Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Nomura sees Lehman parallels

Read the article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-06/nomura-we-are-headed-second-lehman-shock-selloff

What I find interesting is the parallels they see between the 2008 events and the current situation.  They see two possible matches:

1. Parallels starting with January 2006 and December 2016.  So this is almost exactly 11 years, being just one month short.  Lehman happened in September 2008, and 11 years less one month later brings us to August 2019, the current month.

2. Parallels starting with September 2007 and August 2018.  This is exactly the same time frame, just following a different measurement.

I've been trying to find patterns.  I have mentioned the 11 year cycle before:
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2016/12/11-year-cycle.html
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2018/04/are-we-in-11-year-cycle.html
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2018/11/eleven-year-cycle.html
https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2017/04/ten-or-eleven-year-financial-crisis.html

The last post mentioned a 10 or 11 year cycle, which I will repeat here:
September 22, 1966 - "To some extent, 1966 proved to be the first verification of the "financial instability hypothesis" that Minsky had been developing since the late 1950s." 
July 13, 1977 - financial crisis and blackout in New York City
September 23, 1998 - Long Term Capital Management crisis
September 15, 2008 - Lehman crisis
August 5, 2019 - Emerging financial crisis.  Despite the Fed dropping rates by 0.25% on July 31, the Dow drops 767 points on news of a trade war with China.

I would like to say that I predicted this, but my previous predictions focused around September 11, 2018, which obviously didn't happen.

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