Friday, February 8, 2013

M4 down 0.8% in January

As of 1/31/2013:
M2 = 10413.2
Public debt = 11560.2
Fed held = -1710.0
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Total as of (1/31/2013):  20263.4

The number for December was 20430.1, so this is a decrease of 166.7, or 0.8%.  Fred now says that M2 for December was 10,475.7, but I think they revised the numbers.

What does this mean?  M2 dropped and public debt dropped, despite the fact that the Fed was continuing to quantitatively ease. It probably means nothing, it is just an anomaly.  But I find this strange. 

When was the last time it happened?  I'm not going to go back and calculate M4 for every month for years, but the last times M2 dropped were May 2012, May 2011,  January 2011, July 2010, May 2010, January 2010, August 2009, etc.  So its not that uncommon.

But I think it is evidence of continued deleveraging. Almost all money is debt-based, so maybe companies paid down their debt a little.  And because of the debt ceiling standoff in Washington, the national debt didn't rise in January. 

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