Saturday, January 21, 2012

Could the Australian dollar be a reserve currency?

The Australian dollar is the 5th or 6th most traded currency behind the US dollar, euro, yen, pound and maybe the Swiss franc.  Australia has much less debt per person ($12,470) than the countries behind the other currencies.

"The rational reaction of sovereign holders of US dollars who see the writing on the wall (that is, that the value of their US assets is likely to fall) and, furthermore, recognise that we are currently experiencing a major shift in the global centre of economic gravity away from the North Atlantic economies to Asia. ...

And since it is hard to trade the Chinese currency, one of the next best things is a proximate, lowly leveraged, and politically stable economy that has a liquid exchange rate and is highly integrated with the Middle Kingdom's fortunes. Yes, you guessed, it – the Sunburnt Country".
--http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/christopher-joye/is-the-aussie-dollar-becoming-a-global-reserve-currency/

"The Australian dollar is attractive to central banks because it has solid public finances, unlike the US, UK, and certain euro zone members.  Moreover, Australia is a big exporter of raw materials to several emerging market economies.  For these countries, buying the Australia dollar is grabbing a claim on Australia’s bountiful natural resources."
--http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/137346/20110422/australian-dollar-reserve-currency.htm

"in Aussie dollars, gold is worth the same today as it was two years ago"
--http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/04/central-bank-update-fed-is-behind-curve.html

"The ascent of the Australian dollar has largely been at the expense of the US dollar. America has been flooding global financial markets with US dollars, thereby reducing its value. It is part of a last ditch attempt to stimulate markets by providing easy money.

The chief currency strategist at Westpac Robert Rennie blames the US Federal Reserve for pumping so many extra US dollars into the global financial system. "The ultimate source of this liquidity really is the Fed. As the Fed increases the size of its balance sheet and pumps money into the US economy and the global financial system, one of the areas that it ends up in is in the demand for the Australian dollar," he explained.

Robert Rennie says that has put the Australian dollar front and centre on the international stage."

--http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-06-20/russian-central-bank-buys-up-aussie-dollars/2764936

"Australia owes its popularity among currency traders to 3 G's – geology, geography and government policy. Geology has given the company a wealth of natural resources that are in high demand, including oil, gold, agricultural products, diamonds, iron ore, uranium, nickel and coal. Geography has positioned the company as a choice trading partner for many fast-growing Asian economies with nearly insatiable resource demands. Government policy has led to fairly stable high interest rates, a stable government and economy, a lack of intervention in the currency markets, and a Western approach to business and the rule of law that has not always been typical in the region."

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/aud-fx-traders-should-know.asp

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Update:  The AUD/USD is the 4th most traded currency pair.

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