Here are my assumptions:
1. The primary source comes from the CBO 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook.
2. The numbers for GDP comes from the Social Security projection. However, I assume that there is a recession every 11 years. I assume that this will cause the nominal GDP to remain the same for the year. I assume recessions will occur in 2021, 2032, and 2043.
3. Revenue numbers will fluctuate with GDP.
4. Social Security and Medicate projections are given as a percent of GDP, but I don't think they will actually drop. So I use the actual projections from the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
5. I assume that interest will never exceed 2.6% of the prior year public debt.
| Other | Other | Total | Debt | Debt % | ||||||||
| Year | Revenues | SS | Medicare | Health | Mand | Discret | Interest | Outlays | Deficit | Public | GDP | of GDP |
| 2019 | 3,511 | 1,058 | 801 | 344 | 559 | 1,354 | 382 | 4,497 | -986 | 16,737 | 21,485 | 77.9% |
| 2020 | 3,761 | 1,126 | 901 | 360 | 586 | 1,396 | 428 | 4,797 | -1,036 | 17,773 | 22,523 | 78.9% |
| 2021 | 3,819 | 1,188 | 928 | 362 | 565 | 1,379 | 452 | 4,873 | -1,054 | 18,827 | 22,600 | 83.3% |
| 2022 | 4,012 | 1,265 | 1,004 | 378 | 566 | 1,416 | 489 | 5,125 | -1,113 | 19,939 | 23,600 | 84.5% |
| 2023 | 4,248 | 1,348 | 1,083 | 395 | 593 | 1,457 | 518 | 5,420 | -1,171 | 21,110 | 24,700 | 85.5% |
| 2024 | 4,489 | 1,438 | 1,169 | 413 | 619 | 1,496 | 549 | 5,728 | -1,239 | 22,350 | 25,800 | 86.6% |
| 2025 | 4,725 | 1,533 | 1,259 | 432 | 648 | 1,539 | 581 | 6,059 | -1,334 | 23,683 | 27,000 | 87.7% |
| 2026 | 4,963 | 1,634 | 1,354 | 451 | 677 | 1,579 | 616 | 6,400 | -1,437 | 25,120 | 28,200 | 89.1% |
| 2027 | 5,204 | 1,742 | 1,452 | 470 | 706 | 1,617 | 653 | 6,751 | -1,547 | 26,667 | 29,400 | 90.7% |
| 2028 | 5,465 | 1,857 | 1,591 | 491 | 737 | 1,658 | 693 | 7,163 | -1,699 | 28,365 | 30,700 | 92.4% |
| 2029 | 5,728 | 1,973 | 1,703 | 512 | 768 | 1,696 | 737 | 7,548 | -1,820 | 30,185 | 32,000 | 94.3% |
| 2030 | 6,012 | 2,093 | 1,818 | 568 | 768 | 1,737 | 785 | 7,953 | -1,941 | 32,126 | 33,400 | 96.2% |
| 2031 | 6,299 | 2,218 | 1,936 | 592 | 766 | 1,775 | 835 | 8,330 | -2,032 | 34,158 | 34,800 | 98.2% |
| 2032 | 6,352 | 2,349 | 2,058 | 593 | 768 | 1,745 | 888 | 8,595 | -2,243 | 36,401 | 34,900 | 104.3% |
| 2033 | 6,661 | 2,484 | 2,183 | 619 | 801 | 1,820 | 946 | 9,071 | -2,410 | 38,810 | 36,400 | 106.6% |
| 2034 | 6,992 | 2,622 | 2,313 | 646 | 836 | 1,900 | 1,009 | 9,571 | -2,579 | 41,389 | 38,000 | 108.9% |
| 2035 | 7,326 | 2,764 | 2,447 | 673 | 871 | 1,980 | 1,076 | 10,081 | -2,755 | 44,144 | 39,600 | 111.5% |
| 2036 | 7,682 | 2,911 | 2,585 | 702 | 909 | 2,065 | 1,148 | 10,618 | -2,936 | 47,080 | 41,300 | 114.0% |
| 2037 | 8,041 | 3,067 | 2,723 | 731 | 946 | 2,150 | 1,224 | 11,165 | -3,124 | 50,204 | 43,000 | 116.8% |
| 2038 | 8,441 | 3,230 | 2,860 | 763 | 988 | 2,245 | 1,305 | 11,747 | -3,306 | 53,510 | 44,900 | 119.2% |
| 2039 | 8,845 | 3,399 | 2,999 | 796 | 1,030 | 2,340 | 1,391 | 12,342 | -3,497 | 57,007 | 46,800 | 121.8% |
| 2040 | 9,272 | 3,575 | 3,142 | 878 | 1,025 | 2,440 | 1,482 | 12,963 | -3,691 | 60,698 | 48,800 | 124.4% |
| 2041 | 9,671 | 3,757 | 3,288 | 916 | 1,069 | 2,545 | 1,578 | 13,611 | -3,940 | 64,638 | 50,900 | 127.0% |
| 2042 | 10,089 | 3,946 | 3,436 | 956 | 1,115 | 2,655 | 1,681 | 14,285 | -4,196 | 68,834 | 53,100 | 129.6% |
| 2043 | 10,108 | 4,146 | 3,591 | 958 | 1,117 | 2,660 | 1,790 | 14,706 | -4,598 | 73,432 | 53,200 | 138.0% |
| 2044 | 10,545 | 4,357 | 3,753 | 999 | 1,166 | 2,775 | 1,909 | 15,436 | -4,891 | 78,322 | 55,500 | 141.1% |
| 2045 | 11,020 | 4,581 | 3,927 | 1,044 | 1,218 | 2,900 | 2,036 | 16,222 | -5,202 | 83,524 | 58,000 | 144.0% |
| 2046 | 11,495 | 4,819 | 4,108 | 1,089 | 1,271 | 3,025 | 2,172 | 17,034 | -5,539 | 89,062 | 60,500 | 147.2% |
| 2047 | 12,008 | 5,073 | 4,295 | 1,138 | 1,327 | 3,160 | 2,316 | 17,900 | -5,892 | 94,954 | 63,200 | 150.2% |
| 2048 | 12,540 | 5,345 | 4,488 | 1,188 | 1,386 | 3,300 | 2,469 | 18,809 | -6,269 | 101,223 | 66,000 | 153.4% |
| 2049 | 13,091 | 5,632 | 4,754 | 1,240 | 1,447 | 3,445 | 2,632 | 19,826 | -6,735 | 107,958 | 68,900 | 156.7% |
| 2050 | 13,661 | 5,939 | 5,033 | 1,294 | 1,510 | 3,595 | 2,807 | 20,895 | -7,234 | 115,191 | 71,900 | 160.2% |
I'm not saying that this is necessarily more accurate that the previous one, or that either are accurate. They both are possible forecasts of the future. I think this shows that interest is not necessarily a problem as the long-term outlook for interest rates is decreasing.
The problem is the entitlement spending, which is Social Security, Medicare, Other Health, and Other Mandatory Spending. Other Health is defined as "Medicaid, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, as well as outlays to subsidize health insurance purchased through the marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act and related spending" (source CBO).
This shows that Debt Held by the Public will first reach $50 trillion by 2037. This number is slightly more than $16 trillion now. So it will triple in the next 18 years. (The previous forecast showed it reaching $50 trillion by 2040). I also show it reaching $100 trillion in 2048, whereas the previous forecast showed it reaching $100 trillion in 2053.
Update (2/8/20): The next time I redo this, I think it should take into account non-budgetary items that go into the public debt, which are mostly student loans, and the Fed-owned notes and bonds which are longer than 1 year should be subtracted.
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