Another projection

Here is another projection, based partially on data from http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_FY2011Outlook.pdf.

I used its data on revenue through 2012, but then assumed that revenue will only increase 3%/year. I mostly used its data on outlays except for 2012-2014, which I considered low because in one year it projects outlays to decrease from the prior year, which is extremely unlikely.

Projected deficit
Year Reve Outl Defi Total
==== ==== ===== ==== ====
2010 2162 3456 1294 13562
2011 2228 3708 1480 15042
2012 2555 3819 1264 16306
2013 2632 3934 1302 17609
2014 2711 4052 1341 18950
2015 2792 4202 1410 20360
2016 2876 4491 1615 21975
2017 2962 4691 1729 23704
2018 3051 4885 1834 25539
2019 3142 5185 2043 27581
2020 3237 5451 2214 29796
2021 3334 5726 2392 32188
2022 3434 6012 2579 34767

As you can see, this is slightly more positive than my last projection as it shows the system limping along until 2022, back where I started from, thus the name of this blog. A notable difference is that here I am doubting the CBOs revenue projections and mostly accepting its outlay projections, whereas earlier I was accepting its revenue projections but doubting its outlay projections.

Update: 6/19/12.  This is model C-2, and is too pessimistic.