It could have been repaired for $23 million after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Instead, it sits abandoned, decaying, maybe haunted, for the day it will either be refurbished or demolished.
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
New Orleans Charity Hospital
Read: http://www.thenation.com/article/why-was-new-orleanss-charity-hospital-allowed-die/
It could have been repaired for $23 million after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Instead, it sits abandoned, decaying, maybe haunted, for the day it will either be refurbished or demolished.
It could have been repaired for $23 million after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Instead, it sits abandoned, decaying, maybe haunted, for the day it will either be refurbished or demolished.
Friday, December 25, 2015
Doom and Gloom
See https://larouchepac.com/20151223/emergency-christmas-eve-message-january-1st-doomsday-only-fdr-action-can-save-you
A financial crash will occur on January 1 unless Obama resigns and Lyndon Larouche takes over!!!
I'm calling B.S. Merry Christmas!
Friday, December 18, 2015
Beautiful font
Wow, I think this is really attractive. The font is "OFL Sorts Mill Goudy TT". Available from: https://www.google.com/fonts/specimen/Sorts+Mill+Goudy
Here is another link - https://www.theleagueofmoveabletype.com/sorts-mill-goudy
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
The debt keeps rising
So I expressed my frustration with the Treasury for blowing up the national credit card, and guess what? They did it twice more. So let's keep track, updated daily, starting with Nov. 11 (which was a holiday, so it probably really means the previous day).
11/11/2015 $18,649 bn
11/12/2015 $18,654 bn
11/15/2015 $18,660 bn
11/16/2015 $18,670 bn
I'm going to keep reporting on it until it stops rising for 2 days in a row. That shouldn't take very long, you would think. This is ridiculous.
11/11/2015 $18,649 bn
11/12/2015 $18,654 bn
11/15/2015 $18,660 bn
11/16/2015 $18,670 bn
I'm going to keep reporting on it until it stops rising for 2 days in a row. That shouldn't take very long, you would think. This is ridiculous.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The Debt is back
Ok, we understand that the debt had been frozen for about 9 months and Jack Lew was playing games with trust funds and flush funds to keep it under the limit. But still, a $500 billion increase in less than two weeks? Supposedly, the deficit is "only" about $450 billion per year. So just stop it with the national credit card for a while, ok? Since October 27, the debt has gone up every single day except for one. Give us a break for a couple of months please.
Saturday, November 14, 2015
Shadow Rate
I have never heard of the shadow rate before today. Thank you Peter Schiff for introducing it to me. See here. The shadow rate can be negative, unlike the official rate. How is it calculated?
See the working paper, very interesting. I think once this goes above zero that the actual rate should follow.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Panic over possible debt ceiling accident
At least some people think there is a small chance that they won't get paid right away for their expiring T-bills and are selling them at a discount.
When was the last time the 1-month notes were that high? February 7, 2014. What happened then? A similar debate over raising the national debt limit. Note that the debt limit was $17,226 billion then, and it is $18,152 billion now. And soon it will jump a few hundred billion more as soon as Congress caves and approves a new ceiling.
See also: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/19/lew-i-worry-there-could-be-a-debt-limit-accident-that-could-be-terrible.html
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said Monday he worries that waiting until the last minute to raise the nation's borrowing authority could result in an accident "that would be terrible."
Last week, Lew said the U.S. debt ceiling will be exhausted Nov. 3, two days before previously estimated. In a letter to congressional leaders, he added that a remaining cash balance of less than $30 billion would swiftly deplete.
"Our best estimate is November 3rd is when we'll exhaust what we call extraordinary measures; those are things we can do to manage things. I will run out of things that I can manage on November 3rd," Lew told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
==================================
Only 2 weeks until the system collapses! Unless the evil Republicans can be convinced to raise the debt ceiling. Are there negotiations going on? Nope, the president won't negotiate.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
August 9, 2007 - the day the system broke
I started this blog in June 2010 because of a feeling that there was something very wrong in the financial world. Most of my fears then seem to have been overblown, and I don't post very much anymore. I would like to say definitely that everything is ok. But they aren't, which is evidenced by the fact that the Fed has kept its rate at 0% for almost 7 years (it was lowered on Dec. 16, 2008).
It is interesting to note that August 9, 2007 was the day that things started to go wrong.
See http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/dec/01/credit-crunch-pinpointed-august-2007
Everything that has occurred in the years since can be traced to those days in August 2007 when money markets broke down for the first time. Even the current, though measured, move away from the US dollar in global trade is as much a downstream event of then as anything else. Careful examination reveals that it was the eurodollar system, linked to trade and financialism, that has wrought such persisting havoc and malaise.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/10/still-no-going-back-eighth-anniversary/ In very general terms, central banks could do no wrong prior, and then “suddenly” have been able to do nothing right since. The titanic shift in August 2007 cannot be overstated. The Fed (and all its central bank network) continued to do as it had done before, starting in September 2007 with its first very orthodox, quite textbook 50 bps cut in the federal funds rate. From then on, no matter what it did, the financial system remained unaffected and so with it the economy.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/aug/07/credit-crunch-boom-bust-timeline
Larry Elliott, economics editor, said: "As far as the financial markets are concerned, August 9 2007 has all the resonance of August 4 1914. It marks the cut-off point between 'an Edwardian summer' of prosperity and tranquillity and the trench warfare of the credit crunch – the failed banks, the petrified markets, the property markets blown to pieces by a shortage of credit"
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mind-the-eurodollar-markets-thats-where-the-exit-ramps-are-closing/
The rift in the global eurodollar exchange system that opened in 2007 is not closing, rather it remains in a state of paradigm shift that can only strain further a liquidity system that has actually lost robustness from even its weakened state just prior to near-collapse.
It is interesting to note that August 9, 2007 was the day that things started to go wrong.
See http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/dec/01/credit-crunch-pinpointed-august-2007
The former boss of Northern Rock, Adam Applegarth, pinpointed the start of the first credit crunch as 9 August 2007. It was the "day the world changed," he said. The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve injected $90bn (£45bn) into jittery financial markets that day, but it was still not enough to stop banks being frozen out of the markets they relied on for funding.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2014/08/11/the-anniversary-no-going-back/Everything that has occurred in the years since can be traced to those days in August 2007 when money markets broke down for the first time. Even the current, though measured, move away from the US dollar in global trade is as much a downstream event of then as anything else. Careful examination reveals that it was the eurodollar system, linked to trade and financialism, that has wrought such persisting havoc and malaise.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/10/still-no-going-back-eighth-anniversary/ In very general terms, central banks could do no wrong prior, and then “suddenly” have been able to do nothing right since. The titanic shift in August 2007 cannot be overstated. The Fed (and all its central bank network) continued to do as it had done before, starting in September 2007 with its first very orthodox, quite textbook 50 bps cut in the federal funds rate. From then on, no matter what it did, the financial system remained unaffected and so with it the economy.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/aug/07/credit-crunch-boom-bust-timeline
Larry Elliott, economics editor, said: "As far as the financial markets are concerned, August 9 2007 has all the resonance of August 4 1914. It marks the cut-off point between 'an Edwardian summer' of prosperity and tranquillity and the trench warfare of the credit crunch – the failed banks, the petrified markets, the property markets blown to pieces by a shortage of credit"
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/mind-the-eurodollar-markets-thats-where-the-exit-ramps-are-closing/
The rift in the global eurodollar exchange system that opened in 2007 is not closing, rather it remains in a state of paradigm shift that can only strain further a liquidity system that has actually lost robustness from even its weakened state just prior to near-collapse.
Saturday, October 10, 2015
The weaponization of the Eurodollar
I'm in way over my head on this, but lower oil prices and the collapsing world economy are causing a Eurodollar liquidity crisis.
"Investors may have underestimated the degree to which a rising dollar transmits tighter monetary policy across an already misfiring global economy, especially when it is carrying US$10 trillion (+70% since 2008) in offshore Eurodollar debt. From a Chinese (especially) and EM standpoint in particular, it is becoming increasingly clear that the dollar has been “weaponised.” http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/09/24/2140580/all-about-the-eurodollars-redux/
A eurodollar can be defined simply as a dollar that is outside the borders of the United States. However, I don't think it is that simple. Obviously, physical cash can circulate outside the borders. But for electronic dollars, I think there has to be some sort of connection to the US, like an account at a big bank, e.g. JP Morgan, or a correspondent relationship with one of the big banks.
However, even without the connection, two parties could agree on a transaction denominated in dollars, and then settle it based on the prevailing exchange rates. This is no problem if it settles quickly. However, if there is a long-term loan or time deposit, the problem arises.
If the dollar strengthens in value (which happens because for some reason everyone trusts it), then paying back the loan or deposit becomes much more costly. This causes spiraling deflation, which is why oil prices and gold prices keep going down. Of course the countries would prefer to sell oil and gold at higher prices, but they have loan payments due and have to liquidate assets in order to meet their obligation.
This isn't a problem in the US so we don't see the effects, but there is a $10 trillion elephant sitting on the world economy. These are dollars not created by the Fed, but they still exist. (Other entities besides the Fed can create money, I have written previously about that, but I haven't considered international banks creating dollars). This could cause a global economic collapse. And maybe the Fed would step in as a lender of last resort, and in exchange for its help, effectively demand oversight over banks that it is lending to.
The Fed does provide "swap lines" to other central banks like the ECB and BOJ, but it doesn't to China. So this could be considered economic warfare against China, which must liquidate its (mostly treasury bond) assets. This is a topic to research more.
"Investors may have underestimated the degree to which a rising dollar transmits tighter monetary policy across an already misfiring global economy, especially when it is carrying US$10 trillion (+70% since 2008) in offshore Eurodollar debt. From a Chinese (especially) and EM standpoint in particular, it is becoming increasingly clear that the dollar has been “weaponised.” http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/09/24/2140580/all-about-the-eurodollars-redux/
A eurodollar can be defined simply as a dollar that is outside the borders of the United States. However, I don't think it is that simple. Obviously, physical cash can circulate outside the borders. But for electronic dollars, I think there has to be some sort of connection to the US, like an account at a big bank, e.g. JP Morgan, or a correspondent relationship with one of the big banks.
However, even without the connection, two parties could agree on a transaction denominated in dollars, and then settle it based on the prevailing exchange rates. This is no problem if it settles quickly. However, if there is a long-term loan or time deposit, the problem arises.
If the dollar strengthens in value (which happens because for some reason everyone trusts it), then paying back the loan or deposit becomes much more costly. This causes spiraling deflation, which is why oil prices and gold prices keep going down. Of course the countries would prefer to sell oil and gold at higher prices, but they have loan payments due and have to liquidate assets in order to meet their obligation.
This isn't a problem in the US so we don't see the effects, but there is a $10 trillion elephant sitting on the world economy. These are dollars not created by the Fed, but they still exist. (Other entities besides the Fed can create money, I have written previously about that, but I haven't considered international banks creating dollars). This could cause a global economic collapse. And maybe the Fed would step in as a lender of last resort, and in exchange for its help, effectively demand oversight over banks that it is lending to.
The Fed does provide "swap lines" to other central banks like the ECB and BOJ, but it doesn't to China. So this could be considered economic warfare against China, which must liquidate its (mostly treasury bond) assets. This is a topic to research more.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Friday, September 11, 2015
Shemitah Fail
Today is the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center twin towers. And it is also the last business day of the Jewish year. Technically, Sunday is Elul 29 and today is Elul 27, but this is the last business day before that. Monday, Sept. 14 is Tishri 1, the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashana).
Every seven years on Elul 29, the stock market crashes. So says Messianic Jewish Rabbi Johnathan Cahn. But not this year, thank God.
So the disaster that was supposed to happen today, didn't. This is another failed prediction, like 12/21/12, which was a dud. Johnathan Cahn is a fraud.
Quote:
"On the stock market, Cahn goes on to explain, “I want people to be aware and be warned . . . . In the last 40 years . . . you have these collapses in the markets, long term collapses. The dates are 1973, 1980, 1987, 2000 and 2007. Every single one of them is on the seven year cycle. Not only that, every single one of them happens at the time of the Shemitah. It’s not just a 7 year cycle, but on the exact appointed time. This has happened every single time, and the last two have been so exact . . . what you have is the greatest stock market point crash, September 17, caused by 9/11. That day that it crashed is “Elul 29,” the day that is appointed in the Bible of an exact date you have to wipe out financial accounts and becomes a sign of warning of a nation under judgment. On the exact day, September 17, 2001, you have “Elul 29” that happens not just once a year, Elul 29 happens every 7 years. Then, that record stays for the next 7 years until you get to the great crash of the great recession. The greatest crash in history, September 29, 2008, they ring the bell, and the bell refuses to ring. They take that as a sign, and on that day comes the greatest crash in American history. Not only on that day, but it was the wipe-out day of the Shemitah that happens only once every 7 years. So, the two greatest crashes happened exactly 7 Biblical years apart down to the day, down to the hour, and down to the minute."
http://usawatchdog.com/great-shaking-and-collapse-is-coming-jonathan-cahn/
He was predicting that a massive stock market crash would occur TODAY. And it didn't. I'm not rooting for it, but I like to see patterns if they exist. I know some people were saying that Shemitah came early this year, on August 25. But he is talking about "the exact appointed time", "an exact date", "down to the day".
Epic Fail!
Every seven years on Elul 29, the stock market crashes. So says Messianic Jewish Rabbi Johnathan Cahn. But not this year, thank God.
So the disaster that was supposed to happen today, didn't. This is another failed prediction, like 12/21/12, which was a dud. Johnathan Cahn is a fraud.
Quote:
"On the stock market, Cahn goes on to explain, “I want people to be aware and be warned . . . . In the last 40 years . . . you have these collapses in the markets, long term collapses. The dates are 1973, 1980, 1987, 2000 and 2007. Every single one of them is on the seven year cycle. Not only that, every single one of them happens at the time of the Shemitah. It’s not just a 7 year cycle, but on the exact appointed time. This has happened every single time, and the last two have been so exact . . . what you have is the greatest stock market point crash, September 17, caused by 9/11. That day that it crashed is “Elul 29,” the day that is appointed in the Bible of an exact date you have to wipe out financial accounts and becomes a sign of warning of a nation under judgment. On the exact day, September 17, 2001, you have “Elul 29” that happens not just once a year, Elul 29 happens every 7 years. Then, that record stays for the next 7 years until you get to the great crash of the great recession. The greatest crash in history, September 29, 2008, they ring the bell, and the bell refuses to ring. They take that as a sign, and on that day comes the greatest crash in American history. Not only on that day, but it was the wipe-out day of the Shemitah that happens only once every 7 years. So, the two greatest crashes happened exactly 7 Biblical years apart down to the day, down to the hour, and down to the minute."
http://usawatchdog.com/great-shaking-and-collapse-is-coming-jonathan-cahn/
He was predicting that a massive stock market crash would occur TODAY. And it didn't. I'm not rooting for it, but I like to see patterns if they exist. I know some people were saying that Shemitah came early this year, on August 25. But he is talking about "the exact appointed time", "an exact date", "down to the day".
Epic Fail!
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Goldin 117 Tower tops out
Goldin Finance 117 Tower, in Tianjin, China, tops out at 1,957 feet (596 m). The article says that it is the 2nd tallest structure in the world, but that isn't correct - I think it is the 5th.
They should have made it just a little taller and it would be over 600m and taller than the Mecca Clock Tower.
The list of the tallest buildings in the world is now:
See also: Shanghai Tower tops out
They should have made it just a little taller and it would be over 600m and taller than the Mecca Clock Tower.
The list of the tallest buildings in the world is now:
- Burj Khalifa, Dubai, 828m (2010)
- Shanghai Tower, 632m (2014).
- Abraj Al Bait, Mekka (Mecca Royal Hotel Clock Tower), 601m (2011)
- Ping An Finance Center, Shenzhen, 599m (2016)
- Goldin Finance 117 Tower, Tianjin, 596m (2015)
- One World Trade Center, New York, 541m (2013)
- CTF Finance Center, Guangzhou, 530m (2016)
- Taipei 101, Taipei, 509m (2004)
- Shanghai World Financial Center, 492m (2008)
- International Commerce Center, Hongkong, 484m (2010)
- Petronas Towers, Kuala Lumpur, 452m (1998)
- Greenland Financial Center (aka Zifeng Tower), Nanjing, 450m (2010)
See also: Shanghai Tower tops out
Monday, September 7, 2015
Monday, August 31, 2015
SLS Las Vegas deathwatch
SLS Las Vegas net loss reaches $48.6 million in second quarter
"In the SEC quarterly filing, Stockbridge/SBE said total revenue between April and June was $36.9 million". So expenses were $85.5 million for the 2nd quarter.
"Stockbridge said in the SEC filing it intends to provide SLS Las Vegas with "sufficient funds" through Dec. 31 to meet the property's obligations." What if it burns through another $100 million through the end of the year?
Expect a shutdown in January.
=============
UPDATE:
The Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Las Vegas is also hemorrhaging cash.
he company that owns the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Las Vegas, Bref HR, has struggled for years, incurring losses for $103 million, $105.5 million and about $116 million for 2014, 2013 and 2015, respectively. There is substantial doubt about Bref's ability to continue as a going concern, or without the threat of liquidation, because of debt and losses says the company's accountant, Deloitte & Touche LLP, in an April 14 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://www.themiddlemarket.com/news/restructurings/turnaround-tuesday-losses-mount-for-hard-rock-las-vegas-hotel-255697-1.html
"In the SEC quarterly filing, Stockbridge/SBE said total revenue between April and June was $36.9 million". So expenses were $85.5 million for the 2nd quarter.
"Stockbridge said in the SEC filing it intends to provide SLS Las Vegas with "sufficient funds" through Dec. 31 to meet the property's obligations." What if it burns through another $100 million through the end of the year?
Expect a shutdown in January.
=============
UPDATE:
The Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Las Vegas is also hemorrhaging cash.
he company that owns the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Las Vegas, Bref HR, has struggled for years, incurring losses for $103 million, $105.5 million and about $116 million for 2014, 2013 and 2015, respectively. There is substantial doubt about Bref's ability to continue as a going concern, or without the threat of liquidation, because of debt and losses says the company's accountant, Deloitte & Touche LLP, in an April 14 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
http://www.themiddlemarket.com/news/restructurings/turnaround-tuesday-losses-mount-for-hard-rock-las-vegas-hotel-255697-1.html
Friday, August 28, 2015
Planned ghost town to be built in New Mexico
A new city is being built in the middle of the desert at a whopping price tag of $1.4 billion and while it’s a very real place, it’s unlike anything the world has ever seen.
Despite featuring all the infrastructure you’d expect to find in a normal city, including skyscrapers, 35,000 homes, a shopping centre, church, service station and an airport, nobody will be allowed to live here.
The 38-square-kilometre area will also encompass farms, an industrial area, a rural road system and a highway.
It will be under constant surveillance and connected by underground tunnels, yet there will be no colourful details such as artwork or billboards.
Welcome to the Center for Innovation, Testing and Evaluation (CITE), a planned ghost town for New Mexico, America.
Essentially, it’s a huge, fully functional test city, the first of its kind in the world.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Another day, another drop
Wow. Today (Aug 25) the Dow dropped another 204.91 to close at 15,666.44.
That is 6 days down in a row. I wonder when was the last time that happened.
That is 6 days down in a row. I wonder when was the last time that happened.
Monday, August 24, 2015
DJIA trend
Everyone is talking about the Dow's roller coaster ride today. It last closed at 16,459.75, and upon open, almost immediately dropped 1,089.42 to 15,370.33 and then over the next several hours, regained almost all of that to reach 16,344.50 at 1:10pm (a rise of 974.17), which if it had closed at that point, would have resulted in a loss of only 115.25 for the day. But then it plummeted again, closing at 15,871,35, a loss of 588.40 for the day.
I'm more concerned about the trend. Check this out:
Aug 17, 2015 17,545.18
Aug 18, 2015 17,511.34
Aug 19, 2015 17,348.73
Aug 20, 2015 16,990.69
Aug 21, 2015 16,459.75
Aug 24, 2015 15,871.35
It dropped 5 days in a row, and over those 5 days dropped 1673.83 or 9.5%. I think it will rise back into the 16,000 range for now. But I think it has farther to drop over the next few months.
I'm more concerned about the trend. Check this out:
Aug 17, 2015 17,545.18
Aug 18, 2015 17,511.34
Aug 19, 2015 17,348.73
Aug 20, 2015 16,990.69
Aug 21, 2015 16,459.75
Aug 24, 2015 15,871.35
It dropped 5 days in a row, and over those 5 days dropped 1673.83 or 9.5%. I think it will rise back into the 16,000 range for now. But I think it has farther to drop over the next few months.
Pentagon Accounting Fail
See http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/18/us-usa-pentagon-waste-specialreport-idUSBRE9AH0LQ20131118
At the DFAS offices that handle accounting for the Army, Navy, Air Force and other defense agencies, fudging the accounts with false entries is standard operating procedure, Reuters has found. And plugging isn't confined to DFAS (pronounced DEE-fass). Former military service officials say record-keeping at the operational level throughout the services is rife with made-up numbers to cover lost or missing information.
See also: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-dod-cant-balance-its-book-2013-2
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/02/11/Why-the-Defense-Department-Cant-Balance-Its-Books
http://cjonline.com/blog-post/lucinda/2015-08-20/united-states-pentagon-accounting-system-joke
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/03/the-pentagon-is-still-terrible-at-accounting-for-taxpayer-dollars-marine-corps-800-million-gao/
http://www.globalresearch.ca/report-reveals-8-5-trillion-missing-from-pentagon-budget-2/5453618
At the DFAS offices that handle accounting for the Army, Navy, Air Force and other defense agencies, fudging the accounts with false entries is standard operating procedure, Reuters has found. And plugging isn't confined to DFAS (pronounced DEE-fass). Former military service officials say record-keeping at the operational level throughout the services is rife with made-up numbers to cover lost or missing information.
See also: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-dod-cant-balance-its-book-2013-2
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2013/02/11/Why-the-Defense-Department-Cant-Balance-Its-Books
http://cjonline.com/blog-post/lucinda/2015-08-20/united-states-pentagon-accounting-system-joke
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/03/the-pentagon-is-still-terrible-at-accounting-for-taxpayer-dollars-marine-corps-800-million-gao/
http://www.globalresearch.ca/report-reveals-8-5-trillion-missing-from-pentagon-budget-2/5453618
Friday, August 21, 2015
Must have moar debt!
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/opinion/paul-krugman-debt-is-good-for-the-economy.html
The Village Idiot speaks:
there’s a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments aren’t deep enough in debt. we need more, not less, government debt.
The Village Idiot speaks:
there’s a reasonable argument to be made that part of what ails the world economy right now is that governments aren’t deep enough in debt. we need more, not less, government debt.
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
The US doesn't have operational control of southern Arizona
FLORENCE, Arizona — “Nobody does,” Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu told Breitbart News when asked who has operational control of this region of the United States of America.
Babeu was on a helicopter tour of Mexican drug cartel scout locations in caves in the side of mountains throughout the desert about 70 miles inside the U.S. border. Essentially, that means U.S. sovereignty is gone for hundreds, perhaps thousands, of square miles throughout the American southwest.
--http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/19/exclusive-az-sheriff-takes-dr-ben-carson-on-helicopter-tour-of-cartel-sites/
--http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/19/exclusive-az-sheriff-takes-dr-ben-carson-on-helicopter-tour-of-cartel-sites/
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
October 7
Martin (Weiss): There’s a finite date associated with your forecast. Please explain.
Larry (Edelson): It’s October 7, 2015, when we enter a new phase of the global economy, a phase when everything starts to hit the fan at once. It doesn’t necessarily mean that a precipitous event will occur on that day. There may be, there may not be. But it does mark a line in the sand between two eras:
* The current era when government debts continue to grow with reckless abandon, when nobody really gives a hoot and …
* A new era, when we’re all going to have to pay a big price for that government debt.
It’s a giant shift in the entire economic landscape, a time when governments must finally meet a great day of reckoning. I call it the “Great Convergence.”
Martin: When’s the last time we’ve seen a convergence point of this magnitude?
Larry: In 1929.
Friday, August 14, 2015
Biggest Primes
This is the list of all prime numbers with more than 3 million digits:
From https://primes.utm.edu/primes/lists/all.txt
Update: The last 2 numbers are called Wagstaff primes, and it is extremely difficult to prove that they are actually prime. That is why the Mersenne primes are so attractive, because there is a test for primality.
The number that starts with 19249 is part of the Seventeen or Bust projects, which is an attempt to prove (or disprove) the Sierpinski problem, which I don't understand.
The numbers that start with 3*2 are part of the 321 Prime Search project on PrimeGrid, which keeps finding new megaprimes.
What is the benefit of finding such large numbers? Really none at all. Except to expand the horizons of what is thought possible.
From https://primes.utm.edu/primes/lists/all.txt
1 2^57885161-1 17425170 G13 2013 Mersenne 48??
2 2^43112609-1 12978189 G10 2008 Mersenne 47??
3 2^42643801-1 12837064 G12 2009 Mersenne 46??
4 2^37156667-1 11185272 G11 2008 Mersenne 45?
5 2^32582657-1 9808358 G9 2006 Mersenne 44
6 2^30402457-1 9152052 G9 2005 Mersenne 43
7 2^25964951-1 7816230 G8 2005 Mersenne 42
8 2^24036583-1 7235733 G7 2004 Mersenne 41
9 2^20996011-1 6320430 G6 2003 Mersenne 40
10 2^13466917-1 4053946 G5 2001 Mersenne 39
11 19249*2^13018586+1 3918990 SB10 2007
12c 3*2^11895718-1 3580969 L4159 2015
13f 3*2^11731850-1 3531640 L4103 2015
14 3*2^11484018-1 3457035 L3993 2014
15 3*2^10829346+1 3259959 L3770 2014
From: http://www.primenumbers.net/prptop/prptop.php
1 (2^13372531+1)/3 4025533 Ryan Propper 09/2013
2 (2^13347311+1)/3 4017941 Ryan Propper 09/2013
I don't know why the last two aren't in the main prime numbers database.
Update: The last 2 numbers are called Wagstaff primes, and it is extremely difficult to prove that they are actually prime. That is why the Mersenne primes are so attractive, because there is a test for primality.
The number that starts with 19249 is part of the Seventeen or Bust projects, which is an attempt to prove (or disprove) the Sierpinski problem, which I don't understand.
The numbers that start with 3*2 are part of the 321 Prime Search project on PrimeGrid, which keeps finding new megaprimes.
What is the benefit of finding such large numbers? Really none at all. Except to expand the horizons of what is thought possible.
New Formula for Primes
4*(10^500+317)^2-2*(10^500+317)+41, number of digits: 1001, time: 180988, ends in 401363.
4*(10^600+233)^2-2*(10^600+233)+41, number of digits: 1201, time: 252649, ends in 216731
And a 2000-digit number:
4*(10^1000+14)^2+2*(10^1000+14)+41, number of digits: 2001, time: 71016, ends in 853.
New 2500 digit number:
4*(10^1250+232)^2-2*(10^1250+232)+41, number of digits: 2501, time: 1711446 (about 29 minutes), ends in 214873.
4*(10^600+233)^2-2*(10^600+233)+41, number of digits: 1201, time: 252649, ends in 216731
And a 2000-digit number:
4*(10^1000+14)^2+2*(10^1000+14)+41, number of digits: 2001, time: 71016, ends in 853.
New 2500 digit number:
4*(10^1250+232)^2-2*(10^1250+232)+41, number of digits: 2501, time: 1711446 (about 29 minutes), ends in 214873.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
2000 digit prime number
210*(10^1997+31)+13, number of digits: 2000, time: 580956 (about 10 minutes). It ends in 6523
Update: I tried to calculate a 3000 digit number but my machine froze up. So that is about the limit of what I can do.
Update: I tried to calculate a 3000 digit number but my machine froze up. So that is about the limit of what I can do.
Primes
This is a diversion, but I created a simple program using BigInteger in Java to create prime numbers.
These are some prime numbers I calculated. They have NOT been verified. It is much,much more difficult to verify than to prove one. My goal is to find a really big one, 20,000 digits or more and post it publicly. Time is in milliseconds.
Possible primes:
210*(10^397+16)-17, number of digits: 400, time: 2572. Verified by WolframAlpha.
210*(10^447+15)-19, number of digits: 450, time: 3831
210*(10^497+18)-19, number of digits: 500, time: 5893
210*(10^547+37)+13, number of digits: 550, time: 15780
210*(10^597+17)-17, number of digits: 600, time: 8751
210*(10^647+4)-17, number of digits: 650, time: 2844
210*(10^697+8)-19, number of digits: 700, time: 6498
210*(10^797+89)+13,number of digits: 800, time: 89458
210*(10^897+6)-17,number of digits: 900, time: 9726
210*(10^997+72)-13,number of digits: 1000, time: 165535. This is a titanic prime! Verified by WolframAlpha.
210*(10^1097+146)+13, number of digits: 1100, time: 459584
210*(10^1197+162)+11, number of digits: 1200, time: 670547 This is a number starting with 21, about 1200 zeroes and ending in 34031.
210*(10^1247+96)+17, number of digits: 1250, time: 446148. This number ends in 20177.
210*(10^1297+22)-17,number of digits: 1300, time: 120943. It ends in 4603.
210*(10^1397+179)+17, number of digits: 1400, time: 1116773. It ends in 37607.
And that's about all I have time for. Interesting. The first titanic prime (Mersenne prime 19) wasn't discovered until 1961.
These are some prime numbers I calculated. They have NOT been verified. It is much,much more difficult to verify than to prove one. My goal is to find a really big one, 20,000 digits or more and post it publicly. Time is in milliseconds.
Possible primes:
210*(10^397+16)-17, number of digits: 400, time: 2572. Verified by WolframAlpha.
210*(10^447+15)-19, number of digits: 450, time: 3831
210*(10^497+18)-19, number of digits: 500, time: 5893
210*(10^547+37)+13, number of digits: 550, time: 15780
210*(10^597+17)-17, number of digits: 600, time: 8751
210*(10^647+4)-17, number of digits: 650, time: 2844
210*(10^697+8)-19, number of digits: 700, time: 6498
210*(10^797+89)+13,number of digits: 800, time: 89458
210*(10^897+6)-17,number of digits: 900, time: 9726
210*(10^997+72)-13,number of digits: 1000, time: 165535. This is a titanic prime! Verified by WolframAlpha.
210*(10^1097+146)+13, number of digits: 1100, time: 459584
210*(10^1197+162)+11, number of digits: 1200, time: 670547 This is a number starting with 21, about 1200 zeroes and ending in 34031.
210*(10^1247+96)+17, number of digits: 1250, time: 446148. This number ends in 20177.
210*(10^1297+22)-17,number of digits: 1300, time: 120943. It ends in 4603.
210*(10^1397+179)+17, number of digits: 1400, time: 1116773. It ends in 37607.
And that's about all I have time for. Interesting. The first titanic prime (Mersenne prime 19) wasn't discovered until 1961.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
MM61
Double Mersenne primes have the format: 2^(2^prime(n) - 1) - 1. MM61 means 2^(2^61-1)-1 or 22305843009213693951 - 1. This number has approximately 694127911065419641 digits. It is unknown whether this number is prime or composite.
This is the smallest double Mersenne prime for which it is unknown whether it is composite or prime. Yet people are obsessed with proving that it is prime. Or not.
"A number of people (including the author of this page) have tried finding divisors of MM61, MM89, MM107, MM127, MM521, MM607 and others, but so far without success"
--http://sites.google.com/site/anthonydforbes/mm61.htm
It has been proven that MM61 is not divisible by any number up to 1167025860000000.
That is some dedication. I wonder if we will ever know the answer.
This is the smallest double Mersenne prime for which it is unknown whether it is composite or prime. Yet people are obsessed with proving that it is prime. Or not.
"A number of people (including the author of this page) have tried finding divisors of MM61, MM89, MM107, MM127, MM521, MM607 and others, but so far without success"
--http://sites.google.com/site/anthonydforbes/mm61.htm
It has been proven that MM61 is not divisible by any number up to 1167025860000000.
That is some dedication. I wonder if we will ever know the answer.
Inventory to Sales Ratio
I would say if it rises above 1.30, it probably means we are in a recession. It is at 1.29 now.
Will Oil drop to $32?
"The familiar theme of oversupply and shaky demand is getting punctuated today," said Again Capital partner John Kilduff, who has expected WTI to aim for $30 per barrel. WTI futures for September fell more than 4 percent Tuesday and traded below $43.26 per barrel, the March 17 low.
Kilduff said, "$42.03 is going to be key. Then we'll be back to extrapolating back down to the low 30s from the financial crisis." He said if oil breaks $42.03, the next target is in the upper $30s at about $36, and then $32.
--http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/11/opec-just-kicked-oil-into-the-30s.html
Update: Oil just settled below $39.
Now it is predicted to drop to $20.
Update: Oil just settled below $39.
Now it is predicted to drop to $20.
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Government shutdown likely
There is now a 60% chance of a government shutdown on October 1 because of the Planned Parenthood issue. This is separate from the debt limit increase, which is needed by about Nov. 15.
All of this increases the odds of some sort of financial catastrophe this fall.
All of this increases the odds of some sort of financial catastrophe this fall.
The Veteran's Administration does something right
The Veterans Administration is incompetent in many areas. They shouldn't be anywhere near construction management (see my posting about the Aurora, Colorado VA hospital where they are spending over $2 billion building a hospital with only 180 beds).
However, they have an amazing health information system called VistA. Most of it is open-source software, allowing a more robust system. There is a totally open-source version called WorldVista, which is used by many non-VA hospitals, even in other countries. Here is one overview of the system architecture I found.
Meanwhile, the DoD is preparing to build a new proprietary healthcare information system at a cost of over $10 billion. Why can't they just adopt VistA and create their own additional modules as necessary? A new massive computer system designed by the government sounds like the very definition of fiasco.
However, they have an amazing health information system called VistA. Most of it is open-source software, allowing a more robust system. There is a totally open-source version called WorldVista, which is used by many non-VA hospitals, even in other countries. Here is one overview of the system architecture I found.
Meanwhile, the DoD is preparing to build a new proprietary healthcare information system at a cost of over $10 billion. Why can't they just adopt VistA and create their own additional modules as necessary? A new massive computer system designed by the government sounds like the very definition of fiasco.
Monday, August 3, 2015
Masdar City Fail
What if they build the City of the Future and no one wants to live there?
The government of Abu Dhabi has spent more than $18 billion on Masdar City, yet today almost 5 years after it opened, only a hundred or so college students live there.
See:
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3035446/eerie-video-shows-masdar-city-the-sustainable-city-of-the-future-has-no-one-in-it
http://reason.com/archives/2014/11/16/stillborn-utopia
http://projourno.org/2013/10/the-failure-of-masdar-city/
The government of Abu Dhabi has spent more than $18 billion on Masdar City, yet today almost 5 years after it opened, only a hundred or so college students live there.
See:
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3035446/eerie-video-shows-masdar-city-the-sustainable-city-of-the-future-has-no-one-in-it
http://reason.com/archives/2014/11/16/stillborn-utopia
http://projourno.org/2013/10/the-failure-of-masdar-city/
Friday, July 31, 2015
Montreal Fail
During the 1970's, Montreal seemed like it was about to boom. Instead there were a number of epic failures that occurred that have scarred the city ever since.
First of all, the Olympic stadium, nicknamed "the Big Owe". It was supposed to have a retractable roof and an inclined tower overlooking it. It was supposed to cost C$134 million and be finished by 1972. Instead there was a strike by workers, delays caused by its unusual design, and massive cost overruns. It cost C$264 million by the time of the 1976 Olympics, where it was used even though it was uncompleted. The roof wasn't completed until 1987, however, soon after it was opened it ripped. In 1992, it was decided to keep the roof closed at all times. In 1998, the Kevlar roof was removed and replaced with a blue roof that didn't open at a cost of $26 million. In 1999, a portion of the new roof collapsed. The new roof was unsafe during heavy rainfall or snowfall (in Canada!) and it "rips 50 to 60 times a year". The cost for a new roof is an estimated $300 million.
The bizarre looking inclined tower was not fully completed until 1987. During the contruction period, at one point it caught on fire, and chunks of the tower fell on to the playing field.
The cost of the stadium continued to skyrocket, and the total cost came to C$1.6 billion, and it wasn't paid off until 2006. All paid by the taxpayers of Quebec. And now it sits empty most of the year. "With a history of numerous structural and financial problems, it is largely seen as a white elephant."
Second, and closely related are the Montreal Expos, whose home was the aformentioned Olympic stadium. They were an expansion team, and struggled to build a winning team. Finally, in 1994, they had the best record in Major League Baseball. But then there was a players strike, management sold off the best players, and attendance declined to 11,000 per game (in a 56,000 seat stadium) by 1998. Part of the problem was the horrible stadium, and there was a proposal to build a new $250 million baseball park. But it finally relocated to Washington DC where they were renamed the Washington Nationals.
Third, last but not least, is the Montreal-Mirabel Airport. It was a massive airport and opened in 1975 just in time for the 1976 Olympics. It was designed to accommodate 50 million passengers per year; however, it never exceeded 3 million passengers per year. The existing Dorval airport (now the Montreal-Trudeau airport) could easily handle this traffic. The Mirabel Airport ceased passenger operations in 2004 and converted to cargo operations, but it only handles 64,000 tons of cargo per year (the 6th busiest in Canada). The empty passenger terminal building was finally demolised in 2014. It is also considered a "white elephant".
Ok, and fourth, a failure on a smaller scale. The Habitat 67 project, a utopian apartment building. It was supposed to be built cheaply with prefabricated parts, but the budget spiraled out of control. It has been labeled a "failed dream".
Update: Montreal has the third best subway system in North America, behind only New York City and Mexico City.
First of all, the Olympic stadium, nicknamed "the Big Owe". It was supposed to have a retractable roof and an inclined tower overlooking it. It was supposed to cost C$134 million and be finished by 1972. Instead there was a strike by workers, delays caused by its unusual design, and massive cost overruns. It cost C$264 million by the time of the 1976 Olympics, where it was used even though it was uncompleted. The roof wasn't completed until 1987, however, soon after it was opened it ripped. In 1992, it was decided to keep the roof closed at all times. In 1998, the Kevlar roof was removed and replaced with a blue roof that didn't open at a cost of $26 million. In 1999, a portion of the new roof collapsed. The new roof was unsafe during heavy rainfall or snowfall (in Canada!) and it "rips 50 to 60 times a year". The cost for a new roof is an estimated $300 million.
The bizarre looking inclined tower was not fully completed until 1987. During the contruction period, at one point it caught on fire, and chunks of the tower fell on to the playing field.
The cost of the stadium continued to skyrocket, and the total cost came to C$1.6 billion, and it wasn't paid off until 2006. All paid by the taxpayers of Quebec. And now it sits empty most of the year. "With a history of numerous structural and financial problems, it is largely seen as a white elephant."
Second, and closely related are the Montreal Expos, whose home was the aformentioned Olympic stadium. They were an expansion team, and struggled to build a winning team. Finally, in 1994, they had the best record in Major League Baseball. But then there was a players strike, management sold off the best players, and attendance declined to 11,000 per game (in a 56,000 seat stadium) by 1998. Part of the problem was the horrible stadium, and there was a proposal to build a new $250 million baseball park. But it finally relocated to Washington DC where they were renamed the Washington Nationals.
Third, last but not least, is the Montreal-Mirabel Airport. It was a massive airport and opened in 1975 just in time for the 1976 Olympics. It was designed to accommodate 50 million passengers per year; however, it never exceeded 3 million passengers per year. The existing Dorval airport (now the Montreal-Trudeau airport) could easily handle this traffic. The Mirabel Airport ceased passenger operations in 2004 and converted to cargo operations, but it only handles 64,000 tons of cargo per year (the 6th busiest in Canada). The empty passenger terminal building was finally demolised in 2014. It is also considered a "white elephant".
Ok, and fourth, a failure on a smaller scale. The Habitat 67 project, a utopian apartment building. It was supposed to be built cheaply with prefabricated parts, but the budget spiraled out of control. It has been labeled a "failed dream".
Update: Montreal has the third best subway system in North America, behind only New York City and Mexico City.
Initial Jobless Claims
2015-02-21 308000 2015-02-28 327000 2015-03-07 293000 2015-03-14 293000 2015-03-21 288000 2015-03-28 267000 2015-04-04 282000 2015-04-11 295000 2015-04-18 296000 2015-04-25 262000 2015-05-02 265000 2015-05-09 264000 2015-05-16 275000 2015-05-23 284000 2015-05-30 277000 2015-06-06 279000 2015-06-13 268000 2015-06-20 271000 2015-06-27 282000 2015-07-04 296000 2015-07-11 281000 2015-07-18 255000 2015-07-25 267000
Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/ICSA.txt
It bottomed out last week.
How does this compare to earlier cycles? It was at 259,000 on 2000-04-15, but it wasn't clear that it was in an uptrend until it hit 356,000 on 2000-11-15.
It was at 282,000 on 2006-01-28. It was 296,000 on 2007-01-13. It was 297,000 on 2007-05-12. It was 302,000 on 2007-09-22. I would say that it wasn't clear that it was in a recession until 2008-04-26 when it was at 370,000, more than 2 years after hitting bottom.
So there is magic number of about 90,000 from the low. We can pretty much ignore this until it breaks 350,000, which is a sign that the recession has begun. It could take a while.
New World Order to be implemented on September 25
Notice: I do not subscribe to the views advocated below. I am just noting it for the record.
EMERGENCY BULLETIN!
The New World Order Will Be
Implemented September 25th!
The New World Currency Will Be
Introduced October 20th!
We Are At the Brink of Total
Worldwide Financial Collapse!
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Stock Market Crash Imminent
Source: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/an-expert-that-correctly-called-the-last-two-stock-market-crashes-is-now-predicting-another-one
There are a unique combination of factors, including:
- new record high
- less than 27% of investment advisers are bearish
- Schilling P/E greater than 18
- more than 40% of stocks below their 200-day moving average at the same time.
This combination has only occurred 4 times in the last 50 years:
- in November 1972, seven weeks before a market crash of 50%
- in March 2000, marking the exact weekly high (although the crash did not occur until Sept. 2001)
- October 2007, marking the exact weekly high (although the crash did not occur until Sept 2008)
- on July 17, 2015
So, it is pretty clear a market high has been reached. Although the crash may not occur for another year.
Compare and Contrast
Bernie Sanders is an alternative "quirky" Democratic candidate. It seems like we have seen his type before. I don't have time to develop this theme, but compare and contrast him to these candidates of yesteryear. Don't forget to comment on his hair, facial features, and other irrelevant factors.
Jerry Brown (1992)
Ralph Nader (2000)
Dennis Kucinich (2004)
Howard Dean (2004)
Mike Gravel (2008)
Jerry Brown (1992)
Ralph Nader (2000)
Dennis Kucinich (2004)
Howard Dean (2004)
Mike Gravel (2008)
Sunday, July 26, 2015
New Social Security Report
The new 2015 Social Security Report just came out. Key points:
The dollar level of the theoretical combined trust fund reserves declines beginning in 2020 until reserves become depleted in 2034. Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035.
Yes! This is one year later than predicted in last year's report. If we keep kicking the can down the road, Social Security can be solvent forever.
What about the 75-year deficit?
The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $10.7 trillion in present value and is $0.1 trillion more than the measured level of $10.6 trillion a year ago.
That's only $100 billion more than a year ago. That's almost a rounding error. Good job actuaries.
The only problem is the DI fund being depleted.
The DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2016, at which time continuing income to the DI Trust Fund would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of DI benefits. Therefore, legislative action is needed as soon as possible to address the DI program’s financial imbalance.
The dollar level of the theoretical combined trust fund reserves declines beginning in 2020 until reserves become depleted in 2034. Considered separately, the DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2035.
Yes! This is one year later than predicted in last year's report. If we keep kicking the can down the road, Social Security can be solvent forever.
What about the 75-year deficit?
The open group unfunded obligation for OASDI over the 75-year period is $10.7 trillion in present value and is $0.1 trillion more than the measured level of $10.6 trillion a year ago.
That's only $100 billion more than a year ago. That's almost a rounding error. Good job actuaries.
The only problem is the DI fund being depleted.
The DI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in the fourth quarter of 2016, at which time continuing income to the DI Trust Fund would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of DI benefits. Therefore, legislative action is needed as soon as possible to address the DI program’s financial imbalance.
Friday, July 24, 2015
You've been annexed
When it became clear that outright annexation was a political non-starter, [David] Rusk and his followers settled on a series of measures designed to achieve de facto annexation over time. The plan has three elements: 1) Inhibit suburban growth, and when possible encourage suburban re-migration to cities. This can be achieved, for example, through regional growth boundaries (as in Portland), or by relative neglect of highway-building and repair in favor of public transportation. 2) Force the urban poor into the suburbs through the imposition of low-income housing quotas. 3) Institute “regional tax-base sharing,” where a state forces upper-middle-class suburbs to transfer tax revenue to nearby cities and less-well-off inner-ring suburbs (as in Minneapolis/St. Paul).
If you press suburbanites into cities, transfer urbanites to the suburbs, and redistribute suburban tax money to cities, you have effectively abolished the suburbs. For all practical purposes, the suburbs would then be co-opted into a single metropolitan region. Advocates of these policy prescriptions call themselves “regionalists.”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/421389/attention-americas-suburbs-you-have-just-been-annexed-stanley-kurtz
If you press suburbanites into cities, transfer urbanites to the suburbs, and redistribute suburban tax money to cities, you have effectively abolished the suburbs. For all practical purposes, the suburbs would then be co-opted into a single metropolitan region. Advocates of these policy prescriptions call themselves “regionalists.”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/421389/attention-americas-suburbs-you-have-just-been-annexed-stanley-kurtz
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Monday, July 20, 2015
How long between the peak and the crash?
I am using the Dow Jones as the reference.
The Dow reached a high of 11,522 on 1/7/2000. The high in 2001 was 11,339 on 5/21/2001, and the crash occurred on 9/11/2001. The markets closed for a week and reopened on 9/17/2011 with a loss of 684 points (-7.13%). If we use the 2001 high, it happened 110 days after the high.
Next, the Dow reached a high of 14,000 on 7/19/2007. The high in 2008 was 13,058 on 5/2/2008. The crash occurred on 9/28/2008, losing 777 points (-6.98%). If we use the 2008 high, it happened 149 days later.
The average is 130 days. So if past is any sort of guide, and I am suggesting that it is, what is 130 days after May 19, 2015? It's September 26, but since that is a Saturday, lets use September 25, 2015.
So we can expect a stock market crash of at least 1200 points (-6.5%) on September 25, 2015, plus or minus 20 days. So anytime between September 7, 2015 and October 15, 2015. I've been predicting some big event on September 11, 2015 as the most likely day. If it doesn't happen on September 11, it will probably happen on September 17. But it could occur anytime between September 7 or October 15. I hope I am wrong.
The Dow reached a high of 11,522 on 1/7/2000. The high in 2001 was 11,339 on 5/21/2001, and the crash occurred on 9/11/2001. The markets closed for a week and reopened on 9/17/2011 with a loss of 684 points (-7.13%). If we use the 2001 high, it happened 110 days after the high.
Next, the Dow reached a high of 14,000 on 7/19/2007. The high in 2008 was 13,058 on 5/2/2008. The crash occurred on 9/28/2008, losing 777 points (-6.98%). If we use the 2008 high, it happened 149 days later.
The average is 130 days. So if past is any sort of guide, and I am suggesting that it is, what is 130 days after May 19, 2015? It's September 26, but since that is a Saturday, lets use September 25, 2015.
So we can expect a stock market crash of at least 1200 points (-6.5%) on September 25, 2015, plus or minus 20 days. So anytime between September 7, 2015 and October 15, 2015. I've been predicting some big event on September 11, 2015 as the most likely day. If it doesn't happen on September 11, it will probably happen on September 17. But it could occur anytime between September 7 or October 15. I hope I am wrong.
The Financial Crisis of 2015 was predicted in 2011 to start in Singapore.
There was an interesting article entitled "The Financial Crisis of 2015 - An Avoidable History" was published on Jan 31, 2011.
What I find interesting about this is that Mr Wyman predicted a very specific place (Singapore) and date (April 26, 2015) for this to begin. "John Banks was woken by his phone at 3am on Sunday, April 26, 2015. John worked for Garland Brothers, a formerly British bank that had relocated its headquarters to Singapore in late 2011."
The STI (Strait Times Index) is the index for the stock market in Singapore. It reached an all-time high on 10/11/2007 when it reached 3876, which it has never exceeded since. The 2nd all-time high occurred on April 15, 2015, when it reached 3540. Wow, that's pretty close.
The FTSE 100 index from London reached an all-time high of 7103.98 on April 27, 2015, within one day of the prediction.
Some other highs:
DAX (German) index reached its high on April 10, 2015 of 11,680.
Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its all-time high on May 19, 2015 at 18,312
SP 500 reached its high on May 21, 2015 at 2130
Shanghai SE Composite Index on June 5, 2015 of 5023
Russell 2000 index on June 23, 2015 of 1295.
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index on on June 24, 2015 of 27,405
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo) reached 20,868 on June 24, 2015. The last time it was higher than this was in 1996.
Now it is possible that new highs could be reached. But it appears that for this business cycle, the stock market highs have already been reached.
Update: The NASDAQ Composite Index (XIC) just reached its all-time high on Friday July 17, of 5210. So maybe the boom is still continuing, and the Dow and SP500 will follow. Something to watch.
Update2: The NASDAQ closed at 5218 on July 20. But this appears to be the high.
What I find interesting about this is that Mr Wyman predicted a very specific place (Singapore) and date (April 26, 2015) for this to begin. "John Banks was woken by his phone at 3am on Sunday, April 26, 2015. John worked for Garland Brothers, a formerly British bank that had relocated its headquarters to Singapore in late 2011."
The STI (Strait Times Index) is the index for the stock market in Singapore. It reached an all-time high on 10/11/2007 when it reached 3876, which it has never exceeded since. The 2nd all-time high occurred on April 15, 2015, when it reached 3540. Wow, that's pretty close.
The FTSE 100 index from London reached an all-time high of 7103.98 on April 27, 2015, within one day of the prediction.
Some other highs:
DAX (German) index reached its high on April 10, 2015 of 11,680.
Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its all-time high on May 19, 2015 at 18,312
SP 500 reached its high on May 21, 2015 at 2130
Shanghai SE Composite Index on June 5, 2015 of 5023
Russell 2000 index on June 23, 2015 of 1295.
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index on on June 24, 2015 of 27,405
Nikkei 225 (Tokyo) reached 20,868 on June 24, 2015. The last time it was higher than this was in 1996.
Now it is possible that new highs could be reached. But it appears that for this business cycle, the stock market highs have already been reached.
Update: The NASDAQ Composite Index (XIC) just reached its all-time high on Friday July 17, of 5210. So maybe the boom is still continuing, and the Dow and SP500 will follow. Something to watch.
Update2: The NASDAQ closed at 5218 on July 20. But this appears to be the high.
Friday, July 17, 2015
September 15
"Due to some research I noticed that almost every major market collapse happens during this year and usually on this one day when the Shemittah year is finalized. It is the final year of the Shemittah. I looked into it and this year it happens to be September 13, 2015. The last Shemittah was in 2008. That was the day that had the biggest point drop in the stock market of all time. Seven years before that was 2001, just after September 11th. On the final day of the Shemittah, September 17th, the New York Stock Exchange reopened after September 11th and fell, I think, the most in history at that point.
I have been just looking at these dates and then I start to put together that there is this massive military exercise going on in the US right now called Jade Helm. It runs essentially from July until September 15th. On September 15th there is also a meeting at the United Nations for their 70th Jubilee session, and most major world leaders are going to be there in New York. There are so many things. The pope also is going to be speaking at, I believe, the UN or Congress on that day or around that day."
Ok, that's the last one. I may make another post listing all of the key dates.
November 15, 2015 is the estimated X Date
The US has bumped up against its debt ceiling of $18.15 trillion dollars and it is playing games to keep from going over. But by the X date, it will no longer to able to do that and it will have to default if the ceiling is not raised by the date.
The current estimate for the X date is "the months of November and December". So I am arbitrarily picking November 15 as the X date, to be revised as the time gets closer.
The current estimate for the X date is "the months of November and December". So I am arbitrarily picking November 15 as the X date, to be revised as the time gets closer.
October 20
Some conspiracy theorists believe that the IMF will introduce a new currency on October 20, 2015 that will replace the US Dollar causing it to collapse. See for instance "New World Dollar". I think it is possible that they tweak the SDR to include the Chinese Yuan as a reserve currency. But I don't think it will have an impact. Still, its another date this fall that might cause something to happen.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
October 23 and Pi
"Black Tuesday" was when the stock market crashed on October 24, 1929. October 23 is 86 years after that date, less a day to make it fall on a Friday instead of a Saturday. What is so important about this date, other than the anniversary?
Well, once upon a time, there was an economist named Martin Armstrong who had a theory that the number pi influenced economics. Every 3141 days (8.6 years), the economy would crash. He predicted the stock market crash of 1987 to the day. So ten cycles of 8.6 years mean the cycles will repeat.
See also: The Business Cycle and the Future
He sees a significance in 6 cycles, which total 51.6 years.
For the record, he did see a cycle starting in 1929, but he used "1929.75" (Oct 1, 1929) as the start date. And he sees something happening on 2015.75 (October 1, 2015)
=================================
While we are speaking of cycles, the Mayans of course had their 260 cycle which repeats every 52 years. The Mayan prophecy of the end of the world on December 21, 2012 of course was a bust, but that doesn't mean the 52 year cycle is invalid.
So what happened 51.6 or 52 years ago?. Well, November 22, 2015 will be the 52nd anniversary of the assassination of JFK. Another important day. Or not.
Some people believe that he was assassinated because of Executive Order 11110, which would have replaced Federal Reserve Notes with silver certificates.
Well, once upon a time, there was an economist named Martin Armstrong who had a theory that the number pi influenced economics. Every 3141 days (8.6 years), the economy would crash. He predicted the stock market crash of 1987 to the day. So ten cycles of 8.6 years mean the cycles will repeat.
See also: The Business Cycle and the Future
He sees a significance in 6 cycles, which total 51.6 years.
For the record, he did see a cycle starting in 1929, but he used "1929.75" (Oct 1, 1929) as the start date. And he sees something happening on 2015.75 (October 1, 2015)
=================================
While we are speaking of cycles, the Mayans of course had their 260 cycle which repeats every 52 years. The Mayan prophecy of the end of the world on December 21, 2012 of course was a bust, but that doesn't mean the 52 year cycle is invalid.
So what happened 51.6 or 52 years ago?. Well, November 22, 2015 will be the 52nd anniversary of the assassination of JFK. Another important day. Or not.
Some people believe that he was assassinated because of Executive Order 11110, which would have replaced Federal Reserve Notes with silver certificates.
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
September 17
This is another key date in the drama that will unfold this fall.
There will be a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17. At that time, they are likely to raise interest rates by 0.25%. While this is nothing, it may set off a panic chain-reaction. Or not.
There will be a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17. At that time, they are likely to raise interest rates by 0.25%. While this is nothing, it may set off a panic chain-reaction. Or not.
Total Business Sales
Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBUSSMSA
What does it mean if this drops below zero?
The sun will turn into darkness, and the moon into blood
Fun fact: September 13, 2015 will be a partial solar eclipse, and September 28, 2015 will be a total lunar eclipse, (aka "blood moon"), where the moon appears red because of dispersed light from the Earth.
"This lunar eclipse will be particularly rare, because it is a harvest moon lunar eclipse, taking place also on the day of the closest supermoon of 2015". (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2015_lunar_eclipse).
Query to an astronomer: When is the last time this sequence of events occurred - a solar eclipse, followed shortly by a harvest moon lunar eclipse, which is also a supermoon, which is also the fourth moon of a blood moon tetrad?
Apparently this happens about every 600 years, see http://www.watchmansview.com/Blood_Red_Moons.html
Query to an astronomer: When is the last time this sequence of events occurred - a solar eclipse, followed shortly by a harvest moon lunar eclipse, which is also a supermoon, which is also the fourth moon of a blood moon tetrad?
Apparently this happens about every 600 years, see http://www.watchmansview.com/Blood_Red_Moons.html
D minus 58
We do not like to put specific dates on when this will happen but we do note that the IMF has postponed a meeting to decide how to proceed without the United States until September. We note that a year of jubilee has been predicted by the Vatican, religious Jews and many others to start on September 13th, 2015. September 13th this year falls on a Sunday so the last trading day before that will be September 11th. Remember, remember, the 11th of September. Also remember the blood moon on September 28th.
--http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2015/07/benjamin-fulford-july-13th-2015-full.html
Um, the Year of Jubilee announced by the Vatican starts on December 8, not September 13. But it is interesting that it matches the seven year cycle.
Rosh Hashanah is the start of the Jewish New Year, and the next one will start on the evening of September 13, 2015 and continue on September 14. It is the First of Tishrei in the Jewish calendar. The previous day (evening of 9/12/15 to 9/13/15) is the 29th of Elul. The last day of a 7 year cycle is a special day known as "the Lord's Release", in which debts to neighbors will be released.
At the end of every seven years you shall grant a release. And this is the manner of the release: every creditor shall release what he has lent to his neighbor. He shall not exact it of his neighbor, his brother, because the Lord's release has been proclaimed. Deuteronomy 15:1-2
The last trading day before Elul 29 is September 11.
===========================
Update:
The first Shmita year in the modern State of Israel was 1951 (5712 in the Hebrew calendar). Subsequent Shmita years have been 1958–59 (5719), 1965–66 (5726), 1972–73 (5733), 1979–80 (5740), 1986–87 (5747), 1993–94 (5754), 2000–01 (5761), and 2007–08 (5768). The last Shmita year began on Rosh Hashanah in September 2014, corresponding to the Hebrew calendar year 5775.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shmita
So the Shmita year will end on September 13, 2015
--http://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2015/07/benjamin-fulford-july-13th-2015-full.html
Um, the Year of Jubilee announced by the Vatican starts on December 8, not September 13. But it is interesting that it matches the seven year cycle.
Rosh Hashanah is the start of the Jewish New Year, and the next one will start on the evening of September 13, 2015 and continue on September 14. It is the First of Tishrei in the Jewish calendar. The previous day (evening of 9/12/15 to 9/13/15) is the 29th of Elul. The last day of a 7 year cycle is a special day known as "the Lord's Release", in which debts to neighbors will be released.
At the end of every seven years you shall grant a release. And this is the manner of the release: every creditor shall release what he has lent to his neighbor. He shall not exact it of his neighbor, his brother, because the Lord's release has been proclaimed. Deuteronomy 15:1-2
The last trading day before Elul 29 is September 11.
===========================
Update:
The first Shmita year in the modern State of Israel was 1951 (5712 in the Hebrew calendar). Subsequent Shmita years have been 1958–59 (5719), 1965–66 (5726), 1972–73 (5733), 1979–80 (5740), 1986–87 (5747), 1993–94 (5754), 2000–01 (5761), and 2007–08 (5768). The last Shmita year began on Rosh Hashanah in September 2014, corresponding to the Hebrew calendar year 5775.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shmita
So the Shmita year will end on September 13, 2015
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Margin Debt
Source: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8
What happens when Margin Debt reaches an all-time high and then declines? It is either a leading indicator of a stock market crash and recession, or ... nothing. This is prone to false signals. But you can't discount the first possibility.
In March 2000, margin debt reached an all-time high of $278.5 billion. The recession began in March 2001, 12 months later.
In July 2007, margin debt reached an all-time high of $381.4 billion. The recession began in December 2007, 5 months later.
In April 2015, margin debt reached an all-time high of $507.2 billion. The recession will begin in .. maybe October?, 6 months later.
Initial Jobless Claims
Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ICSA
What does it mean when initial jobless claims reach a 15-year low and then start to rise? The low number was 262,000 on April 25, 2015, and the latest number is 297,000 on July 4, 2015. It's all uphill from here.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
The crash is happening now
This is the Hang Seng Index (from Hong Kong). The high was on June 24, 2015 when it reached 27,405. Now it is at 23,517, a decline of 14.2%, which is officially a "market correction" (10% decline) and almost a "bear market" (20% decline).
The Shanghai SE Composite Index reached a high on June 5, 2015 of 5023. It had a slow decline until June 16, when it fell to 4887, and then it fell off the cliff. It is now at 3507, a decline of 31.2%.
The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average reached its all-time high on May 19, 2015 at 18,312. It is currently at 17,596, a decline of 4%.
The SP 500 reached its high on May 21, 2015 at 2130. It is currently at 2056, a decline of 3.5%.
While the Dow and SP500 aren't down that much in percentage terms, they have both had failed attempts to recover the high. It's all down hill from here. We can just expect a slow decline from here until the big crash and recession officially begins, variously predicted as occurring on September 11, October 1, or October 20.
I have been rooting for a crash for a long time, as a way of cleaning out the dead wood and zombies. But in the short term this will cause pain for a lot of people. If there are smart people in charge of the system, they should be engaged in fiscal and monetary policy now to ward off the harshness of the coming crash. But of course the people in charge are idiots and never think a crash will occur again and don't see this coming and will only react after the fact.
I think I will start a countdown to doomsday, September 11. Today is D minus 64. The last time I did a countdown like this was for a supposed Mayan end of the world on December 21, 2012, which turned out to be nothing. I am probably wrong here too, but it is fun to make predictions.
===========
Update: NYSE suspends all trading on a technical glitch.
Friday, June 12, 2015
Red Cross Fail
https://www.propublica.org/article/how-the-red-cross-raised-half-a-billion-dollars-for-haiti-and-built-6-homes
Aid organizations from around the world have struggled after the earthquake in Haiti, the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country. But ProPublica and NPR’s investigation shows that many of the Red Cross’s failings in Haiti are of its own making. They are also part of a larger pattern in which the organization has botched delivery of aid after disasters such as Superstorm Sandy.
Aid organizations from around the world have struggled after the earthquake in Haiti, the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country. But ProPublica and NPR’s investigation shows that many of the Red Cross’s failings in Haiti are of its own making. They are also part of a larger pattern in which the organization has botched delivery of aid after disasters such as Superstorm Sandy.
Monday, June 8, 2015
NYSE Margin Debt
Source: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3153&category=8
There is a 30 day lag in reporting the numbers. It will go up forever! But heaven help us if it starts to drop.
Two years ago, I was freaking out about this number being $384,000. Obviously, I was wrong. Mea culpa. But if $384,000 was a problem, $507,000 (that's $507 billion) is much more so.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Deported
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3098952/Raised-America-dumped-Mexico-Mexican-born-criminals-grow-deported-Mexican-border-release-jail-life-gangs-drugs-guns-poverty.html
Andres is one of 20,000 Mexican-criminals, who were taken across the border to America as babies where they grew up.
But despite speaking no Spanish and having never lived there, once they served time in jail, America washed its hands of them - and sent them back to Mexico.
Most of the men like Andres end up on drugs living in the crime-ridden district of Zona Norte in Tijuana - directly beside the triple fence that separates their adopted home of the United States from Mexico.
Ninety percent of the Zona Norte deportees are drug addicts, and all are waiting for their opportunity to sneak back over the border and go 'home'.
Friday, May 22, 2015
Mega Developments in Albuquerque
For some reason, Albuquerque, New Mexico, attracts sprawling massive development projects that may never be finished.
First, there is Mesa del Sol, covering 12,900 acres, that will eventually house 100,000 people. However, there are only about 200 occupied homes today.
Second, there is Rio Rancho, which today is a city of about 90,000 north of Albuquerque covering about 100 sq. miles, two-thirds of which are vacant.. A development was planned in the 70s for 55,000 acres of land, but only a small portion was built. The streets were laid out and are visible from space. See also Rio Rancho's tangled legacy.
Third, there is Loma Colorado. While this is a successful development by Pulte, it still has many vacant lots.
And now, there is Santolina, a 13,700 acre development that will have a population of 95,000 upon completion. However, there are concerns about the need for it, and also where it will get water. See the official website.
First, there is Mesa del Sol, covering 12,900 acres, that will eventually house 100,000 people. However, there are only about 200 occupied homes today.
Second, there is Rio Rancho, which today is a city of about 90,000 north of Albuquerque covering about 100 sq. miles, two-thirds of which are vacant.. A development was planned in the 70s for 55,000 acres of land, but only a small portion was built. The streets were laid out and are visible from space. See also Rio Rancho's tangled legacy.
Third, there is Loma Colorado. While this is a successful development by Pulte, it still has many vacant lots.
And now, there is Santolina, a 13,700 acre development that will have a population of 95,000 upon completion. However, there are concerns about the need for it, and also where it will get water. See the official website.
Thursday, May 21, 2015
The curse of the VA Hospital in Aurora
The Veterans Administration is building a new hospital in Aurora, CO that was originally supposed to open this month - May 2015. The original budget was for $328 million, then revised to $604 billion, but this quickly became $1 billion, and then $1.73 billion with an opening in 2017. And this doesn't include $340 million of "activation costs", like beds and such, making the total cost $2.07 billion.
Congress is outraged, and there will likely be a shutdown this summer; however, that will add as much as $200 million to the cost for "demobilization and remobilization expenses" and push the opening to 2018.
But it is a huge hospital, right? Wrong. It only has 182 beds, putting the cost at $9,5 million per bed. It has about 8 wings, each of which is about 5 stories tall.
So what went wrong?
===================
===================
It has a bad reputation among subcontractors:
The project's rotten reputation among subcontractors — the result of bad blood between the VA and K-T, almost from the start, that eventually spilled into court — was a major reason costs rose so dramatically. Small companies rely on prompt payments to meet payroll and expenses, often unable to cover those costs for very long. Many rely on bank loans and lines of credit to bridge the gap. But some banks balked at letting small business clients rely on its money to work on the VA project.
====================
See also: http://www.9news.com/story/news/investigations/casualties-of-care/2015/03/17/denver-va-hospital-1-billion-over-budget/24925269/
http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/2015/05/20/va-hospital-project-shutdown-likely/27668565/
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_27103393/contractor-kiewit-walking-away-from-va-hospital-aurora
=================
Update: See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3091430/VA-nearly-cash-half-budget-busting-hospital.html
Congress is outraged, and there will likely be a shutdown this summer; however, that will add as much as $200 million to the cost for "demobilization and remobilization expenses" and push the opening to 2018.
But it is a huge hospital, right? Wrong. It only has 182 beds, putting the cost at $9,5 million per bed. It has about 8 wings, each of which is about 5 stories tall.
So what went wrong?
===================
It wasn't just the unforeseen mineral spring that was flooding the land, or the buried relic of a swimming pool that exploded the budget of the new Veterans Affairs hospital under construction in Aurora. Nor was it only the ballooning price of structural steel, the years of wrangling with a key contractor or the pricey chunk of land next to two of Colorado's busiest roads.
The real story is largely one of good, old-fashioned constituent clout, bureaucratic infighting, leadership changes and never getting to "no," according to those familiar with the development. Along the way, a plan to build an affordable, innovative redesign of the region's veterans health center morphed into a massive, years-overdue extravagance.
--http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_23470410/auroras-new-va-hospital-has-long-costly-history===================
It has a bad reputation among subcontractors:
The project's rotten reputation among subcontractors — the result of bad blood between the VA and K-T, almost from the start, that eventually spilled into court — was a major reason costs rose so dramatically. Small companies rely on prompt payments to meet payroll and expenses, often unable to cover those costs for very long. Many rely on bank loans and lines of credit to bridge the gap. But some banks balked at letting small business clients rely on its money to work on the VA project.
"The bad name of this project is on the street," warned James Chang, a VA resident engineer on the project in December 2012. "No one wants to bid on this project." Companies would happily work with Kiewit, and had done so previously, but would not work on this VA project.
--http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28125325/aurora-va-hospital-project-spooked-subcontractors-causing-cost====================
See also: http://www.9news.com/story/news/investigations/casualties-of-care/2015/03/17/denver-va-hospital-1-billion-over-budget/24925269/
http://www.9news.com/story/news/local/2015/05/20/va-hospital-project-shutdown-likely/27668565/
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_27103393/contractor-kiewit-walking-away-from-va-hospital-aurora
=================
Update: See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3091430/VA-nearly-cash-half-budget-busting-hospital.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)