"President Obama could do this by announcing a NGDP level target that
would be implemented by the Treasury Department creating
large-denomination platinum coins that would be deposited at the Fed and
used to fund checks to the public. The Treasury Department would keep
making these coins until the the NGDP level target was hit. If NGDP
went above the target the Treasury Department would issue bonds to
withdraw the excess money."
--http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2012/04/obama-needs-his-fdr-moment.html
This is still a really stupid idea, but an interesting idea would be to issue lower value coins, say $1 million platinum coins. And instead of just depositing them with the Fed, how about having a lottery and give 1 million of these away at random? They could be redeemed at the Fed, and have taxes taken out at that point. Some of the coins wouldn't be redeemed at all, as some collectors would want them.
That is a better idea than the trillion dollar coin.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Broccoli Insurance
Could Congress pass a law requiring everyone to purchase Broccoli Insurance? Such insurance would cover 80% of the cost of broccoli, leaving the consumer with only a 20% co-pay, and thus bring down the cost. The reasoning would be that eating broccoli makes you healthy, which would have an impart on health care, which Congress has power to regulate.
But you might say, I hate broccoli and Congress can't make me eat it. But au contraire, you are engaged in the broccoli market by not eating broccoli. You are self-insured for broccoli by voluntarily choosing not to purchase broccoli insurance. Thus you are an active participant and the Commerce Clause gives Congress the power to regulate it.
The Chief Justice presents the argument, which he ultimately rejects, as follows:
"Many Americans do not eat a balanced diet. That group makes up a larger percentage of the total population than those without health insurance. The failure of that group to have a healthy diet increases health care costs, to a greater extent than the failure of the uninsured to purchase insurance. See reports detailing the “undeniable link between rising rates of obesity and rising medical spending,” and estimating that “the annual medical burden of obesity has risen to almost 10 percent of all medical spending and could amount to $147 billion per year in 2008”). Those increased costs are borne in part by other Americans who must pay more, just as the uninsured shift costs to the insured. See a report noting “overwhelming evidence that individuals with unhealthy habits pay only a fraction of the costs associated
with their behaviors; most of the expense is borne by the rest of society in the form of higher insurance premiums,government expenditures for health care, and disability benefits”). Congress addressed the insurance problem by ordering everyone to buy insurance. Under the Government’s theory, Congress could address the diet problem by ordering everyone to buy vegetables. 'Improved nutrition, appropriate eating behaviors, and increased physical activity have tremendous potential to . . . reduce health care costs'".
The dissent thinks the Chief Justice is being ridiculous, and says that just because you are required to purchase health insurance doesn't mean that the government could require people to purchase broccoli:
"THE CHIEF JUSTICE cites a Government mandate to purchase green vegetables. One could call this concern “the broccoli horrible.” Congress, THE CHIEF JUSTICE posits, might adopt such a mandate, reasoning that an individual’s failure to eat a healthy diet, like the failure to purchase health insurance, imposes costs on others. Consider the chain of inferences the Court would have to accept to conclude that a vegetable-purchase mandate was likely to have a substantial effect on the health-care costs borne by lithe Americans. The Court would have to believe that individuals forced to buy vegetables would then eat them (instead of throwing or giving them away),would prepare the vegetables in a healthy way (steamed or raw, not deep-fried), would cut back on unhealthy foods, and would not allow other factors (such as lack of exercise or little sleep) to trump the improved diet. Such “pil[ingof] inference upon inference” is just what the Court refused to do in Lopez and Morrison."
The "broccoli inference", thus differentiates health care from broccoli:
"The failure to purchase vegetables in THE CHIEF JUSTICE’s hypothetical, then, is not what leads to higher health-care costs for others; rather, it is the failure of individuals to maintain a healthy diet, and the resulting obesity, that creates the cost-shifting problem. Requiring individuals to purchase vegetables is thus several steps removed from solving the problem. The failure to obtain health insurance, by contrast, is the immediate cause of the cost-shifting Congress sought to address through the ACA. Requiring individuals to obtain insurance attacks the source of the problem directly, in a single step."
But then the dissent claims that while the government could not require people to purchase broccoli, could Constitutionally require that you only eat broccoli. But don't worry, even though it had the power, it wouldn't do that.
"The commerce power, hypothetically, would enable Congress to prohibit the purchase and home production of all meat, fish, and dairy goods, effectively compelling Americans to eat only vegetables. Yet no one would offer the “hypothetical and unreal possibilit[y],” of a vegetarian state as a credible reason to deny Congress the authority ever to ban the possession and sale of goods. THE CHIEF JUSTICE accepts just such specious logic when he cites the broccoli horrible as a reason to deny Congress the power to pass the individual mandate.
But you might say, I hate broccoli and Congress can't make me eat it. But au contraire, you are engaged in the broccoli market by not eating broccoli. You are self-insured for broccoli by voluntarily choosing not to purchase broccoli insurance. Thus you are an active participant and the Commerce Clause gives Congress the power to regulate it.
The Chief Justice presents the argument, which he ultimately rejects, as follows:
"Many Americans do not eat a balanced diet. That group makes up a larger percentage of the total population than those without health insurance. The failure of that group to have a healthy diet increases health care costs, to a greater extent than the failure of the uninsured to purchase insurance. See reports detailing the “undeniable link between rising rates of obesity and rising medical spending,” and estimating that “the annual medical burden of obesity has risen to almost 10 percent of all medical spending and could amount to $147 billion per year in 2008”). Those increased costs are borne in part by other Americans who must pay more, just as the uninsured shift costs to the insured. See a report noting “overwhelming evidence that individuals with unhealthy habits pay only a fraction of the costs associated
with their behaviors; most of the expense is borne by the rest of society in the form of higher insurance premiums,government expenditures for health care, and disability benefits”). Congress addressed the insurance problem by ordering everyone to buy insurance. Under the Government’s theory, Congress could address the diet problem by ordering everyone to buy vegetables. 'Improved nutrition, appropriate eating behaviors, and increased physical activity have tremendous potential to . . . reduce health care costs'".
The dissent thinks the Chief Justice is being ridiculous, and says that just because you are required to purchase health insurance doesn't mean that the government could require people to purchase broccoli:
"THE CHIEF JUSTICE cites a Government mandate to purchase green vegetables. One could call this concern “the broccoli horrible.” Congress, THE CHIEF JUSTICE posits, might adopt such a mandate, reasoning that an individual’s failure to eat a healthy diet, like the failure to purchase health insurance, imposes costs on others. Consider the chain of inferences the Court would have to accept to conclude that a vegetable-purchase mandate was likely to have a substantial effect on the health-care costs borne by lithe Americans. The Court would have to believe that individuals forced to buy vegetables would then eat them (instead of throwing or giving them away),would prepare the vegetables in a healthy way (steamed or raw, not deep-fried), would cut back on unhealthy foods, and would not allow other factors (such as lack of exercise or little sleep) to trump the improved diet. Such “pil[ingof] inference upon inference” is just what the Court refused to do in Lopez and Morrison."
The "broccoli inference", thus differentiates health care from broccoli:
"The failure to purchase vegetables in THE CHIEF JUSTICE’s hypothetical, then, is not what leads to higher health-care costs for others; rather, it is the failure of individuals to maintain a healthy diet, and the resulting obesity, that creates the cost-shifting problem. Requiring individuals to purchase vegetables is thus several steps removed from solving the problem. The failure to obtain health insurance, by contrast, is the immediate cause of the cost-shifting Congress sought to address through the ACA. Requiring individuals to obtain insurance attacks the source of the problem directly, in a single step."
But then the dissent claims that while the government could not require people to purchase broccoli, could Constitutionally require that you only eat broccoli. But don't worry, even though it had the power, it wouldn't do that.
"The commerce power, hypothetically, would enable Congress to prohibit the purchase and home production of all meat, fish, and dairy goods, effectively compelling Americans to eat only vegetables. Yet no one would offer the “hypothetical and unreal possibilit[y],” of a vegetarian state as a credible reason to deny Congress the authority ever to ban the possession and sale of goods. THE CHIEF JUSTICE accepts just such specious logic when he cites the broccoli horrible as a reason to deny Congress the power to pass the individual mandate.
The real problem with Hong Kong/China integration
They drive on opposite sides of the road. Cars from the mainland can't go to Hong Kong and cars from Hong Kong have to have special licenses to go to the mainland.
"While Hong Kong’s vehicles with steering wheels on the right side can travel (with the addition of expensive to obtain dual license plates) to the mainland, the reverse is not true. That is now impacting massively expensive projects such as the US$3 billion Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge, currently under construction, which is expected to transport 14,000 vehicles daily upon opening in 2016 to a capacity of 49,000 by 2035. It is being built to China’s right side standards, but the ends won’t match up either in Hong Kong or Macau, which is also left hand drive.
As things currently stand, those predictions over traffic volume are now being downgraded by 90 percent, leaving the bridge as a potential white elephant. Just 22,000 licenses have been granted in total to Hong Kong registered vehicles with right side steering wheels to travel to China."
--http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2010/07/28/hong-kong-faces-left-hand-drive-dilemma-6538.html
"While Hong Kong’s vehicles with steering wheels on the right side can travel (with the addition of expensive to obtain dual license plates) to the mainland, the reverse is not true. That is now impacting massively expensive projects such as the US$3 billion Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge, currently under construction, which is expected to transport 14,000 vehicles daily upon opening in 2016 to a capacity of 49,000 by 2035. It is being built to China’s right side standards, but the ends won’t match up either in Hong Kong or Macau, which is also left hand drive.
As things currently stand, those predictions over traffic volume are now being downgraded by 90 percent, leaving the bridge as a potential white elephant. Just 22,000 licenses have been granted in total to Hong Kong registered vehicles with right side steering wheels to travel to China."
--http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2010/07/28/hong-kong-faces-left-hand-drive-dilemma-6538.html
Monday, June 25, 2012
Soros: 3 days left to save Euro
Billionaire investor George Soros says Germany has three days left to spearhead the creation of the "embryo" of a European fiscal union in order to save the eurozone.
"There's a disagrement on the fiscal side, and unless that is resolved in the next three days, then I'm afraid the summit could turn out to be a fiasco, and that could be acutally fatal because you are facing the possiblity of Greece leaving the euro and perhaps the European Union, and you need to strengthen the remaining euro structure to withstand that shock," Soros told Bloomberg TV.
--http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/25/george-soros-germany_n_1623810.html
Ok, this should be easy enough to test. Let's see what happens on 6/28. The healthcare decision will also be announced that morning.
Update: 6/28. The eurozone hasn't fallen apart yet. I'll give it one more day before calling him an idiot.
Update: 7/2. This sort of prediction is meaningless unless you define the terms more carefully. The Eurozone hasn't fallen apart yet, so I guess it has been "saved". Yet was the embryo of a European fiscal union created? I don't think so, but who knows. So I say either his prophecy failed, or his prediction was too meaningless to tell. Either way, he failed. George Soros, you have no credibility. The next time you say something we will just ignore it.
"There's a disagrement on the fiscal side, and unless that is resolved in the next three days, then I'm afraid the summit could turn out to be a fiasco, and that could be acutally fatal because you are facing the possiblity of Greece leaving the euro and perhaps the European Union, and you need to strengthen the remaining euro structure to withstand that shock," Soros told Bloomberg TV.
--http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/25/george-soros-germany_n_1623810.html
Ok, this should be easy enough to test. Let's see what happens on 6/28. The healthcare decision will also be announced that morning.
Update: 6/28. The eurozone hasn't fallen apart yet. I'll give it one more day before calling him an idiot.
Update: 7/2. This sort of prediction is meaningless unless you define the terms more carefully. The Eurozone hasn't fallen apart yet, so I guess it has been "saved". Yet was the embryo of a European fiscal union created? I don't think so, but who knows. So I say either his prophecy failed, or his prediction was too meaningless to tell. Either way, he failed. George Soros, you have no credibility. The next time you say something we will just ignore it.
Is the CNH becoming a global currency?
See: http://www.hsbcnet.com/rmb
The CNH is the offshore version of the Chinese Yuan. It is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), thus there are 2 competing currencies in Hong Kong.
A recent idea is to merge it with the Hong Kong Dollar, thus providing instant credibility.
The CNH is the offshore version of the Chinese Yuan. It is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), thus there are 2 competing currencies in Hong Kong.
A recent idea is to merge it with the Hong Kong Dollar, thus providing instant credibility.
“The obvious answer is to combine the dead HK dollar with the embryonic CNH. This would be a completely independent, floating currency not fungible with the CNY. The CNY would be used for current account transactions such as exports and imports, while the new Chinese dollar (HKD/CNH) would cater for capital account financial transactions.”http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/06/24/fund-file-hk-dollar-route-to-rmb-convertibility/
Deflation is more likely than inflation
See: http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/How%20Do%20Empires%20Die/index.htm
Is this true? In deflation, the price of gold keeps dropping. Debts become more expensive to pay back, and when defaults occur, the amount of money in circulation drops.
Eh, there might be something to this, but I don't see it happening now. Check out M2. It keeps going up at the rate of about 10%/year. No deflation here, except in real estate.
Is this true? In deflation, the price of gold keeps dropping. Debts become more expensive to pay back, and when defaults occur, the amount of money in circulation drops.
Eh, there might be something to this, but I don't see it happening now. Check out M2. It keeps going up at the rate of about 10%/year. No deflation here, except in real estate.
Friday, June 22, 2012
The Trillion Dollar Coin, Part II
An alternative strategy thatsounds much more ridiculous but is arguably on firmer legal footing refers to 31 USC § 5112 - Denominations, specifications, and design of coins.
Section (k) of this statute states that the secretary of the Treasury "may mint and issue platinum bullion coins and proof platinum coins in accordance with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations, and inscriptions as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe from time to time." The intention here is to have the mint make a small number of platinum collector coins as a minor giveaway to platinum interests. But the plain text of the law appears to indicate that Secretary Geithner can mint a $2 trillion platinum coin, give it to the Federal Reserve, and then use that deposit as the backing to finance government operations.
--http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/06/20/pelosi_says_14th_amendment_makes_the_debt_ceiling_unconstitutional.html
--http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/06/20/pelosi_says_14th_amendment_makes_the_debt_ceiling_unconstitutional.html
Recession Watch
Recessions are officially defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research; however, they will wait 1 to 2 years after events to see all the data before they make announcements. The Economic Cycle Research Institute produces indexes weekly and monthly; however, they don't call recessions.
By combining the two, we can see when a recession starts in almost real time. The last three recessions were July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-Nov 2001, and Dec 2007-June 2009. Looking at just these two periods, were there any data that signaled the start of the recession?
Yes, first the coincident monthly index growth rate. When this drops below 0, we are in a recession. This was below zero during Oct. 1990 to Jun. 1991, so this matched the recession with a 3 month lag. It was also below zero during April 2001-Mar 2002, so it matched the recession is a 1 to 4 month lag. It was below zero during May 2008 to Dec. 2009, so it had a lag of 6 months. So it is safe to say that if the monthly growth rate is below zero then we are in a recession, with a possible lag of up to 6 months (i.e. the recession could have started up to 6 months earlier).
Looking at the weekly leading index growth rate, it was below 1 in April 1990 and stayed there until Feb 1991. So this match the recession exactly except was early by 3 months. It dropped below zero again in Dec 1991 (2 weeks), Nov 1994-April 1995 (20 weeks), Aug 1998 (23 weeks). In May 2000, it dropped below 1.0 and stayed there until Jan 2002. So again this matched except it was 11 months early on starting and 2 months early on ending. It next dropped below 1 in Aug 2002 (37 weeks), July 2004 (20 weeks), Jan 2005 (5 weeks), May 2005 (6 weeks), June 2006 (21 weeks). In Aug 2007 it dropped below 1 and stayed there until June 2009. So this was 4 months early. Since then the growth rate was below 1 in May 2010 (30 weeks), Aug 2011 (32 weeks) and April 2012 (9 weeks so far).
So I think any period where the weekly growth rate is below 1 for more than 6 weeks is what I call a mini-recession. A mini-recession may or may not turn into a recession. Since January 1990 these are:
April 20, 1990-March 1, 1991
Nov 25, 1994-April 7, 1995
Aug 21, 1998-Mar 12, 1999
May 12, 2000-Dec 28, 2001
Aug 2, 2002-Apr 4, 2003
July 16, 2004-Nov 26, 2004
Jun 23, 2006-Nov 10, 2006
Aug 7, 2007-June 12, 2009
May 28, 2010-Dec 17, 2010
Aug 19, 2011-Mar 23, 2012
April 20, 2012-current
So there were 11 mini-recessions, of which only 3 turned into recessions.
What separates a recession from a mini-recession? If the coincedent growth rate is negative at the same time. So what are we to conclude? That we are in a mini-recession, but we are not in a recession at this point.
One more question is, what is the maximum negative weekly growth there has been without being in a recession? On 7/23/2010, the weekly growth rate was -10.9, but we were not in a recession.
==================
Update 11/9/12: the last mini-recession ended on 8/24/12.
By combining the two, we can see when a recession starts in almost real time. The last three recessions were July 1990-March 1991, March 2001-Nov 2001, and Dec 2007-June 2009. Looking at just these two periods, were there any data that signaled the start of the recession?
Yes, first the coincident monthly index growth rate. When this drops below 0, we are in a recession. This was below zero during Oct. 1990 to Jun. 1991, so this matched the recession with a 3 month lag. It was also below zero during April 2001-Mar 2002, so it matched the recession is a 1 to 4 month lag. It was below zero during May 2008 to Dec. 2009, so it had a lag of 6 months. So it is safe to say that if the monthly growth rate is below zero then we are in a recession, with a possible lag of up to 6 months (i.e. the recession could have started up to 6 months earlier).
Looking at the weekly leading index growth rate, it was below 1 in April 1990 and stayed there until Feb 1991. So this match the recession exactly except was early by 3 months. It dropped below zero again in Dec 1991 (2 weeks), Nov 1994-April 1995 (20 weeks), Aug 1998 (23 weeks). In May 2000, it dropped below 1.0 and stayed there until Jan 2002. So again this matched except it was 11 months early on starting and 2 months early on ending. It next dropped below 1 in Aug 2002 (37 weeks), July 2004 (20 weeks), Jan 2005 (5 weeks), May 2005 (6 weeks), June 2006 (21 weeks). In Aug 2007 it dropped below 1 and stayed there until June 2009. So this was 4 months early. Since then the growth rate was below 1 in May 2010 (30 weeks), Aug 2011 (32 weeks) and April 2012 (9 weeks so far).
So I think any period where the weekly growth rate is below 1 for more than 6 weeks is what I call a mini-recession. A mini-recession may or may not turn into a recession. Since January 1990 these are:
April 20, 1990-March 1, 1991
Nov 25, 1994-April 7, 1995
Aug 21, 1998-Mar 12, 1999
May 12, 2000-Dec 28, 2001
Aug 2, 2002-Apr 4, 2003
July 16, 2004-Nov 26, 2004
Jun 23, 2006-Nov 10, 2006
Aug 7, 2007-June 12, 2009
May 28, 2010-Dec 17, 2010
Aug 19, 2011-Mar 23, 2012
April 20, 2012-current
So there were 11 mini-recessions, of which only 3 turned into recessions.
What separates a recession from a mini-recession? If the coincedent growth rate is negative at the same time. So what are we to conclude? That we are in a mini-recession, but we are not in a recession at this point.
One more question is, what is the maximum negative weekly growth there has been without being in a recession? On 7/23/2010, the weekly growth rate was -10.9, but we were not in a recession.
==================
Update 11/9/12: the last mini-recession ended on 8/24/12.
It's stupid to borrow money
Credit does not bring prosperity. It is a ponzi scheme.
Only economic surplus -- that is, savings -- produces prosperity. It does so through capital formation which has as its predicate savings.
Borrowing is a short-term elixer that has its place, but it requires more surplus to pay back borrowing than to simply save in the first place, as you must pay both the original borrowed funds and the interest. This in turn means that when you borrow you are not only time-shifting your requirement for surplus to tomorrow you are amplifying it at the same time.
If there is no surplus with which to pay the borrowing back then borrowed funds are a ponzi scheme that can only lead to bankruptcy unless a "greater fool" appears to take whatever you bought off your hands at a higher price.
Further, very low interest rates are a signal from The Fed that they expect crap economic performance. The rational person who has access to cheap credit but doubts their ability to generate economic surplus in the future is a fool to borrow as they are simply generating their future bankruptcy by doing so irrespective of interest rate! When you have a bunch of academics saying through their policy pronouncements that the economy will be crappy and the government will be handing out borrowed money through a fire hose, thereby destroying the purchasing power of surplus capital, you are sending a strong signal to the market that it's stupid to borrow money.
--http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker&page=2
My comments: I agree exactly. To restate the key points:
1. Only savings produces prosperity.
2. Borrowing should be done only if the money can be used to create economic surplus in the future.
3. This future economic surplus is not possible right now.
4. Therefore it is stupid to borrow money right now irrespective of interest rate.
The only way to get the economy going again is a) raise interest rates to encourage savings, and b) let the chips fall where they may on bad debts. Instead the Fed is prolonging the misery.
Debt is not the solution, it is the problem.
Only economic surplus -- that is, savings -- produces prosperity. It does so through capital formation which has as its predicate savings.
Borrowing is a short-term elixer that has its place, but it requires more surplus to pay back borrowing than to simply save in the first place, as you must pay both the original borrowed funds and the interest. This in turn means that when you borrow you are not only time-shifting your requirement for surplus to tomorrow you are amplifying it at the same time.
If there is no surplus with which to pay the borrowing back then borrowed funds are a ponzi scheme that can only lead to bankruptcy unless a "greater fool" appears to take whatever you bought off your hands at a higher price.
Further, very low interest rates are a signal from The Fed that they expect crap economic performance. The rational person who has access to cheap credit but doubts their ability to generate economic surplus in the future is a fool to borrow as they are simply generating their future bankruptcy by doing so irrespective of interest rate! When you have a bunch of academics saying through their policy pronouncements that the economy will be crappy and the government will be handing out borrowed money through a fire hose, thereby destroying the purchasing power of surplus capital, you are sending a strong signal to the market that it's stupid to borrow money.
--http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker&page=2
My comments: I agree exactly. To restate the key points:
1. Only savings produces prosperity.
2. Borrowing should be done only if the money can be used to create economic surplus in the future.
3. This future economic surplus is not possible right now.
4. Therefore it is stupid to borrow money right now irrespective of interest rate.
The only way to get the economy going again is a) raise interest rates to encourage savings, and b) let the chips fall where they may on bad debts. Instead the Fed is prolonging the misery.
Debt is not the solution, it is the problem.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Interest rates explode after 2029
This is a very simple model, probably flawed. If interest rates ever exceed 5% of GDP then we have a serious problem. At this point, at least 25% of revenues would go just to pay interest. After this point, the situation deteriorates rapidly.
I got the numbers through 2022 from the official OMB budget FY2013 proposal. After that, I assume that GDP increases 4.5%/year. For interest, I assume that it increases 10%/year after 2022.
Interest rates really have nowhere to go but up, and on a skyrocketing base.
This is model L-1.
Update: 6/25/2012. This is similar to Model G-1, which saw danger in gross interest paid exceeding 40% of revenue. Net interest seems to be about half of gross interest.
I got the numbers through 2022 from the official OMB budget FY2013 proposal. After that, I assume that GDP increases 4.5%/year. For interest, I assume that it increases 10%/year after 2022.
Interest rates really have nowhere to go but up, and on a skyrocketing base.
| Year | GDP (trillions) | Interest (trillions) | Int % of GDP |
| 2011 | 15.1 | 0.23 | 1.52% |
| 2012 | 15.8 | 0.22 | 1.39% |
| 2013 | 16.5 | 0.25 | 1.51% |
| 2014 | 17.4 | 0.31 | 1.78% |
| 2015 | 18.4 | 0.39 | 2.11% |
| 2016 | 19.5 | 0.48 | 2.46% |
| 2017 | 20.7 | 0.57 | 2.76% |
| 2018 | 21.7 | 0.65 | 2.97% |
| 2019 | 22.7 | 0.72 | 3.16% |
| 2020 | 23.7 | 0.78 | 3.31% |
| 2021 | 24.7 | 0.85 | 3.43% |
| 2022 | 25.8 | 0.92 | 3.55% |
| 2023 | 26.9 | 1.01 | 3.74% |
| 2024 | 28.1 | 1.11 | 3.94% |
| 2025 | 29.4 | 1.22 | 4.14% |
| 2026 | 30.7 | 1.34 | 4.36% |
| 2027 | 32.1 | 1.47 | 4.59% |
| 2028 | 33.5 | 1.62 | 4.83% |
| 2029 | 35.1 | 1.78 | 5.09% |
Update: 6/25/2012. This is similar to Model G-1, which saw danger in gross interest paid exceeding 40% of revenue. Net interest seems to be about half of gross interest.
Organized Crime
Here is a fascinating website on organized crime: http://www.reportingproject.net/occrp/. Also see:
http://www.reportingproject.net/offshore/
http://www.reportingproject.net/proxy/en/
http://www.secrecyjurisdictions.com/
http://www.reportingproject.net/offshore/
http://www.reportingproject.net/proxy/en/
http://www.secrecyjurisdictions.com/
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
The Ruins of New York
It’s only a short ferry ride from the
bustle of city life, but the small island a half mile south of
Manhattan is worlds away from the chaos of New York City.
While most New Yorkers think of Governor’s Island as a concert venue, an outdoor haven, or simply a respite from endless blocks of skyscrapers and concrete, a crumbling portion of the island reveals a very different history.
Stairwells strewn with debris and walls crumbling slowly to dust, it is the island that New York forgot for 50 years. Now, in a series of extraordinarily eerie pictures, the lost world of North Brother - quarantine zone, leper colony and centre for drug addicts - has been brought back to life.
It is hard to believe that these echoing corridors and abandoned halls were home to hundreds of patients - or that a criss-cross of tree-lined avenues were once roads.
But the haunting quality of these pictures makes it easy to imagine that it was a place of indescribable misery, which one inmate compared to the notorious black hole of Calcutta.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2094823/North-Brother-Island-Eerie-pictures-abandoned-New-York-leper-colony.html#ixzz1yNqBM2D5
Read more: http://io9.com/5917104/a-womens-asylum-rots-on-an-abandoned-new-york-island
What's more intriguing than an abandoned island with a rotting castle sitting just north of New York City? Bannerman's Island sits in the Hudson, just about 50 miles north of here, and American Heritage explains "this island fortress was once the private arsenal of the world's largest arms dealer," Frank "Francis" Bannerman.
--http://gothamist.com/2008/10/14/bannerman_island.php#photo-1
The woods in this part of Staten Island grow dense, thicketed with thorny branches and barbed plants. Emerging from them, a large brick building looms, crumbling from years of disuse. Entering through a graffiti-covered archway, you find a sizable hallway lined with dilapidated concrete cubicles. This is the abandoned Sea View Hospital, a forgotten relic of the days when mental illness lead to being locked away and forgotten.
In its heyday, Sea View Hospital doubled as a tuberculosis treatment facility, although given the lack of a proper cure, it was more hospice than hospital. When the TB vaccine came along in 1946, the clinic was shuttered, but never demolished. Now it sits in the woodlands across the street from the new and improved Sea View, developed out of the half of the original facility that was not closed down. My roommate, an avid urban explorer, took me to visit the ruins of the sanatorium.
While most New Yorkers think of Governor’s Island as a concert venue, an outdoor haven, or simply a respite from endless blocks of skyscrapers and concrete, a crumbling portion of the island reveals a very different history.
Stairwells strewn with debris and walls crumbling slowly to dust, it is the island that New York forgot for 50 years. Now, in a series of extraordinarily eerie pictures, the lost world of North Brother - quarantine zone, leper colony and centre for drug addicts - has been brought back to life.
It is hard to believe that these echoing corridors and abandoned halls were home to hundreds of patients - or that a criss-cross of tree-lined avenues were once roads.
But the haunting quality of these pictures makes it easy to imagine that it was a place of indescribable misery, which one inmate compared to the notorious black hole of Calcutta.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2094823/North-Brother-Island-Eerie-pictures-abandoned-New-York-leper-colony.html#ixzz1yNqBM2D5
A women’s asylum rots on an abandoned New York island
Hart Island, which sits at the western end of New York's
Long Island Sound, boasts more than 850,000 residents - all of them
dead. The island is now used primarily as a potter's field, but in its
past it has housed a POW camp, a rehab facility, and a women's insane
asylum.Read more: http://io9.com/5917104/a-womens-asylum-rots-on-an-abandoned-new-york-island
What's more intriguing than an abandoned island with a rotting castle sitting just north of New York City? Bannerman's Island sits in the Hudson, just about 50 miles north of here, and American Heritage explains "this island fortress was once the private arsenal of the world's largest arms dealer," Frank "Francis" Bannerman.
--http://gothamist.com/2008/10/14/bannerman_island.php#photo-1
The woods in this part of Staten Island grow dense, thicketed with thorny branches and barbed plants. Emerging from them, a large brick building looms, crumbling from years of disuse. Entering through a graffiti-covered archway, you find a sizable hallway lined with dilapidated concrete cubicles. This is the abandoned Sea View Hospital, a forgotten relic of the days when mental illness lead to being locked away and forgotten.
In its heyday, Sea View Hospital doubled as a tuberculosis treatment facility, although given the lack of a proper cure, it was more hospice than hospital. When the TB vaccine came along in 1946, the clinic was shuttered, but never demolished. Now it sits in the woodlands across the street from the new and improved Sea View, developed out of the half of the original facility that was not closed down. My roommate, an avid urban explorer, took me to visit the ruins of the sanatorium.
The Village Idiot Speaks
"Economist Paul Krugman has a simple solution to America's economic woes: Prepare for an alien invasion. Arguing that the United States successfully ended the Great
Depression with government spending, he provided an interesting idea
about how to replicate that economic feat on Tuesday at the Take Back
the American Dream conference in Washington, D.C.
"If you actually look at what took us out of the Great Depression," the Princeton University professor said in an interview with Chris Hayes of MSNBC. "It was Europe's entry into World War II and the U.S. buildup that began in advance."
"So if we could get something that could cause the government to say, ‘Oh, never mind those budget things; let’s just spend and do a bunch of stuff.' So my fake threat from space aliens is the other route,” Krugman said before a laughing crowd. “I’ve been proposing that.”
--http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/paul-krugman-alien-invasion_n_1609805.html
Krugman, you just want to spend more money. How about pay one guy to dig holes and pay another guy to fill them back in again? As for the idea of war to get us out of a depression, what do you think we are doing in Afghanistan? What do you think Homeland Security is?
"If you actually look at what took us out of the Great Depression," the Princeton University professor said in an interview with Chris Hayes of MSNBC. "It was Europe's entry into World War II and the U.S. buildup that began in advance."
"So if we could get something that could cause the government to say, ‘Oh, never mind those budget things; let’s just spend and do a bunch of stuff.' So my fake threat from space aliens is the other route,” Krugman said before a laughing crowd. “I’ve been proposing that.”
--http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/paul-krugman-alien-invasion_n_1609805.html
Krugman, you just want to spend more money. How about pay one guy to dig holes and pay another guy to fill them back in again? As for the idea of war to get us out of a depression, what do you think we are doing in Afghanistan? What do you think Homeland Security is?
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
The US is the only country to which MMT applies
" Today, the US Dollar is the international reserve currency—making
the US special. … the two main reasons why the US can run persistent
current account deficits are: a) virtually all its foreign-held debt is
in Dollars; and b) external demand for Dollar-denominated assets is
high—for a variety of reasons.
The main reason seems that the U.S. issues the main reserve currency
and you issue a liability (so to speak, it’s fiat money) internationally
fully accepted even without a commitment to convert it in something
else."
--http://www.concertedaction.com/2012/05/06/born-in-the-u-s-a-mmt-and-monetary-sovereignty/
Everybody wants dollars, and the only way to make more dollars (as opposed to borrowing them), is for the US to run a deficit. The whole world finances the deficit by using dollars.
--http://www.concertedaction.com/2012/05/06/born-in-the-u-s-a-mmt-and-monetary-sovereignty/
Everybody wants dollars, and the only way to make more dollars (as opposed to borrowing them), is for the US to run a deficit. The whole world finances the deficit by using dollars.
WW3 about to begin in Syria
On the one side, Russia, China, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah/Lebanon. These are the Shia Muslims.
"Beijing is reported to have asked Egyptian authorities to permit the passage through the Suez Canal in late June of 12 naval ships heading for the Syrian port of Tartus, where Moscow maintains a naval and marine base."
-- http://www.debka.com/article/22094/Russia-China-Iran-plan-to-stage-in-Syria-%E2%80%9Cbiggest-Mid-East-maneuver%E2%80%9D-
On the other side, the US, NATO/G-20, Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Syrian Rebels. The Arabs involved are the Sunni Muslims.
The UN is ineffective is stopping this, just like the League of Nations was ineffective in stopping WW2.
"Moscow, by sending troops to Syria without UN Security Council approval, has set a precedent for the United States, the European Union and Arab governments to follow. They all held back from sending troops to Syria because all motions to apply force for halting the bloodshed in Syria were blocked in the UN body by Russia and China."
--http://www.debka.com/article/22088/US-military-intervention-in-Syria-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9CNot-if-but-when%E2%80%9D
"The President Bashar al-Assad, retains the support of his armed forces because the officer class, and many of the troops, belong to his own Alawite sect. The Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam, are a minority in Syria, but they have governed the country for almost half a century.
Without foreign intervention on the side of the rebels, it is likely that Assad would have crushed the revolt by now, doubtless brutally. But the Syrian civil war has been fomented by outside interests. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states have been backing the rebels, supplying them with money and arms. So has Turkey and so, crucially, has the USA. Assad, however, is backed by Russia, the long time ally of the regime which provides Russia with a Mediterranean port. Iran also supports Assad and it is the link between Iran and Syria, rather than humanitarian impulses, which accounts for American support of the rebellion."
--http://www.scotsman.com/news/allan-massie-syria-remains-mired-in-conflict-as-egypt-evolves-1-2364074
The Suez Canal is open to warships of all countries, in time of war or peace.
"Beijing is reported to have asked Egyptian authorities to permit the passage through the Suez Canal in late June of 12 naval ships heading for the Syrian port of Tartus, where Moscow maintains a naval and marine base."
-- http://www.debka.com/article/22094/Russia-China-Iran-plan-to-stage-in-Syria-%E2%80%9Cbiggest-Mid-East-maneuver%E2%80%9D-
On the other side, the US, NATO/G-20, Turkey, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Syrian Rebels. The Arabs involved are the Sunni Muslims.
The UN is ineffective is stopping this, just like the League of Nations was ineffective in stopping WW2.
"Moscow, by sending troops to Syria without UN Security Council approval, has set a precedent for the United States, the European Union and Arab governments to follow. They all held back from sending troops to Syria because all motions to apply force for halting the bloodshed in Syria were blocked in the UN body by Russia and China."
--http://www.debka.com/article/22088/US-military-intervention-in-Syria-%E2%80%93-%E2%80%9CNot-if-but-when%E2%80%9D
"The President Bashar al-Assad, retains the support of his armed forces because the officer class, and many of the troops, belong to his own Alawite sect. The Alawites, an offshoot of Shia Islam, are a minority in Syria, but they have governed the country for almost half a century.
Without foreign intervention on the side of the rebels, it is likely that Assad would have crushed the revolt by now, doubtless brutally. But the Syrian civil war has been fomented by outside interests. Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states have been backing the rebels, supplying them with money and arms. So has Turkey and so, crucially, has the USA. Assad, however, is backed by Russia, the long time ally of the regime which provides Russia with a Mediterranean port. Iran also supports Assad and it is the link between Iran and Syria, rather than humanitarian impulses, which accounts for American support of the rebellion."
--http://www.scotsman.com/news/allan-massie-syria-remains-mired-in-conflict-as-egypt-evolves-1-2364074
The Suez Canal is open to warships of all countries, in time of war or peace.
Spacefaring
Excalibur Almaz will charge wannabe astronauts an average of £100m for a six-eight month journey exploring deep space.
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5af9e2a-ba21-11e1-aa8d-00144feabdc0.html
=================
Art Dula, who founded the company in 2005, announced a plan to carry out the first test flight in 2014 and the first civilian voyage a year later in a speech at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London yesterday. He later told the Daily Telegraph: "This is not space tourism, it is real scientific expedition – they would go further than anybody has gone before in space. "We want to have the same kind of tradition that Britain had in the 16th and 17th centuries when its explorers went to the ends of the earth seeking knowledge and information and bringing back wealth."I don't know how much wealth they will bring back, but the first person to fly it will earn a place in the history books."
Crew members, numbering up to three per shuttle, would spend a year in training before launching the shuttle from a base in Kazakhstan and docking with a space station, which would then use thrusters to ferry passengers through space. The slow speed of the thrusters, compared with more expensive rockets, would mean a mission to the moon and back would take four months to complete, with the craft spiralling through space "like an etch-a-sketch", Mr Dula explained.
He said: "The engines are very low-thrust, they are very dependable but they run on electricity. This kind of technology has been used before but never for a big habitation module like ours.
"We are probably not going to have a professional astronaut because frankly, this type of space flight is so different to anything that has been before that there is no advantage in having someone what has a steely eye and can make a decision in half a second. With the kind of equipment we have you could make a decision overnight and sleep on it."
From the space station the crew would be able to carry out any scientific experiments they wished, using equipment ferried with them on the shuttle, and later missions could potentially even orbit the moon, he added.
Excalibur Almaz acquired its fleet from NPO Mashinostroyenia, the Russian company which designed the Almaz space programme, and refitted the six craft with "off the shelf" modern systems.On its website the company says: "Each EA space station boasts 90 cubic metres of pressurised volume, which is plenty for a crew to survive in relative comfort for months at a time. The fleet is at a very high level of space readiness and, crucially, has a proven emergency-escape system."
Mr Dula admitted his plan sounded "somewhat unbelievable" but insisted he would have no shortage of takers.He said: "A sovereign government could certainly afford it, it is not anywhere near what an Apollo mission would cost because we have well over £1 billion of costs that the Soviets have sunk into it. But this have to be a government body.
"There have always been very wealthy individuals who have sponsored scientific missions ... we simply do not know who is going to do it, who since childhood has desperately wanted to go into space, but I expect we will have a lot of interested people."Dr Dave Parker of the UK Space Agency said the move was part of a "whole new world" of private space travel but added that he was "pretty sceptical" that a civilian could be trained to fly a spacecraft in the space of a year.He said: "What they are doing is trying to put together some pieces of existing technology from Russia with a few bits of new technology so that they can re-use it and they have been trying to develop this idea for a good few years now.
"Obviously the reality is they do not have the investment to do any of this at the moment. But good luck to them, people have got to try things like this."
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9342210/Fly-to-the-moon-for-100m.html
See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5af9e2a-ba21-11e1-aa8d-00144feabdc0.html
=================
Excalibur Almaz, a British space company based on the Isle of Man, has
announced plans to make the first trip to the moon since the Apollo 17
mission of 1972. The company has acquired a fleet of former Soviet shuttles and space stations
and is planning the mission in three years time. The flight, which would last four months and fly past the moon at a distance
of 1000km, is open to anyone who can finance it including
government-sponsored researchers, space agency scientists or even
billionaires with money to burn. But any space enthusiast wishing to make the trip would have to be willing to
fly the craft themself because no trained astronauts would accompany them on
their odyssey, the company said.
Art Dula, who founded the company in 2005, announced a plan to carry out the first test flight in 2014 and the first civilian voyage a year later in a speech at the Royal Aeronautical Society in London yesterday. He later told the Daily Telegraph: "This is not space tourism, it is real scientific expedition – they would go further than anybody has gone before in space. "We want to have the same kind of tradition that Britain had in the 16th and 17th centuries when its explorers went to the ends of the earth seeking knowledge and information and bringing back wealth."I don't know how much wealth they will bring back, but the first person to fly it will earn a place in the history books."
Crew members, numbering up to three per shuttle, would spend a year in training before launching the shuttle from a base in Kazakhstan and docking with a space station, which would then use thrusters to ferry passengers through space. The slow speed of the thrusters, compared with more expensive rockets, would mean a mission to the moon and back would take four months to complete, with the craft spiralling through space "like an etch-a-sketch", Mr Dula explained.
He said: "The engines are very low-thrust, they are very dependable but they run on electricity. This kind of technology has been used before but never for a big habitation module like ours.
"We are probably not going to have a professional astronaut because frankly, this type of space flight is so different to anything that has been before that there is no advantage in having someone what has a steely eye and can make a decision in half a second. With the kind of equipment we have you could make a decision overnight and sleep on it."
From the space station the crew would be able to carry out any scientific experiments they wished, using equipment ferried with them on the shuttle, and later missions could potentially even orbit the moon, he added.
Excalibur Almaz acquired its fleet from NPO Mashinostroyenia, the Russian company which designed the Almaz space programme, and refitted the six craft with "off the shelf" modern systems.On its website the company says: "Each EA space station boasts 90 cubic metres of pressurised volume, which is plenty for a crew to survive in relative comfort for months at a time. The fleet is at a very high level of space readiness and, crucially, has a proven emergency-escape system."
Mr Dula admitted his plan sounded "somewhat unbelievable" but insisted he would have no shortage of takers.He said: "A sovereign government could certainly afford it, it is not anywhere near what an Apollo mission would cost because we have well over £1 billion of costs that the Soviets have sunk into it. But this have to be a government body.
"There have always been very wealthy individuals who have sponsored scientific missions ... we simply do not know who is going to do it, who since childhood has desperately wanted to go into space, but I expect we will have a lot of interested people."Dr Dave Parker of the UK Space Agency said the move was part of a "whole new world" of private space travel but added that he was "pretty sceptical" that a civilian could be trained to fly a spacecraft in the space of a year.He said: "What they are doing is trying to put together some pieces of existing technology from Russia with a few bits of new technology so that they can re-use it and they have been trying to develop this idea for a good few years now.
"Obviously the reality is they do not have the investment to do any of this at the moment. But good luck to them, people have got to try things like this."
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/9342210/Fly-to-the-moon-for-100m.html
New Projection: 2024
I've been going through some past models and predictions I made to see if any still have validity, and I have classified them according to model type. Model D is interesting. It looks at the average increase in the debt to project forward, and then looks for a breaking point when the debt exceeds 10 times revenues. It ignores GDP entirely. So this is an update in the D series, and I call this model D-4.
1. Look at the average increase in the debt. From 3/31/10 to 3/31/12, the average increase in the gross national debt per quarter has been 2.52%. On an annualized basis, this is 10.4%. I think using 10% growth on an annualized basis is a very reasonable, even slightly conservative assumption. Start with 9/30/2012 when the debt will be about $16.35 trillion (just below the debt limit), and project forward at the rate of 10%/year.
2. Project revenue. This is difficult, but I choose to start with 4200 in the year 2020 and see growth of 5%/year.
3. Now look for when debt exceed 10 times revenue.
The tipping point is in 2024 when revenues are 5100 and the debt is 51300.
1. Look at the average increase in the debt. From 3/31/10 to 3/31/12, the average increase in the gross national debt per quarter has been 2.52%. On an annualized basis, this is 10.4%. I think using 10% growth on an annualized basis is a very reasonable, even slightly conservative assumption. Start with 9/30/2012 when the debt will be about $16.35 trillion (just below the debt limit), and project forward at the rate of 10%/year.
2. Project revenue. This is difficult, but I choose to start with 4200 in the year 2020 and see growth of 5%/year.
3. Now look for when debt exceed 10 times revenue.
The tipping point is in 2024 when revenues are 5100 and the debt is 51300.
Modern-day Nostradamus
"New York Times bestselling author Joel C. Rosenberg – known as a
“modern-day Nostradamus” – says America may face cataclysmic collapse in
the not-too distant future.
In his new book, Implosion: Can America Recover from its Economic & Spiritual Challenges in Time? (Tyndale House Publishers), Rosenberg explores the question a growing number of politicians, academics, authors and others are asking about the future of the United States.
“My concern is we are experiencing an epic failure of leadership at almost every level of American society right now,” Rosenberg told WND. “Something has gone terribly wrong with the American experiment. Our families are imploding, our national debt is exploding, experts on the left and right are warning us that we need to change our direction because we’re on an unsustainable trajectory economically, socially and culturally.
U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., chairman of the House Budget Committee, told members of Congress the nation is on an unsustainable path where its debt is expected to rise from 68 percent of Gross Domestic Product to 800 percent of GDP in the coming decades.
Last week, Ryan said witnesses at a Congressional Budget Office hearing testified the nation has two years “before we have a debt crisis like Europe is experiencing.”
http://www.wnd.com/2012/06/author-will-america-go-out-with-a-bang/
In his new book, Implosion: Can America Recover from its Economic & Spiritual Challenges in Time? (Tyndale House Publishers), Rosenberg explores the question a growing number of politicians, academics, authors and others are asking about the future of the United States.
“My concern is we are experiencing an epic failure of leadership at almost every level of American society right now,” Rosenberg told WND. “Something has gone terribly wrong with the American experiment. Our families are imploding, our national debt is exploding, experts on the left and right are warning us that we need to change our direction because we’re on an unsustainable trajectory economically, socially and culturally.
U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., chairman of the House Budget Committee, told members of Congress the nation is on an unsustainable path where its debt is expected to rise from 68 percent of Gross Domestic Product to 800 percent of GDP in the coming decades.
Last week, Ryan said witnesses at a Congressional Budget Office hearing testified the nation has two years “before we have a debt crisis like Europe is experiencing.”
http://www.wnd.com/2012/06/author-will-america-go-out-with-a-bang/
Monday, June 18, 2012
Top 50 Supercomputer Locations
I just discovered the Supercomputer list (top500.org) last week, and already it is updated. Having a supercomputer in your city is at least impressive as having a skyscraper and it is probably more useful. Here is the new list of the top 25, with previous ranking in brackets.
This is a very rapidly changing area. The 50th computer on this list has a speed of 345 Teraflops, while the 50th computer in Nov. 2011 had a speed of only 204 Teraflops.
- San Francisco ("Sequoia", LLNL) [17, upgraded]
- Osaka ("K", Riken) [1]
- Chicago ("Mira", Argonne) [new]
- Munich ("SuperMUC", Leibniz) [new]
- Tianjin ("Tianhe", NSC-Tianjin) [2]
- Knoxville TN ("Jaguar", ORNL) [3]
- Rome ("Fermi", CINECA in Bologna) [new]
- Rhine/Ruhr ("JuQueen", Juelich) [new]
- Paris ("Curie", CEA) [new]
- Shenzhen ("Nebulae", NSC-Shenzhen) [4]
- San Francisco ("Pleiades", NASA/Ames) [7, upgraded]
- Tokyo ("Helios", Rokkasho) [28, upgraded]
- Manchester ("Blue Joule", Warrington) [new]
- Tokyo, ("Tsubame", GSIC ) [5]
- Albuquerque ("Cielo",LLNL) [6]
- San Francisco ("Hopper", LBNL) [8]
- Paris ("Tera-100", CEA) [9]
- Tokyo ("Oakleaf", Univ. of Tokyo) [new]
- Albuquerque ("Roadrunner", LANL) [10]
- Edinburgh ("Dirac", Univ. of Edinburgh) [new]
- Knoxville ("Kraken", Univ. of Tenn.)[11]
- Moscow ("Lomonosov", Moscow St. Univ) [18, upgraded]
- Washington ("DARPA", IBM) [new]
- Stuttgart ("Hermet", Univ. of Stuttgart) [12]
- Rhine/Ruhr ("JuGene", Juelich) [13]
- Jinan ("Sunway", NSC-Jinan) [14]
- San Francisco ("Zin", LLNL) [15]
- Changsha ("Tianhe Hunan", NSC-Hunan) [16]
- Paris ("Zumbrota", EDF) [new]
- Paris ("BlueGene", IDRIS) [new]
- Melbourne ("Avoca", Victorian Life Scienses) [new]
- Edinburgh ("Hector", Univ. of Edinburgh) [19]
- Knoxville ("Gaea", ORNL) [20]
- London ("Power 775", ECMWF-Oxford) [55, upgraded]
- London ("Twin Power", ECMWF-Oxford) [new]
- Tokyo ("BlueGene HEARO", KEK-Tsukuba) [new]
- Beijing ("Mole", IPE) [21]
- Chicago ("Intrepid", Argonne) [23]
- Albuquerque ("Sunblade", Sandia) [24]
- Austin ("Ranger", Univ. of Texas) [25]
- Tokyo ("X-GreenBlade", KEK-Tsukuba) [new]
- San Francisco ("Dawn", LLNL) [26]
- London ("Power 775", UKMO) [62,upgraded]
- Oslo ("Altix", NUST) [new]
- Paris ("Bull" ) [27]
- San Francisco ("Cab", LLNL) [new]
- Albuquerque ("Luna", LANL) [45, upgraded]
- San Francisco ("Vulcan", LLNL) [new]
- Toronto/Buffalo ("BlueGene/Q", IBM-Rochester) [29]
- Toronto/Buffalo ("BlueGene/Q 2", IBM-Rochester) [64, upgraded]
This is a very rapidly changing area. The 50th computer on this list has a speed of 345 Teraflops, while the 50th computer in Nov. 2011 had a speed of only 204 Teraflops.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
The Guangzhou-Foshan Metropolitan Area
Guangzhou (pop. 11.1 million) and Foshan (pop. 7.2 million) make up one metropolitan area of 18.2 million people. This is up 4.4 million from 2000. The neighboring cities of Dongguan and Zhongshan are clearly separate cities.
There is talk of merging all of the cities in the Pearl River Delta into one mega-city of 50 million plus people. Other reports deny this. However, both agree that there are plans to make 3 mega-cities in Guangdong: Guangfozhao (Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing), Shenguanhui (Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou) and Zhuzhongjiang (Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen).
There is talk of merging all of the cities in the Pearl River Delta into one mega-city of 50 million plus people. Other reports deny this. However, both agree that there are plans to make 3 mega-cities in Guangdong: Guangfozhao (Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing), Shenguanhui (Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou) and Zhuzhongjiang (Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen).
Cities that are not world class
I've wasted a lot of time trying to rank cities, and I think I have a pretty good list of 118 cities with a nominal GDP of over $70 billion/year. Here are cities that were in my first list of 100 that I don't think are world class cities, with some remarks:
Delhi. This city has a population of about 23 million, but the average GDP in India is only $1400/person. Delhi is probably above the national average. A news article says that the GDP of Delhi is estimated at 3.13 lakh crore for FY 2011-2012. Well a lakh is 100,000 and a crore is 10 million, so that equals 3.13 trillion rupees. At 55 rupees/dollar that is about $56 billion/year. What about Mumbai? I read that Mumbai generates about 6% of the GDP for the entire country. India's GDP is about $1.67 trillion, and 6% of that is about $100 billion.
Geneva. Geneva is a very wealthy, but the metro area only has 466,000 in it.
Jersey/Guernsey/Isle of Man. Each has less than 100,000.
Edinburgh/Glasgow. Again these are too small to make the list.
Cairo. Another mega-city made of up very poor people.
Kuala Lumpur. This almost makes the list as it has a much higher GDP than Cairo or Delhi, but it is still less than $10,000/person and the population is 6.5 million.
Auckland/Wellington, New Zealand. Auckland has 1.4 million, and Wellington has about 400,000. Even combined, these are too small. The whole country has a GDP of only $161 billion.
Luxembourg. Too small.
Helsinki. Too small
Honolulu. Also too small.
Kolkata. Too poor
Bogota. Too poor.
Calgary. Just below the limit of the list. There are only 1.3 million people there.
Manama, Bahrain. Too small.
Caracas. Too poor.
Bermuda/BVI/Cayman Islands. Very wealthy but too small.
Lima. Too poor.
Bangalore. Too poor.
Delhi. This city has a population of about 23 million, but the average GDP in India is only $1400/person. Delhi is probably above the national average. A news article says that the GDP of Delhi is estimated at 3.13 lakh crore for FY 2011-2012. Well a lakh is 100,000 and a crore is 10 million, so that equals 3.13 trillion rupees. At 55 rupees/dollar that is about $56 billion/year. What about Mumbai? I read that Mumbai generates about 6% of the GDP for the entire country. India's GDP is about $1.67 trillion, and 6% of that is about $100 billion.
Geneva. Geneva is a very wealthy, but the metro area only has 466,000 in it.
Jersey/Guernsey/Isle of Man. Each has less than 100,000.
Edinburgh/Glasgow. Again these are too small to make the list.
Cairo. Another mega-city made of up very poor people.
Kuala Lumpur. This almost makes the list as it has a much higher GDP than Cairo or Delhi, but it is still less than $10,000/person and the population is 6.5 million.
Auckland/Wellington, New Zealand. Auckland has 1.4 million, and Wellington has about 400,000. Even combined, these are too small. The whole country has a GDP of only $161 billion.
Luxembourg. Too small.
Helsinki. Too small
Honolulu. Also too small.
Kolkata. Too poor
Bogota. Too poor.
Calgary. Just below the limit of the list. There are only 1.3 million people there.
Manama, Bahrain. Too small.
Caracas. Too poor.
Bermuda/BVI/Cayman Islands. Very wealthy but too small.
Lima. Too poor.
Bangalore. Too poor.
Saturday, June 16, 2012
List of important internet cities
These are the locations of the internet root servers. Some cities has multiple servers, so they are more important. The biggest surprise here is Auckland, which has 7 servers, while Sydney only has 3.
- San Francisco, CA, US (14 sites)
- Washington (11 sites)
- Los Angeles, CA, US (8 sites)
- Tokyo, JP (8 sites)
- Auckland/Wellington, NZ (7 sites)
- Paris, FR (7 sites)
- Miami, FL, US (6 sites)
- New York, NY, US (6 sites)
- Amsterdam, NL (5 sites)
- Beijing, CN (5 sites)
- Chicago, IL, US (5 sites)
- Frankfurt, DE (5 sites)
- Hong Kong, HK (5 sites)
- Toronto, CA (5 sites)
- Sao Paulo/Campinas, BR (5 sites)
- Atlanta, GA, US (4 sites)
- Brussels, BE (4 sites)
- Cairo, EG (4 sites)
- Johannesburg, ZA (4 sites)
- London, UK (4 sites)
- Perth, AU (4 sites)
- Seoul, KR (4 sites)
- Singapore, SG (4 sites)
- Stockholm, SE (4 sites)
- Oslo, NO (4 sites)
- Brisbane, AU (3 sites)
- Buenos Aires, AR (3 sites)
- Geneva, CH (3 sites)
- Helsinki, FI (3 sites)
- Istanbul, Turkey (3 sites)
- Jakarta, ID (3 sites)
- Kuala Lumpur, MY (3 sites)
- Madrid, ES (3 sites)
- Manila, PH (3 sites)
- Milan, IT (3 sites)
- Moscow, RU (3 sites)
- Nairobi, KE (3 sites)
- Ottawa, Canada (3 sites)
- Prague, CZ (3 sites)
- Santiago de Chile, CL (3 sites)
- Sydney, AU(3 sites)
- Taipei, TW (3 sites)
- Turin, IT (3 sites)
- Warsaw, PL (3 sites)
- Athens, GR (2 sites)
- Boston, MA, US (2 sites)
- Brasilia, BR (2 sites)
- Cape Town, ZA (2 sites)
- Dhaka, BD (2 sites)
- Doha, QA (2 sites)
- Dublin, IE (2 sites)
- Guam, GU, US (2 sites)
- Honolulu, HI, US (2 sites)
- Lisbon, PT (2 sites)
- Luxembourg City, LU (2 sites)
- Monterrey, MX (2 sites)
- Mumbai, IN (2 cities)
- Munich, DE (2 sites)
- Porto Alegre, BR (2 sites)
- Quito, EC (2 sites)
- Rhine/Ruhr, DE (2 sites)
- Rome, IT (2 sites)
- Anchorage, US (2 sites)
- Seattle, WA, US (2 sites)
- Sofia, BG (2 sites)
- Vienna, AT (2 sites)
- Abu Dhabi, AE
- Al Muharraq, Bahrain
- Ankara, TR
- Bangkok, TH
- Barcelona, ES
- Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, BR
- Berlin, DE
- Bogota, Colombia
- Bucharest, RO
- Budapest, HU
- Caracas, VE
- Chennai, IN;
- Colombo, LK
- Copenhagen, Denmark
- Curitiba, Parana, BR
- Dakar, Senegal
- Dallas, TX, US
- Dammam, SA
- Dar es Salaam, TZ
- Delhi, IN
- Denver, CO, US
- Dubai, AE
- Edinburgh, UK;
- Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, BR
- Fribourg, CH
- Hamburg, DE
- Jacksonville, FL, US
- Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- Karachi, PK
- Kathmandu, Nepal
- Kaunas, LT
- Kharkiv, Ukraine
- Kiev, Ukraine
- Lima (Callao), Peru
- Londrina, Parana, BR
- Lyon, France
- Malmo, Sweden
- Maputo, Mozambique
- Marseille, FR
- Montevideo, Uruguay
- Montreal, CA
- Novosibirsk, RU
- Odessa, Ukraine
- Osaka, JP
- Panama, PA
- Philadelphia, PA, US
- Podgorica, ME
- Portland, OR, US
- Poznan, PL
- Reykjavik, IS
- Riga, LV
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
- San Diego, CA, US
- San Juan, PR
- Sanaa, Yemen
- Semey, Kazakhstan
- St Denis, Reunion, France
- St. Maarten, AN
- Suva, Fiji
- Tallinn, EE
- Tel Aviv, IL
- Thimphu, Bhutan
- Vancouver, CA
- Yerevan, AM
- Zurich, Switzerland
Top 100 Supercomputer Locations
If you want to rank cities, the location of supercomputers may be one factor. They are expensive to build and maintain and presumably they give some benefit to the surrounding area. Here is a list of the top 100 supercomputers in the world by nearest big city, computer name, organization, and local city. Some of the cities are guesses (like anything in Korea is labeled Seoul). This is similar to the other lists in some ways and different in other, with surprises, like Knoxville TN, and Albuquerque.
- Osaka ("K", Riken, Kobe, Japan).
- Tianjin (NSC-Tianjin)
- Knoxville, TN ("Jaguar", ORNL).
- Shenzhen (NSCS)
- Tokyo (GSIC)
- Albuquerque (LANL, Los Alamos)
- San Francisco (NASA Ames)
- San Francisco (NERSC)
- Paris (Bull)
- Albuquerque (LANL)
- Knoxville, TN (Univ of Tenn)
- Stuttgart (Univ. of Stuttgart)
- Rhine/Ruhr (Juelich)
- Jinan, China (NSC-Jinan)
- San Francisco (LLNL)
- Changsha, China (NSC-Hunan)
- San Francisco (LLNL)
- Moscow
- Edinburgh
- Knoxville, TN (ORNL)
- Beijing
- San Francisco (LLNL)
- Chicago (Argonne)
- Albuquerque (Sandia)
- Austin (UT)
- San Francisco (LLNL)
- Paris (Bull)
- Tokyo (Rokkasho)
- Toronto/Buffalo (IBM Rochester)
- Cincinnati (Wright-Patterson, Dayton)
- Seoul
- Seoul
- Frankfurt
- Zurich
- Washington DC (classified)
- Rhine/Ruhr (Juelich)
- Seoul
- San Francisco (LBNL)
- Austin (UT)
- Paris (Airbus)
- Montreal (Sherbrooke)
- Seattle (Amazon)
- Paris
- Stockholm
- Albuquerque (LANL)
- Albuquerque (LANL)
- Rhine/Ruhr (Aachen)
- San Diego
- Sao Paolo, Brazil (INPE)
- Albuquerque (Sandia)
- Knoxville (ORNL)
- Tokyo (JAEA)
- Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (KAUST)
- Indianapolis (Purdue)
- London (ECMWF, Oxford)
- Montreal (Enviro Canada, Dorval)
- Montreal
- Shanghai
- Paris
- Taipei
- Albuquerque (Sandia)
- London (UKMO)
- London (UKMO)
- Toronto (IBM Rochester)
- Toronto (IBM Rochester)
- Paris (EDF)
- Toronto (SciNet)
- San Francisco (LLNL)
- Washington DC (classified)
- Copenhagen (Vestas)
- Washington (NOAA, WV)
- Tokyo
- New Orleans (US Army Engineers, Vicksburg MS)
- New York (IBM Poughkeepsie)
- Paris (CEA)
- New Orleans (ERDC Vickburg)
- Vienna
- Denver/Boulder (CU Boulder)
- Los Angeles (USC)
- Seattle (Cray HQ)
- Beijing
- Rome (CINECA Bologna)
- Montreal (McGill)
- Albuquerque (NMCAC)
- Mumbai (TATA)
- San Francisco (LLNL)
- Rome (ENI)
- Krakow, Poland (Cyfronet)
- Albuquerque (LANL)
- Washington (NOAA, Fairmont WV)
- Sydney (Nat Comp, Canberra)
- Chicago (Univ of Chicago)
- London (AWE)
- Tokyo (Saitama)
- Tokyo (Hokkaido Univ)
- Washington (Virginia Tech)
- Paris (IDRIS)
- Hamburg (DKRZ)
- London (ECMWF)
- London (ECMWF)
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Data Center in Las Vegas
"Clients that are coming to Switch in order to locate their high-density equipment are always looking around Las Vegas to see what is the client. That is why Fox moved 60 of their engineers to Las Vegas to run this deployment," Young said.
Each data center is called a super nap. Switch can't build them fast enough to meet demand, which has already created thousands of technical jobs and thousands more in construction. The company says Zappos is here, at least in part, because of Switch. Ditto for several other newcomers.
"Some of the brightest technology minds are coming together in this environment, in this room, to talk about how to prepare and present technology to the world as it continues to evolve," said Chris Donnelly, Switch.
As for the possibility of Las Vegas becoming a data center city, instead of a gambling city, Young says it's already happened.
=========
"Now, Switch is upping the ante on its local operation, more than quintupling the size of its main data center, SuperNAP-7, at 7135 S. Decatur Blvd. Once complete, it'll have 2.2 million square feet, making it the "largest commercially available and independent technology ecosystem in the world," according to Switch's website.
The newspaper also noted that SuperNAP 7 has about 50 diesel generators to handle the power load if the electric grid fails. The facility has 7,000 gallons stored on site for each generator; if the fuel runs out, SuperNAP-7's security force has federal permission to seize supplies from almost anywhere. The federal government ranks its operational importance in a disaster above that of hospitals.
--http://www.lvrj.com/business/switch-communications-data-center-adding-2-2-million-square-feet-130255933.html
=========
"Now, Switch is upping the ante on its local operation, more than quintupling the size of its main data center, SuperNAP-7, at 7135 S. Decatur Blvd. Once complete, it'll have 2.2 million square feet, making it the "largest commercially available and independent technology ecosystem in the world," according to Switch's website.
The newspaper also noted that SuperNAP 7 has about 50 diesel generators to handle the power load if the electric grid fails. The facility has 7,000 gallons stored on site for each generator; if the fuel runs out, SuperNAP-7's security force has federal permission to seize supplies from almost anywhere. The federal government ranks its operational importance in a disaster above that of hospitals.
--http://www.lvrj.com/business/switch-communications-data-center-adding-2-2-million-square-feet-130255933.html
The Genius of Mutual Indebtedness
"The Euro Titanic has hit the iceberg, and there simply aren't enough lifeboats."
One Wilshire
This contains the world's densest "meet-me" room. Over 260 ISPs connect their networks here.
"One tends to think of the internet as a redundant system of remote carriers peppered throughout the world, but in order for the net to function the carriers have to physically connect somewhere. For the Pacific Rim, the main connection point is the One Wilshire building in downtown Los Angeles. If this facility went down, most of California and parts of the rest of the world would not be able to connect to the internet."
Europe is an allegory for the ages of man
“Europe is an allegory for the ages of man. You are born Italian,
relentlessly infantile and mother-obsessed. In childhood, you are
English: chronically shy, tongue-tied clicky and only happy kicking
balls or pulling the legs off things. Teenagers are French:
pretentiously philosophical, embarrassingly vain, ridiculously romantic
yet simultaneously insecure. During Middle-Age, we become either Irish
and fun loving, or Swiss and serious. Old age is German: ponderous,
pompous and pedantic. And finally, we regress into being Belgian, with
no idea of who we are at all.”
Sunday, June 10, 2012
NAP of the Americas in Miami
This massive building in Miami has 750,000 square feet of data center space and hosts one of the root servers of the internet. Almost all of the internet traffic to South America flows through this building.
"Miami has been ranked as one of the top-five best interconnected cities in the world, ahead of San Francisco, Chicago and Washington, D.C. Terremark's NAP of the Americas makes Miami the only city in the U.S. where Optical, Ethernet, MPLS, Voice and Internet traffic is handed off in a single location. The NAP of the Americas is located in downtown Miami, an area that has numerous telecommunications carrier facilities, fiber loops, international cable landings and multiple power grids. The convergence of telecommunications infrastructure is why global carriers, ISPs and other Internet-related businesses, educational institutions, and enterprises have chosen to become Terremark clients.
Switching the majority of South America, Central America and the Caribbean's layer-1, layer-2 and layer-3 traffic bound to more than 148 countries in the world, makes the NAP of the Americas the unrivaled gateway to the Americas."
--http://www.terremark.com/data-centers/americas/nap-americas.aspx
Chicago's Data Fortress
From: http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2009/01/06/chicagos-data-fortress-for-the-digital-economy/
Located at 350 East Cermak in Chicago. At 1.1 million square feet, this is one of the largest data centers in the world (see list). Built in 1912, it formerly held printing presses and has floors that can support 250 pounds per sq. ft. It has elaborate Gothic architecture in its hallways and it contains a library with a cathedral ceiling, chandeliers, and massive bookshelves.
From the industrial age to the information age.
Data Center in NYC
From: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/realestate/commercial/in-former-new-york-telephone-tower-sabey-corp-plans-data-centers.htm
The former New York Telephone Company building at 375 Pearl Street will be converted into a massive data center using more than one million square feet of space. “This is definitely the tallest data center, and maybe the largest high-rise data center in the world”.
Friday, June 8, 2012
Jim Sinclair calls it
"The end is not near, it is here and now".
"Mr Sinclair disagrees with George Soros , who accumulated gold aggressively in Q1 2012, who recently said that the euro has three months to sort itself out. He thinks the euro, in its current form, will be lucky to survive three weeks. Only massive debt write downs and debt forgiveness and a form of global debt jubilee can prevent a collapse of the financial system and a deep global depression."
--ZeroHedge
My comments: So, um, I'm not exactly disagreeing, but Sinclair has been wrong before. I think it is too early to call it. Let's give it a few more weeks.
"Mr Sinclair disagrees with George Soros , who accumulated gold aggressively in Q1 2012, who recently said that the euro has three months to sort itself out. He thinks the euro, in its current form, will be lucky to survive three weeks. Only massive debt write downs and debt forgiveness and a form of global debt jubilee can prevent a collapse of the financial system and a deep global depression."
--ZeroHedge
My comments: So, um, I'm not exactly disagreeing, but Sinclair has been wrong before. I think it is too early to call it. Let's give it a few more weeks.
Economic indicators still dropping
The WLI just dropped again to 121.6 from 122.4. This is still above the "magic" 120 level, but this is the 4th straight week it has dropped.
The Dow closed on June 7 at 12461, up from May 31, when it was 12393.
So it's still to early to call a recession, but it could happen in a few weeks.
See also: June 1 report
The Dow closed on June 7 at 12461, up from May 31, when it was 12393.
So it's still to early to call a recession, but it could happen in a few weeks.
See also: June 1 report
The Swiss declare war on the Euro
The Swiss are doing what is in their best interest, and they don't mean any harm to Europe, but nonetheless their actions are causing great damage.
Here is what is happening: European investors are nervous about holding euros and don't want to buy dollars, so they buy Swiss francs ("CHF"). This causes the value of the CHF to rise compared to the euro, which makes the Swiss economy uncompetitive (and also hurts people in Hungary and other countries who took out mortgages in francs). So the SNB reacts by printing more francs and buying euros with them. So far so good. However, the Swiss are worried about the value of the euro going down, so then they sell the euro and buy other currencies such as the dollar and yen. This causes the euro to drop even more and the Swiss have to print more francs. The Japanese also react by doing the same thing - printing more yen and buying dollars.
The result is that there is constant selling pressure on the euro and the Swiss don't even benefit, because now they either a) are left holding the bag on a depreciating currency or b) end up monetizing the US debt.
Oy, foiled again! All hail the almighty US dollar! Even the Swiss bow down before it.
================
Update:
"Switzerland is rapidly turning into a large hedge fund with a small country attached.
At issue is not the SNB's ability to fund - it can - or the near-term benefits, but rather what happens if things go terribly badly in the euro zone. The worse things get the heavier the flows of euros in Swiss coffers will be, and the more disastrous, and pointless, the losses if ever the currency union comes asunder. At that point, or sometime in the run-up, the SNB will blink, as everyone understands they will, and choose to crystallize their losses rather than add to them."
--http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/02/column-markets-saft-idUSL2E8J1FCA20120802
Here is what is happening: European investors are nervous about holding euros and don't want to buy dollars, so they buy Swiss francs ("CHF"). This causes the value of the CHF to rise compared to the euro, which makes the Swiss economy uncompetitive (and also hurts people in Hungary and other countries who took out mortgages in francs). So the SNB reacts by printing more francs and buying euros with them. So far so good. However, the Swiss are worried about the value of the euro going down, so then they sell the euro and buy other currencies such as the dollar and yen. This causes the euro to drop even more and the Swiss have to print more francs. The Japanese also react by doing the same thing - printing more yen and buying dollars.
The result is that there is constant selling pressure on the euro and the Swiss don't even benefit, because now they either a) are left holding the bag on a depreciating currency or b) end up monetizing the US debt.
Oy, foiled again! All hail the almighty US dollar! Even the Swiss bow down before it.
================
Update:
"Switzerland is rapidly turning into a large hedge fund with a small country attached.
At issue is not the SNB's ability to fund - it can - or the near-term benefits, but rather what happens if things go terribly badly in the euro zone. The worse things get the heavier the flows of euros in Swiss coffers will be, and the more disastrous, and pointless, the losses if ever the currency union comes asunder. At that point, or sometime in the run-up, the SNB will blink, as everyone understands they will, and choose to crystallize their losses rather than add to them."
--http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/02/column-markets-saft-idUSL2E8J1FCA20120802
Deficit slightly lower than projected
The good news for the day is that the expected budget is slightly lower, according to the latest budget review. It now looks to be about $1268 billion for FY 2012 instead of $1322 billion. And don't forget the negative in front.
Revenue will be slightly lower than projected. Defense spending for FY 2012 looks like it will be 650 instead of the 688 previously projected. And the catch-all "Other" category looks to be about 1242 instead of the 1280 previous. A big chunk of this is lower unemployment benefits.
Over all, nothing to get too excited about.
Revenue will be slightly lower than projected. Defense spending for FY 2012 looks like it will be 650 instead of the 688 previously projected. And the catch-all "Other" category looks to be about 1242 instead of the 1280 previous. A big chunk of this is lower unemployment benefits.
Over all, nothing to get too excited about.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Cannibalism has dire consequences for the victims
Yovonka and I are very concerned about the issue of cannibalism and
the number of cases that are being reported …," said Allred, reading
from a statement at a bizarre news conference at the Sofitel Miami.
"We are hopeful that ... Yovonka can help the public understand the dire consequences of cannibalism for its victims." "Jokes are being made about this issue on late-night television, but cannibalism is a serious issue and is very dangerous to the health and well-being of both the cannibal and the victim."
"In addition, Yovonka and I are very concerned about the issue of cannibalism and the number of cases that are being reported in other states and countries, such as Alabama, Canada, Maryland, Japan and Sweden," Allred said. "It is very important that the social taboo and stigma that have long been attached to this subject continues and that society condemns cannibalism, rather than trivializing it or glamorizing it."
--http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/fl-causeway-cannibal-girlfriend-20120606,0,2032813.story
Thank you Gloria Allred for enlightening us about this important issue.
"We are hopeful that ... Yovonka can help the public understand the dire consequences of cannibalism for its victims." "Jokes are being made about this issue on late-night television, but cannibalism is a serious issue and is very dangerous to the health and well-being of both the cannibal and the victim."
"In addition, Yovonka and I are very concerned about the issue of cannibalism and the number of cases that are being reported in other states and countries, such as Alabama, Canada, Maryland, Japan and Sweden," Allred said. "It is very important that the social taboo and stigma that have long been attached to this subject continues and that society condemns cannibalism, rather than trivializing it or glamorizing it."
--http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/fl-causeway-cannibal-girlfriend-20120606,0,2032813.story
Thank you Gloria Allred for enlightening us about this important issue.
Synchronized Global Showdown
See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xURH4e55co0
"We need a series of positive numbers to achieve escape velocity."
The whole world is slowing down - China, Brazil, Greece, Spain, in addition to the US. George Soros predicts that the eurozone will break up within 3 months. And this is before the fiscal cliff.
It looks like we need the Fed to step in and do more QE ASAP.
"We need a series of positive numbers to achieve escape velocity."
The whole world is slowing down - China, Brazil, Greece, Spain, in addition to the US. George Soros predicts that the eurozone will break up within 3 months. And this is before the fiscal cliff.
It looks like we need the Fed to step in and do more QE ASAP.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Copenhaver Castle
One of America's most unusual buildings - the 7,900 square foot Copenhaver Castle in Arizona - has sold for $1.45 million. The stunning property, which is built into the side of the spectacular
Camelback Mountain boasts secret passages, a dungeon, drawbridge and a
spa the size of a moat in the living room.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2154805/Yours-keeps-Arizonas-Copenhaver-Castle-sells-princely-sum-1-45million.html
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2154805/Yours-keeps-Arizonas-Copenhaver-Castle-sells-princely-sum-1-45million.html
CBO predicts doomsday in 2037
Under CBO’s extended alternative fiscal scenario, however,
revenues would not rise much above their average
share of GDP during the past 40 years, so the gap
between revenues and spending on government benefits
and services would become increasingly large. As debt
grew, so would net federal spending on interest, which
would rise from about 1½ percent of GDP today to
10 percent by 2037. All told, under the extended alternative
fiscal scenario, debt held by the public would balloon
over the next quarter century, to almost 200 percent of
GDP by 2037—a clearly unsustainable path for federal
borrowing.
A rising level of government debt would have another significant negative consequence: Combined with an unfavorable long-term budget outlook, it would increase the probability of a fiscal crisis for the United States.In such a crisis, investors become unwilling to finance all of a government’s borrowing needs unless they are compensated with very high interest rates; as a result, the interest rates on government debt rise suddenly and sharply relative to rates of return on other assets. That increase in interest rates would reduce the market value of outstanding government bonds, inflicting losses on investors who hold them. Such a decline could precipitate a broader financial crisis by causing losses for mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and other holders of federal debt—losses that might be large enough to cause some financial institutions to fail. Unfortunately, there is no way to predict with any confidence whether and when such a fiscal crisis might occur in the United States. In particular, there is no identifiable tipping point of debt relative to GDP that indicates a crisis is likely or imminent. All else being equal, however, the larger the debt, the greater the risk of a fiscal crisis.
--http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf
Bernanke thinks it will happen sooner than that: "By definition, the unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debt that the CBO outlines cannot actually happen, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a government with debt, relative to national income, that is rising without limit. One way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget must occur at some point. The question is whether these adjustments will take place through a careful and deliberative process that weighs priorities and gives people adequate time to adjust to changes in government programs or tax policies, or whether the needed fiscal adjustments will come as a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis."
--http://www.cnbc.com/id/41491193/
A rising level of government debt would have another significant negative consequence: Combined with an unfavorable long-term budget outlook, it would increase the probability of a fiscal crisis for the United States.In such a crisis, investors become unwilling to finance all of a government’s borrowing needs unless they are compensated with very high interest rates; as a result, the interest rates on government debt rise suddenly and sharply relative to rates of return on other assets. That increase in interest rates would reduce the market value of outstanding government bonds, inflicting losses on investors who hold them. Such a decline could precipitate a broader financial crisis by causing losses for mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and other holders of federal debt—losses that might be large enough to cause some financial institutions to fail. Unfortunately, there is no way to predict with any confidence whether and when such a fiscal crisis might occur in the United States. In particular, there is no identifiable tipping point of debt relative to GDP that indicates a crisis is likely or imminent. All else being equal, however, the larger the debt, the greater the risk of a fiscal crisis.
--http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf
Bernanke thinks it will happen sooner than that: "By definition, the unsustainable trajectories of deficits and debt that the CBO outlines cannot actually happen, because creditors would never be willing to lend to a government with debt, relative to national income, that is rising without limit. One way or the other, fiscal adjustments sufficient to stabilize the federal budget must occur at some point. The question is whether these adjustments will take place through a careful and deliberative process that weighs priorities and gives people adequate time to adjust to changes in government programs or tax policies, or whether the needed fiscal adjustments will come as a rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis."
--http://www.cnbc.com/id/41491193/
Estonia is booming
It’s the euro zone Jim, but not as we know it. Sixteen
months after it joined the struggling currency bloc, Estonia is
booming. The economy grew 7.6 percent last year, five times the
euro-zone average.
Estonia
is the only euro-zone country with a budget surplus. National debt is
just 6 percent of GDP, compared to 81 percent in virtuous Germany, or
165 percent in Greece. Shoppers
throng Nordic design shops and cool new restaurants in Tallinn, the
medieval capital, and cutting-edge tech firms complain they can’t find
people to fill their job vacancies. It all seems a long way from the gloom elsewhere in Europe.
Estonia’s
achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that it was
one of the countries hardest hit by the global financial crisis. In
2008-2009, its economy shrank by 18 percent. That’s a bigger contraction
than Greece has suffered over the past five years.
How did they bounce back? “I can answer in one
word: austerity. Austerity, austerity, austerity,” says Peeter Koppel,
investment strategist at the SEB Bank. After
three years of painful government belt-tightening, that’s not exactly
the message that Europeans further south want to hear. At
a recent conference of European and North American lawmakers in
Tallinn, Koppel was lambasted by French and Italian parliamentarians
when he suggested Europeans had to prepare for an “inevitable” decline
in living standards, wages and job security, in order for their
countries to escape from the debt crisis.While spending cuts have triggered strikes, social unrest and the toppling of governments in countries from Ireland to Greece,
Estonians have endured some of the harshest austerity measures with
barely a murmur. They even re-elected the politicians that imposed them.“It was very difficult, but we managed it,” explains Economy Minister Juhan Parts. “Everybody
had to give a little bit. Salaries paid out of the budget were all cut,
but we cut ministers’ salaries by 20 percent and the average civil
servants’ by 10 percent,” Parts told GlobalPost.“In
normal times cutting the salaries of civil servants, of policemen etc.
is extremely unpopular, but I think the people showed a good
understanding that if you do not have revenues, you have to cut costs,”
adds Parts, who served as prime minister from 2003-2004.
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Debt held by the public hits $11 trillion
On 5/31/2012, debt held by the public was $11.006 trillion. Only 9 months earlier, on 8/31/2011, it first topped $10 trillion. Only 11 months before that, on 9/30/2010, it hit $9 billion. Only 7 months before that, on 3/1/2010, it hit $8 billion. Only 9 months before that, on 5/28/09,it first hit $7 billion. Only 8 months before that, on 10/10/2008, it was at $6 billion.
Nine months from now is 3/1/2013, when the number should hit $12 trillion.
See also: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2011/09/debt-held-by-public-reaches-10-trillion.html
http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2010/10/us-debt-increased-65-in-just-2-years.html
See also: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2011/09/debt-held-by-public-reaches-10-trillion.html
http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2010/10/us-debt-increased-65-in-just-2-years.html
Dubai Sewage System
There isn't one. They rely on trucks to haul their poop away. But the system doesn't seem to be working very efficiently. See the line of sewage tanker trucks that lasts for miles.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Dubai is a failed city
At least 40% of the newly built skyscrapers will never be occupied. Its tallest, the Burj Khalifa, isn't even connected to a sewage system, and sewage has to be hauled off in trucks. The man-made islands are falling into the sea. And the new amusement parks will never be finished.
"Dubai is a cautionary tale about what money can’t buy: a culture of its own."
--http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2011/04/dubai-201104
The city has 3 classes of people. The Emiratis are very wealthy but this isn't their city. They are a minority there, and don't know how to do anything. Then there are the expats, who don't put down roots and are just there for the money. Finally, the slaves, contract laborers from Bangladesh or Pakistan or the Philippines, who are paid little and have no rights.
The harsh climate ages buildings rapidly. "The average lifespan of a building in the UAE is 15 to 30 years, due to the harsh climate and humidity. As many as 30 per cent of all buildings in the emirate were either too old or decaying rapidly." Empty buildings are a magnet for crime, and hundreds of them are being demolished.
"Dubai is a cautionary tale about what money can’t buy: a culture of its own."
--http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2011/04/dubai-201104
The city has 3 classes of people. The Emiratis are very wealthy but this isn't their city. They are a minority there, and don't know how to do anything. Then there are the expats, who don't put down roots and are just there for the money. Finally, the slaves, contract laborers from Bangladesh or Pakistan or the Philippines, who are paid little and have no rights.
The harsh climate ages buildings rapidly. "The average lifespan of a building in the UAE is 15 to 30 years, due to the harsh climate and humidity. As many as 30 per cent of all buildings in the emirate were either too old or decaying rapidly." Empty buildings are a magnet for crime, and hundreds of them are being demolished.
Global Depression in 2013
Here is another scenario by adviser Raoul Pal: That the whole world will default in 2013 and that the US is the only one left standing, with the possible exception of Germany. All of Europe (except possibly Germany) will default, as will Japan and the UK. Stock markets everywhere will collapse and all that will be left is gold and the almighty US Dollar.
Recession indicators getting worse
While it is still to early to call a recession, the Weekly Leading Index dropped again for the third straight week to 122.4. It is still above the 120 danger mark.
The Dow Jones lost 136 for the week between 5/24 and 6/1.
See also: May 25th report
The Dow Jones lost 136 for the week between 5/24 and 6/1.
See also: May 25th report
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