2017 Financial Report of the US Government

See https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/finrep/fr/17frusg/02142018_FR(Final).pdf

The National Debt is currently (as of 2/20/18) at $20.76 trillion.  This is done on a cash basis.  Another way of looking at things is the financial report at the above link which includes expenses that have been incurred but not paid for yet, like pensions.  It shows a Net Operating Cost in FY 2017 of $1.157 trillion.  It also shows the net worth of the Federal government at a negative $20.4 trillion, which is actually similar to the national debt.

The most interesting thing about it is how it projects the national debt in the year 2090 and later.  Here are some quotes:

The debt-to-GDP ratio was 76 percent at the end of FY 2017, and under current policy is projected to be 74 percent in 2027, 136 percent in 2047, and 297 percent in 2092.

These debt-to-GDP projections are generally higher than the corresponding projections in both the FY 2016 and FY 2015 Financial Reports. For example, the debt-to-GDP projection for 2090 (the final projection year for the 2015 report) is 289 percent in this year’s Financial Report, 249 percent in the FY 2016 Financial Report, and 223 percent in the FY 2015 Financial Report.

While some post-cleanup monitoring and other long-term stewardship activities post-2092 are included in the liability, there are others the Department expects to continue beyond 2092 for which the costs cannot reasonably be estimated.

As a percent of GDP, interest spending was 1.4 percent in 2017, and under current policy is projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2037 and 15.1 percent in 2092.

Beginning in 2022, cost exceeds total income, and combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves diminish until they become depleted in 2034. After trust fund reserve depletion, continuing income is sufficient to support expenditures at a level of 77 percent of program cost for the rest of 2034, declining to 73 percent for 2091.

Interjection - my comments.  I don't think Social Security can be cut in 2034.  If they try, it will be a national insurrection, so good luck with that.  All the numbers after 2034 are thus suspect.

I have previously speculated that 5% is about the maximum interest spending that can be achieved before the whole things starts to fall apart, with defaults or hyperinflation.  This report indicates that 2037 is when this will occur.

It is fun to speculate about what life will be like in 2092.  But I think that sometime in the period of 2034 to 2037, that the system will fall apart.