Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Stock market crash warning

This is from HSBC. "We now issue a RED ALERT".  So long as the Dow remains above 17992, everything is fine.  If it drops below that level, heaven help us.  Right now (10/12) it is at 18144, so there is about 150 points of margin.  If it goes above 18449, everything is fine and the alert will be canceled.

There was a triple top which the market failed to break, then it dropped below a trend line, and now it is testing resistance.

Update:  The Dow closed today (10/13) at 18098.  It dropped as low as 17959.95 before finding support.  So I am moving the floor to 17959.  It will break out at some point either to the upside or downside soon.  Moving up isn't necessarily good, because that means it would have more to fall.  The best case scenario is probably a slow decline.  So a close slightly below the floor, without dropping further, would be a good sign.  But still, breaking through 17959 could cause a crash.

Update 2 (11/1/2016):  I am cancelling the crash warning, although the stock marking is still flat lining.  I really expected something to happen in October.  The next danger period will be January.  I don't think the election results will make that much difference.  Whoever is the next president is in for a world of hurt.

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