Saturday, February 1, 2014

Hyperinflation in Argentina

When the temperature insisted on staying at around 40C and humidity levels rose to a drenching 90%, Fernández rushed to buy an air-conditioning unit she had seen on sale a week before.   "When I went to buy it, the price had gone up 25% since when I checked prices last week," she complained outside the Alto Palermo shopping mall. "The same thing just happened to me at the pharmacy where I went to buy the medicine my husband takes: the price was up 20%." http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/01/argentina-peso-crisis-shakes-queen-cristina

I think inflation of over 3%/month qualifies as hyperinflation.  At this rate, prices would double in less than 2 years.


The black market rate is at 13 pesos to the dollar.  So prices will keep going up.  This will cause a vicious spiral as workers will demand higher salaries which will cause prices on everything to go even higher. "Moody's expects a devaluation of the Argentine peso 50% in 2014."

Argentina previously experienced hyperinflation from May 1989 to March 1990 when prices rose 12,000% in one year.

The cause?  Generous social spending, causing large deficits, which erode the central bank's hard currency (petrodollar) reserves.  They need dollars to buy foreign oil.  Printing more pesos won't give them more dollars.

Argentina has a current account deficit, so they are sending more money (measured in dollars) out of the country then they are receiving.  Unless this situation changes, the peso will continue to drop.

The Argentina Central Bank is trying to stop all imports.  Good luck with that, they will still need foreign oil. 

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