Monday, August 12, 2019

2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook


See also: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55544

The CBO thinks that interest payments could be as much as 20% of total spending by 2049.  They are much more pessimistic than me.  I think interest payments will make up only 13% of total spending that year.

They also warn that in the worst-case scenario, called the "Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario", that the debt held by the public could be as much as 219% of GDP in 2049.

I really think that we as a country can't survive in any way recognizable to us today if the debt exceeds 150% of GDP.  When will that happen in their worst case scenario?  Probably somewhere between 2037 and 2043, call it 2040.  That's only 21 years from now.  Does anyone care? I don't think so.

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