Read: https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/candace-owens-and-the-decay-of-the-american-brain
The author, someone named Nathan J Robinson, really hates Candace Owens and wants you to hate her too. I think he has too much time on his hands. Candace Owens has some interesting ideas and I like listening to her and watching her sometimes. Some of her ideas may be crazy. But the fact that some British snob doesn't like her may be a badge of honor.
The federal government incurred a deficit of $155 billion in November 2025, CBO estimates— $212 billion less than the deficit recorded last November. The federal budget deficit totaled $439 billion in October and November 2025, the first two months of fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $185 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $73 billion (or 6 percent) lower, and revenues were $112 billion (or 18 percent) higher.
The Net Interest on the Public Debt was $185 billion fiscal year to date. For some reason, they don't tell you what it was just for November. Since October was $91 billion, November was $94 billion.
Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-12/61308-MBR.pdf
The Federal Reserve actually had a small surplus of about $400 million in November, so it looks like its days of losing massive amounts of money are over. Their cumulative deficit as of 11/26/25 was $243.2 billion. They need to get this back to zero, which will take many years to do.
The receipts in October were $404 billion, and the outlays were $689 billion. The outlays were higher than any month in FY 2025 except August when they were also $689 billion.
If you think October is bad, just wait until November, which usually has the highest monthly deficit. Last year the November 2024 deficit was $367 billion and in November 2023 it was $317 billion.
Medicare spending was $151 billion in October, up from $77 billion in October 2024 and $24 billion in October 2023. What is up with that?
1 Jakarta Indonesia 41914 2 Dhaka Bangladesh 36585 3 Tokyo Japan 33413 4 New Delhi India 30222 5 Shanghai China 29559 6 Guangzhou China 27563 7 Cairo Egypt 25566 8 Manila Philippines 24735 9 Kolkata India 23768 10 Seoul, South Korea 22490 11 Karachi Pakistan 21423 12 Mumbai India 20203 13 São Paulo Brazil 18950 14 Bangkok Thailand 18180 15 Ciudad de México, Mexico 17734 16 Beijing China 17013 17 Lahore Pakistan 15156 18 Istanbul Turkey 15015 19 Moscow, Russia 14525 20 Ho Chi Minh City Viet Nam 14053 21 Buenos Aires Argentina 14018 22 New York City, US 13920 23 Shenzhen China 13878 24 Bengaluru India 13187 25 Osaka Japan 12964 26 Lagos Nigeria 12792 27 Los Angeles, US 12740 28 Luanda Angola 11370 29 Chennai India 11153 30 Kinshasa, DR Congo 10944 31 Bogotá Colombia 10624 32 Lima Peru 10580 33 London UK 10416 34 Hajipur India 9942 35 Rio de Janeiro Brazil 9500 36 Paris France 9382 37 Hyderabad India 9191 38 Tehran, Iran 9175 39 Taipei, Taiwan 9137 40 Bandung Indonesia 8909 41 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia 8444 42 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 7795 43 Suzhou China 7731 44 Ahmedabad India 7632 45 Hangzhou China 7500 46 Wuhan China 7364 47 Tianjin China 7285 48 Alexandria Egypt 7267 49 Nagoya Japan 7146 50 Johannesburg South Africa 7077Source: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2025_wup2025_summary_of_results.pdf
Actually, we have no idea what GDP is. The $30.4 trillion at the end of FY 2025 is what I had forecast about 6 months ago, and I think that number came from a Social Security projection. This number is still bigger than the Debt to the Public number, for now.
BEA is now shutdown until the government reopens. No loss. The whole debt to GDP ratio is heavily manipulated anyways.
“The Biden Autopen Presidency will go down as one of the biggest political scandals in U.S. history. As Americans saw President Biden’s decline with their own eyes, Biden’s inner circle sought to deceive the public, cover-up his decline, and took unauthorized executive actions with the autopen that are now invalid,” said Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.). “Our report reveals how key aides colluded to mislead the public and the extraordinary measures they took to sustain the appearance of presidential authority as Biden’s capacity to function independently diminished. Executive actions performed by Biden White House staff and signed by autopen are null and void.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/watch-steve-bannon-reveals-plans-are-already-underway/
Dismissing the 22nd Amendment, which limits the presidency to two terms, Bannon emphasized that Trump’s third term is inevitable and essential to “finish the job” of restoring America. “He’s going to get a third term. So Trump ’28. Trump is going to be president in ’28, and people just ought to get accommodated with that,” Bannon stated during the interview with The Economist’s editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes and deputy editor Ed Carr. Bannon did not lay out the plan, but said it will be revealed at the appropriate time. “There’s many different alternatives. At the appropriate time, we’ll lay out what the plan is. But there’s a plan, and President Trump will be the president in ’28,” Bannon said.
I don't understand how this is possible unless the 22nd Amendment is overturned with another amendment.
Right-wing provocateur Candace Owens made her boldest claim yet about her former friend Charlie Kirk's assassination in a video posted online Wednesday. After weeks of spewing conspiracy theories about the assassination, Owens now appears to be explicitly blaming President Donald Trump and members of his administration for Kirk's murder. 'He gave so much of his life to Trump and to politics, and they were just like NOPE. That's it,' Owens said. 'So here's a holiday. What is with them giving them a holiday after they kill them? As soon as they give you a holiday, they definitely killed you. There's no question - they killed you.' Kirk was shot dead on September 10 while speaking at a Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University. Tyler Robinson, 22, a left-wing college dropout, has been charged with his assassination. The White House did not respond to Owens' claims. The Senate unanimously passed a resolution a week after his death, led by Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida, to honor Kirk on his birthday by designating October 14 as a National Day of Remembrance for Charlie Kirk.
This sounds crazy but it could be true. I will follow up with more info - I am sure Candace has made a video about this.
Today, October 22, 2025 the US National Debt officially hit $38,019,813,354,700.26. This was only 2 months after it hit $37 trillion on August 13.
It first hit $19 trillion on 1/28/16, so it has doubled in just under 10 years.
We have resigned ourselves to a $2 trillion per year increase, so this should hit $39 trillion about April 22, 2026, about when tax season is done, and then $40 trillion in a year from now.
Dimon admitted that gold “could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio.” Gold, which traded below $2,000 just two years ago, has outpaced gains in equities so far this year, this decade, and this century, reflecting investor demand for safe-haven assets amid inflation concerns and geopolitical unrest, after ignoring precisely the same arguments presented by "tinfoil hat" conspiracy blows such as this one. It continued its torrid advance on Tuesday, climbing to a record $4,184 an ounce, extending its gain this year to almost 60%.
The government realized a surplus of $164 billion in September 2025, CBO estimates; a surplus of $80 billion was recorded in September 2024. Revenues were $8 billion more this September than they were last September; outlays decreased by $76 billion. That decline in outlays in September this year is attributable largely to modifications to the federal student loan program that were authorized in the 2025 reconciliation act.
The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion [$1.809 trillion] in fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $8 billion less than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2024. Revenues increased by an estimated $308 billion (or 6 percent); increases in collections of individual income taxes and customs duties were partially offset by a decline in corporate tax receipts. Outlays rose by an estimated $301 billion (or 4 percent).
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-10/60306-MBR.pdf
Net Interest on the public debt was $1,029 billion for the year and $87 billion for September ($1,029 - $950). Note that net interest was greater than the primary deficit, which was $780 billion.
Spending for Social Security benefits was $1,569 billion for the year, up $121 billion over FY 2024, and an increase of 8%.
The Federal Reserve had an accumulated deficit of $242.3 billion as of 9/24/2025 (the last Wednesday of the month), up $1.7 billion from 8/27/25.
The total National Debt as of 9/30/25 was $37.6 trillion compared to $35.5 trillion as of 9/30/24, an increase of $2.1 trillion or 5.9%. The debt to the public was $30.3 trillion as of 9/30/25 compared to $28.3 trillion as of 9/30/24, an increase of $2.0 trillion or 7.0%.
The debt to the public as a percent of GDP was 100.0%, using GDP as $30.3 trillion as of 7/30/25. (The actual GDP is slightly higher but we won't know the actual number for about another month). The same ratio as of 9/30/24 was 99.0% ($28.3 / $28.6).
=============================
How do these numbers compare to the forecast? (Numbers in trillions and rounded to 1 place)
Forecast tax revenue: $5.2 v $5.2 actual.
Forecast Social Security spending: $1.6 v $1.6 actual
Forecast other spending (x SS and int): $4.5 v. $4.4 actual
Forecast interest: $1.0 v $1.0 actual
Forecast deficit: $1.9 v $1.8 actual
Forecast debt to the public: $30.2 v $30.3 actual
So these were almost exactly correct.
==========================
Actually, these numbers don't appear too bad in the grand scheme of things (if you ignore the price of gold), with the national debt increasing only 5.9% (which has a doubling period of about 12 years). Maybe there is nothing to worry about. The primary deficit is expected to remain below $1 trillion annually until FY 2033. Interest is always a concern, but it will remain below $1.5 trillion per year until FY 2032. Social Security should remain solvent through 2034. Maybe I will put this blog on pause until something big happens, like another great recession. Or a monthly deficit exceeding $300 billion.
There is a lot of stuff going on in the country, but I am trying to stay away from politics and just focus on long-term economic crisis. It looks like there is nothing to worry about until 2032 or 2033. So, goodbye for now until something drastically changes for the worse.
Wikipedia, launched in 2001, has grown into the seventh most-visited website globally, boasting over 64 million pages (7 million articles) across 329 languages and attracting more than 4 billion visits each month. Officially, Wikipedia operates under the policies of "verifiability" and "neutrality," but in practice, the world's largest online encyclopedia has been hijacked by left-wing activists who manipulate narratives and silence dissenting viewpoints. The danger is no longer confined to everyday readers seeking truth, as today's leading AI models are being trained on biased garbage. Given this backdrop and Musk's stated pursuit of truth to advance civilization, he revealed Tuesday morning that his team at xAI will soon roll out a rival online encyclopedia, integrated with the Grok chatbot, called "Grokipedia."
To counteract this, I encourage everyone to read the news from sources which are banned from Wikipedia. (This is not a complete list, as I am not including sources I am not familiar with).
Daily Signal
Daily Wire
The Federalist
Infowars
Jihad Watch
LifeSiteNews
Natural News
Newsmax
OneAmerica News Network
Project Veritas
RT (formerly Russia Today)
The Sun (UK)
The Unz Review
VDare
WorldNetDaily
 |
| Radar Dimax All Weather |
The Radar Dimax All Weather is a much lower cost alternative for All Weather tires. Here is their ad:
The Dimax All Weather is Radar's Grand Touring All-Season tire developed for the drivers of sedans, coupes, station wagons, crossovers and SUVs looking for daily driving comfort combined with confident performance in dry, wet and light snow conditions. The Dimax All Weather is designed as an all-weather tire to meet industry severe snow service requirements qualifying for the three-peak mountain snowflake (3PMSF) symbol alongside its all-season performance and is intended to function as a one-tire solution for drivers that experience all four seasons but don't receive sufficient snowfall to require a dedicated winter tire.
The Dimax All Weather utilizes a silica-enriched all-season tread compound molded into a V-Formation directional tread design engineered to deliver long-life and dry, wet and wintertime performance. Longitudinal dry grip is buoyed by alternating the center tread blocks for uninterrupted contact when accelerating or decelerating. The blocks are connected shoulder-to-shoulder with embedded support in the tread for ideal stiffness and cohesion to support precision steering. Aqueduct Grooves channel water away from the contact patch, to fight hydroplaning with the aid of circumferential grooves designed into the pattern. The sawtooth design of the central grooves, alongside the stepped design of the shoulder blocks, create traps for ideal snow-to-snow traction in winter weather while enabling stiffer tread blocks for excellent dry and wet performance.
These can be purchased from TireRack.com (or tires-easy.com) for about $80 per tire. They may work as good as the Laufenn G Fit 4S tires I previously mentioned, but the Laufenn tires have a 60k mile warranty whereas these have a 50K mile warranty.
Here is a Tesla owner reviewing his good experience with the Arroyo Grand Sport A/S:
The product sheet is here: https://arroyotires.com/product/grand-sport-a-s/
Arroyo Grand Sport A/S. All Season performance, Asymetrical design for more contact and, cornering capability, Urgent steering response and grip, Design to work for all seasons. The 4 wide longitudinal grooves provide good drainage performance, keep excellent handling performance in wet road. The Anti eccentric wear belts on outer shoulder can increase the tread contact area at braking to obtain uniform contract pressure, which can avoid the eccentric wear.
These are also All-Season but not All-Weather. They have a 40K warranty. These get very good reviews. They will not last as long as some other tires, but the price is around $65/tire, which is about half the price of the Salun Erange EV tires.
This is the promo video for it.
The product sheet is here: https://gosailun.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Erange-EVu.pdf
ERANGE EV tires are designed and dedicated to help get the best performance out of your electric vehicle to help increase overall range on a single charge. ERANGE tires use proprietary Sailun Ecopoint3 liquid phase mixing technology to not only improve the EV driving experience, but also last longer, perform better, filter out road noise and reduce rolling resistance to avoid ‘range anxiety’– with ERANGE, you’re in charge. With over 37 sizes in 15-22”, the ERANGE provides a wide range of market coverage in the electric vehicle segment.
Note that these are All-Season, but not All-Weather. They do not have the 3PMSF rating. These have a 50K mile warranty.
These are available at tires-easy.com
The product data sheet is here: https://www.laufenn.com/en/front/pdf/laufenn_catalog_us_g_fit_4s.pdf
Here is a custom commercial for it courtesy of ChatGPT:
The Laufenn G Fit 4S is the smart choice for drivers who want confidence in every season without breaking the bank. Featuring the coveted 3-Peak Mountain Snowflake (3PMSF) rating, this all-weather tire is built to deliver reliable traction even in challenging winter conditions, so you can drive with peace of mind when the snow starts falling. Backed by an impressive 60,000-mile treadwear warranty, the G Fit 4S combines long-lasting durability with exceptional value, making it an ideal match for your 2025 Nissan Leaf S. And with its very reasonable price point, you’ll enjoy excellent performance, year-round safety, and outstanding savings all in one tire.
These are available at Discount Tire.
These seem very similar to the Michelin CrossClimate2 tires, in appearance at least, but are much cheaper.
Tier 1 Tires are the top of line and have a stellar reputation. They are also way more expensive and probably not worth the extra cost. So avoid them unless you are rich or are convinced that you need the extra quality.
Continental
Michelin
Pirelli (This may be Tier 2, but I think it is Tier 1)
----------------------
Tier 2 Tires are brands that think they are Tier 1, and charge like it but they are a step behind. So avoid them. If you really want the quality, go with Tier 1. If you are trying to save money, go with Tier 3. So these are all overpriced for the quality (my subjective opinion). Some of these really belong in Tier 1, and some belong in Tier 3. But some are really excellent and just slightly more expensive than the Tier 3 tires.
BF Goodrich
Bridgestone (Some people think this is Tier 1 but I personally disagree).
Carlisle/Carlstar
Continental sub-brands (Barum, Mabor, Matador, Semperit, Viking, Sportiva)
Cooper
Dunlop
Firestone (owned by Bridgestone)
General (Continental sub-brand)
Goodyear (This may be Tier 1)
Hankook
Kumho
Nitto
Nokian
Sailun (Hankook sub-brand)
Sumitomo (may be Tier 3)
Toyo
Uniroyal (Continental sub-brand)
Vogue (way overpriced, may be Tier 3)
Vredestein
Yokohama
------------------------
Tier 3 Tires are the sweet spot in my subjective opinion. They are less expensive but are almost the same quality as the higher tiers. In order to make this tier, they must have a warranty of at least 40,000 miles on their tires. I would say to take a chance on these. For the price you almost can't go wrong.
Armstrong
Arroyo
GT Radial
Falken
Goodyear Reliant (only at Walmart)
Hercules
Hoosier
Kelly
Kenda
Laufenn
Milestar
Nexen
Radar
Trelleborg
------------
I have probably misclassified some, and some of these are my subjective rankings.
Tier 4 tires are mostly unknown. Probably most of them should be put in Tier 5, but these need more research. The best you can say about them is that they don't have the reputation of being among the worst - because no one has ever heard of them. Some of these are underrated and deserve being rated higher. So I would avoid them unless you have heard something good about them.
Advance, Advanta, Airloc, Alliance, American Farmer, American Road Star, Americus, AMP, Apollo, Ardent, Arisun, Ascenso, ATF Tires, Atlas
BKT, Blackhawk
Cambridge, Castle Rock, Celimo, Centennial, Cosmo, Crop Max, Crossmax, Crosswind
Deestone, Delinte, Delta, Doral, Double Coin, Duramas, Duro, Durun, Dynatrac
Eurogrip, Evoluxx
Federal, Forceland, Forceum, Freedom Hauler, Freestar, Fullrun, Fullway, Fury, Fuzion
Galaxy, GBC, Giovanna, Gladiator, Goodtrip, Grand Spirit, Green Max, Greenball,Gremax, Grit Master, Groundspeed
Haida, Harvest King, Heritage, Hi-Run, HiFly
Iris, Ironhead, Ironman, ITP
JK Tyre
K9, Kanati, Kontio
Lancaster, Landgolden, Landsail, Landspider, Leao, Lexani, Lionhart
Master, Mastercraft, Matrax, Maxxis, Mesa, Mickey Thompson, Momo, Montreal, Mud Claw, Multi-Mile
NAMA, Nanco, National, NeoTerra, Nika
Ohtsu, Otani, OTR
Pantera, Paragon, Patriot, Performer, Petlas, Power King, Predator, PrimeX, Prometer
RBP, Road One, Roadmaster, RoadX, Rovelo, RubberMaster
Samson, Sceptor, Solar, Sotera, Starfire, Starmaxx, Sumitomo, Summit, Supercargo, Supermax, Suretrac
TBB, Tesche, Titan, Tornel, Tourador, Towstar,Trac Gard, Trail Guide, Trailer King, Trailer Master, TransEagle, Transmax, Transporter
Vantage, Vee Rubber, Velozza, Venezia, Venom Power, Vercelli, Versatyre, Vitour, Vizzoni
WDT, Wild Spirit, Wild Trail
Zeemax, Zeetex, Zenna, Zeta
These have the reputation of being the worst. These are the Tier 5, the bottom of the barrel. Don't ever buy these. Most of these are from China.
Accelera
Achilles Radial
AKS Tires
Atturo
Autogreen
Blackhawk
Chaoyang
Compass
Dextero
Douglas (subbrand of Goodyear)
El Dorado
Evergreen
Fortune
Geostar (subbrand of Nexen)
Goodride
Prinx
Solar
Sunny
Supermax
Thunderer
Travelstar
Triangle
Unicorn (Sunfull, Travelstar, Mastertrack)
Waterfall
West Lake (U.S. company)
The federal budget deficit totaled $2.0 trillion [actually $1.989 trillion] in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $92 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year.
The deficit in August 2025 was $360 billion, CBO estimates—$20 billion (or 5 percent) less than the amount recorded in August 2024.
Net interest for August was $95 billion (942 - 847).
Spending for Social Security benefits rose by $111 billion (or 8 percent) (compared to the same 11 month period last fiscal year).
The Federal Reserve had a deficit of $2.5 billion for the month (as of 8/27/25) for a cumulative deficit of $240.6 billion.
The debt to the public was $29.969 trillion as of 8/29/25, compared to $28.168 trillion as of 8/30/24, so it increased 6.4% over the last 12 months.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/french-investors-should-brace-further-tempests
Bayrou is reportedly going to submit his resignation to Macron early Tuesday, according to a government course. Macron has limited options to steer France out of this crisis, according to PoliticoEU. He is reportedly leaning toward appointing another prime minister — the fifth since January 2024 — but a new premier would face the same intractable parliament. So too would a technical government made up of civil servants. Another snap election looks unappetizing, though, as it could easily deliver another hung parliament. In an extreme scenario, Macron could even resign, but that’s highly unlikely given his past statements.
I don't really understand any of this. It doesn't stop me from having an opinion though! Macron should resign and call for elections, Marine Le Pen should become president, and France should leave the EU (Frexit) and Eurozone, default on all their debt and reintroduce the French franc. Then they could experiment with the Magical Money Tree, which they can't do while they are in the EU.
This is so interesting, because France is previewing that will happen in the United States, but they are 20 years further into collapse than we are.
=============================
You’re absolutely right that President Emmanuel Macron faces an unenviable predicament—and the recent political developments confirm just how precarious the situation has become.
Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote, with 364 deputies voting against his budget and only 194 in support, forcing his resignation ReutersFinancial Times.
This marks yet another unstable chapter—Bayrou is Macron’s third prime minister to fall in just over a year and his fifth PM since 2022 The GuardianWikipedia.
France grapples with soaring public debt (around 114 % of GDP) and a lingering deficit far above EU thresholds ReutersFinancial Times.
The political landscape remains deeply fragmented, with no clear majority and rising unrest, including planned strikes and protests Financial TimesThe Guardian.
Financial markets are on edge: bond yields are spiking, investor confidence is shaky, and credit ratings hang in the balance Financial TimesReuters.
Within this context, Macron’s choices are limited—and none are ideal:
Appoint a new Prime Minister (e.g., a centrist or a center-left figure such as Finance Minister Lombard or someone who can court Socialist support).
‣ May help push through fiscal measures—but success is far from guaranteed in this divided National Assembly zerohedge.comThe Guardian.
Form a technical government of technocrats or civil servants.
‣ This could temporarily stabilize decision-making—but lacks political legitimacy and risks igniting public backlash zerohedge.com.
Dissolve Parliament and call early legislative elections.
‣ Could reset the political equation—but polls show Macron’s Ensemble bloc is weak (~15 %), while the National Rally sits above ~32–33 % zerohedge.comReuters. The risk: a hung Parliament or even an RN-led government—potentially disastrous.
Resign himself.
‣ Virtually off the table (Macron has stated he will not resign before his term ends in April 2027), though this option remains theoretically possible zerohedge.com.
Given the gravity and complexity of the situation, my recommendation would be:
Appoint a new Prime Minister who is credible to both centrist and left-wing parties and bring the Socialist Party (PS) into a fragile but necessary coalition.
This option offers the best route to maintain state functionality, restore some investor confidence, and allow France to move forward—albeit imperfectly.
It avoids the chaos and unpredictability of snap elections, which could empower the National Rally or produce another hung Parliament—fueling even more instability.
A technocratic government, while potentially efficient, would lack democratic legitimacy and could provoke further unrest from unions and voters.
Even though the Socialist Party is not enthusiastic about austerity—or Macron’s economic agenda—forming a coalition could facilitate incremental compromise, enabling a smaller, more palatable version of fiscal reform to pass.
Having a PM with cross-spectrum credibility might calm markets by offering a tangible path forward—even if minor—rather than kicking the can further down the road.
Identify a PM candidate respected across the political divide (someone like Lombard or another moderate with statutory, technocratic—and perhaps Socialist—credibility).
Negotiate a pragmatic budget path that trims spending enough to placate EU and investor concerns, but with adjustments to reduce social impact—e.g., preserving public holidays or cushioning the most vulnerable.
Stagger reforms, starting with less controversial measures while building trust with partner parties and unions before tackling tougher austerity.
Contain social unrest by announcing dialogue with unions and civic groups, even as fiscal discipline is emphasized.
This approach is far from a panacea—but amidst the current deep institutional gridlock, it offers a path that preserves democratic legitimacy, avoids empowering extremists, and keeps France operational while slowly addressing fiscal challenges.
As an advisor, I’d counsel Macron to appoint a broadly acceptable, moderate prime minister who can command a fragile coalition, preferably involving the Socialist Party. It’s the least destabilizing option, offering a chance to balance fiscal responsibility with political viability—while postponing, though not eliminating, the risk of future upheaval.
On 9/2/25, the debt to the public stood at $30,105,889,987,086.45. This was only 2 months after it first hit $29 trillion. But things are not as bad as they seem since some of this was the Treasury refilling its general account.
I have a theory that the balances follow a 2 year pattern (see also) where they increase by $4 trillion, so lets look at the history. The debt to the public first hit $26 trillion on 8/31/2023, which is almost exactly 2 years ago. Then it hit $22 trillion on 4/30/21, (which is a bit more than 2 years), and $17 trillion on 11/7/2019 (which is less than 2 years before that).
So the parallel dates, as I called them before, are 11/7/19, 4/30/21, 8/31/23, and 9/2/25.
So the theory is that even though the debt is rapidly increasing, it is increasing only in a linear fashion and not exponentially.
=====================
When was the debt to the public at $15 trillion? On 2/15/2018, which was only about 7.5 years ago. At the time, I noticed that the debt to the public first hit $7.5 trillion on 9/15/2009, which was about 8.5 years prior. Also at that time, I made a prediction:
If it takes 8.5 years to double, we should be at $30 trillion held by the public on 8/15/2026.
So we beat that by almost an entire year. If the debt to the public is doubling every 8 years, then it should hit $60 trillion about 9/1/2033. (This contradicts the 2 year pattern theory).
====================
The debt to the public should hit $31 trillion about 3/1/26, 6 months from now.
 |
| Lisa Cook |
I just want to very briefly comment on this. Lisa Cook is member of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve. She was nominated by Biden and her nomination was confirmed on September 6, 2023. Her term on the board expires January 2038.
Yesterday, President Trump said he fired her because of mortgage fraud. Lisa Cook says that she is not going anywhere. What is her position? One of these:
1. She can't be fired by the President for any reason. (Maybe the Board could fire her for malfeasance). It seems like this is her position. She said: "President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so."
2. She can be fired by the President, but her actions do not constitute cause. Even if she misstated something on her mortgage applications, that is a petty event that doesn't rise to an event that justifies firing her.
She will probably sue, and this will be up to the Supreme Court to decide.
I wonder what the law about the Federal Reserve says about this. To be continued.
============================
ChatGpt, yesterday President Trump said that he fired Lisa Cook from being a governor of the Federal Reserve. She claimed that he did not have authority to fire her. What is your opinion of this?
You’re absolutely right to question what happened yesterday, August 25, 2025. President Trump announced that he was firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud and claiming “sufficient cause” under his authority ABC NewsReuters.
However—this is the crux—legal experts and Cook herself strongly dispute that he has the authority to do so. Lisa Cook, who was appointed by President Biden for a 14-year term and confirmed in 2022, responded that “no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority” to remove her ABC NewsThe Washington PostReuters. Legal scholars emphasize that Federal Reserve governors can only be removed “for cause”—and such removals have practically never been attempted. The move is widely seen as a highly unusual and legally questionable assault on the Fed’s independence The EconomistReuters+1.
Many analysts warn this could spark a prolonged legal fight, and even Tampering with the Fed’s independence may unsettle financial markets and institutional norms Reuters+1. Market reaction so far has been muted, but there are growing concerns about undermining central bank autonomy—a cornerstone of stable monetary policy Reuters+1.
Legally Shaky Ground: Based on current law—including the Federal Reserve Act and relevant court interpretations—there’s no clear legal basis for a president to unilaterally dismiss a sitting Fed governor. Cook appears to have strong justification to contest this in court.
Erosion of Institutional Independence: The Federal Reserve’s independence is a critical element of economic stability. Politically motivated firings set dangerous precedents that could undermine trust in the central bank’s ability to make decisions based on data, not political pressure.
Risks to Market Confidence: Even if markets are reacting mildly for now, such a high-profile and politically charged move risks shaking investor confidence. Any perceived politicization could amplify volatility and long-term economic uncertainty.
Precedent with Broad Implications: If this move succeeds, even temporarily, it could redefine the limits of executive power over independent agencies—not just for the Fed but across the executive branch.
In short: while the president claimed to fire Lisa Cook, the legal and institutional framework does not support such a removal, and the broader implications for central bank independence and democratic governance are deeply troubling.
Would you like a breakdown of potential legal arguments in play, or how this compares to past episodes of executive overreach into independent institutions?
Great clarification — here’s how the situation breaks down legally and practically:
The Federal Reserve Act says governors “may be removed for cause by the President.”
That phrase “for cause” is critical: it means presidents do not have blanket “at-will” firing authority like they do over cabinet officials.
Historically, no president has ever removed a Fed governor, so the exact boundaries of “for cause” have never been tested in court.
Legal scholars generally interpret it narrowly:
Valid examples might be corruption, incapacity, serious misconduct, or clear neglect of duty.
Invalid examples would be policy disagreements, political disputes, or decisions the president dislikes.
So, the key legal fight is whether the allegations Trump raised (mortgage fraud) actually qualify.
No, not typically. Courts have consistently said “cause” requires substantial evidence—not just accusations.
Presidents cannot simply declare “cause”; there would need to be a demonstrable factual basis.
That does not necessarily require a criminal conviction, but usually it means misconduct has been established through investigation, due process, or an adjudicative process.
Cook is essentially arguing: Trump cannot fire her at all unless there is proven, substantial cause.
Since the allegations are unproven, and since she disputes them, she’s saying he has no authority right now.
If Trump insists, the issue is almost certain to end up in federal court, where a judge would decide if the president exceeded his power.
✅ So, to answer directly:
Trump does not have authority to fire her “for any reason.”
Alleged mortgage fraud, even if true, might qualify as “for cause,” but that would depend on the facts.
A criminal conviction is not required, but some credible, legally established proof of misconduct would likely be needed before a court would uphold such a firing.
