Google is building the city of tomorrow in Toronto

Sidewalk Labs
Sidewalk Toronto

The Fed just caused a recession

The Federal Reserve just dropped rates by 0.25% to 2.10%.  This just caused a recession which will show up in about 3 months.  The NBER will say that November 2019 was when the recession officially started.

But .. but.. but.. the Fed is trying to prevent a recession and extend the recovery.  Wrong.  First of all, there are banks (and old people) who depend on interest to live.  When you cut their income, they will have to cut expenses to make up for it.  Once someone starts to cut spending, it will ripple through the economy in a butterfly effect.

Second, expectations become reality.  The Fed has lots of data that we don't know about.  If they are worried, then Joe Blow on Main Street will worry too.

Third, they just caved to the bond vigilantes. The Fed has to be macho and take control of the situation.  Instead they are listening to the little whiny brats, who will never be happy.  Its like negotiating with terrorists.  Just say no.  The Fed has already shown that they have no spine.  Now they will be forced to cut rates again and again and again.  And it won't do any good.

The party is over.  The only "cure" now is massive government spending to get us out of the recession.  Oops, I am a year early.  But I guarantee that is where we will be headed in a year.

See also: Rate-Cuts Aren't Going To Be Insurance; They Are The Alarm Bells
Do rate cuts cause recessions?

Update:
The Dow reacts by dropping 333 points.  They wanted a 50-basis point rate cut.

The Detroit Race Riot of 1943

The summer of 1943 found the United States embroiled in the worst war in world history and the industrial might of Detroit was playing an integral part in winning it. Common during times of war, domestic hatreds and tensions grip entire communities, bringing out the best and worst even among allies. At a time when Americans were pulling together to defeat its enemies, societal problems of long standing chose a bad time to rear its ugly head in Detroit. In June of 1943 Detroit suffered one of the worst race riots in the country’s history, forcing America to take a long, hard introspective look at itself.
http://www.detroits-great-rebellion.com/Detroit---1943.html

Cities on the Decline

There are a few cities that used to be great but are on the decline.  To fit into this category I am looking for cities that had populations of at least 500,000 in 1950 and have decline at least 20% since then.  What cities match this?

Cleveland, Ohio had a peak population of 914,000 in 1950.  It had 397,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 385,000 in 2017.

St Louis, Missouri had a peak population of 857,000 in 1950.  It had 319,000 in 2010.

Baltimore, Maryland had a peak population of 950,000 in 1950.  It had 621,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 612,000 as of 2017.

Detroit, Michigan had a peak population of 1,850,000 in 1950.  It had 714,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 659,000 as of 2018.

Are there any other cities that are similar?

Washington DC had a peak population of 802,000 in 1950.  It dropped to a low of 572,000 in 2000 before recovering and now as of 2017 has 694,000.  So it was following the same trends but reversed itself.

Chicago, IL, (just the city, not the metro area) had a peak population of 3,621,000 in 1950. It dropped to 2,696,000 as of 2010. Its current population is estimated at 2,716,000 as of 2017.

Philadelphia, PA, had a peak population of 2,072,000 in 1950.  It had 1,526,000 as of 2010 and 1,581,000 as of 2014, so it is starting to recover a little bit.

Cincinnati, OH had a peak population of 504,000 in 1950.  It had 297,000 in 2010 and 303,000 in 2018.

Buffalo, NY had a peak population of 580,000 in 1950.  It had 261,000 in 2010 and 257,000 in 2016.

New Orleans, LA had a peak population of 628,000 in 1960.  It had 485,000 in 2000.  The Hurricane Katrina hit in 2006 causing a mass evacuation.  It had 344,000 in 2010 and is estimated to have 391,000 in 2018.

Pittsburgh PA had a peak population of 677,000 in 1950.  It had 306,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 301,000 in 2018.

Boston, MA had a peak population of 801,000 in 1950.  It had 621,000 in 2010 and is currently estimated to have 695,000 in 2018.  So it has recovered a bit.

Milwaukee, WI had a peak population of 741,000 in 1960.  It had 595,000 in 2010 and 592,000 in 2018.  This is right at 80%, so it isn't quite as bad as some of the others.

Minneapolis, MN had a peak population of 521,000 in 1950.  It had 383,000 in 2010 and 422,000 in 2017.  It has recovered a bit.

================================
I think that is the complete list.  14 Cities.  But take off the 5 that aren't as bad.  And so here is the list (in no particular order) of the 9 worst cities in the United States.

Cleveland
St Louis
Baltimore
Detroit
Chicago
Cincinnati
Buffalo
New Orleans
Pittsburgh

What is it about these 9 cities that is so toxic?  Sure, each of them has unique circumstances, but there must be some commonalities.  And you could object that the metro areas of most of these cities is still increasing, and the inhabitants just wanted to move to the suburbs.  But why is the core city so bad?  I will write some more articles exploring this question.

===========================
Here is an article on Buffalo:  https://www.city-journal.org/html/can-buffalo-ever-come-back-13050.html

Pittsburgh - https://www.huffpost.com/entry/pittsburghs-hill-district-dream_b_1669867

St Louis - What derailed growth in St Louis

Cincinnati is starting to recover.  See How Cincinnati Salvaged the Nation's Most Dangerous Neighborhood.  But also see Spike in homicides in Cincinnati has community, leaders baffled.  "Eight homicides in the past 10 days is hard to get your head around."  So Cincinnati doesn't get off the list yet.

The Scariest Place in America

 

Leakin Park.   A wilderness area right next to a high-crime ghetto is the perfect dumping ground for bodies.  79 bodies have been found here , although only 3 of them have been after 2012.  

Baltimore is the worst major city in America

In May, the New York Times Magazine ran a cover story called, “The Tragedy of Baltimore.” [See https://www.propublica.org/article/the-tragedy-of-baltimore]. The story details how, in the wake of the 2015 riots — or “uprising,” in the view of those who imagine the torching of a neighborhood CVS and the intentional sabotage of the firefighters’ equipment to be revolutionary actions — Baltimore went from bad to horrible: “nothing less than a failure of order and governance the likes of which few American cities have seen in years.” 
 By any measure of systemic urban collapse, Baltimore is, as Trump said, “very dangerous  and filthy.” Among the largest 30 American cities, Baltimore has the highest crime rate, and is a close second to Detroit for the highest rate of violent crime. But for murders, Baltimore is second to no other city, with more than 50 homicides per 100,000 people. That puts Charm City in the ranks of Jamaica, Venezuela and El Salvador in terms of lethality.
https://nypost.com/2019/07/28/trump-is-right-about-baltimore-and-the-democrats-know-it/

But in the years that followed, Baltimore, by most standards, became a worse place. In 2017, it recorded 342 murders — its highest per-capita rate ever, more than double Chicago’s, far higher than any other city of 500,000 or more residents and, astonishingly, a larger absolute number of killings than in New York, a city 14 times as populous.
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-tragedy-of-baltimore

The abandoned Astrodome

I recently did a blog post about Astroworld in Houston.  Here is a related video about the Astrodome, which is right across the highway.

Neom

Neom is a futuristic city planned in the northwest part of Saudi Arabia, including these features:

• 1. Flying Taxis: Scientists might take a flying taxi to work. “Driving is just for fun, no longer for transportation (e.g. driving Ferrari next to the coast with a nice view),” planning documents show.
• 2. Cloud Seeding: The desert won’t always feel like the desert. “Cloud seeding” could make it rain.
• 3. Robot Maids: Don’t worry about household chores. While scientists are at work, their homes would be cleaned by robot maids.
• 4. State-of-the-Art Medical Facilities: Scientists would work on a project to modify the human genome to make people stronger.
• 5. World Class Restaurants: There would be fine dining galore in a city with the “highest rate of Michelin-starred restaurants per inhabitant.”
• 6. Dinosaur Robots: Residents could visit a Jurassic Park-style island of robot reptiles.
• 7. Glow-in-the-Dark Sand: The crown prince wants a beach that glows in the dark, like the face of a watch.
• 8. Alcohol: Alcohol is banned in the rest of Saudi Arabia. But it likely won’t be here, say people familiar with the plan.
• 9. Robot Martial Arts: Robots would do more than just clean your house. They also could spar head to head in a “robo-cage fight,” one of many sports on offer.
• 10. Security: Cameras, drones and facial-recognition technology are planned to track everyone at all times.
• 11. Moon: A giant artificial moon would light up each night. One proposal suggests it could live-stream images from outer space, acting as an iconic landmark.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-26/mbs-goes-elon-musk-steroids-seeks-flying-cars-electric-dinosaurs-robot-maids-and

I hope it works, but it has some similarities to 3 other futuristic cities that we don't hear much about anymore:  Jazan Economic City, King Abdullah Economic City, and Masdar City.

Social Security Projections through 2095

The Social Security expenditures come from https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2019/lr6g8.html .

The Social Security trust fund will be depleted in 2035, so it isn't really possible to project anything after that.  But it is fun to make wild speculative guesses about what the future will be like.

Year	Soc Sec	GDP
2019	1,058	21,485
2020	1,118	22,523
2021	1,188	23,558
2022	1,265	24,616
2023	1,348	25,735
2024	1,438	26,907
2025	1,533	28,109
2026	1,634	29,349
2027	1,742	30,637
2028	1,857	31,972
2029	1,973	33,363
2030	2,093	34,800
2031	2,218	36,304
2032	2,349	37,873
2033	2,484	39,501
2034	2,622	41,199
2035	2,764	42,963
2036	2,911	44,793
2037	3,067	46,700
2038	3,230	48,689
2039	3,399	50,772
2040	3,575	52,965
2041	3,757	55,249
2042	3,946	57,640
2043	4,146	60,160
2044	4,357	62,794
2045	4,581	65,548
2046	4,819	68,433
2047	5,073	71,444
2048	5,345	74,580
2049	5,632	77,863
2050	5,939	81,297
2051	6,267	84,859
2052	6,617	88,573
2053	6,991	92,459
2054	7,388	96,499
2055	7,813	100,694
2056	8,265	105,057
2057	8,747	109,603
2058	9,260	114,336
2059	9,804	119,258
2060	10,379	124,381
2061	10,986	129,714
2062	11,627	135,263
2063	12,304	141,040
2064	13,018	147,056
2065	13,773	153,328
2066	14,573	159,869
2067	15,422	166,693
2068	16,321	173,816
2069	17,273	181,256
2070	18,282	189,023
2071	19,346	197,138
2072	20,465	205,621
2073	21,646	214,491
2074	22,892	223,773
2075	24,202	233,480
2076	25,572	243,631
2077	27,004	254,245
2078	28,497	265,335
2079	30,050	276,917
2080	31,674	289,008
2081	33,381	301,643
2082	35,181	314,834
2083	37,080	328,601
2084	39,086	342,964
2085	41,214	357,936
2086	43,486	373,534
2087	45,922	389,785
2088	48,537	406,707
2089	51,354	424,320
2090	54,389	442,655
2091	57,655	461,750
2092	61,160	481,628
2093	64,912	502,329
2094	68,916	523,883
2095	73,175	546,331

2019 Social Security Report

The new 2019 Social Security Report is out.  Key findings:

Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income starting in 2020, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2034 and the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2052. In last year’s report, the projected reserve depletion years were 2034 for OASDI, 2034 for OASI, and 2032 for DI.

This is great news.  SS is now solvent until 2035, which was better than 2034 when I last reported on this in 2017.

What about the 75-year deficit?
The open-group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $13.9 trillion in present value and is $0.7 trillion more than the measured level of $13.2 trillion a year ago.
In 2017, this number was $12.5 trillion and in 2016 it was $11.4 trillion.

What does the 75-year deficit number mean?  Not much, although the higher it is, the less likely that SS will be solvent in the long run.

What happens in 2035, when the trust fund runs out?
The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2034, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI scheduled benefits.

Medicare Projected Expenditures Through 2093

This source of this is a zip file linked from here: https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/index.html
The name of the specific spreadsheet is: "HI and SMI Incurred Expenditures as a Percentage of the Gross Domestic Product.xls".  I rounded everything to the nearest billion. This doesn't include Medicaid.  Here are the projected expenditures through 2093.  So in 2093, the GDP will be $502 trillion and total Medicare expenditures will be $32 trillion.  If we make it that far as a civilization. 

As a percent of GDP, this rises from 3.73% in 2019 to 4.08% in 2022, 5.11% in 2029, and 5.91% in 2039.  Then it increases very slowly to 6.0% in 2046, and hits 6.4% in 2072 and goes up to 6.48% in 2078 and stops increasing there.  I don't know why costs are rising so high now and will stop rising as much after 2040.

The Medicare trust fund will run out in 2026, so Medicare expenditures really should be capped at about 4% of GDP after that point.  We can't really project after 2026, so everything after that point is science fiction.  But I like big irrelevant numbers far out in the future so here you go.

	Total
Year	Medicare	GDP
2019	801	21,485
2020	858	22,523
2021	928	23,558
2022	1,004	24,616
2023	1,083	25,735
2024	1,169	26,907
2025	1,259	28,109
2026	1,354	29,349
2027	1,452	30,637
2028	1,591	31,972
2029	1,703	33,363
2030	1,818	34,800
2031	1,936	36,304
2032	2,058	37,873
2033	2,183	39,501
2034	2,313	41,199
2035	2,447	42,963
2036	2,585	44,793
2037	2,723	46,700
2038	2,860	48,689
2039	2,999	50,772
2040	3,142	52,965
2041	3,288	55,249
2042	3,436	57,640
2043	3,591	60,160
2044	3,753	62,794
2045	3,927	65,548
2046	4,108	68,433
2047	4,295	71,444
2048	4,488	74,580
2049	4,689	77,863
2050	4,901	81,297
2051	5,122	84,859
2052	5,351	88,573
2053	5,592	92,459
2054	5,847	96,499
2055	6,117	100,694
2056	6,402	105,057
2057	6,698	109,603
2058	7,005	114,336
2059	7,324	119,258
2060	7,658	124,381
2061	8,008	129,714
2062	8,374	135,263
2063	8,758	141,040
2064	9,162	147,056
2065	9,589	153,328
2066	10,032	159,869
2067	10,492	166,693
2068	10,973	173,816
2069	11,478	181,256
2070	12,008	189,023
2071	12,565	197,138
2072	13,150	205,621
2073	13,765	214,491
2074	14,403	223,773
2075	15,062	233,480
2076	15,744	243,631
2077	16,449	254,245
2078	17,183	265,335
2079	17,945	276,917
2080	18,738	289,008
2081	19,560	301,643
2082	20,408	314,834
2083	21,283	328,601
2084	22,189	342,964
2085	23,134	357,936
2086	24,120	373,534
2087	25,152	389,785
2088	26,237	406,707
2089	27,382	424,320
2090	28,584	442,655
2091	29,842	461,750
2092	31,158	481,628
2093	32,532	502,329

The Dominican Republican Deathtrap

https://nypost.com/2019/07/24/inside-the-reports-of-deaths-sickness-that-have-consumed-dominican-republic/
At least 36 Americans have died on the island since January 2018 — and many more have been plagued by “nightmare” illnesses, The Post has found. That death total — which includes everything from unexplained illnesses to drownings to cosmetic surgery gone bad — is even higher than reports have previously suggested.

This sounds like the plot of a bizarre horror film.  How many ways can someone die in the Dominican Republic?  You could drink poisoned liquor from the minibar.  Your could have respiratory failure because your room was just fumigated.  You could get food poisoning.  You could drown in the pool.  You could be the victim of a traffic accident.  You could fall off the boat at sea.  You could be viciously assaulted by a nice couple that you met at the pool.  You (female) could be raped by a resort employee.  You could die during cosmetic surgery.  The list goes on and on.

The case against a collapse in 2024

This comes from Karl Denninger:
The immediate problem we face is that by 2024 at present trends Medicare will not be able to pay. To try to pay will cause the federal deficit to roughly DOUBLE on an instant basis. We will have a roughly $5 trillion budget at that point BUT ONLY BE COLLECTING $3 TRILLION in revenues, and this assumes NO RECESSION! Ha! You're going to get one all right, and it's going to be monstrous; we MIGHT actually see $5 trillion spend on TWO trillion in revenue, or a roughly sixty percent deficit ratio. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=236403

I thought that Medicare was supposed to last until 2026 and even then the deficit would only be $50 billion per year, but I haven't read the most recent 2019 report available here:  https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/index.html  So someone (me) should read this and summarize it.

And I thought that that US wouldn't see a $2 trillion deficit until 2036 based on current projections. And in that year revenue would be $7.7 trillion and expenditures $9.7 trillion so a $2 trillion deficit doesn't sound so bad with those numbers.  But I also thought that we wouldn't see a $1 trillion deficit until 2022 and with the new budget deal this will happen next year, in 2020.  So we need to wait and see what the new budget deal actually is, and see how CBO scores it, and then critique that.

I also haven't factored in a recession, since I am basically using CBO's numbers and extending them and they haven't factored in a recession.  I am basically assuming a 4% growth in nominal GDP forever. The thing to do would be to look at the last few recessions and see how much revenue dropped as a percent from the previous years.

So for now, I am going to assume that the Good Times will Roll and call Karl a kook.  But I will also take a look at it again in six months or so.

Everything is f*cked

See https://thehardestscience.com/2016/08/11/everything-is-fucked-the-syllabus/

In a much-discussed article at Slate, social psychologist Michael Inzlicht told a reporter, “Meta-analyses are f*cked” (Engber, 2016). What does it mean, in science, for something to be f*cked? F*cked needs to mean more than that something is complicated or must be undertaken with thought and care, as that would be trivially true of everything in science. In this class we will go a step further and say that something is f*cked if it presents hard conceptual challenges to which implementable, real-world solutions for working scientists are either not available or routinely ignored in practice.

Budget deal reached

"I am pleased to announce that a deal has been struck with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - on a two-year Budget and Debt Ceiling, with no poison pills," Trump tweeted shortly after congressional leaders signed off on the final agreement in a Monday evening conference call. "This was a real compromise in order to give another big victory to our Great Military and Vets!" 

The agreement, should it pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law, would remove twin crises staring down the White House and lawmakers in the looming spending cuts and debt ceiling deadline, clearing the decks on both until after the 2020 election. While leaders in both chambers will still need to muster the votes for passage, the fact that all four signed off on the deal and a Trump endorsement followed bodes well for its future, people involved say. Pelosi, in a joint statement with Schumer touting the boosts in spending for Democratic priorities, said the House will move quickly to pass the legislation before the chamber departs on July 26 for a six-week recess.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/22/politics/budget-deal/index.html

Ok, crisis is over.  Now the fun will begin in a couple of weeks.  We will get to watch the national debt, which has been stuck at about $22 trillion since the beginning of the year, soar to new heights.  It could increase by almost a trillion dollars in just a few weeks.

MMT Policy is a Ponzi Scheme

MMT is a free lunch program for the Oligarchy. Financial wealth and public debt grow in lockstep and the fabulous financial wealth in the USA is roughly equal to humongous public debt ($22 trillion and counting). The Profit Law explains how billionaires are able to accumulate that much money and why they can buy all the bonds the Treasury issues and cash in the ultra-safe interest that is reliably taxed from WeThePeople as long as the debt is rolled over. This can function for a very long time but eventually ― well beyond the time horizon of MMTers and their gullible audience ― the economy breaks down. This is not a risk but a mathematical certainty.#2 MMT policy is a Ponzi scheme that works only as long as public debt grows. But infinite growth is impossible on a finite planet. The risks explode as soon as debt growth slows down or reverses as it eventually must. The so-called free-market economy lives literally on borrowed time.
https://axecorg.blogspot.com/2019/07/bill-mitchell-wall-streets-hitman-keeps.html

I fully agree with the above statements, but I have a question.  Why is infinite growth impossible?  Why can't we go from $100 trillion in debt to $1 quadrillion and then keep adding zeros?  Maybe it is because the debt keeps going up but it represents real claims on real resources and the real resources are limited.  That is where we get inflation, but even with inflation resources don't respond to the price signals so we get more inflation which would then lead to hyperinflation. I could see that scenario, but we are a long,long ways away from inflation.  So would it be possible to try MMT for a short period of time and then stop it once inflation starts to pick up?  Or is it impossible to stop once it starts, like a snowball causing an avalanche?  That is probably the situation, but the tipping point seems pretty far out.  The "borrowed time" could be 50 years or more out.

13 Reasons Why the Moon Landing Was Fake

And here is the real reason.  Danny Torrance in the movie Shining represents our childhood belief in fairy tales.  And Room 237 represents the lunar landing, since the moon is 237,000 miles away.

Stanley Kubrick faked the whole thing, and sent coded messages in the Shining to admit it.

See also https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/luna/luna_apollomissions10.htm

Lunar Landing Fiction

I consider it highly unlikely that we went to the moon.  But even if we did, this account below is obviously pure fiction.

‘You’re cleared for take-off,’ Evans says to Armstrong and Aldrin on Eagle. ‘Roger. Understand. We’re number one on the runway,’ Aldrin jokes. He and Armstrong have been on the moon for more than 21 hours.

Mission Control have failed to find a solution for the broken switch, but Aldrin thinks he may have one. He is holding a chrome-bodied felt-tip pen in the hole. If it doesn’t work, or the ascent engine fails, they have no hope of rescue.

Above them in Columbia, Collins is sweating with nerves. ‘My secret terror for the last six months has been leaving them on the moon and returning to Earth alone,’ he said. He has practised flying Columbia home without his colleagues.

Aldrin starts a countdown: ‘9, 8, 7, 6, 5...proceed.’ The felt-tip pen works, Eagle’s ascent engine fires, explosive bolts release the ascent stage section from the landing gear and a guillotine severs power cables between the two. Clouds of dust surround the lunar module as it lifts off, leaving the legs on the surface of the moon. Aldrin sees the American flag fall over. Back on Earth, their families are crying with relief.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7222693/Broken-circuit-meant-men-moon-stranded-salvation-came-unlikely-form.html

=====================================
Supposedly there was only one woman in the control room of the lunar mission.  But who was it? There are 3 different accounts of the first or only woman on the Apollo mission.

With seconds left in the countdown, JoAnn Morgan knew there was no turning back. This was the 1960s; most of the NASA workforce was male and white, and women were not allowed to be at the controls. But on launch day, a sweltering Wednesday in July, she was there. The Apollo astronauts had made history, and as the only woman in the launch-control room, she had, too.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/07/joann-morgan-moon-landing-apollo/594370/

POPPY NORTHCUTT was serious, preoccupied by the lunar landing plans she checked over and over again for good measure. As an engineer for NASA’s mission planning and analysis support team, she was responsible for getting astronauts home from orbit and the moon during multiple Apollo missions. Her pioneering work ultimately contributed to the success of numerous lunar expeditions, all while she was fielding media attention for her historic role as the first woman working as an engineer inside mission control.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/07/inside-apollo-mission-control-seen-by-first-woman-engineer-poppy-northcutt/

The first footsteps on the moon belonged to two men, but they may never have made it there if not for Margaret Hamilton. The software engineer developed the onboard computer programs that powered NASA's Apollo missions, including the 1969 moon landing. So, it's only fitting that in honor of the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission, a portrait of the bespectacled pioneer reflected the light of the moon.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/19/us/apollo-11-margaret-hamilton-50th-anniversary-trnd/index.html

The SFST Conspiracy Theory

This is an interesting theory that I just heard about.  There was a woman with a PhD in Psychology named Dr. Marcelline Burns, who developed a theory in the 1970s that someone's alcohol level could be determined by making them do a few tests, like have them follow a flashlight with their eyes or walk a few steps along an invisible line.  Every police department in the country follows this theory, but it may be totally fraudulent, or at least junk science.  There is a lot more to say, but for now just google the name "Marcelline Burns".

Revised Military Diet

I have an idea for yet another diet, which basically the military diet modified with this principles.
1. Fast for at least 13 hours a night.
2. Any carbs, including fruit, should be eaten at breakfast only, except for vegetables.
3. Skip lunch and no snacks.
4. Add a little more fat.

I am taking the military diet and modifying it and I this is what I came up with.

DAY 1 Breakfast.  Make sure to fast for at least 13 hours since the last meal, so this may be at 10am or later.
1 grapefruit
1 slice of toast, with butter or peanut butter, no jelly
2 slices of bacon
2 eggs

Lunch - nothing

Dinner:
1 can tuna
3 oz hamburger
1 cup green beans
1 side salad with dressing
1 small greek yogurt

DAY 2 Breakfast.  Again, make sure to fast 13 hours.
1 banana
1 apple
1 slice of toast with butter or peanut butter
2 slices of bacon
2 eggs

Lunch - nothing

Dinner:
1 cup of cottage cheese
4 hot dogs (without bun)
1 cup of broccoli
1/2 cup of carrots
1 side salad with dressing
1 small greek yogurt

DAY 3 Breakfast.  Again, make sure to fast 13 hours.
1 banana
1 apple
1 slice of toast with butter or peanut butter
1 hard boiled egg
1 slice of cheese

Lunch - nothing

 Dinner:
1 cup of tuna
Side of vegetables
1 side salad with dressing
1 small greek yogurt

Anyways, that is what the basic menu would look like.  I would like to try it some time.

Ancient Chinese Strategies

The Art of War, written by Sun Tzu, is the the most influential strategy text in East Asian warfare and has influenced both Eastern and Western military thinking, business tactics, legal strategy and beyond.  The first chapter is called Laying Plans, and it opens with: "1. Sun Tzŭ said: The art of war is of vital importance to the State."

However, this isn't the only ancient military treatise.  There are Seven Military Classics (one of which is the Art of War).  None of the other 6 books have an English translation that is available on the internet.

The Book of Five Rings is a Japanese text written about 1645.  It is used by business leaders who find its discussion of conflict and taking the advantage to be relevant to their work in a business context. It has been made into a graphic novel.  It begins: "In the first week or so of the tenth month in the twentieth year of Kan'Ei, I climbed Mount Iwato in the Province of Higo on the Island of Kyushu. In my youth, I set my mind on the martial arts and had my first match when I was thirteen."

The Thirty-Six Stratagems are a collection of Chinese proverbs about the fields of politics, diplomacy and espionage.  The first strategy is called "Fool the Emperor to Cross the Sea" and it begins: "Moving about in the darkness and shadows, occupying isolated places, or hiding behind screens will only attract suspicious attention. To lower an enemy's guard you must act in the open hiding your true intentions under the guise of common every day activities."

On Guerilla Warfare was written by Mao Zedong (Tse-tung) in 1937 to explain an irregular type of warfare to be used against the Japanese.  It begins: "In a war of revolutionary character, guerrilla operations are a necessary part."  He also wrote Quotations from Chairman Mao, which was a little red book widely distributed during the Cultural Revolution during the 1960s and 1970s.  It begins:  The force at the core leading our cause forward is the Chinese Communist Party. The theoretical basis guiding our thinking is Marxism-Leninism.

The classic western book on military strategy is On War by Clausewitz.  It starts with: "WE propose to consider first the single elements of our subject, then each branch or part, and, last of all, the whole, in all its relations—therefore to advance from the simple to the complex."

Machiavelli also wrote a book called "The Art of War".   It starts with:
As I believe that it is possible for one to praise, without concern, any man after he is dead since every reason and supervision for adulation is lacking, I am not apprehensive in praising our own Cosimo Ruccelai, whose name is never remembered by me without tears, as I have recognized in him those parts which can be desired in a good friend among friends and in a citizen of his country.

Update: Thomas P.M. Barnett is a modern-day war strategist who taught at a Chinese thinktank called the Knowfar Institute, and he maintains a blog which he updates frequently.

D minus 77

The end of the world as we know it may occur on September 30, and that's only 77 days from now.  Actually, it may occur sooner, and we may only have until July 26 (8 business days) to stop it.  July 26 is when Congress goes on vacation until the end of August, and the Treasury may run out of money by the beginning of September.

But both sides have dug in.  Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Nancy Pelosi warning of the coming catastrophe. On Friday [July 12], Mnuchin sent a letter to Pelosi outlining the dire projection that in at least some of the scenarios modeled by Treasury, the US would run out of money by the beginning of September. He officially requested Congress raise the debt ceiling before the August recess.

Pelosi said no, not unless she gets more money for her pet projects. On Saturday night, Pelosi sent a letter to Mnuchin saying that while there was agreement on the need to address the debt limit, a spending agreement must also be reached "as soon as possible." Pelosi outlined her position that more money must be added to the domestic side of the agreement to finance a 2018 veterans care law.

The other problem is that even if Mnuchin and Pelosi get a deal, that Trump and Mulvaney may veto it.

As the world burns ...

Update:  Mnuchin is starting to panic.
The US government could 'run out of cash' and default in just eight WEEKS says Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin as he tells congressional leaders to raise the debt ceiling before recess... Mnuchin is telling Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell that Congress should raise the debt ceiling before leaving for its August recess otherwise the U.S. could default on its debts for the first time ever.
https://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2019/07/america-could-default-on-its-debts-in.html

Update (7/19):
Yesterday Pelosi and Mnuchin had a deal but now the deal is off.  And July 26 may be a hard deadline.
Democrats said Friday there are "nonstarters" in a new White House offer that includes $1.1 trillion in options to offset spending increases in a two-year agreement that would raise the budget caps and hike the debt limit.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/19/democrats-white-house-budget-deal-1604145

Deutsche Bank and Bear Stearns

In March 2008, Bear Stearns, a global investment bank, failed.  It took a $29 billion loan (which was later repaid in full) from the New York Fed to get JP Morgan Chase to buy it.   About 8,000 Bear Stearns workers were laid off, along with about 4,000 JP Morgan Chase employees.  But this wasn't even the main event, which occurred in September 2008.

In July 2019, Deutsche Bank (which is bigger than Bear Stearns was) announced it would close its investment banking business, laid off 18,000 workers, in an effort to cut billions in expenses.  Of course, this is an anomaly in the booming economy and not an indicator of more trouble ahead.

Default on September 30

Mick Mulvaney, your worst nightmare

The US will default on the national debt on September 30, and it will be glorious.

Washington is deadlocked ahead of a series of fiscal deadlines, time is growing scarce and it’s only going to get harder to avoid a debacle. Congressional leaders and the Trump administration have so far tried in vain to reach a deal that would avoid stiff budget cuts, a government shutdown and debt default in September. And now ugly splits in both parties are threatening to complicate the talks. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) countered that Democratic and Republican congressional leaders “could come up with a good budget agreement as long as President Trump stays out of the way. But he and Mr. [Mick] Mulvaney repeatedly mess things up with their ideological demands.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has told congressional leaders that the debt ceiling may need to be raised by mid-September, according to a source with direct knowledge; that would potentially decouple the debt limit from funding the government, which has a Sept. 30 deadline. Add in a long August recess, and the Senate is scheduled to be in session seven weeks and the House just six before the end of September. At the moment, there’s no meeting on the books for this month between the top congressional leaders and the Trump administration. And partisan tensions are likely only to crank up with special counsel Robert Mueller’s testimony in mid-July. It adds up to a dicey situation for those eager to avoid economic and political disaster.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/07/budget-deadlock-july-1399192

That's about 85 days from now.

The only way to stop the coming disaster is to make Mr Mick Mulvaney happy.  This is a massive game of chicken and Mulvaney isn't going to flinch.  Grab the popcorn.

Update:
Pelosi doesn't want to do a deal unless she can spend more money.
"Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday [June 13] that the Democratic-controlled House won’t pass must-do legislation to increase the government’s borrowing cap until the Trump administration agrees to boost spending limits on domestic programs. The California Democrat said she'll agree to increase the so-called debt ceiling, which is needed to avoid a market-cratering default on U.S. government obligations this fall. But she says she'll do so only after President Donald Trump agrees to lift tight "caps" that threaten both the Pentagon and domestic agencies with sweeping budget cuts. "When we lift the caps then we can talk about lifting the debt ceiling — that would have to come second or simultaneous, but not before lifting the caps," Pelosi told reporters.
https://www.federaltimes.com/management/budget/2019/06/13/pelosi-no-debt-increase-until-spending-limits-are-raised/

Update 2:
The X date could occur by mid-September.
The Bipartisan Policy Center now forecasts a risk that the debt limit “X Date” — the date when the federal government can no longer pay all of its bills in full and on time — could occur in the first half of September. This “X Date” risk falls earlier than BPC’s previous projection range, based on new data and analysis. Weaker-than-expected corporate income tax collections, in particular, seem to be related to the 2017 tax cuts. When combined with BPC’s increased ability to base estimates on its short-term model as the “X Date” draws nearer, updated analysis has unearthed the possibility of an inability to meet all federal obligations in the first half of September.
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/press-release/new-projection-debt-limit-x-date-could-arrive-in-september/

Update 3 (7/9/19):
Pelosi is holding up a possible deal.
Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., the appropriations chairman, told reporters this week he had relented to a request from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., that the committee wait for the overall funding numbers before proceeding with bills to set line-by-line spending levels at each federal agency. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., indicated on Tuesday those figures were no closer to coming out. The House has already passed most of its fiscal 2020 spending bills, but those measures will need to be reconciled with their Senate counterparts once the upper chamber takes action. Senate leaders have said they are taking a back seat while Democrats negotiate with the Trump administration, but Pelosi said no talks are scheduled. The two sides have met repeatedly, she said, and have nothing new to discuss. "I don’t see any reason to have a meeting,” Pelosi said. “They know where we are.” She added Democrats are waiting for a response from the administration, where talks are being headed up by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, and the two sides can move forward if there are any new developments.
So Shelby is waiting on Pelosi. And Pelosi is waiting on Mnuchin to agree to lift the caps.
https://www.govexec.com/management/2019/07/congress-remains-stalemate-shutdown-avoiding-deal-debt-ceiling-deadline-looms/158276/