Updated Medicaid Entitlement Costs

This is an update of a previous post.

My assumptions are:
1. Medicaid costs through 2019 will be as stated in http://www.cms.gov/ActuarialStudies/Downloads/PPACA_2010-04-22.pdf.
2. Healthcare costs will increase by 8.3% thereafter.
3. A 4.5% discount rate is used, based on the 30 year bond rate of 4.375%.
4. A 50-year horizon is used.
5. The US government will be responsible for all Medicaid costs, even though these are actually split between the federal and state governments.

Based on these, the total cost under the old law for the 50-year period of 2010-2059 would be 59.5 trillion. The total cost under the new law for the 50-year period of 2011-2060 would be 67.4 trillion.

These numbers can be manipulated based on the inputs. However, they shouldn't be ignored simply because they are taken from the general revenue stream instead of having a dedicated funding source. Instead, this makes it even more of a cause for concern.