The deficit in March was $163 Billion

 See: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61300/html

FYTD interest was $497 billion, so $95 billion for the month.

The Federal Reserve debt was $225.4 billion as of 3/26/25, so it increased $4.3 billion.

The Treasury General Account balance was $405.8 billion as of 3/31/25, so it decreased about $154 billion.  Since April will be a surplus because of tax revenue, this may last until July before it runs out of money and they need to raise the debt ceiling.

=============

Update: The FYTD (fiscal year to date) deficit is $1.307 trillion, the second highest it has ever been as of March 31, only behind fiscal year 2021. 

In Praise of Tariffs

 

The heart of America has always beat to the rhythm of hammers on steel, the hum of factories, and the pride of craftsmen shaping raw materials into something enduring. For too long, we’ve surrendered that heartbeat to the hollow clatter of foreign assembly lines. We traded our sovereignty, our dignity, and the well-being of our people for the fleeting convenience of cheaply made trinkets. But now, with tariffs reshaping the economic landscape, we stand at the threshold of a rebirth—a return to the essence of what made this nation unstoppable. This isn’t just about economics; it’s about resurrecting the soul of America.  Andrew Torba, Gab

Tether vs the Federal Reserve

 This is based on an article I read a few weeks ago that I can't find.  So take this all with a grain of salt and do your own research.

Could Tether be a competitor for the Dollar, or at least Federal Reserve Notes?  A dollar is just a unit of measurement, and Federal Reserve Notes (the cash you hold in your hand), bank deposits and credit cards are just implementations of it.  Tether is backed by US treasuries, ($126 billion if I remember this correctly), and it earns several billion dollars of interest per year.  The Fed loses money every month (because it is partly invested in Mortgage Backed Securities that only pay about 2% interest), although it can always print more.  

Can you get a bank account in Tether?  Not exactly, you have a wallet, which could get hacked.  With Tether you can either buy and sell Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) or convert it directly to the US dollar.  But you could keep a good chunk of your money in Bitcoin, convert it to Tether and then sell the Tether whenever you need it at a fixed $1 exchange rate.

To be continued ...

Parallels with the 1630s

 Read: https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/04/07/neo-iconoclasm/

One could certainly draw a parallel between the division between elitist (“papist” – itself a term synonymous with the modern left’s use of “nazi” or “fascist”) Catholics and Protestants in the 1630s, and the divide between the modern supranational elites and their useful idiots and the growing national populist movements across the western states.  But the more worrying parallel is with the introduction of a new media (the printing press then, social media today) which left the majority (on both sides of the divide) ill-equipped to distinguish between fact and slop.  Take a look at the quote from the Cornishman at the beginning of this post. [“Ill-affected posts which fly abroad in such swarms as are able to cloud the pure air of truth and present a dark ignorance to those who have not the two wings of justice and knowledge to fly above them.”] It was not written yesterday, but in 1641 (cited in Michael Braddick’s God’s Fury, England’s Fire: A New History of the English Civil Wars) and refers to the mushrooming volume of printed religious-political pamphlets of the period. 

Budget Resolution H.Con.Res.14

 It looks like this will pass. See https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/14

If this passes, that would be awesome.  It would set the debt held by the public to $48.6 trillion on 9/30/2034.  I previously projected it would be $56.2 trillion on the same date.

Note that every Democratic Senator voted against this, along with Sen Susan Collins and Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky.  I think Collins voted against it because it didn't raise the debt ceiling enough and Paul voted against it because it raised the debt ceiling too much.

Update (4/7/25): The Senate made changes and sent it back to the House.  I just glanced at it, but it looks like the Senate lowered the numbers.  Like in 2034, Debt Held By the Public would be $43,515,483,000,000 which is about $5 trillion less than the House plan.

Update (4/10/25): The news is reporting that this passed with a compromise bill.  I don't see the numbers on the version that passed but I will probably do a new post with the numbers when I see it, because I am really interested in this.  It is reportedly the Senate version less another $1.5 trillion in cuts. 

CBO Projects the Debt of $167 trillion by 2055

 First, read their actual report here: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61270

They don't say anything about the actual number, just the percent of GDP.  I previously projected GDP using forecasts from the Social Security Administration, which use an average nominal increase of 4.2% per year.  So now we can see what the picture should look like 30 years in the future, based entirely on government sources.

  
Year  GDP     % of GDP Debt
====  =====   ======== =====
2025  31,000  100      31,000
2035  46,000  118      54,000
2045  70,000  136      95,000
2055 107,000  156     167,000

I rounded all the numbers to the nearest trillion. What will the interest on $167 trillion be annually? At 4%, it would be $6.7 trillion per year. Do you think this is sustainable? The CBO doesn't.

In CBO’s projections, federal debt, measured in relation to the size of the economy, surpasses its historical peak in 2029. That large and growing debt has significant economic and financial consequences. Over time, it slows economic growth, drives up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, makes the nation’s fiscal position more vulnerable to an increase in interest rates, heightens the risk of a fiscal crisis, and increases the likelihood of other adverse outcomes.

What adverse outcomes?  They don't say, but either default on the national debt with or hyperinflation.  Probably including a bloody civil war.  Either way, the current system is unsustainable, and most people will lose everything.  When will this happen?  Certainly before 2055.  I last projected 2042, but maybe it could last a few more years.  So somewhere in the range of 2042 to 2054.

Update:  Correction, they do forecast GDP as follows:

2025 30,100
2035 43,900
2045 62,900
2055 88,400

So they are actually projecting debt held by the public to be $138 trillion, not $167 trillion in 2055.  But the warning remains the same - there will be increased likelihood of adverse outcomes.

All foreigners are out to screw us and it’s our job to screw them first

The quote was from John Connally in 1971. 

Trump is therefore not the first President to seek the controlled disintegration of the world economy by means of a devastating blow. Nor is he the first to purposely damage America’s allies to renew and prolong US hegemony. Nor the first who was prepared to hurt Wall Street in the short run in the process of strengthening US capital accumulation in the long term. Nixon had done all that half a century earlier.

Read: https://unherd.com/2025/04/will-liberation-day-transform-the-world/

Oleksandr Dubinsky

 This is a YouTube video of an interview with Oleksandr Dubinsky, who is a former Ukrainian Member of Parliament who was imprisoned for treason in November 2023.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7K8OSIant8 . It isn't clear how the video was done if he is in a Ukrainian prison.   You can watch it with the transcript on which makes it easier to understand.  This is worth watching.

Excerpt:

if we connect the dots it becomes clear that Ukraine is not a battleground between Russia and the West it is the front line in a global clash between left and right-wing ideas. ukraine has become the last stronghold of globalism and Zalinski is its figurehead in this struggle. there is no goal of securing Ukraine's victory - the only objective is to prolong the war. the idea is to entangle President Trump in this conflict to force him either to continue Biden's war or to pressure Ukraine into compromise thus giving his opponents ammunition to push for impeachment. this is a trap for Trump at the cost of Ukraine itself. zalinsky deliberately provoked confrontation with President Trump in order to sabotage any potential deals.

Things not to do in Mexico as a stupid American

 1. Go on a luxury all-inclusive $8,000 vacation to Cancun and charge it all to your American Express Platinum card.

2. While you are there, buy a $100,000 timeshare and also charge it to your Amex card.  This gives you a free vacation as a bonus.

3. When you get back home, you change your mind but instead of telling the company you want out of the timeshare contract, instead claim that someone stole your Amex card and challenge the charges totalling $117,000.

4. Go on the free vacation a month later.

5. The next year, go back to the SAME RESORT at a huge discount because you are now a member.

6. Brag about your not-so-little scam on Facebook.

7. The next year, go back to the SAME RESORT, without checking if there is a warrant for your arrest.  But this time, the police are waiting for you.  Get thrown in jail with no bail, pending felony fraud charges.

8.  Instead of hiring a Mexican attorney and making a deal, have your daughter complain about how you are being held hostage and tortured and how corrupt the Mexican legal system is and post it all over the internet. Also, mention that you are a US Navy veteran. Also, make a complaint to the US State Department, the governor of Michigan etc.  

9. Bonus points if you can get Trump to tweet about it.

https://nypost.com/2025/03/26/us-news/michigan-couple-paul-and-christy-akeo-held-in-mexican-maximum-security-prison-over-dispute-with-resort-daughter/

Update:  There is more to the story, of course.  The membership was for $1.3 million.  It was canceled because the timeshare company claimed they didn't abide by the agreement, and the $100,000 was just a payment.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TimeshareOwners/comments/1jaihqn/american_couple_arrested_in_cancun_airport_for/

Update 2:  There is much more more, and I don't care about all the drama. (And for the record, my facts above are mostly wrong.)  But I do want to note that the article says they do have an attorney, John Manly, who is a famous attorney who specializes in representing victims of sexual abuse.  However, they obviously need a Mexican attorney. 

Update 3/27/25:  The story hit CNN.  The couple claims the allegations against them are false, but they still don't have a Mexican attorney.  They want the US government to intervene. What a couple of losers, I hope they stay in prison the next 6 months.

Update 3/28/25:  They filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy on 8/29/24.  It is unclear if the plan was approved.  Why are they going on vacation if they are in bankruptcy proceedings?

Update 4/5/25:  The Michigan couple is free and back in Michigan.  They made a deal to pay the disputed $116,000 to a charity for Mexican orphans.

Moral of the story?  Don't dispute credit card charges and then brag about it on Facebook.

The price of gold hits $3000 per ounce

 

See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/04/gold-is-going-up-at-rate-of-25-per-month.html

About a year ago on 2/10/25, I posted that gold hit $2296.  The price of gold was $1,820 on 10/5/23, so it has increased 66% in under 18 months.  It doesn't show any signs of stopping, and it should hit $4000 within a year. 

Why does the government have to borrow money to run a deficit?

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/  Episode 12

Doesn't this cause hyperinflation?  The counter argument is what about Japan.  (But Japan didn't do this, the Central Bank has government bonds to secure the Yen they created).

Could the Central Bank treat this as an interest-free loan (or at 0.25% interest)?  So from the bank's perspective, they would have an asset, which is the loan, and a liability, the Treasury general account.  From Treasury's perspective, they would have an asset, cash (which they would promptly spend), and an offsetting liability - the loan owed to the Central Bank.

How does a loan from the Central Bank differ from a government bond?  (Well, anyone could own a bond, but the Central Bank would be the only owner of the loan).  There isn't really any practical difference.

How would the loan (or government bond) ever be paid back?  This is the real question.  For the accounting transaction to work, it must be a real liability.  But a loan (or bond) that is never paid back isn't a real loan, it is a gift.

Interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

 Read: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2002637/

I don't have time to fully read this right now but I think it is interesting.  He starts off by talking about the trend to have a single bathroom for both genders.

So, this split is motivated first of all by the departure from Christian values by the leadership of the Democratic party, in my view, by promoting without any limits the LGBTQ, whatever comes next, you know I mean one WC for any gender. I once found myself in Sweden where the OSCE was conducting a ministerial meeting and it was in a stadium specially arranged for the ministerial meeting, and I wanted to go out and I saw a WC sign, and I asked the guy who was accompanying me whether this was a gents or ladies. He said everybody. I don't want any of my friends to experience this themselves. And this is just of course a tiny manifestation of those divisions. But the Rust Belt America is of course not very much keen to embrace those values. 

When will the recession start?

 The DJIA had a high of 45,054 on Jan 31, 2025.  Today (March 13), it opened at 41,280, and it is dropping further.  So it is down approximately 10% from the high and will probably drop further.  How does this compare to the start of the Great Recession?

On Oct 9, 2007, the DJIA peaked at 14,164, which began a long decline which bottomed out on March 6, 2009 at 6,470, a drop of more than 50%.  The recession at that time officially began on December 1, 2007. (but that date wasn't declared until much later by the NBER).   So it is approximately a 2 month delay between the stock market peak and the start of a recession.

So the recession should begin on April 1, 2025, give or take a month.  (I previously predicted a recession starting Feb 1, 2025).

The Fed of course already has a script to follow, so we can predict with high confidence that there will be a rate cut of 0.75% on Tuesday, June 17, 2025 when there is a scheduled Federal Reserve OMC meeting. (The rate cut could be earlier, in May).  This is based on a 17-year cycle of an emergency rate cut of 0.75% on Jan 22, 2008, but delayed by 5 months.

I think Trump is intentionally causing a recession to force the Fed to cut rates.

The Ridiculous Political Puppet Show Part 2

 Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ridiculous-political-puppet-show-part-2

Who tweeted this?

House Democrats stand united for a four-week funding extension that stops harmful cuts, keeps government open to serve the people, and allows Congress to reach a bipartisan funding agreement. I'm ready to vote tomorrow or Friday to pass a four-week extension.

49 House Democrats posted the identical message.

If Democrats are all on a script and post the same thing it means they are not in control, someone else is giving the orders.

Ukrainian Peace Plan

1. Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory that it occupies, including Crimea, although there is the possibility of a lease of Crimea (with Russian paying billions of dollars annually).

2. A UN peacekeeping force to occupy a demilitarised zone along the Ukrainian-Russian border.

3. Russian leaders and Russian troops to be subject to a war crime tribunal.

4. Ukraine to immediately join NATO, with nuclear weapons placed on its territory, controlled by Europe (not the US).

5. Russia to pay reparations for all losses Ukraine has suffered.

6. Russia to resign from the United Nations Security Council.

7. All Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians who evacuated to be returned to Ukraine.

See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Is there any chance that Russia would agree to these terms?

Russian Peace Plan

 Read: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/russia-reparations-peace-details

This may be satire.

1. Ukraine to recognize Russian sovereignty over the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Crimea and these will no longer be Ukrainian.

2. Ukraine to recognize as Russian protectorates the regions of Nikolaev and Odessa from which Ukrainian troops will be banned.  These regions will have the right to self-determination, so they could be independent or join Russia in the future.  Also Belarus will administer Chernihiv region (which includes Chernobyl).

3. Russia has the right to have monitoring missions along Ukraine's western border.

4. Ukraine to pay reparations.

5. The government of Ukraine must have a pro-Russian orientation.  Zelensky is to resign (and kept in a Russian prison pending trial), and new elections held.

6. The current leaders of Ukraine will be prosecuted for war crimes.

7. All Orthodox church parishes must come under the Moscow Patriarchate headed by Patriarch Tikhon.

8. Ukraine renounce the idea of ever joining NATO.

9. Russian recognized as an official language of Ukraine.

Do you think this is an acceptable roadmap to peace?  It seems like it has to be a joke, but the author seems to be serious.

Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme and how to fix it

 Read: https://www.birchgold.com/blog/news/social-security-warning/

Elon Musk said  “Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.”

The assurance that workers will receive benefits when they retire does not depend on the particular tax used to finance the benefits or on any “trust fund.” It depends solely on the expectation that future Congresses will honor promises made by earlier Congresses – what supporters call “a compact between the generations” and opponents call a Ponzi scheme.  It’s a Ponzi scheme that American workers (both citizens and non-citizens) are forced to participate in.

According to the managers of the Social Security Trust, their reserves will run out in 2035. They’ve been using those reserves to make up for the shortfall in revenue collection – for every dollar that comes in, more than a dollar goes out… For now.  Unless something changes, in 2035, benefits will drop by 17%.

My solution, which obviously won't happen:  

1. Abolish the Social Security Trust fund, which is a myth, and forgive the National Debt associated with it, which won't be repaid anyways.  Exorcise the ghosts of Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan and others who lead us into this suicide pact.  Formally recognize that Social Security is a welfare benefit (which can be cut) and not an entitlement.

2. Freeze all benefits at the current levels, and get rid of COLA (cost of living adjustments).  Anyone who retires in the future must accept the current 2025 benefit levels.

3. Eliminate Social Security taxes on any income below the current federal minimum wage (currently $7.25 per hour, or approximately $15,000).  It is a terribly unfair to have teenagers who make minimum wage pay into the system to subsidize wealthier retirees when the system won't be there for them.  This is akin to child abuse - it is brainwashing poor young people to support an unfair system.

4. Pay the cost of Social Security out of the general budget, similar to how Medicaid is paid for.

5. Work on a long-term plan, which will be a general pension fund managed at the state level.   Each person would declare a state citizenship and they would get California Social Security or whatever.  They could move benefits between states with a 5 year notice.

6.  Also, allow people to opt out of it and invest in a private plan instead.  This would require them to subsidize the old system even though they will never get benefits from it.

See also https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/10/social-security-musk-ponzi-scheme-benefits/

The February 2025 deficit was $308 Billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $308 billion in February 2025, CBO estimates—$11 billion more than the deficit recorded last February. The federal budget deficit totaled $1.1 trillion [actually $1.147 trillion] in the first five months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $319 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $37 billion (or 2 percent) higher, and outlays were $356 billion (or 13 percent) higher.   https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61196/html

How much was net interest for the month?  YTD interest as of 2/28/25 is $402 billion, and it was $327 billion as of 1/31/25, so net interest for the month is $75 billion.

The Federal Reserve had a debt of $224 billion as of 2/26/25 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW) up from $221.1 billion as of 1/29/25, so it increased $2.9 billion for the month.

The Treasury General Account closing balance was $559.6 billion as of 2/28/25, down from $793 billion as of 1/31/25, a drop of $233.4 billion.  This nest egg will probably last until mid-June when it will need to be replenished.

Operation Mockingbird

 After Trump kicked Zelensky out of the Oval Office last Friday (Feb 28), European leaders thought it would be cute to post the same message on X.  The message:

Your dignity honours the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President @ZelenskyyUa. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.

This identical message was posted by the following:

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen

President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola

European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis 

European Parliament member Manfred Weber

European Council President António Costa

The messages were all sent within 15 minutes of each other.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/european-leaders-flamed-creepy-pro-zelenskyy-posts-read-exactly-same

My guess is that the same person manages all of their social media accounts and didn't think about how odd this would look.

Democratic Senators or Puppets

 Why would these Senators make videos with the same script word for word?  Are they just really lazy or are these deepfakes or are they being controlled?  It is bizarre no matter what the explanation is, and these "distinguished" Senators have diminished themselves.  Here is the script:

The video opened with a short clip of Trump vowing to lower the cost of living for Americans beginning on the first day of his presidency. "Shit that ain't true, That's what you just saw.  Since day one of Donald Trump's presidency, prices are up, not down. Inflation is getting worse, not better. The prices of groceries, gas, housing, eggs, they're all getting more expensive. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has done nothing to lower costs for you.  Instead, he's pardoned violent criminals who beat police officers on January 6," the videos continued, cutting from the senators to show a clip from the protest at the Capitol.  "He's letting Elon Musk take a chainsaw to vital government programs. And then, even worse, giving him access to Americans' most sensitive data — Social Security numbers, tax returns, health care bills. Trump and Musk are firing thousands of essential workers and freezing funding for vital programs.  Why are they doing this? Trump, Musk, DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] are taking these vital services away from you for one reason only: so they can give tax breaks to their billionaires' club, they added. Billionaires win; families lose. And that is the truth.

And here are the puppets who are being told what to say:

Senators Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)
Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.),
Cory Booker (D-N.J.),
Dick Durbin (Ill.),
Chris Coons (Del.),
Tammy Baldwin (Wis.),
Tammy Duckworth (Ill.),
Tim Kaine (Va.),
Chris Van Hollen (Md.),
Gary Peters (Mich.),
Mazie Hirono (Hawaii),
Peter Welch (Vt.),
Ben Ray Luján (N.M.),
Martin Heinrich (N.M.),
Jeff Merkley (Ore.),
Mark Kelly (Ariz.), 
Brian Schatz (Hawaii),
Andy Kim (N.J.),
Alex Padilla (Calif.),
Mark Warner (Va.),
Richard Blumenthal (Conn.),
Angela Alsobrooks (Md.),
Ed Markey (Mass.),
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.),
and Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.).

Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/25-dem-senators-parrot-same-script-in-videos-slamming-trump-musk

https://x.com/InsiderWire/status/1896965208830308778

The Democrats want to shut down the government on March 15

Say Democrats vote against a clean spending bill in the House and allow a shutdown to occur: Musk might have dismissed tens of thousands of federal workers, but Uncle Sam still employs more than 2 million more who would be furloughed without pay.  Amid the finger-pointing, Republicans would call vote after vote to reopen government agencies — casting Democrats as the ones who are repeatedly choosing to keep agencies shut and employees home without paychecks. 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/03/04/house-democrats-shutdown-doge-00205584

Trump, the evil genius, is playing 10-D chess.  The Democrats don't like spending cuts, so in protest they shut the whole thing down, showing how worthless most bureaucrats are.  They aren't going to win this, because they need the government open more than the Republicans do.  Its like a union going on strike - can they outlast management who now doesn't have to pay the wages of the strikers?    

And then Trump is intentionally causing a recession with cutting government spending and imposing tariffs.  This will force the Fed to cut rates, which is what Trump wants.  

How Janet Yellen intentionally set a $9 trillion trap for Scott Bessent

 There are $9.2 trillion of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds expiring that must be refinanced in 2025.  Until 2021, the long term interest rates were under 2%.  Yellen could have sold more bonds at the long end of the curve, but she choose to sell them short-term.  Now this must all be refinanced at 4.25% (or higher) interest.

Read: https://confoundedinterest.net/2025/03/02/yellens-folly-treasury-secretary-bessent-faces-refinancing-of-9-trillion-in-treasury-debt-in-2025-thanks-biden-pelosi-schumer/

Unleash the warrior within

 Read: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14452983/trump-fuels-rumors-white-house-takedown-zelensky-promoting-elaborate-theory.html

Amid speculation that President Trump and JD Vance planned an Oval Office ambush of Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump has now posted an analysis by a martial arts instructor who called it a 'setup.' Trump, who played a round of golf at his West Palm Beach course Sunday, posted a write-up by the head of an Arizona karate dojo who took on the idea that the angry White House meeting went off the rails by accident – instead calling it 'brilliant strategy.' The article acknowledged segments of public revulsion of what happened – but speculated that Trump and Vance maneuvered to outflank Zelensky during the televised smack-down, comparing the president to a 'master chess player.' 'So what you witnessed tonight was a setup. Trump and JD Vance knew that the only way to achieve peace was to strategically align, at least on the surface, with Russia. Why? Because Russia would never sign a peace treaty if Ukraine were admitted into NATO,' wrote Michael McCune in his posting on his Facebook group page.  The page links him with the dojo where he is an instructor, with the tag 'Karate-Do way of life' and the slogan 'unleash the warrior within.'  Trump snipped the text below the 'setup' line, instead including an image of the bottom of his post on his Truth Social site without the full link, identifying McCune only by his name without any other identifying information. However the full post is available online. 'Now, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to back down and accept Trump's terms. But here’s the genius part—Trump is actually protecting Ukraine without dragging the U.S. into war,' it said. The post says the rare earth minerals deal negotiated by both sides – which was completed but left unsigned after the blowup – 'ensures that Americans will be involved in Ukraine’s mining industry. This prevents Russia from launching an invasion, because attacking Ukraine would mean endangering American lives—something that would force the U.S. to respond.' 'Trump played both sides like a master chess player. In the end, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to concede, because without U.S. support, Ukraine cannot win a prolonged war against Russia. And once U.S. companies have mining operations in Ukraine, Putin will be unable to attack without triggering massive international consequences. 'Don’t underestimate Donald Trump. In this game of chess, he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone,' he concluded.

Comment:  Zelensky is an idiot.  All he can say is: "Putin bad, Ukraine is a victim, give me money in unlimited amounts, forever".  He needs to trust Trump, who actually has a plan that Zelensky can't understand.  

Transhumanism is Slavery

The dominant techno-optimist ideology of our time—a reckless fusion of Nietzschean will-to-power, accelerationist dogma, and neoliberal market absolutism—is not just misguided but fundamentally anti-human. It does not seek to serve humanity but to surpass it, viewing human beings as a temporary evolutionary step toward a post-biological order. Its adherents do not merely disrupt industries; they aim to rewrite human nature itself, treating moral limits as obsolete constraints and communities as relics to be dismantled. Beneath their utopian rhetoric lies a nihilistic project: the replacement of embodied souls with disembodied data, of sacred life with machine logic.

https://news.gab.com/2025/02/the-transhumanist-delusion/

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future

 This looks like a very interesting book that I haven't read yet.  Available here: https://archive.org/details/ElonMuskTeslaSpaceX/mode/2up

A version of this, called "Elon Musk and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, Young Readers Edition" was produced in 2019 for a cost of $17,054, funded by USAID.  Ironically, this is the agency that Musk is trying to shut down.

Update:  This is Retrofuturism, with retro being 2019, which seems like ancient history now.

I mentioned this before somewhere but the total National Debt was only $23.2 trillion on 12/31/2019, whereas now it is $36.2 trillion.

The Egg Shortage Plandemic

 In 2020, eggs prices cost an average of $1.51 per dozen.  Today (Feb 24, 2025), it is virtually impossible to buy eggs because they are sold out, and when you can buy them, the cost is about $8 per dozen.  

Why is this? Because the US Department of Agriculture has ordered the killing of hundreds of millions of chickens because they may be infected with bird flu (H5N1).  The only problem is that the bird flu is a massive fraud that exceeds even COVID-19.  The PCR test is fake and there is no bird flu.  The CDC and USDA are run by psychopaths.

Read this: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/avian-flu-virus-h5n1-no-proof-for

Also: https://sashalatypova.substack.com/p/faking-fakery-the-prequel-how-theranos

Wait! What am I talking about? PCR is not a diagnostic. Except, the CDC goons are currently slaughtering and mRNA-poisoning all 300M+ healthy chickens in the US based on the fake PCR tests of “H5N1 virus”… but nevermind! Reasonable, thoughtful, health freedom-minded scientists do not claim it’s a diagnostic. They talk about “facts and fears of avian flu”, “leaky vaccines”, etc. omitting the only true fact - H5N1 or avian flu is a fake. 

A Debt Spiral and US Financial Collapse in the 2030s

 Read:  https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/02/a-debt-spiral-and-us-financial-collapse-in-the-2030s.html

The U.S. national debt is currently $37 trillion, and it’s growing at a rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. This translates to an annual increase of approximately $3.65 trillion (since there are about 365 days in a year, and $1 trillion every 100 days equals 3.65 increments per year). If this pace continues unchecked, the debt could reach insane levels:

In 5 years [2030]: $37 trillion + (5 × $3.65 trillion) = $55.25 trillion
In 10 years [2035]: $37 trillion + (10 × $3.65 trillion) = $73.5 trillion
In 20 years [2045]: $37 trillion + (20 × $3.65 trillion) = $110 trillion

Conclusion: High Risk by the mid-2030s and pretty certain doom by 2045

USSR-style Collapse: Not imminent, but a debt crisis could emerge in 10–20 years (2034–2044) if the debt grows unchecked at $1 trillion every 100 days, reaching $73.5–$110 trillion. A sudden collapse is less likely than a prolonged struggle.

Hyperinflation and Interest Rate/Inflation Spiral: Could begin within 10 years (by 2034) if debt servicing costs spiral and confidence in the dollar weakens, with hyperinflation possible soon after.

Loss of Reserve Currency Status: A gradual shift to Bitcoin, the Euro, or the Yuan might occur over 20–30 years (2044–2054), though a faster transition by 2030 is possible if a crisis accelerates.

Comment:  The author seems to think that the increase in debt is linear, whereas actually it will be like compounding interest.  I am forecasting a $110 trillion debt to the public level (which is less than the total national debt) in 2045 as well.

Could we just adjust to the higher debt level in 2045, which is about 3 times the current level?  After all, what was it 20 years ago in 2005?  About $8 trillion.  So it has increased more than 4.5 times since then.

Mystery Man

 

Who is this?

I am really curious as to who this man is.  He is to the left of Pete Hegseth in Brussels, and is probably an American.  I haven't tried too hard to identify him but here is the first guess according to Yandex Images.

Arturs Karins (Krišjānis Kariņš), former Prime Minister of Latvia.

But I don't think that is him.  Why would the former Prime Minister of Latvia be walking next to Pete Hegseth?  Any other guesses?

I guess I should say, wrong answers only.

 ===================================

Guess #2 also according to Yandex:

Nikolai Denkov, former Prime Minister of Bulgaria.  I also don't think it is him as they look nothing alike except for the glasses.

Guess #3 according to Google Image search:

Woody Johnson, former US Ambassador to the UK.  It's definitely not him.  

Guess #4

It's definitely not Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO

Guess #5

Not Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense.

Guess #6

Not Bruno Le Maire of France.

Guess #7

Not Andrzej Duda, President of Poland. 

Guess #8

Could it be Jens Stoltenberg of Norway, former Secretary General of NATO?  Maybe, but probably not.

Guess #9

Dietmar Bartsch, German politician?  No

Guess #10, from Google image search

David F Helvey, former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs.  Maybe, but probably not.  Upon looking again, I think this is the guy.

Another picture of David Helvey from here.  His title is now Deputy Defense Advisor in the US Mission to NATO.

The OODA Loop

 This is Sun Tzu The Art of War type stuff.  OODA means Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.  It means that you interrupt your enemies decision-making process, watch how they react, and then do something else that interrupts their decision making, and it throws them off balance.  It puts you in charge.

"If you could implement the OODA-loop faster than your enemy, then you were “inside” his decision-making cycle.  And they would die.  The key aspect of the OODA-loop is the “loop” — this wasn’t a one-time exercise, but a series of connected actions, each feeding off the other. You took an action and then observed the enemy’s reaction. You orient on the reaction, and decide which option is best before acting. The enemy now reacts. And the cycle repeats. Until the enemy dies. The goal is not to let up once engaged, to keep the enemy reacting to your actions until you have them where you want them."

Read:   https://consortiumnews.com/2025/02/17/scott-ritter-trumps-munich-strategy/

This is the game Trump is playing with the European Union.

Biden and his predecessors delivered a stinking fiscal and monetary mess to Trump

 Read: https://rogerboyd.substack.com/p/trumps-fiscal-hole-an-emperor-in

The US combination of high government debt to GDP (and very high overall public and private debt to GDP), a high government deficit even with a growing economy, and a 4% of GDP current account deficit places it in the worst position relative to other Western nations; only excepting a Japan that went into full on debt monetization many years ago.  Rating agencies estimate a 7.5% of GDP US deficit in both 2025 and 2026, given Trump’s stated plan to renew his expiring tax cuts and provide more for the rich oligarchs, and the small majority that the Republicans have in the Congress. Hence the emergence of DOGE under Elon Musk tasked with rapidly reducing expenditures.

Note: The 7.5% of GDP deficit prediction caught my attention.  I just got through predicting the 2025 deficit as $2.1 trillion, which is 6.9% of GDP.  A 7.5% of GDP deficit in 2025 would be $2.3 trillion, which is another $200 billion.

Projected Debt reaches limit in 2042

 

Here is my chart of projected deficits, interest and debt.  This builds on my previous forecast of Projected Government Spending (ex Interest) through 2040.  My calculation of interest is simple and probably wrong.  It is just 4% of the Debt to the Public at the end of the previous fiscal year.  So this indicates a breaking point in 2042.  Compare this to my previous forecast that indicated a breaking point in 2059.  And the one before that which saw a breaking point in 2039.

The main difference between this and the CBO forecast is that I project much higher interest costs.  I think that they are vastly underestimating interest expenses.  It makes sense to me to base interest on the amount of debt, instead of GDP.  

So what do I think will happen in 2042, give or take a few years?  Most likely inflation will rise above 10% or even go into hyperinflation, making our financial system unrecognizable.

What about DOGE cutting spending?  I don't think it will make much of a difference, the swamp is too deep and can't be drained.  Maybe they could cut spending by $100 billion per year, but it won't make a very big difference.

Magical Money Tree - the next generation

 

Source: https://www.mmted.org/smithfamily/

Hey kids, here is some more propaganda, err "education" for you.  Learn how old people are greedy and stupid and that you know the "truth" which is that the government can solve all the economic problems with the Magical Money Tree and there is no need to raise taxes or cut spending or lay off people.

Projected Government Spending (ex Interest) through 2040

 This is my chart of Projected Government Spending through 2040.  I am just taking the GDP I developed in a prior step and then using the same percentages that CBO does.  I see a couple of weird dips, like in 2029, spending is supposed to drop from 20.3% of GDP to 19.9% of GDP - why is that?  Also, it drops from 20.7% in 2033 to 20.3% in 2034 to 20.0% in 2035.  If anything, I would expect it to increase because that is around the time that the Social Security trust fund will run out.

 

Note that this does not include interest on the national debt, and so this does not show the total projected deficits.  In 2024, the actual spending, excluding interest, was $5.802 trillion, and interest was $950 billion, for total spending of $6.752 trillion. 

Another thing, I don't know why the CBO projects these to the nearest billion, to make them seem more precise than they are.

Projected Tax Revenue through 2040

 This is the second step in my financial projections which is the calculation of revenue.  I am using 17% of GDP as an average.  (Note that in 2024 the revenue was 16.7% of GDP).  

The CBO in their models assumes that revenue as a percent of GDP will rise almost every year, from 17.1% of GDP in 2025 to 18.6% in 2040 all the way to 19.3% in 2055 if you look at their latest Long-Term Budget Projection.  They don't explain why revenue as a percent of GDP will rise every year.  I think it is wishful thinking on their part. (See my commentary on the Closure Rule).  The 2026 increase could be explained because the Trump tax cuts of 2017 were supposed to end at the end of 2025, but that still doesn't explain why revenue as a percent of GDP will keep rising.  And I think it is likely that the tax cuts will be extended. 

So here is my forecast of tax revenues, with the CBO numbers as a comparison.  I am actually pretty close to their numbers, but slightly less.

  

Gold Rush

 

Source: https://goldprice.org/

The price of gold jumped $68 today, and at this rate it will exceed $3000 per ounce within a few days.  It was as low as $1820/ounce on on 10/5/23 and since then the price has soared and it doesn't appear to be stopping.

See also: https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/04/gold-is-going-up-at-rate-of-25-per-month.html  At that time in April 2024, the price of gold was $2296 and I commented that it was increasing at the rate of 2.5% per month and 30% annually.  Actually it has increased 41.75% over the last year.

Also watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdpf34TyVI0  A "Gold Run" May Have Begun at the Bank of England.  Everyone who has gold at the Bank of England is trying to get their gold out and gold that is located there is selling at a discount.  This is because people believe that the BOE doesn't actually have their gold because they lent it out.

See also: Bank of England suffers exodus of gold bullion .  Thousands of gold bars have been withdrawn from the Bank of England’s vaults since the end of last year amid fears around the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war. Threadneedle Street said roughly 8,000 bars had been moved out of its vaults in the past couple of months, representing around 2pc of the total stock. Sir Dave Ramsden, a deputy governor of the Bank, said it had been inundated with requests after gold prices on the futures market in New York surged above the London cash price. The wait to withdraw bullion stored in the Bank’s vaults has risen from a few days to several weeks as traders rush to take advantage of differences in price.

Projected GDP through 2040

 I feel like making another financial projection of the deficit and the place to start is the GDP forecast.  My previous forecast assumed an average nominal GDP growth rate of 5.5%.  I think this is too high, and for here I am using a 4.2% average nominal GDP growth.  This comes from the Social Security projected growth rate using intermediate assumptions. The Social Security projections actually go out through 2100, but for this I will only go through 2040.  The 4.2% projections are actually higher than the ones CBO uses in their January 2025 report, which are about 3.8%.  The CBO projections never get adjusted to actual GDP so I think I have a better starting point.  Also, note that I start with the BEA number for 3rd quarter 2024, which is $29.35 trillion (which I round to $29.4T). 

So here are the numbers, rounded to the nearest 100 billion, using a simplified format so it can be embedded.  These are the fiscal year projections (as of September 30) of each year.

GDP Projected

Forecast 4.20%

-------    ----------

2024 29,400

2025 30,600

2026 31,900

2027 33,200

2028 34,600

2029 36,100

2030 37,600

2031 39,200

2032 40,800

2033 42,500

2034 44,300

2035 46,200

2036 48,100

2037 50,100

2038 52,200

2039 54,400

2040 56,700

The engineered housing crash and planned takeover of housing by hedge funds

 

Watch the video, it is very interesting.  This is going on right now in real time.  Housing prices are way too high and need to come down about 25%, foreclosures are skyrocketing, and hedge funds are poised to buy up houses at huge discounts.

Update:  Blogger won't show the correct video, but here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/embed/4hejP3CV6wQ

The woman who can't be fired

Ellen Weintraub, Commissioner-for-Life of the Federal Electoral Commission

Ellen Weintraub was appointed as commissioner of the Federal Election Commission in 2002 by President George W Bush.  She received a salary of $158,500 in 2023 (according to this source).  

According to her, she was appointed for life and can't be fired except under certain circumstances.  However, Trump fired her anyway by turning off her email, taking her computer and disabling her pass that allows her to go in the building. According to her, she can be fired only by a President replacing her when her term has expired.  However, her term expired in 2007 and she has apparently never been re-appointed.  Apparently, she thinks the only way to fire her would be to explicitly appoint her for another term, and then when what term ends, she could be fired.

This should be interesting to watch.

A Unified Theory of Trump’s Hyperactive Start

 https://www.thefp.com/p/a-unified-theory-of-trumps-hyperactive

You create a debate over the issues knowing that, because of polarization, at least one-third of the American public is going to take your side, and sometimes much more than that. These are your investments in changing the culture. And do it with as many issues as possible, as quickly as possible (reread Ezra Klein on this). Think of it as akin to an early Jordan Peterson cranking out all those videos. Flood the zone. That is how you have an impact in an internet intensive, attention-at-a-premium world.

You will not win all of these cultural debates, but you will control the ideological agenda (I hesitate to call it an “intellectual” agenda, but it is). Your opponents will be dispirited and disorganized, just like the Democrats today. Then just keep on going. In the long run, you may end up “owning” far more of the culture than you suspected was possible.

The government will go dark on March 15, 2025

Read:   https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/04/government-shutdown-trump-funding-freeze-00202533  

While the Democratic leader in the House demands that Trump’s funding freeze be “choked off” as part of any funding agreement, Republican lawmakers say it will be Democrats who take the fall for causing a funding lapse if they hold that line. And so the shutdown blame game begins again. The exasperated Democrats sitting opposite Cole at the negotiating table say any good faith agreement with their GOP counterparts is meaningless if Trump disregards the will of Congress by using “impoundment” to withhold funding they pass into law. “If the White House is not going to honor an agreement and use impoundment, then it is hard to come to agreement,” Washington Sen. Patty Murray , the Senate’s top Democratic appropriator, said in a brief interview Tuesday.

That is only 37 days away.  The government shutdown that had been scheduled for December 21, 2024 has been postponed until March 15, 2025.  Aggravating factors:

1. Trump wants the debt ceiling also included in any deal. (At least he did in December).

2. Trump wants to make spending cuts and use impoundment.   So ironically, the Democrats who don't want spending cuts, will refuse to make a deal, which will result in the shutdown.  They don't have any leverage here.

3. The hard core right, I guess that includes me, wants further spending cuts and will reject a compromise bill.  Meanwhile, the Democrats won't support it because there are too many cuts.  So the votes aren't there.

4. Also, don't forget the BTFP will expire on March 10, 2025, which may cause a banking crisis because many banks are reliant on it.  Update: The BTFP is already shut down and this didn't cause an issue, so scratch this.

Shut it all down!

Update: 5. According to Thomas Massie, the Democrats will insist on fully funding US AID as a price of avoiding a government shutdown.  So the Republicans will have to agree to fund US AID in order to reopen the government. Or else not agree and keep the government closed.  Hmm, tough decision.

=================

Update: The Democrats agree that the government should shut down.   https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2025/02/10/rep-hoyle-dems-wont-fund-the-government-if-it-undermines-the-american-people/

Representative Val Hoyle (D-OR) said on Monday on CNN’s “News Central” that Democratic lawmakers will not vote to fund the government if Republicans are advancing President Donald Trump’s agenda, which “undermines the American people.” Host John Berman said, “What can you do about this? There are some raising the possibility of shutting down the government in March, when some of these funding bills come up for a vote. Do you think Democrats should stand in the way?”  They will need Democratic votes to pass this budget. And fundamentally we’re not going to vote for something that undermines the American people.”

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) in 67 Bullet Points

I am just making a note of this:  https://mmt101.substack.com/p/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-in-67  The phrase "Taxes don't pay for spending" is repeated 9 times.  If you don't need taxes for spending, then you should abolish the IRS.  Also, the Treasury doesn't need to issue bonds anymore, it can just spend whatever it wants.  

GDP is now $29.7 trillion

 Earlier today, I posted my unhappiness with the BEA not telling us the actual GDP in trillions.   It turns out that they didn't mention it because they didn't think it was important, but I found the actual number.  Go to their announcement, now do a search on "key source data and assumptions", which is hyperlinked, and click on it to download a spreadsheet called "https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/gdpkeysource-4q24-adv.xlsx".  Open it, and go to the Advance tab.  On the line that says "Gross Domestic Product", under the column "2024Q4", it is listed as 29,700.6.

So the ratio of Debt to the Public ($28.8 trillion) divided by GDP ($29.7 trillion) is 97%.  This is almost the same as one year ago with Debt to the Public of $27.0 trillion divided by GDP of $27.9 trillion to get 96.8%.  The debt and GDP both went up $1.8 trillion.

Even Progressives Now Worry About the Federal Debt

 https://dnyuz.com/2025/01/30/even-progressives-now-worry-about-the-federal-debt/

The main concern, says Danny Yagan, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, is a tipping point that forces a sudden and catastrophic adjustment.  He cites a 1998 paper that likened the deficit not to a long term drag on growth — such as a termite infestation that gradually erodes the foundations of a house — but rather to a risky gamble, like not buying home insurance. If the fiscal house catches fire, perhaps because investors lose confidence in the government’s ability to pay back its debt, the options are not good: They include defaulting, forcing banks to hold more Treasuries, running inflation high so the debt recedes, or cramming down spending, all of which could cause a recession.  The reason that gamble looks increasingly risky is that large deficits could be starting to push up interest rates (“r” in economics lingo) while growth (“g”) remains steady. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that debt will continue to increase, which forces higher interest payments, creating an upward spiral.  “Under C.B.O.’s projections, that’s going to slowly increase r relative to g until about 2040, when r is greater than g, and then debt starts to explode on its own,” said Dr. Yagan, who served in the Biden administration’s Office of Management and Budget and co-founded the Budget Lab at Yale. “That’s what people are worried about.”

BEA says that GDP increased but doesn't say how much

 Read: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2024-advance-estimate

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024".

Pardon my French, but this is BS.  It is meaningless.  The press release doesn't say what GDP actually is.  I did a search on the word "trillion", but it isn't in there.  Compare that to the previous release, which states "Current dollar GDP increased 4.7 percent at an annual rate, or $333.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.35 trillion."  Also this: "Current dollar GDP increased 5.0 percent at an annual rate, or $358.2 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $29.37 trillion, an upward revision of $20.6 billion from the previous estimate".

First, they are using mind tricks with Real GDP vs Current GDP, based on what they think inflation is.  Then they say Real GDP increased 2.3% and Current GDP increased 4.5% but this is an annual rate and not a quarterly rate.  Are they saying  that current GDP increased by 1.125% in the quarter (4.5% divided by 4)?  

I am not happy with the obfuscation.  So until they straight up tell me what Current Dollar GDP is, I am using the previous number, $29.37 trillion. 

Why is this important?  Because they use debt as a percent of GDP and justify rising debt because the percent of GDP doesn't increase very much.  So lets look at the current situation as of December 31 for 2023 and 2024.

As of December 31, 2023, Debt to the Public is $27.0 trillion and GDP was $27.9 trillion for a Debt to GDP ration of 97%.

As of December 31, 2024 Debt to the  Public is $28.837 trillion (rounded to $28.8 trillion) and GDP was $29.4 trillion (rounded) for a ratio of 98%.  So the ratio went up by 1%, which is not good news but its not horrible news.  

The BEA will release a second estimate of 4th Quarter GDP in about a month.

================================

I am trying to not post as much, so I will say a few more things in my now less frequent post.  First, I predicted on December 18 that the Fed would cut rates on Jan 28, 2025 and they didn't, so I was wrong.  It was freaky how much the Fed followed a 17 year pattern, but maybe the pattern has been broken.  Or maybe they will still cut rates in a month or two, and the 17 year pattern is just extended slightly.  I previously predicted a recession to begin on February 1, 2025, but maybe this will be delayed a few months.

Second, I just want to mention the Federal Reserve Deficit.  It was $210.97 billion as of 11/27/24, and $216.6 billion as of 1/1/2025.  And then as of 1/29/25 the number is $221.1 billion.  So it is increasing about $5 billion per month.  As I mentioned before, this is free money for billionaires. And part of the reason there is this deficit is because of the 3% mortgages that are still out there. 

Third, I think there are some similarities between 2023 and 2025.  On 12/30/22, the public debt was $24.5 trillion, and it increased to about $24.6 trillion by the end of January 2023, and then it pretty much froze there until about June 1, 2023 when the debt ceiling was lifted. It hit the $25 trillion mark on 6/10/23, and then quickly hit $26 trillion on 8/31/23.   

Right now, the Debt to the Public is still about $28.85 trillion, and it will probably remain there until about June 1.  I think we will not see $29 trillion public debt until June 2025, and then $30 trillion within a few months.  After that, if there is a recession, then we can expect this to rise a trillion every 90 days.

 =============================

Update:  I am still upset that BEA is playing games with the actual numbers, but I do know how to calculate.  On 1/30/2024, they said that Current dollar GDP is $27.94 trillion. On yesterday's press release, they said that current dollar GDP increased at a 4.5% rate, which would make it $29.2 trillion. In the above calculation I used $29.4 trillion, so I will stick with that until I am further enlightened.

While I am on the topic, if the government hypothetically decided to do a stimulus program of $1 trillion (for easy math), and that all went into GDP and that amount was borrowed, it would increase both the numerator and denominator.  If the numerator is greater than the denominator, then the ratio would actually decrease.  For example, current total national debt is about $36.2 trillion and GDP is $29.4 trillion.  The ratio is 123%.  If both of these numbers went up by $1 trillion then the ratio would drop to 122%.  So the cure for more spending is ... more spending.  What if the reverse happened, Elon finds $1 trillion of wasteful government spending (not too hard to find), so GDP drops $1 trillion (but the national debt would not decrease), so $36.2 trillion divided by $28.4 trillion is 127%.  So if you live in their world of lying with statistics, government spending more is good, but cutting government spending is bad. I hate these magic bull caca artists.