The July 2020 deficit was only $61 billion

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-08/56497-CBO-MBR.pdf

The July 2020 deficit was $61 billion, and the fiscal year-to-date deficit was $2.806 trillion.  Why was the July deficit so low?  It wasn't because of  a decrease in spending, no it was because of a huge increase in revenue - but from where?  "payment deadlines for individual and corporate income taxes were delayed from April and June to July, so tax receipts were unusually large this July".

So this is a freak event, and August will be back to a "new normal" deficit of about $200 billion.  I expect the fiscal year 2020 deficit to be about $3.2 trillion, which is a huge number, but still less than the $4 trillion I previously thought it would be.  

The wildcard is if another stimulus bill is passed or if Trump's executive order in lieu of a spending bill is valid and what the cost of it will be.