The US finally hit $15 trillion in Debt Held By the Public on Feb 15, 2018. The exact number was 15,018,135,646,693.34. This is actually a bigger milestone than the $20 trillion National Debt because that includes the number held by the Social Security trustees, not that that isn't real debt, but it represents wealth to the holders, which are the general public.
Many many moons ago in 2013, in this really old post, I predicted that a "Junior Day of Reckoning" would occur when we hit $15 trillion, and that it would occur about December 31, 2015. So it took 2 years longer than I had predicted at that time. And it doesn't seem like there is any sort of wall, other than the fact that spending is suddenly skyrocketing.
When did we cross the $7.5 trillion debt held by the public number? On 9/15/2009. So it took exactly 8 years and 5 months. If it takes 8.5 years to double, we should be at $30 trillion held by the public on 8/15/2026.
We may need to start using floating point notation to represent it. So the debt held by the public in floating point notation is $15 x 10^12.
I wonder when the deficit will first cross $2 trillion per year. Maybe in FY 2020. But that is just a wild guess. We know that in a recession that government revenues drop and spending increases. $5 trillion in spending and $3 trillion in revenue doesn't seem out of the question in a couple of years.
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Venezuela launches the Petro
See http://failedevolution.blogspot.com/2018/02/venezuela-releases-824m-units-of-petro.html
Venezuela is beginning to sell 82.4 million Petros, which is a crypto-currency, each one tied to the price of a barrel of oil. It will have the currency code PTR. This is the first national crypto-currency, but it won't be the last. I predict that eventually every country will have its own, except for the US. In the US, each major bank and corporation will have its own.
Venezuela is beginning to sell 82.4 million Petros, which is a crypto-currency, each one tied to the price of a barrel of oil. It will have the currency code PTR. This is the first national crypto-currency, but it won't be the last. I predict that eventually every country will have its own, except for the US. In the US, each major bank and corporation will have its own.
2017 Financial Report of the US Government
See https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/finrep/fr/17frusg/02142018_FR(Final).pdf
The National Debt is currently (as of 2/20/18) at $20.76 trillion. This is done on a cash basis. Another way of looking at things is the financial report at the above link which includes expenses that have been incurred but not paid for yet, like pensions. It shows a Net Operating Cost in FY 2017 of $1.157 trillion. It also shows the net worth of the Federal government at a negative $20.4 trillion, which is actually similar to the national debt.
The most interesting thing about it is how it projects the national debt in the year 2090 and later. Here are some quotes:
The debt-to-GDP ratio was 76 percent at the end of FY 2017, and under current policy is projected to be 74 percent in 2027, 136 percent in 2047, and 297 percent in 2092.
These debt-to-GDP projections are generally higher than the corresponding projections in both the FY 2016 and FY 2015 Financial Reports. For example, the debt-to-GDP projection for 2090 (the final projection year for the 2015 report) is 289 percent in this year’s Financial Report, 249 percent in the FY 2016 Financial Report, and 223 percent in the FY 2015 Financial Report.
While some post-cleanup monitoring and other long-term stewardship activities post-2092 are included in the liability, there are others the Department expects to continue beyond 2092 for which the costs cannot reasonably be estimated.
As a percent of GDP, interest spending was 1.4 percent in 2017, and under current policy is projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2037 and 15.1 percent in 2092.
Beginning in 2022, cost exceeds total income, and combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves diminish until they become depleted in 2034. After trust fund reserve depletion, continuing income is sufficient to support expenditures at a level of 77 percent of program cost for the rest of 2034, declining to 73 percent for 2091.
Interjection - my comments. I don't think Social Security can be cut in 2034. If they try, it will be a national insurrection, so good luck with that. All the numbers after 2034 are thus suspect.
I have previously speculated that 5% is about the maximum interest spending that can be achieved before the whole things starts to fall apart, with defaults or hyperinflation. This report indicates that 2037 is when this will occur.
It is fun to speculate about what life will be like in 2092. But I think that sometime in the period of 2034 to 2037, that the system will fall apart.
The National Debt is currently (as of 2/20/18) at $20.76 trillion. This is done on a cash basis. Another way of looking at things is the financial report at the above link which includes expenses that have been incurred but not paid for yet, like pensions. It shows a Net Operating Cost in FY 2017 of $1.157 trillion. It also shows the net worth of the Federal government at a negative $20.4 trillion, which is actually similar to the national debt.
The most interesting thing about it is how it projects the national debt in the year 2090 and later. Here are some quotes:
The debt-to-GDP ratio was 76 percent at the end of FY 2017, and under current policy is projected to be 74 percent in 2027, 136 percent in 2047, and 297 percent in 2092.
These debt-to-GDP projections are generally higher than the corresponding projections in both the FY 2016 and FY 2015 Financial Reports. For example, the debt-to-GDP projection for 2090 (the final projection year for the 2015 report) is 289 percent in this year’s Financial Report, 249 percent in the FY 2016 Financial Report, and 223 percent in the FY 2015 Financial Report.
While some post-cleanup monitoring and other long-term stewardship activities post-2092 are included in the liability, there are others the Department expects to continue beyond 2092 for which the costs cannot reasonably be estimated.
As a percent of GDP, interest spending was 1.4 percent in 2017, and under current policy is projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2037 and 15.1 percent in 2092.
Beginning in 2022, cost exceeds total income, and combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves diminish until they become depleted in 2034. After trust fund reserve depletion, continuing income is sufficient to support expenditures at a level of 77 percent of program cost for the rest of 2034, declining to 73 percent for 2091.
Interjection - my comments. I don't think Social Security can be cut in 2034. If they try, it will be a national insurrection, so good luck with that. All the numbers after 2034 are thus suspect.
I have previously speculated that 5% is about the maximum interest spending that can be achieved before the whole things starts to fall apart, with defaults or hyperinflation. This report indicates that 2037 is when this will occur.
It is fun to speculate about what life will be like in 2092. But I think that sometime in the period of 2034 to 2037, that the system will fall apart.
Friday, February 9, 2018
The dam is breaking
The national debt has been frozen at just under $20.5 trillion for months. Now that the budget deal has passed, the debt is going to increase like mad.
Here is the current level:
It is going to go up at least $100 billion per month from now until the whole system turns into a supernova. It will be noteworthy only when the debt increases less than this.
Thursday, February 8, 2018
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Military Diet, Day 3: Completion
Weight: 233.2 lbs
Day 3 Breakfast
large apple: 130
2 slices cheese: 220
boiled egg: 70
5 crackers: 60
coffee w/creamer: 10
Total: 390
I forgot to post an update. I went way over on Day 3.
Ending weight (2/8 AM): 234.4
So, the net result was that I lost 1.4 lbs over 3 days, and I sure didn't follow it strictly. But if I lost 1.4 lbs every week I would be happy. The rule of the military diet is that you have to wait at least 3 days before doing it again. So I will do this again next week.
Day 3 Breakfast
large apple: 130
2 slices cheese: 220
boiled egg: 70
5 crackers: 60
coffee w/creamer: 10
Total: 390
I forgot to post an update. I went way over on Day 3.
Ending weight (2/8 AM): 234.4
So, the net result was that I lost 1.4 lbs over 3 days, and I sure didn't follow it strictly. But if I lost 1.4 lbs every week I would be happy. The rule of the military diet is that you have to wait at least 3 days before doing it again. So I will do this again next week.
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Military Diet, Day 2: Balance In the Force
The theme of Day 2 is balance, and the symbol is the egg.
Weight: 234.4 lbs
Day 2 - Breakfast
Ice Cream - Haagen-Dazs, 3.6 oz: 240 calories
1 banana: 105 calories
1 egg (hard-boiled): 70 calories
Total: 415 calories: 415 calories
Day 2 - Late Breakfast 10:30
I was given a breakfast burrito, eggs and sausage, so good, I couldn't turn it down.
It was about 6 ounces. Estimated calories: 500
Day 2 - Afternoon Snack (4:30)
I was so hungry I decided to finally eat lunch, which was supposed to be a cup of cottage cheese and 5 saltine crackers. I ate the whole container and about 20 crackers.
Cottage Cheese (16 oz) - 440
Crakers (20) - 320
Total: 760
Day 2 - Late Night Snack
Yogurt, small container, 150
Total for Day 2: 1825
Weight: 234.4 lbs
Day 2 - Breakfast
Ice Cream - Haagen-Dazs, 3.6 oz: 240 calories
1 banana: 105 calories
1 egg (hard-boiled): 70 calories
Total: 415 calories: 415 calories
Day 2 - Late Breakfast 10:30
I was given a breakfast burrito, eggs and sausage, so good, I couldn't turn it down.
It was about 6 ounces. Estimated calories: 500
Day 2 - Afternoon Snack (4:30)
I was so hungry I decided to finally eat lunch, which was supposed to be a cup of cottage cheese and 5 saltine crackers. I ate the whole container and about 20 crackers.
Cottage Cheese (16 oz) - 440
Crakers (20) - 320
Total: 760
Day 2 - Late Night Snack
Yogurt, small container, 150
Total for Day 2: 1825
Monday, February 5, 2018
Military Diet, Day 1: A New Beginning
The Military Diet is my favorite diet. Every time I have tried it, I lost several pounds. It isn't easy, it takes discipline. So here goes, I will document what I eat, and the cost for 3 days. I'm going to buy everything I eat just for this, and so I can determine the exact cost and calorie count.
This is way too much detail and nobody cares, but I would be interested if someone else put this much detail up, and besides it holds me accountable.
Starting weight: 235.8 lbs
Day 1 - Purchase #1, King Soopers
1-lb box of saltines with 160 crackers (12 calories per cracker), $0.99
Rockstar sugar-free (0 calories), $1.25
Tuna w/oil, 5 oz (140 calories), $0.79
Jif To Go Peanut Butter with 8 cups, (250 calories per cup), $2.99
large Grapefruit, 1.24 lbs @1.29/lb (9 calories per ounce), $1.60
Total cost, w/tax, $7.72
Day 1 - Breakfast
6 crackers: 72 calories
1 cup peanut butter: 250 calories
1/2 grapefruit: 72 calories
coffee with creamer: 10 calories
Total: 400 calories
Day 1 - Lunch
7 crackers: 84 calories
Tuna: 140 calories
Total: 220 calories
Day 1: Snack
This wasn't on the menu but I was so hungry that I made more crackers and peanut butter and the other half of the grapefruit. 400 calories
Day 1 - Purchase #2, Safeway
Cottage Cheese (16 oz), $ 1.99
Ice Cream (Haagen-Dazs Dulce de Leche, 3.6 oz), $1.17
Chicken & Vegetable pouch, $4.99
Yogurt, $0.75
Bananas, 1.85 lbs @ 0.69 = $1.28
Green beans, 1.98 lbs @ 2.49 = $4.93
Gala apples, 1.16 lbs @ 1.49 = $1.73
Total cost w/tax: $16.84
Day 1 - Dinner
Chicken breast (6 oz): 320 cal
Green peppers (1 oz): 20 calories
Green beans (1 lb): 60 calories
Olive oil and butter sauce: 400 calories
I skipped the ice cream and fruit since I ate so much else.
Total dinner: 800 calories
I roasted the chicken breast and green beans. The butter certainly wasn't on the plan, but it made it a gourmet feast. I had to force myself to finish all the green beans.
Total for the day. 1820 calories
This is way too much detail and nobody cares, but I would be interested if someone else put this much detail up, and besides it holds me accountable.
Starting weight: 235.8 lbs
Day 1 - Purchase #1, King Soopers
1-lb box of saltines with 160 crackers (12 calories per cracker), $0.99
Rockstar sugar-free (0 calories), $1.25
Tuna w/oil, 5 oz (140 calories), $0.79
Jif To Go Peanut Butter with 8 cups, (250 calories per cup), $2.99
large Grapefruit, 1.24 lbs @1.29/lb (9 calories per ounce), $1.60
Total cost, w/tax, $7.72
Day 1 - Breakfast
6 crackers: 72 calories
1 cup peanut butter: 250 calories
1/2 grapefruit: 72 calories
coffee with creamer: 10 calories
Total: 400 calories
Day 1 - Lunch
7 crackers: 84 calories
Tuna: 140 calories
Total: 220 calories
Day 1: Snack
This wasn't on the menu but I was so hungry that I made more crackers and peanut butter and the other half of the grapefruit. 400 calories
Day 1 - Purchase #2, Safeway
Cottage Cheese (16 oz), $ 1.99
Ice Cream (Haagen-Dazs Dulce de Leche, 3.6 oz), $1.17
Chicken & Vegetable pouch, $4.99
Yogurt, $0.75
Bananas, 1.85 lbs @ 0.69 = $1.28
Green beans, 1.98 lbs @ 2.49 = $4.93
Gala apples, 1.16 lbs @ 1.49 = $1.73
Total cost w/tax: $16.84
Day 1 - Dinner
Chicken breast (6 oz): 320 cal
Green peppers (1 oz): 20 calories
Green beans (1 lb): 60 calories
Olive oil and butter sauce: 400 calories
I skipped the ice cream and fruit since I ate so much else.
Total dinner: 800 calories
I roasted the chicken breast and green beans. The butter certainly wasn't on the plan, but it made it a gourmet feast. I had to force myself to finish all the green beans.
Total for the day. 1820 calories
Friday, February 2, 2018
The deficit is exploding
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/02/spending-deal-deficit-hawks-congress-384968
Within inches of a handshake agreement, the GOP’s most recent proposal is said to be more than $300 billion, raising defense caps by $80 billion and domestic caps by $63 billion over each of the next two years.
In December, nearly every Republican voted for a massive tax bill that will cost $1.5 trillion over a decade.
By the time the fiscal year is over, GOP leaders may have negotiated upward of $2 trillion in new spending, most adding directly to the deficit.
Besides the tax cut and the spending deal, lawmakers are also on the cusp of approving $130 billion in disaster relief. There are also separate talks of a pensions relief package, worth as much as $60 billion, as well as funding for community health centers. And a Trump-backed $200 billion infrastructure package may be around the corner.
This is very confusing, because some of this is over 10 years, and some of it is over 2 years, and some of it is a one-shot deal. Still, the trend is way higher, and that is one reason why inflation is coming back.
But who cares about the deficit since we never have to pay it back, right?
Within inches of a handshake agreement, the GOP’s most recent proposal is said to be more than $300 billion, raising defense caps by $80 billion and domestic caps by $63 billion over each of the next two years.
In December, nearly every Republican voted for a massive tax bill that will cost $1.5 trillion over a decade.
By the time the fiscal year is over, GOP leaders may have negotiated upward of $2 trillion in new spending, most adding directly to the deficit.
Besides the tax cut and the spending deal, lawmakers are also on the cusp of approving $130 billion in disaster relief. There are also separate talks of a pensions relief package, worth as much as $60 billion, as well as funding for community health centers. And a Trump-backed $200 billion infrastructure package may be around the corner.
This is very confusing, because some of this is over 10 years, and some of it is over 2 years, and some of it is a one-shot deal. Still, the trend is way higher, and that is one reason why inflation is coming back.
But who cares about the deficit since we never have to pay it back, right?
The top was on Jan 26
The Dow Jones hit 26,616.71 on Jan 26, 2018. It is down over 600 points since then. So Jan 26 appears to be the top. I've called the top many times before and been wrong, but this appears to really be it.
We will certainly have a recession start within 2 years. I like the date of Sept 11, 2018, which is a Tuesday.
We will certainly have a recession start within 2 years. I like the date of Sept 11, 2018, which is a Tuesday.
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