cycles? It was at 259,000 on 2000-04-15, but it wasn't clear that it was in an uptrend until it hit 356,000 on 2000-11-15.
It was at 282,000 on 2006-01-28. It was 296,000 on 2007-01-13. It was 297,000 on 2007-05-12. It was 302,000 on 2007-09-22. I would say that it wasn't clear that it was in a recession until 2008-04-26 when it was at 370,000, more than 2 years after hitting bottom.
So there is magic number of about 90,000 from the low. We can pretty much ignore this until it breaks 350,000, which is a sign that the recession has begun. It could take a while.
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