Friday, July 31, 2020
Silver hits $24 per ounce
Check this out: The price of silver was just over $18/ounce on July 1. It hit $19/ounce on July 13. It hit $20/ounce on about July 19, $21 on July 20, and $22 on July 21. It then crosses $23 on July 25, and $24 on July 26 before settling down a little. It is now (July 31 at 8PM) at about $24.40. So it is up 33.5% in the last 30 days.
Thursday, July 30, 2020
Most credit is issued to super-prime borrowers
Here are the facts about credit card issuance. All of this data is before the current pandemic recession, so you know it has changed, probably drastically.
There are approximately 6 million credit cards issued each month, and the amount of new credit issued is approximately $35 billion per month. The average credit limit for all cards issued is about $5,900.
This is the breakdown per category of credit. I don't know the average credit limit per category or the average number of cards per category so this is an educated guess. I assume that this includes secured cards.
Deep Subprime (below 580): 900,000 credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $300. Total credit issued about $270 million.
Subprime (580 to 619): 900,000 credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $600. Total credit issued is about $540 million.
Near-Prime (620 to 659): 1 million credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $1500 for a total of $1.5 billion
Prime (660 to 719): 1.3 million credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $4500 for a total of $5.8 billion in credit.
Super-Prime (720 plus): 1.7 million credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $15,000 for a total of $25.5 billion in credit.
There are approximately 6 million credit cards issued each month, and the amount of new credit issued is approximately $35 billion per month. The average credit limit for all cards issued is about $5,900.
This is the breakdown per category of credit. I don't know the average credit limit per category or the average number of cards per category so this is an educated guess. I assume that this includes secured cards.
Deep Subprime (below 580): 900,000 credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $300. Total credit issued about $270 million.
Subprime (580 to 619): 900,000 credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $600. Total credit issued is about $540 million.
Near-Prime (620 to 659): 1 million credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $1500 for a total of $1.5 billion
Prime (660 to 719): 1.3 million credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $4500 for a total of $5.8 billion in credit.
Super-Prime (720 plus): 1.7 million credit cards issued each month with an average credit limit of $15,000 for a total of $25.5 billion in credit.
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Orlando Rail Fail
A major problem is how
to get anyone to ride the trains, as ridership is well below
expectations and 2018 fare revenues covered just 5 percent of operating costs. A final question is how to pay to
continue operating the trains, which lost more than $40
per passenger in 2018. This [Orlando SunRail] is a misbegotten project that never should have
been considered, never should have been funded, and never should have been built. It has so far cost taxpayers more
than $1.3 billion dollars in capital costs and, through the
end of 2019, around $200 million in operating subsidies.
It is the worst-performing commuter-rail line in the nation, with the highest subsidy per trip and the lowest ratio of fare revenues to operating costs.
https://ti.org/pdfs/APB62.pdf
The train doesn't go to the airport and it doesn't go to Disneyworld or to Daytona Beach. In 2019, it only served 6,000 passengers per day. In 2020, a train that once had 200 to 300 riders during rush hour only had 10 passengers. They should just shut it down.
https://ti.org/pdfs/APB62.pdf
The train doesn't go to the airport and it doesn't go to Disneyworld or to Daytona Beach. In 2019, it only served 6,000 passengers per day. In 2020, a train that once had 200 to 300 riders during rush hour only had 10 passengers. They should just shut it down.
Monday, July 27, 2020
Gold hits $1900 per ounce
The gold price is now (July 27, 2020 at 9:30am) about $1940/ounce. It was at $1800 on July 16 and has increased every day since then. I think this is the highest it has ever been. The gold price briefly went above $1900 on August 22, 2011.
Gold started the year [2011] just above $1,400 an ounce. Gold prices first crossed the $1,900 mark in after-hours electronic trading Monday. Early Tuesday, prices hit an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce, before pulling back to about $1,880. Aug 22, 2011. money.cnn.com
See also https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2020/07/gold-hits-1800-per-ounce.html
The price of gold was $1400 per ounce one year ago on 7/5/19.
When will it hit $2000/ounce? At this rate it will happen within a month.
==================
Update:
For the first time in nearly a decade, the gold price has hit a new all-time record. Futures contracts for delivering gold in August shot up 2.1% to $1,938.10 a troy ounce, topping the previous intraday peak of $1,923.70 from September 2011.
https://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2020/07/gold-prices-hit-all-time-new-record.html
Gold started the year [2011] just above $1,400 an ounce. Gold prices first crossed the $1,900 mark in after-hours electronic trading Monday. Early Tuesday, prices hit an all-time high of $1,917.90 an ounce, before pulling back to about $1,880. Aug 22, 2011. money.cnn.com
See also https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2020/07/gold-hits-1800-per-ounce.html
The price of gold was $1400 per ounce one year ago on 7/5/19.
When will it hit $2000/ounce? At this rate it will happen within a month.
==================
Update:
For the first time in nearly a decade, the gold price has hit a new all-time record. Futures contracts for delivering gold in August shot up 2.1% to $1,938.10 a troy ounce, topping the previous intraday peak of $1,923.70 from September 2011.
https://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2020/07/gold-prices-hit-all-time-new-record.html
Saturday, July 25, 2020
No fee unsecured cards for fair credit
To make this list, this must be an unrestricted credit card (not a store card), have no fee, and be open to people with credit scores less than 670.
Disney Rewards ($0 fee, 15.99% apr). This is a Chase card so the 5/24 rule applies.
TJX Platinum Mastercard ($0 fee, 26.99% APR)
Walmart Credit Card from CapitalOne (no annual fee 640+ 26.99% APR)
Petal Visa ($0 fee, 23.99% APR). For people with new credit only.
Deserve EDU (deserve.com) ($0 fee, 18.74%) . For students only.
Target RedCard Mastercard ($0, 22.9% APR). Apply for the store card first, then it can be upgraded to the Mastercard.
Ollo Rewards or Platinum Mastercard. By invitation only.
Paypal Credit Card. (Some users report being accepted with scores as low as 600).
Mercury Mastercard. By invitation only.
Capital One Platinum ($0 fee, 26.99% interest). Applicants may be required to get the secured card first. It may come with a $300 limit.
Upgrade Card (640+)
Discover IT. Apply for the secured version first, and it can be upgraded later.
SECU Starter Visa (secumd.org) ($0 fee, 13.99% apr)
Northwest Federal First Card Visa (nwfcu.org) ($0 fee, 12.9% APR, $1000 max credit limit)
Premier Members Credit Builder Visa (pmcu.org) ($0 fee, 10.15% apr, $1000 max credit limit)
Navy Federal Platinum. Only open to members.
Unify FCU Visa Classic. Only open to members but it is easy to join.
Andrews FCU Simplicity Visa. Only open to members.
Apple Card. Must have an iphone.
Chase Freedom / Chase Freedom Unlimited. $0 fee. Someone reported being accepted with a score of 645. Applicants must comply with the 5/24 rule. (Someone reported being accepted for Chase Freedom Unlimited with a 657.)
Mission Lane No Annual Fee Visa Credit Card. They also have a credit card with a $59 fee. (They accept applicants after bankruptcy. Some people report being approved for the $59 fee card with a credit score of 580. Some report being approved for the $0 fee card with a 635 score.)
Amazon Prime. Must be a prime member which costs $119/year. This is a Chase card so you must comply with the 5/24 rule.
Jasper Mastercard. Designed for people with no credit. Not for credit rebuilding.
Disney Rewards ($0 fee, 15.99% apr). This is a Chase card so the 5/24 rule applies.
TJX Platinum Mastercard ($0 fee, 26.99% APR)
Walmart Credit Card from CapitalOne (no annual fee 640+ 26.99% APR)
Petal Visa ($0 fee, 23.99% APR). For people with new credit only.
Deserve EDU (deserve.com) ($0 fee, 18.74%) . For students only.
Target RedCard Mastercard ($0, 22.9% APR). Apply for the store card first, then it can be upgraded to the Mastercard.
Ollo Rewards or Platinum Mastercard. By invitation only.
Paypal Credit Card. (Some users report being accepted with scores as low as 600).
Mercury Mastercard. By invitation only.
Capital One Platinum ($0 fee, 26.99% interest). Applicants may be required to get the secured card first. It may come with a $300 limit.
Upgrade Card (640+)
Discover IT. Apply for the secured version first, and it can be upgraded later.
SECU Starter Visa (secumd.org) ($0 fee, 13.99% apr)
Northwest Federal First Card Visa (nwfcu.org) ($0 fee, 12.9% APR, $1000 max credit limit)
Premier Members Credit Builder Visa (pmcu.org) ($0 fee, 10.15% apr, $1000 max credit limit)
Navy Federal Platinum. Only open to members.
Unify FCU Visa Classic. Only open to members but it is easy to join.
Andrews FCU Simplicity Visa. Only open to members.
Apple Card. Must have an iphone.
Chase Freedom / Chase Freedom Unlimited. $0 fee. Someone reported being accepted with a score of 645. Applicants must comply with the 5/24 rule. (Someone reported being accepted for Chase Freedom Unlimited with a 657.)
Mission Lane No Annual Fee Visa Credit Card. They also have a credit card with a $59 fee. (They accept applicants after bankruptcy. Some people report being approved for the $59 fee card with a credit score of 580. Some report being approved for the $0 fee card with a 635 score.)
Amazon Prime. Must be a prime member which costs $119/year. This is a Chase card so you must comply with the 5/24 rule.
Jasper Mastercard. Designed for people with no credit. Not for credit rebuilding.
Barclaycard Rewards. ($0 fee, 25.24% APR) At least a 620 score is required.
There are probably more than these and I will update the list as I find them.
Note: I am not saying that if someone applies for them they are guaranteed to be accepted. With the coronavirus recession all credit card companies are more cautious. I am just saying that some people with credit scores below 670 have been accepted in some cases by these cards. All of these have quirks or are targeted towards certain people (like students or military), so extra research is needed.
See also: https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-union-cards-anyone-can-get/
Most of those have no annual fees and are open to people with fair credit. You must join the credit union first.
There are probably more than these and I will update the list as I find them.
Note: I am not saying that if someone applies for them they are guaranteed to be accepted. With the coronavirus recession all credit card companies are more cautious. I am just saying that some people with credit scores below 670 have been accepted in some cases by these cards. All of these have quirks or are targeted towards certain people (like students or military), so extra research is needed.
See also: https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-union-cards-anyone-can-get/
Most of those have no annual fees and are open to people with fair credit. You must join the credit union first.
Thursday, July 23, 2020
Could there be a tied election?
Could there be a tied election 269 to 269? This depends on Trump winning Wisconsin and all the other toss-up states (except for the Maine district). The latest polls in Wisconsin show Biden ahead 47.8 to 41.8. So Wisconsin could decide the winner.
What if it actually was a tie? Then it would go to the House of Representatives and each state would get 1 vote. By my count, in the House there are 22 states controlled by Democrats and 27 by Republicans and 1 tied (Michigan). So a tie would go to Trump.
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
The Drew epic failure part 2
I called Fontainebleau an epic failure in 2012. A quick refresher: it is an unfinished 68-story casino in Las Vegas on which $1.6 billion had been spent before the developer ran out of money in 2009. The bankruptcy court sold it to Carl Icahn for $150 million in 2010. He held on to it and sold it in 2017 for $600 million.
The new owners renamed it The Drew and initially planned to open it in 2020 and then pushed it back to the second quarter of 2022 and then November 2022. The new owners quickly sunk $490 million into it. In January 2020, Steve Witkoff was planning on closing on a $2 billion loan. The total expected investment to open it soared to $3.1 billion (including the $600 million purchase price).
Then the coronavirus recession happened. The construction loan fell through. The project was suspended indefinitely in March 2020. Now they have suspended making all payments on existing loans since May 2020. The project is not yet formally in default and the owners have asked for a deferment on the existing loan, but it is only a matter of time before it does into default and then bankruptcy court again. I think it is more likely to be demolished than to ever open.
Read: Plug Pulled on The Drew, Project in Default
===========================
Update: The $490 million (600 billion won) was a loan from South Korean investors and payments on that have been suspended.
Friday, July 17, 2020
Dubai Creek Tower fail
The Dubai Creek Tower was supposed to have a height of at least as high as the Burj Khalifa (828m) and possibly as much as 1300 meters. It isn't a building, and it is described as an observation tower, with cables holding it in place, and only a few floors near the top would be occupied. The cost was estimated at $1 billion and it was originally supposed to be completed by 2021.
Work on the foundation began in October 2016 and was completed by May 2017. However, no work has been done since then and the tower will likely never be completed. The coronavirus pandemic has caused all construction to be stopped in Dubai.
See: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8192051/Work-halted-worlds-tallest-building-Dubai-major-projects-suspended-coronavirus.html
and https://thetowerinfo.com/buildings-list/dubai-creek-tower/
Work on the foundation began in October 2016 and was completed by May 2017. However, no work has been done since then and the tower will likely never be completed. The coronavirus pandemic has caused all construction to be stopped in Dubai.
See: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8192051/Work-halted-worlds-tallest-building-Dubai-major-projects-suspended-coronavirus.html
and https://thetowerinfo.com/buildings-list/dubai-creek-tower/
Jeddah Tower Fail
Jeddah Tower was supposed to be the world's highest skyscraper, at over 1 km (3,281 ft tall). The cost was budgeted at about $1.2 billion. Construction began in 2013 and was supposed to take about 5 years.
However, as of January 2018, the tower is only about 252m (827 ft) tall and no work has been done since then. The main financier of it was Saudi Arabian prince Al-Waleed bin Talal who was worth $40 billion in 2017, but he was arrested in the Saudi Arabian purge, and most of his wealth was seized.
The building will likely never be completed.
Thursday, July 16, 2020
28 million people may be evicted in August and September
We’re looking at 20 million to 28 million people in this moment, between now [July 10] and September, facing eviction. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/looming-evictions-may-soon-make-28-million-homeless-expert-says.html
Note: I think this is vastly exaggerated, you know clickbait, but I wanted to make a note of it. Where this is headed is a movement to allow people to live in their apartments for free, or at least make the government pay their rent.
Note: I think this is vastly exaggerated, you know clickbait, but I wanted to make a note of it. Where this is headed is a movement to allow people to live in their apartments for free, or at least make the government pay their rent.
Black mayors want $6.2 quadrillion in reparations
The nation’s mayors on Monday backed a national call for reparations to 41 million black people, a program that could cost taxpayers $6.2 quadrillion.
The U.S. Conference of Mayors released a letter backing a Democratic plan to form a reparations commission to come up with a payment for slavery.
“We recognize and support your legislation as a concrete first step in our larger reckoning as a nation, and a next step to guide the actions of both federal and local leaders who have promised to do better by our black residents,” said the letter from conference President Greg Fischer, mayor of Louisville.
Sen. Cory Booker and Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee have introduced legislation to create a commission, the Commission to Study and Develop Reparation Proposals for African-Americans Act.
The calculation is somewhat complicated, but it essentially studies the unpaid hours slaves worked, calculates a price for massacres and discrimination, and adds in interest. It is titled "Wealth Implications of Slavery and Racial Discrimination for African American Descendants of the Enslaved." It was published last month in the the Review of Black Political Economy.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/mayors-back-reparations-could-cost-6-2-quadrillion-151m-per-descendant
Well, $6.2 quadrillion is less than $10 sextillion, so I am good with that. Let's make Sheila Jackson Lee the new chairwoman of the Federal Reserve and put her in charge of implementing this. Oh, and the minimum wage needs to be raised to $100,000 per hour. /satire
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/mayors-back-reparations-could-cost-6-2-quadrillion-151m-per-descendant
Well, $6.2 quadrillion is less than $10 sextillion, so I am good with that. Let's make Sheila Jackson Lee the new chairwoman of the Federal Reserve and put her in charge of implementing this. Oh, and the minimum wage needs to be raised to $100,000 per hour. /satire
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Will Tammy Duckworth be the next president?
Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth |
[Connecticut Attorney John] Droney said he believes the best candidate is U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, who lost both legs while serving as a U.S. Army helicopter pilot in 2004 during the Iraq War. “If you’re going to be practical about electing a president, you should pick a woman who will appeal to middle-class people who are not ideologues across the country,” he said. “She’s a war hero. She gave a lot for her country already. People respect that military service. That component is not part of the Democratic picture anymore. There are very few active Democrats who actually served in the military. ... Biden needs to get the middle class of America on his team.” Source: Hartford Courant
Point 1: As the article said, she is a military veteran. How many female military veterans are there besides her and Tulsi Gabbard?
Point 2: She was born in Bangkok, Thailand. Her father is American and her mother is Thai Chinese. So she is a minority. And her name apparently is not Tamara, just Tammy.
Point 3: She seems like a female clone of Barrack Obama. Obama was born in 1961 in Hawaii and lived in Indonesia and Hawaii and became a U.S. Senator from Illinois. Tammy was born in 1968 in Bangkok and lived in Jakarta, Indonesia and Hawaii and became a U.S. Senator from Illinois.
Point 4: Did I mention that she doesn't have any legs? She is a female double amputee who lost her legs in Iraq in 2004.
Ding, ding, ding. Meet your next president, Tammy Duckworth. What about Joe Biden? He is just a placeholder.
88-year political cycle
Herbert Hoover, US President from 1929-1933 |
I am probably off-base on this but I like thinking outside the box and these are some possible parallels.
Woodrow Wilson, president from 1913 to 1921. He led the US into WWI, and established an activist foreign policy that is known as "Wilsonianism". Was a leading proponent of the "League of Nations", even though the US didn't join. The depression of 1920-1921 occurred at the end of his presidency.
George W Bush, president from 2001-2009. Interventionist foreign policy - launched a "War on Terror" and invaded Afghanistan and Iraq with the "Coalition of the Willing". The Great Recession of 2007-2009 occurred at the end of his presidency.
Calvin Coolidge, president from 1923-1929. (Warren G Harding was elected in 1920 but died of a heart attack in 1923). While he was president the US had a period of rapid economic growth known as the "Roaring Twenties".
Barrack Obama, president from 2009-2017. He signed the Recovery Act of 2009, which "kicked off the longest period of economic growth and job creation in American History" (Forbes). [Note: This gives Obama credit for the growth that occurred under Trump, but I am talking about the perception that people have.]
Herbert Hoover, president from 1929-1933. Held office during the onset of the Great Depression and the public blamed his administration for failing to recover from it. He was very conservative and opposed New Deal policies.
Donald Trump, president from 2017-2021. Held office during the onset of the COVID-19 Recession (as Wikipedia has labeled it) and is blamed by the public for failing to recover from it. He was conservative in his politics. He signed the $2 trillion CARES Act into law in an attempt to recover from the recession, but opposes further stimulus, like the HEROES Act.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, president from 1933-1945. Lead the New Deal, a series of programs and projects that vastly expanded the scope of the federal government and were largely opposed by Republicans.
Joseph R Biden, elected president in November 2020, inaugurated in January 2021, but served only two months before being forced to resign under the 25th Amendment because of the decline in his cognitive abilities. His successor implemented the Green New Deal, which was a $10 trillion omnibus spending bill vastly expanding the scope of the federal government.
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
Martin Armstrong predicts a collapse in 2032
We will witness the collapse after 2032 and the shift to Asia. We are looking at 2028 as the start of the major collapse which should take just 4.3 years from that target date. The collapse will most likely take place more like the demise of Yugoslavia whereby it split according to religion but this time there will also be political philosophy. As Western Society begins to buckle at the knees going into 2028, we should expect to see a draconian attempt to retain power starting in 2024.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/why-when-will-the-west-crash-burn/
Martin needs to explain further what he thinks will happen. What I understand him saying is that there is a Marxist revolution going on right now which will go into full swing upon the election of the senile Joe Biden and the dictator who will replace him. This will lead to centralized government control and nationalization of key industries. This in turn will destroy the economy and lead to what Armstrong calls the Grand Collapse. This will lead to civil war about 2028 and result in the end of the United States as we know it and it fragmenting into several countries.
He didn't say all that, that is my interpretation of what he is saying and connecting the dots. Read his article and see if you disagree with what he is saying.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/why-when-will-the-west-crash-burn/
Martin needs to explain further what he thinks will happen. What I understand him saying is that there is a Marxist revolution going on right now which will go into full swing upon the election of the senile Joe Biden and the dictator who will replace him. This will lead to centralized government control and nationalization of key industries. This in turn will destroy the economy and lead to what Armstrong calls the Grand Collapse. This will lead to civil war about 2028 and result in the end of the United States as we know it and it fragmenting into several countries.
He didn't say all that, that is my interpretation of what he is saying and connecting the dots. Read his article and see if you disagree with what he is saying.
Monday, July 13, 2020
The Money Printers
Read: https://thebaffler.com/salvos/the-money-printers-denison
In the modern era, central bankers have become bolder and ever-more confident that they know how to prevent another Great Depression. The faith they assert is that the United States cannot go bankrupt, cannot run out of money—simply because “there is no end to our ability” to create the money that businesses and consumers need to make the economy hum.
This makes me think of Carl Sagan talk about the trillions of stars in the universe. Just replace stars with dollars.
There are 100 billion galaxies, each of which contains 100 billion stars. Trillions, Quadrillions, Quintillions, Sextillions, etc. 100 billion squared is 10 sextillion, if I have my math right. And if these numbers are too large, you can always chop a few zeros off.
In the modern era, central bankers have become bolder and ever-more confident that they know how to prevent another Great Depression. The faith they assert is that the United States cannot go bankrupt, cannot run out of money—simply because “there is no end to our ability” to create the money that businesses and consumers need to make the economy hum.
This makes me think of Carl Sagan talk about the trillions of stars in the universe. Just replace stars with dollars.
There are 100 billion galaxies, each of which contains 100 billion stars. Trillions, Quadrillions, Quintillions, Sextillions, etc. 100 billion squared is 10 sextillion, if I have my math right. And if these numbers are too large, you can always chop a few zeros off.
Wuhan Greenland Center Fail
The Wuhan Greenland Center was supposed to be 2,087 ft tall (636 m), surpassing the Shanghai Tower in height, which would make it the 2nd tallest building in the world. However, construction was halted in August 2017 when it reached a height of about 1500 feet due to airspace restrictions because of the expansion of the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport. The building has since been redesigned to be 1,562 ft in height (476 m). It will still be the 15th tallest building in the world.
Shanghai Tower Fail
Shanghai Tower was completed in 2014, and is the world's second tallest skyscraper, at 2073 ft, (behind Burj Khalifa in Dubai). However, it is a commercial failure. Only 33% of the space is occupied and there are 55 floors (out of 128) which are completely empty. Part of the problem is that due to the building's design, floorspace cannot be efficiently utilized.
To make matters worse, on July 6, 2020, half the building had a severe water leak where waterfalls running from the ceiling ruined office furniture and equipment. See video at
https://www.theepochtimes.com/51-floors-in-chinas-tallest-skyscraper-are-leaking-water_3420116.html
The June 2020 deficit was $864 billion
See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0620.pdf
The fiscal YTD deficit is $2.74 trillon. There are only 3 months left in the fiscal year, and the total deficit for the fiscal year will likely be more than $4 trillion.
The biggest line item is for Commerce & Housing Credit at $494 billion. I think this is mostly SBA loans. I thought these were off-budget outlays since they theoretically will be paid back, but they must be included in this number.
The next biggest line item is for Income Security at $156 billion, which is mostly unemployment compensation.
Without these two items, the deficit would have been about $200 billion. It seems likely that the monthly deficit will never drop below $200 billion per month on average in the future, or $2.4 billion per year, even after the current recession is over.
The fiscal YTD deficit is $2.74 trillon. There are only 3 months left in the fiscal year, and the total deficit for the fiscal year will likely be more than $4 trillion.
The biggest line item is for Commerce & Housing Credit at $494 billion. I think this is mostly SBA loans. I thought these were off-budget outlays since they theoretically will be paid back, but they must be included in this number.
The next biggest line item is for Income Security at $156 billion, which is mostly unemployment compensation.
Without these two items, the deficit would have been about $200 billion. It seems likely that the monthly deficit will never drop below $200 billion per month on average in the future, or $2.4 billion per year, even after the current recession is over.
There are only 4 credit grades
A credit score can range from 300 to 850 (or 900 on some models). But this doesn't matter, because these are put into one of these categories:
D - Bad. Anything that is 669 or below.
C - Fair. Anything from 670 to 699. In some cases, a score of 650 could be considered "fair", but this would be on a case-by-case basis. (Some store cards consider a 640 to be fair).
B - Good. Score from 700-759.
A - Excellent. Score from 760 on up. Sometimes a score of 750 could be considered excellent.
So what does this mean? A consumer has at least 6 credit scores - (Equifax FICO, Experian FICO, TransUnion FICO, Equifax Vantage, Experian Vantage and TransUnion Vantage). Forget the Vantage scores. Look at the lowest of the FICO scores and that is the score to use for grading.
If you have a D, then you will be denied a credit card, except for some store cards and except for the bottom-feeder cards which should be avoided. In some cases, a credit card issuer won't even give you a secured card if the score is less than 670.
If you have a score of at least 760, then a higher score is irrelevant. See: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/going-higher-than-this-credit-score-is-a-waste-of-time-expert-says.html.
So only the scores from 670 to 760 are really relevant.
Capital One will likely deny someone a credit card if their score is outside this range. If it is too low, then it is too risky. If it is too high, then it is not profitable enough.
D - Bad. Anything that is 669 or below.
C - Fair. Anything from 670 to 699. In some cases, a score of 650 could be considered "fair", but this would be on a case-by-case basis. (Some store cards consider a 640 to be fair).
B - Good. Score from 700-759.
A - Excellent. Score from 760 on up. Sometimes a score of 750 could be considered excellent.
So what does this mean? A consumer has at least 6 credit scores - (Equifax FICO, Experian FICO, TransUnion FICO, Equifax Vantage, Experian Vantage and TransUnion Vantage). Forget the Vantage scores. Look at the lowest of the FICO scores and that is the score to use for grading.
If you have a D, then you will be denied a credit card, except for some store cards and except for the bottom-feeder cards which should be avoided. In some cases, a credit card issuer won't even give you a secured card if the score is less than 670.
If you have a score of at least 760, then a higher score is irrelevant. See: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/going-higher-than-this-credit-score-is-a-waste-of-time-expert-says.html.
So only the scores from 670 to 760 are really relevant.
Capital One will likely deny someone a credit card if their score is outside this range. If it is too low, then it is too risky. If it is too high, then it is not profitable enough.
Secret Credit Scores
Read: https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_comments/2014/08/00014-92369.pdf
This report is a little dated, having been written in 2014, but it is still very interesting. Businesses began using credit scores to make decisions in 1950, when Fair Isaac and Company began selling scores to businesses. The usage grew from 20-30% of credit decisions in 1979 to 75% in 2009. However, credit scores were a secret until the mid-1990s, and it wasn't until about 2000 that the public became widely aware of them. FACTA in 2004 allowed consumers to see their scores.
Today it is likely that there are still secret scores, because it is obvious that credit card companies are making decisions on issuing cards on factors that they are not disclosing.
This report is a little dated, having been written in 2014, but it is still very interesting. Businesses began using credit scores to make decisions in 1950, when Fair Isaac and Company began selling scores to businesses. The usage grew from 20-30% of credit decisions in 1979 to 75% in 2009. However, credit scores were a secret until the mid-1990s, and it wasn't until about 2000 that the public became widely aware of them. FACTA in 2004 allowed consumers to see their scores.
Today it is likely that there are still secret scores, because it is obvious that credit card companies are making decisions on issuing cards on factors that they are not disclosing.
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Unify FCU
This is an entertaining video about Unify FCU, about which I have heard good things. It is the 86th largest credit union in the country. It probably serves more states (19) and has more branches (59) than any other credit union, next to Navy Fed and PenFed.
=======================
Update: Other credit unions with multi-state footprints are:
First Tech. 40 branches in 9 states and Puerto Rico.
Wings FCU. 30 branches in 5 states
Connexus. 13 branches in 4 states
Self-Help FCU has 31 branches in 3 states (CA, IL, WI)
Self-Help CU (a different organization) has 29 branches in 4 states (NC, VA, SC, FL)
PenFed has 46 branches in 13 states and 3 territories. So only Navy Federal has more branches (319).
Pentagon Federal is a beast
First a little history. War Department Federal Credit Union was founded in 1935. It changed its name to Pentagon Federal Credit Union in 1947. It reached $1 million in assets in 1949, and 100,000 members in 1971. It had $1 billion of assets in 1984, and $10 billion of assets in 2007. It had 1 million members in 2010. It had assets of $25 billion and and 1.8 million members as of July 2018 (and over 2 million as of July 2020), and is the 3rd largest credit union in the US (behind Navy Federal and SECU of NC) . All active duty and retired members of the military are eligible to join, and since 2019 it has open membership.
In 2015, PenFed started its acquisitions spree and has since swallowed up the following credit unions:
2015: Corps of Engineers FCU of Ft Worth TX with $41 million of assets
NAVFAC FCU of Honolulu, HI with $27 million
AAFES FCU of Dallas, TX with $91 million
2016: Ft Gordon CU of Ft Gordon, GA with $65 million
Belvoir FCU of Woodbridge VA with $333 million
Alamo FCU of San Antonio TX with $43 million
High Plains FCU of Clovis NM with $41 million
2017: Energy FCU of Rockville, MD with $102 million
Miramar FCU of San Diego, CA with $175 million
KYANG FCU of Louisville KY with $11 million
Valor FCU of Scranton PA with $227 million
Suntide FCU of Corpus Christi TX with $71 million
Augusta Metro FCU of Augusta GA with $114 million
2019: Progressive Credit Union of New York City with $382 million
McGraw-Hill FCU of East Windsor NJ with $426 million
Most of these passed unnoticed, but the merger with Progressive CU was criticized by the American Bankers Association because Progressive CU had an open charter which allowed anyone nationwide to join, and PenFed kept this policy. The ABA complains that credit unions are subsidized and that the NCUA doesn't regulate PenFed sufficiently.
PenFed received so much criticism for this acquisition spree that it probably won't acquire any new credit unions in the future.
Friday, July 10, 2020
Bottom-Feeder Credit Cards
The following is a partial list of bottom-feeder (aka "subprime" credit cards). Most of these charge $75+ annually in fees and only have a $300 credit limit. These are almost as bad as payday loans. They may have monthly fees, so you may have to send a check every month even if you don't use it. Stay far far away. "But ... but ... but, I have bad credit, what am I supposed to do?". Easy, get a secured credit card from a credit union. And there is no guaranteed approval - if someone with bad credit applies for one of these, they may be denied and get a hard pull on their credit report. And if they are approved, they get the "privilege" of paying these annual fees. Run.
The partial list of bottom-feeder credit cards:
Note: I am excluding secured cards with annual fees from this list, as well as cards that require a credit score of 670 or more with an annual fee. These are all unsecured cards that you can apply for with a score of under 670 and that have a fee of $39 or more per year.
Applied Bank ($48 annual fee)
Assent ($49)
Avant ($39 fee)
Blaze Mastercard ($75 fee)
CapitalOne QuickSilverOne ($39) (Note: This is a different card from the CapitalOne QuickSilver card which has no annual fee).
Continental Finance Mastercard ($300)
CreditOne ($99 fee) (Note: applicants with a better score may get a $0 annual fee)
CreditOne American Express Card ($39). This is a little better, but it has an APR of 23.99%.
Destiny ($59-$99)
Hutton Chase Deluxe Signature ($239)
First Access ($75 fee)
First Digital ($75 fee)
First National Bank of Minnesota Visa ($75)
First Premier ($125 to $174 fee)
First Progress Mastercard ($49 fee)
Fit Mastercard ($99)
Fortiva Mastercard ($175)
Freedom Gold ($300)
Group One Platinum ($300)
Horizon Gold ($300)
Indigo Mastercard ($75)
Merit Platinum ($300 annual fee)
Milestone ($35 to $99 fee)
Mission Lane ($59 fee)
My Best Buy Visa ($59) (Note: applicants with a better credit score may get a $0 annual fee, but this still has 27.49% interest)
NASCAR CreditOne Visa ($99) (Note: applicants with a better credit score may get a $0 annual fee)
Net First Platinum ($72 to $300 annual fee)
Next Millenium ($239 fee)
NextGen Platinum Mastercard ($75) (May be the same as First Digital)
Ollo Rewards ($39) (Note: by invitation only, applicants with a better credit score may get a $0 annual fee)
Premier Forward ($75-$125) (Another name for First Premier.
Reflex Mastercard ($99 fee)
Sam's Club Mastercard ($55) (580 score needed)
Southwest Rapid Rewards Premier or Priority ($69 to $149) (from Chase) (Some applicants get approved with scores as low as 607)
Starbucks Rewards Visa ($49) (A review says that a minimum credit score of 600 is needed)
Surge Mastercard ($125 fee)
Total Visa ($89)
US Bank LATAM Visa ($45) (Note: This may no longer be available because LATAM is declaring bankruptcy)
Vast Platinum ($240)
The partial list of bottom-feeder credit cards:
Note: I am excluding secured cards with annual fees from this list, as well as cards that require a credit score of 670 or more with an annual fee. These are all unsecured cards that you can apply for with a score of under 670 and that have a fee of $39 or more per year.
Applied Bank ($48 annual fee)
Assent ($49)
Avant ($39 fee)
Blaze Mastercard ($75 fee)
CapitalOne QuickSilverOne ($39) (Note: This is a different card from the CapitalOne QuickSilver card which has no annual fee).
Continental Finance Mastercard ($300)
CreditOne ($99 fee) (Note: applicants with a better score may get a $0 annual fee)
CreditOne American Express Card ($39). This is a little better, but it has an APR of 23.99%.
Destiny ($59-$99)
Hutton Chase Deluxe Signature ($239)
First Access ($75 fee)
First Digital ($75 fee)
First National Bank of Minnesota Visa ($75)
First Premier ($125 to $174 fee)
First Progress Mastercard ($49 fee)
Fit Mastercard ($99)
Fortiva Mastercard ($175)
Freedom Gold ($300)
Group One Platinum ($300)
Horizon Gold ($300)
Indigo Mastercard ($75)
Merit Platinum ($300 annual fee)
Milestone ($35 to $99 fee)
Mission Lane ($59 fee)
My Best Buy Visa ($59) (Note: applicants with a better credit score may get a $0 annual fee, but this still has 27.49% interest)
NASCAR CreditOne Visa ($99) (Note: applicants with a better credit score may get a $0 annual fee)
Net First Platinum ($72 to $300 annual fee)
Next Millenium ($239 fee)
NextGen Platinum Mastercard ($75) (May be the same as First Digital)
Ollo Rewards ($39) (Note: by invitation only, applicants with a better credit score may get a $0 annual fee)
Premier Forward ($75-$125) (Another name for First Premier.
Reflex Mastercard ($99 fee)
Sam's Club Mastercard ($55) (580 score needed)
Southwest Rapid Rewards Premier or Priority ($69 to $149) (from Chase) (Some applicants get approved with scores as low as 607)
Starbucks Rewards Visa ($49) (A review says that a minimum credit score of 600 is needed)
Surge Mastercard ($125 fee)
Total Visa ($89)
US Bank LATAM Visa ($45) (Note: This may no longer be available because LATAM is declaring bankruptcy)
Vast Platinum ($240)
Wednesday, July 8, 2020
Gold hits $1800 per ounce.
Spot gold has risen to above $1,802/oz today (July 8, 2020) for the first time since September 2011, taking year to date 2020 gains to 20%. A close above $1,800/oz on a daily basis is an important test for gold and should it do so, it will likely see strong gains and a test of the record nominal high of $1,920/oz in the "long hot summer" ahead.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-07-08/gold-tops-1800oz-highest-level-september-2011
Gold hit $1700 per ounce on April 13, 2020. That was less than 3 months ago. Will it hit $1900/ounce by October?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-07-08/gold-tops-1800oz-highest-level-september-2011
Gold hit $1700 per ounce on April 13, 2020. That was less than 3 months ago. Will it hit $1900/ounce by October?
The genius of a secured credit card at a credit union
The opposite of genius is insanity, or maybe stupidity, but stupidity sounds like a personal insult, and I am not trying to insult anyone's intelligence, only their actions. Insanity is dealing with monopolistic big banks who hate you and want to charge you exorbitant fees. Refuse to have anything to do with huge banks such as: JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, US Bank or huge credit card issuers such as American Express, Capital One, Credit One, Discover etc. Insanity is carrying a balance on a high-interest credit card, which is either going to blow up in your face or keep you in indentured servitude for the rest of your life.
Genius is dealing with a credit union, of which you are part owner, and getting a secured credit which you provided the capital for, and then getting a low interest rate with no annual fee. Of course, for someone with better credit, there is no need to get a secured card, but still one should totally avoid the toxic banks.
Without further ado, this is my list of the best credit unions that almost anyone can join that offer secured credit cards with no annual fees and low interest rates. Try to join one or more of them. It is a much smarter move than applying for another credit card with First Toxic.
1. State Department FCU
2. NASA FCU
3. Digital CU
4. First Tech FCU
5. Affinity FCU
6. Unify FCU
7. Premier Members Credit Union (Boulder, CO)
8. SECUMD (MD)
9. BECU (Seattle)
10. Patelco
11. Nuvision FCU
12. Signature FCU (Alexandria, VA)
13. Westerra CU (Denver, CO)
See also: The Genius of Secured Credit Cards
Update:
There are thousands of credit unions out there but most are only available to members within a geographical area. Most do not offer secured cards, and of those that do, most charge a fee. So there are only a few credit unions that meet all of my requirements. Here are more:
Andrews FCU (MD)
Credit Union of Denver (cudenver.com)
Hanscom FCU (hfcu.org)
MECU (mecu.com MD)
Allegacy (allegacy.org)
Apple FCU (applefcu.org)
Partner Colorado
Self-Help CU (self-help.org / self-helpfcu.org)
I will add more if I find them.
Update 2:
I am removing Navy Federal from the list because it is open only to military personnel and their family. Note that some other credit unions that started on military bases have more open membership, like Andrews FCU.
Update 3:
You will also want to find a credit union that doesn't do a hard pull when joining.
1. There is a list of secured cards with no fees available here: https://www.magnifymoney.com/compare/secured-credit-cards/
2. Now cross-check this with the list of credit unions that anyone can join:
https://www.depositaccounts.com/credit-unions/anyone-can-join/
3. Now look at the list of credit unions that have a hard pull on membership:
https://www.bankcheckingsavings.com/hard-pull-or-soft-pull-for-opening-a-bank-account/
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/bank-accounts/is-opening-a-bank-account-a-soft-or-hard-pull/
https://www.hustlermoneyblog.com/bank-account-checking-savings-soft-pull-or-hard-pull/
From the above list, which ones should be excluded because they require a hard pull or are difficult to join for out-of-state people?
State Dept FCU has a hard pull
NASA FCU has a hard pull
Digital CU has a hard pull.
First Tech FCU has a hard pull.
BECU has a soft pull, but members outside the area are subject to extra scrutiny
Signature has a hard pull
Westerra has a hard pull
Andrews FCU has a hard pull
Credit Union of Denver has a hard pull
Hanscom is unclear. It requires a $35 annual donation to join.
MECU does a hard pull
Allegacy is unclear but may be difficult to join. It has a list of about 20 associations that qualify, but no way to join them as part of application process.
Partner Colorado does a hard pull
Self-Help is unclear. Requires a $5 donation to Center for Community Self-Help.
Apple FCU has a soft pull, but requires a $20 annual donation to join
NuVision has a soft pull, but needs a deposit of 110%
SECUMD has a soft pull, but is open only to MD residents and employees of select companies.
Premier Members has a hard pull, according to some applicants.
Which ones are left?
Affinity FCU has a soft pull. $5 donation.
Unify FCU has a soft pull. Requires a onetime $20 donation.
Patelco has a soft pull. Must join Financial Fitness for a one-time $8 fee.
So that is my short list.
===========================================
Update 4:
I read that Teachers FCU (teachersfcu.org) secured visa is recommended. Let's analyze it. Membership is open to all and only requires a $1 donation. However, it is unknown whether it does a hard pull or soft pull. Update: This is open only to NY residents.
Update:
There are thousands of credit unions out there but most are only available to members within a geographical area. Most do not offer secured cards, and of those that do, most charge a fee. So there are only a few credit unions that meet all of my requirements. Here are more:
Andrews FCU (MD)
Credit Union of Denver (cudenver.com)
Hanscom FCU (hfcu.org)
MECU (mecu.com MD)
Allegacy (allegacy.org)
Apple FCU (applefcu.org)
Partner Colorado
Self-Help CU (self-help.org / self-helpfcu.org)
I will add more if I find them.
Update 2:
I am removing Navy Federal from the list because it is open only to military personnel and their family. Note that some other credit unions that started on military bases have more open membership, like Andrews FCU.
Update 3:
You will also want to find a credit union that doesn't do a hard pull when joining.
1. There is a list of secured cards with no fees available here: https://www.magnifymoney.com/compare/secured-credit-cards/
2. Now cross-check this with the list of credit unions that anyone can join:
https://www.depositaccounts.com/credit-unions/anyone-can-join/
3. Now look at the list of credit unions that have a hard pull on membership:
https://www.bankcheckingsavings.com/hard-pull-or-soft-pull-for-opening-a-bank-account/
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/bank-accounts/is-opening-a-bank-account-a-soft-or-hard-pull/
https://www.hustlermoneyblog.com/bank-account-checking-savings-soft-pull-or-hard-pull/
From the above list, which ones should be excluded because they require a hard pull or are difficult to join for out-of-state people?
State Dept FCU has a hard pull
NASA FCU has a hard pull
Digital CU has a hard pull.
First Tech FCU has a hard pull.
BECU has a soft pull, but members outside the area are subject to extra scrutiny
Signature has a hard pull
Westerra has a hard pull
Andrews FCU has a hard pull
Credit Union of Denver has a hard pull
Hanscom is unclear. It requires a $35 annual donation to join.
MECU does a hard pull
Allegacy is unclear but may be difficult to join. It has a list of about 20 associations that qualify, but no way to join them as part of application process.
Partner Colorado does a hard pull
Self-Help is unclear. Requires a $5 donation to Center for Community Self-Help.
Apple FCU has a soft pull, but requires a $20 annual donation to join
NuVision has a soft pull, but needs a deposit of 110%
SECUMD has a soft pull, but is open only to MD residents and employees of select companies.
Premier Members has a hard pull, according to some applicants.
Which ones are left?
Affinity FCU has a soft pull. $5 donation.
Unify FCU has a soft pull. Requires a onetime $20 donation.
Patelco has a soft pull. Must join Financial Fitness for a one-time $8 fee.
So that is my short list.
===========================================
Update 4:
I read that Teachers FCU (teachersfcu.org) secured visa is recommended. Let's analyze it. Membership is open to all and only requires a $1 donation. However, it is unknown whether it does a hard pull or soft pull. Update: This is open only to NY residents.
Monday, July 6, 2020
The history of credit scores
Read: https://time.com/3961676/history-credit-scores/
This is very interesting. The oldest credit agency, Equifax, claims to have started in 1975. However, this was just a name change when they computerized old records. It is the same company as Retail Credit Company which started in 1899 in Atlanta.
While many early agencies were short-lived, firms like Atlanta’s Retail Credit Company left an enduring impact. Founded in 1899, RCC developed files on millions of Americans over the next 60 years. This information included not just data on credit, capital and character, but information on individuals’ social, political and sexual lives as well. Already a magnet for criticism, the outcry against RCC reached a fever pitch in the 1960s when the firm revealed plans to computerize its records.
In the early 1970's, computerization of credit history was controversial because it was a threat to privacy. What a quaint notion.
A numerical credit score dates back from the 1950s when Bill Fair and Earl Isaac started the Fair Isaac Company, now know as FICO. The range of scores from 300 to 850 started in 1989.
https://www.opploans.com/blog/a-brief-history-of-credit-scores/
This is very interesting. The oldest credit agency, Equifax, claims to have started in 1975. However, this was just a name change when they computerized old records. It is the same company as Retail Credit Company which started in 1899 in Atlanta.
While many early agencies were short-lived, firms like Atlanta’s Retail Credit Company left an enduring impact. Founded in 1899, RCC developed files on millions of Americans over the next 60 years. This information included not just data on credit, capital and character, but information on individuals’ social, political and sexual lives as well. Already a magnet for criticism, the outcry against RCC reached a fever pitch in the 1960s when the firm revealed plans to computerize its records.
In the early 1970's, computerization of credit history was controversial because it was a threat to privacy. What a quaint notion.
A numerical credit score dates back from the 1950s when Bill Fair and Earl Isaac started the Fair Isaac Company, now know as FICO. The range of scores from 300 to 850 started in 1989.
https://www.opploans.com/blog/a-brief-history-of-credit-scores/
Thursday, July 2, 2020
Updated GDP Projections per the CBO
Here is the current GDP projections, where the year is a fiscal year (ending on Sept 30 of the year):
FY 2020 20,649
FY 2021 20,997
FY 2022 22,077
FY 2023 22,975
FY 2024 23,956
FY 2025 25,011
FY 2026 26,130
FY 2027 27,287
FY 2028 28,462
FY 2029 29,591
FY 2030 30,732
Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
Compare these to the GDP projections per the SSA. These are much lower. For 2030, Social Security projects that the GDP will be $39,249.
I'm really waiting for the updated CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, which should be available in a month or two. When that comes out, I will extend the projections all the way to 2095, and see when the system will crash.
FY 2020 20,649
FY 2021 20,997
FY 2022 22,077
FY 2023 22,975
FY 2024 23,956
FY 2025 25,011
FY 2026 26,130
FY 2027 27,287
FY 2028 28,462
FY 2029 29,591
FY 2030 30,732
Source: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data
Compare these to the GDP projections per the SSA. These are much lower. For 2030, Social Security projects that the GDP will be $39,249.
I'm really waiting for the updated CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, which should be available in a month or two. When that comes out, I will extend the projections all the way to 2095, and see when the system will crash.
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