Closing Down Blog

 I originally started this blog in June 2010 as an economic blog with the premise that the existing financial system was going to collapse because of too much debt and that we could forecast the approximate date when this would occur.  I originally forecast that this would occur in 2022, and thus the name of the blog.  I wanted to talk about how to prevent such as disaster and how to recover from it.  I still think that this collapse will occur and the last forecast I did was in September 2022 based on CBO numbers showing that this system was no longer sustainable past 2049.

I think that we have had several breaking points in our economic history and among these dates were October 20, 1987 (when the system came within hours of collapsing),  August 9 2007 (when the money markets completely broke down), and September 17 2019 (when the Fed lost control of the interest rates).  Each occasion required immediate Fed intervention.  

And then there was the artificially-induced pandemic recession, which I haven't analyzed to pick an exact date, but I think Feb 27 2020 (when the Dow dropped 1190 points) may be a good date.  On Feb 26, 2020 the Fed balance sheet was at $4.1 trillion and this soared to $6 trillion as of 4/8/20, and then $7 trillion as of 5/25/20.

I have tried to keep this blog focused on objective, economic information and to stay away from politics, although I have veered off into conspiracy theories for fun. I have written extensively about all the disasters that occur on April 19 or April 20 and it freaked me out so much that I have tried to forget about it.  

I can no longer remain objective.  Everything has been completely politicized.  We had a silent communist coup in this country on November 4  that was validated by the Supreme Court on December 11.  Voting no longer matters. The national debt is irrelevant because the Fed can create money at will.  The stock market is completely disconnected from reality.  The United States, which had a glorious history beginning on July 4, 1776, died on December 11, 2020.  RIP USA.

Thus this blog has no reason to exist.  I will leave it up until the censors at Blogger send it down the memory hole.  I have written lots of interesting things which I don't want to delete, but to write further on here would validate the illusion that the economic problems we are facing can be addressed as choices by free people. Instead the Politburo will just decide what to do.  So I am done, goodbye.  

The theory of M5 in a banana republic

 I'm thinking about my M5 model and how it works.  Here are some examples:

§1.  Imagine an island with 4 people on it.  Let's call it Gilligan's Island.  The people are Mr Howell, representing the private sector; the Skipper, representing the US Treasury; and the Professor, representing the Federal Reserve.  Gilligan is your typical American consumer who spends money as fast as he has it.  There are other people on the island (Mary Ann and Ginger) too, but they don't know what is going on.

The first 3 form a conspiracy.  Howell claims ownership of all the seashells on the beaches, which are used as a form of currency.  The Skipper claims ownership of all the land and coconut trees, on behalf of the residents.  The Professor claims ownership of all the mineral rights.  Private citizens own their own huts, although some rent.  

The Professor has the brilliant idea to form a bank which will be called the Fed.  It will be capitalized with $1 million of gold that is in the ground and can be mined.  He also has a mechanical printing press and he can print "money" on banana leaves.  He prints up $1 million worth of banana leaf money and buys $1 million of Howell's seashells.  The Skipper then prints up a banana leaf bond and borrows the $1 million at 5% interest from Howell.  Howell also forms his own private bank, called Chase Bank, which will take deposits and make loans.

At this point, what is M5?  There is no money in circulation (outside the Treasury's hands), so it is $1 million, which is the national debt.

§2.  Now the Skipper, wanting to be popular, creates "jobs" and starts paying salaries. He of course gets a salary as the Secretary of Treasurer of the Island Government.  He gives Gilligan the "job" of surfing.  He gives an economic development grant to Mrs Howell so she can open a restaurant and she hires cooks and waitresses.  It doesn't take long before there is a thriving private sector.  And it doesn't take long for the Skipper to blow through the $1 million.  This is called "deficit spending". 

Howell's bank has lent out $500,000 to island citizens.  Howell also has rental income from huts that he owns.  And he lends money to himself from his bank, which is a conflict of interest, but no one knows about it or cares. He also issues Mortgage Backed Certificates which are backed by the huts that he owns and sells some of these to the Fed.

The amount of money in circulation is now $1.5 million and the national debt is now $1 million, so M5 is $2.5 million.

§3.  The Treasury is now out of cash, but no problem.  The Skipper prints up another banana leaf bond for $1 million and sells it to Howell, who uses cash on deposit in his bank and new loans to buy it.  This is called "increasing the national debt".

The national debt is now $2 million and the money in circulation is $1.5 million, so M5 is $3.5 million.  

§4.  Steps 2 and 3 repeat many times, until one day there is a hurricane which causes massive destruction.  The Skipper decides it is an emergency and will distribute $10 million in banana leaf money to the citizens as disaster relief.  But he doesn't have the cash, and this time Howell doesn't have enough money to buy all the bonds.  The Professor has the brilliant idea of doing Quantitative Easing.  The Skipper prints up a banana leaf bond for $1 million and sells it to Mr. Howell, who then sells it to the Professor in exchange for $1,050,000 in newly printed banana leaf cash.  They repeat this 10 times, until the Skipper has the $10 million.   

§5.  The real purpose of this thought experiment is to determine what changes M5 and what doesn't.  M5 is the money in circulation (M2) plus the marketable national debt, less the government debt that is owned by the Fed. If the government sells a bond for $1 million, this has no effect on M5 because the government debt increases but the money in circulation decreases. If the Fed buys a bond from the private sector for $1 million (with newly printed cash), then this has no effect on M5 because while the money in circulation increases, the bonds in circulation (outside the Fed's hands) decrease.  If Chase Bank lends money to a person, this increases M5.  If a loan is paid back, this decreases M5.  If the government does deficit spending, then M5 increases. 

§6.  My theory is that inflation (call this monetary inflation as opposed to consumer price inflation) is directly caused by increases in the total money supply (M5).  The expansion of the Fed balance sheet, if it is used to buy government bonds, has no effect on this.  The only way to create monetary inflation is with loans and with deficit spending.  (And the problem with loans is that they have to be paid back with interest, and there isn't enough money in circulation to pay back all the loans with interest).  Thus the only way to really increase M5 is with government deficit spending, but you want to limit how much of a deficit you run.

Is this a good explanation of the Magical Money Tree (MMT) or could it use some adjustments? 

Flu Vaccines

 Now, let's talk about flu vaccines.  What is the most common type of flu vaccine in the US?

In the US, "the flu vaccine" appears to be Fluzone (aka Fluzone High-Dose Quadrivalent Vaccine), manufactured by Sanofi Pasteur.  They also make Flublok Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine.  I can't find any studies about these but I haven't looked too hard.

Does the flu vaccine prevent you from getting the flu?

"While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine."  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

There are a lot of variety of influenza and the flu makers have to guess as to what will be common in the next 12 months.  If they are wrong, then the the flu shot is worthless.  If they are correct, then it will reduce the risk of getting the flu by 40% to 60%.   Let's say there is a 50% chance of guessing correctly.  So taking the flu shot will reduce your risk of getting the flu by 20 to 30% (call it 25%).

Are their side effects possible with the flu vaccine?  Of course. "The most common adverse events experienced during clinical studies were mild and temporary, and included pain, redness at the injection site, headache, muscle aches, and malaise. "   https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/qa_fluzone.htm

Will taking the flu shot reduce my risk of dying from the flu?  Yes.  The deaths per 100,000 from influenza is 3.4.  Taking the flu shot will reduce that risk by 25%, as calculated above.  So if you don't take the flu shot, your odds of not dying from the flu are 99.9966%.  If you do take the flu shot, your odds of not dying from the flu increase to 99.9975%.

==========================

Can You Still Get the Flu If You Get a Flu Shot?

Yes. "getting a dose of flu vaccine does not mean that you are immune to the flu. Flu vaccination offers protection against flu virus — and it’s the most effective way to prevent the flu — but you can still get sick even after vaccination." https://www.mana.md/can-you-still-get-the-flu-if-you-get-a-flu-shot/

Moderna Vaccine

See: https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/content_documents/mRNA-1273-Update-11-16-20-Final.pdf 

The Moderna vaccine is called mRNA-1273.  They did a Phase III study of approximately 30,000 subjects.  It doesn't give exact number or how many were in the control group but it is says it was "A Phase 3, Randomized, Stratified, Observer-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study", so assume 50%.

There were 95 cases of Covid, with 90 in the control group and 5 in the vaccine group, so an efficacy rate of 94.5% (90/95).  There were 11 severe cases of Covid, none in the vaccinated group.

To state it a different way, if you don't take the vaccine, you have a 99.93% chance of not developing a severe case of Covid.  If you do take the vaccine, you have a 100% chance of not developing a severe case of Covid.

Questions?

1. Side effects?  Grade 3 (severe) events greater than or equal to 2% in frequency after the first dose included injection site pain (2.7%), and after the second dose included fatigue (9.7%), myalgia (8.9%), arthralgia (5.2%), headache (4.5%), pain (4.1%) and erythema/redness at the injection site (2.0%).

2. Does this actually prevent infection, or prevent the recipient from being infectious?  No information, other than what was stated.  The study was about "mRNA-1273's efficacy and its ability to prevent infection or mitigate symptoms of COVID-19".  As stated, the mRNA-1273 seems to be 100% effective in preventing severe cases of Covid (compared to the Pfizer vaccine which is 99.995% effective).

3. Does the Moderna vaccine have to be stored at -70 degrees Celsius?  No.  mRNA-1273 remains stable at -20° C (-4°F) for up to six months, at refrigerated conditions (2 to 8 degrees Celsius) for up to 30 days and at room temperature for up to 12 hours.  This is much less fragile than the Pfizer vaccine.

So same analysis.  I don't see the harm in taking it, and you will feel like superman or superwoman after you do, so if you want to take it, do so.  However, it is much more likely that you will develop side effects if you take it, than you will contract a serious case of Covid if you don't.

========================

A lot of Moderna participants had severe side effects.

At least two manufacturers, Cambridge, Mass.-based Moderna and CanSino, a Chinese vaccine maker, stopped testing the highest doses of their Covid-19 vaccines because of the number of severe adverse events recorded among participants in their clinical trials. The Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine, which uses a harmless-to-humans virus that infects chimpanzees as its backbone, saw adverse events reported by 60% of recipients in its early phase trial, reported last week in the journal The Lancet. Half of patients who got the highest dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine — which like Moderna’s is a messenger RNA vaccine — reported side effects.  https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/covid-19-vaccines-may-cause-mild-side-effects-experts-say-stressing-need-for-education-not-alarm/

I'll pass.  I don't want to take the risk of having a severe side effect, which would be similar to the symptoms you get if you actually get Covid.  The only reason for taking it is to avoid getting a severe case of Covid and if you are unvaccinated, you have a 99.93% chance of not getting a severe case.

======================================

"It also remains unclear if those who have received the [Moderna] vaccine can still spread the virus." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/9/modernas-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know-in-500-words

Thank you, that is one of my questions.  The Moderna vaccine may prevent you from being infected but it may not necessarily prevent you from infecting someone else.  In other words, you may be a asymptomatic carrier.  If it doesn't prevent you from infecting others, then all this talk about herd immunity is pointless.

Pfizer Vaccine

 From https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201210005703/en/

-Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today announced that the New England Journal of Medicine has published safety and final efficacy results from the pivotal Phase 3 trial of BNT162b2, their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate. In the trial of 43,448 participants, who were 16 years and older, 21,720 of whom received BNT162b2 and 21,728 placebo, the two-dose regimen of 30 μg BNT162b2, which was given 21 days apart, was well-tolerated and demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 95% against COVID-19. “These pivotal data demonstrate that our COVID-19 vaccine candidate is highly effective in preventing COVID-19 disease and is generally well-tolerated."

Questions?

1. How many participants who received the vaccine had serious side effects?

To date, an independent, external data monitoring committee has not observed any serious safety concerns, and the data from our Phase 3 study has demonstrated that our COVID-19 candidate vaccine has been well tolerated.

So, no serious side effects among the participants.  That's good.

2. What do you mean "preventing COVID-19"?  Do you mean they don't show symptoms?  Or that they can't be infected by someone who is known to have Covid?  And/or that they are not infectious and won't spread the disease to someone else who is not infected and isn't vaccinated?

They don't answer this.  They do say that 162 case of Covid were in the placebo group and 8 in the vaccinated group.  So, if you don't get vaccinated, there is a 99.25% chance you won't get Covid.  If you do get vaccinated, there is a 99.96% chance you won't get Covid.  I don't see how the 95% efficacy rate is calculated.

There were 10 severe cases of COVID-19 observed in the trial, with nine of the cases occurring in the placebo group and one in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group.

This is the real test.  Who cares about a mild case of Covid - the concern is a severe case of Covid.  So, recalculate.  If you don't get vaccinated, there is a 99.96% (21719/21728) chance that you won't get a severe case of Covid. If you do get vaccinated, there is a 99.995% (21719/21720) that you won't get a severe case of Covid.

So I don't see the harm in taking the Pfizer vaccine, and it will increase your odds of not getting a serious case by a very tiny amount.  It may have a placebo effect - you can believe that you are immune and you can feel superior to people who haven't been vaccinated.  But I don't think it passes the cost/benefit analysis.  These vaccines have to be stored at -70 degrees celsius.  But the government is paying for it, so who cares.

===========================

Update:  COVID-19: Four Pfizer vaccine volunteers develop Bell's palsy

As the United Kingdom started inoculating people with the coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, four volunteers who were administered the vaccine in the trial stage developed Bell's palsy, according to US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulators. Bell's palsy is a form of temporary facial paralysis.

Earlier, the medicine regulator in the UK has advised that people with a history of significant allergic reactions should avoid getting shot of Pfizer vaccine after two people reported adverse effects.

Hmm.  This wasn't mentioned in the press release.  That's because this occurred in the UK not in the US.  Is it the same model of vaccine? 

Yes, the same model - BNT162b2.

Among non-serious unsolicited adverse events, there was a numerical imbalance of four cases of Bell’s palsy in the vaccine group compared with no cases in the placebo group, though the four cases in the vaccine group do not represent a frequency above that expected in the general population.  https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

So Bell's palsy isn't considered a serious adverse event?  I'll pass on the BNT162b2.

==============

Update: The 95% efficacy rate is calculated as (162-8)/162.  In the control group of about 15,000, there were 162 cases.  So they would have expected 162 cases in the vaccinated group but there were only 8 cases.

Misinterpreting Covid testing

3:15.  "Testing positive for Covid doesn't mean you are infectious."  So a positive Covid test is meaningless without knowing the cycle threshold.  I don't know the boundary (25 cycles?), but someone with a lower cycle threshold is much more infectious.

Coronavirus Vaccines - An Introduction

 

This video explains what we already know - that the mRNA vaccine that is being promoted doesn't contain the virus itself but instructions to the cell on how to make the spike protein that the body can then fight and produce antigens against.  So you are attempting to fool the body's immune response to react against anything with a similar spike, even if the "guts" of the cell with the spike are different.

This video makes it sounds really cool and advanced.  But it doesn't answer my concerns which is that the vaccine hasn't been proven to stop Covid infections (all it does is lessen symptoms) so it doesn't really do anything and that the reaction to the vaccine could be severe in some instances.  Also the coronavirus pandemic is overstated so the risk/benefit tradeoff is not there.

So I am interested in anything the sheds light on these 3 issues, to restate: 1) does the coronavirus vaccine actually stop the spread of infection (as opposed to just lessening symptoms), 2) how serious are the possible side-effects, and 3) is the pandemic overstated so it isn't worth the risk of taking the vaccine. 

Also a 4th issue.  Since the vaccines haven't been tested that much, aren't early vaccine-takers just guinea pigs in a study?  It's ok if someone volunteers to be a participant in a widespread study, but its not ok to deceive someone and tell them that if they take a shot they will be immune to the 'rona.  So the ethical issues involved.

Texas v Penn

 Here is the brief filed by the Attorney General of Texas: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/162953/20201207234611533_TX-v-State-Motion-2020-12-07%20FINAL.pdf  . It is 92 pages long.  The issue is:

Whether the Supreme Court should temporarily prevent Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from certifying their 2020 election results because changes to those states' election procedures in light of the COVID-19 pandemic violated the Constitution.

I'm going to read it and see if anything stands out.

====================

Ok, this is a very quick impression.  

1. How does Texas have standing to bring the case?  The brief states:  "The citizens of Plaintiff State have the right to demand that all other States abide by the constitutionally set rules in appointing presidential electors to the electoral college."  That seems weak to me.  How is Texas uniquely injured?  It seems that Trump would be the proper party to be the plaintiff, like in the 2000 Bush v Gore.  The Supreme Court might throw it out just because of this.

2. The facts in 3 of the 4 states seems pretty weak.  They basically complain that more mail-in ballots were for Biden than Trump.  

a. Pennsylvania: Democrats submitted mail-in ballots at more than two times the rate of Republicans. This number of constitutionally tainted ballots far exceeds the approximately 81,660 votes separating the candidates.

b. Georgia: If the rejection rate of mailed-in absentee ballots remained the same in 2020 as it was in 2016, there would be 83,517 less tabulated ballots in 2020. The statewide split of absentee ballots was 34.68% for Trump and 65.2% for Biden. Rejecting at the higher 2016 rate with the 2020 split between Trump and Biden would decrease Trump votes by 28,965 and Biden votes by 54,552, which would be a net gain for Trump of 25,587 votes. This would be more than needed to overcome the Biden advantage of 12,670 votes, and Trump would win by 12,917 votes.

c. Michigan: However, Wayne County made the policy decision to ignore Michigan’s statutory signature verification requirements for absentee ballots. Former Vice President Biden received approximately 587,074, or 68%, of the votes cast there compared to President Trump’s receiving approximate 264,149, or 30.59%, of the total vote.

d. Wisconsin: There are more allegations about Wisconsin, including the unauthorized use of drop boxes, claims about being "indefinitely confined" because of Covid, and the back dating of ballots after election day.

3. This doesn't even address the two main allegations, which are that the "drop and roll" (where vote counting halted and then Biden's total was increased dramatically between 2am and 6am on November 4) was indication of fraud and that the Dominion voting machines can be programmed to manipulate the vote.  

4.  The mention of 1 in a quadrillion comes across as being a sore loser.

The probability of former Vice President Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant States—Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—independently given President Trump’s early lead in those States as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000. For former Vice President Biden to win these four States collectively, the odds of  that event happening decrease to less than one in a quadrillion to the fourth power (i.e., 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000). 

The same less than one in a quadrillion statistical improbability of Mr. Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant States—Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin— independently exists when Mr. Biden’s performance in each of those Defendant States is compared to former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s performance in the 2016 general election and President Trump’s performance in the 2016 and 2020 general elections. Again, the statistical improbability of Mr. Biden winning the popular vote in these four States collectively is 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000.

This reads as: the odds of Biden doing better than Hillary Clinton in those 4 states is highly improbable and a casual observer would read this as stating that the Texas Attorney General thinks it is impossible for more people to vote for Biden than voted for Clinton.  So this comes across as an outrageous claim that backfires.

5. In conclusion, this comes across as a very weak case that is designed to fail.  And then people can point to the fact that it failed as proof that Biden won - "The Supreme Court threw out the case!".  I think there was obvious widespread election fraud.  But this document doesn't address the actual fraud and instead focuses on minutiae like the number of absentee ballots.  I think the Texas Attorney General is a RINO who is backstabbing Trump by bringing a very weak case that he knows is a loser.

But that is my initial impression.  It would be worth reading again and getting other people's opinions. 

Our National Debt Denial

Read:  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/12/our-national-debt-denial/

At some point, bond investors see the end coming, as they did for Greece. If they lend at all, they demand sharply higher interest rates. But if rates rise only to 5 percent, our current $20 trillion debt means an additional $1 trillion deficit. Larger debt makes it worse. Higher interest costs rates feed a deficit which feeds higher rates in a classic “doom loop.” The Fed is powerless to hold rates down, even if it is willing to buy $10 trillion bonds, since people demand the same high rates to hold the Fed’s money. And the Fed cannot end the crisis by raising rates, which only raises interest costs further. The end must come in sharp and sudden inflation or default. And that is a catastrophe. When Washington can no longer borrow, our normal crisis-mitigation policies disappear — the flood of debt relief, bailout, and stimulus that everyone expects — together with our capacity for military or public-health spending to meet the roots of the crisis.  Yes, the U.S. prints its own money and Greece does not. But that fact only means that a crisis may end in sharp inflation rather than chaotic default. And it is not obvious that the U.S. government will choose inflation over default.   

Is not the dollar a “reserve currency,” which foreigners are delighted to hold? Yes, but as with all currencies, foreigners will only hold dollar debt in finite quantity and only so long as they perceive U.S. debt to be super-safe. The opportunity does not scale, and trust, once in doubt, vanishes quickly.

M5 as of Feb 29 2020

I think my M5 is a great metric, and I want to see what it was on Feb 29 and compare it to Nov 30.  Feb 29 is remarkable for being a leap day, but also being the last date before the money supply started soaring.

	As of 2/29/2020:
	M2 (as of 2/24/20) = 15,434.1 (in billions of dollars)
	Public Debt (as of 2/28/20) = 17,413.0
	Fed Held (as of 2/26/20) = -2,474.0
	--------------------------------------
	Total = 30,373.1

The total on 11/30/20 was 35,843.9, so the financial-industrial complex in the US just created $5.4 trillion in cash out of thin air in the last 9 months and promptly spent it.  On an annualized basis (this was a 9 month period), this would be a 24.7% increase.  

A lot of the increase was done in March through May with the pandemic relief.  So maybe you are thinking that this was a one-time thing and things will get back to normal.  But no - this is the new normal.  Once a predator develops a taste for human blood it is time to shoot it.  Once Congress develops a taste for stimulus spending with the money coming out of thin air, it will keep doing it.  And it becomes a predator to the stable financial system and starts killing it.

As I have pointed out, we are on track for a 9.7% annualized increase in the money supply starting with 10/1/20, and that is without any stimulus spending.  Maybe we won't hit 24% this year but we will probably hit at least 12%.  And that is what the inflation rate in this country is.  Maybe it isn't showing up in the fraudulent CPI but it is showing up in the stock market.

Trump signed a secret peace treaty with aliens from the Galactic Federation

This comes from a dubious source, but it might be true.

Space aliens have reached an agreement with the US government to stay mum on the experiments they conduct on Earth — as well as their secret base on Mars — until mankind is ready to accept them, the former head of Israel’s space program claimed in a new interview. “The aliens have asked not to announce that they are here [because] humanity is not ready yet,” Haim Eshed told Israeli paper Yedioth Aharonoth, according to the Jewish Press. “Trump was on the verge of revealing [aliens existence], but the aliens in the Galactic Federation are saying, ‘Wait, let people calm down first,'” Eshed, who helmed Israel’s space security program from 1981 to 2010, reportedly said. “They don’t want to start mass hysteria. They want to first make us sane and understanding.” Until that day, aliens have secured an agreement to keep their moves under wraps, said Eshed, noting that the extraterrestrials come in peace. “They have been waiting for humanity to evolve and reach a stage where we will generally understand what space and spaceships are,” said Eshed, according to the Jewish Press. “There’s an agreement between the US government and the aliens. They signed a contract with us to do experiments here. They, too, are researching and trying to understand the whole fabric of the universe, and they want us as helpers.” One of the hubs of the cooperation is a base on Mars — where, by the way, Eshed claims American astronauts have already set foot. “There’s an underground base in the depths of Mars, where their representatives are, and also our American astronauts,” Eshed reportedly said. https://nypost.com/2020/12/07/aliens-in-hiding-until-mankind-is-ready-ex-israeli-space-head/

If you want to research this further, research Haim Eshed aka Chaim Eshed and click on the link:  https://www.jewishpress.com/news/media/former-head-of-israels-space-program-the-aliens-asked-not-to-be-revealed-humanity-not-yet-ready/2020/12/05/

Here is a Youtube video on it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iScyBvY6e-Y

Did you get your vaccine report card results yet?

 https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/covid-19-vaccination-kit-record-card/index.html

The Department of Defense released the first images of a Covid-19 vaccination record card and vaccination kits Wednesday.  Vaccination cards will be used as the "simplest" way to keep track of Covid-19 shots, said Dr. Kelly Moore, associate director of the Immunization Action Coalition, which is supporting frontline workers who will administer Covid-19 vaccinations.  Initial supplies in the United States will be limited, and the wider population won't have access to vaccines until months into 2021. A CDC panel recommended Tuesday that heath care and long-term care workers get inoculated first. By February, 100 million Americans could be vaccinated against coronavirus, Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser to Operation Warp Speed, said Wednesday.

Question: What if you are skeptical as to the efficacy - are you allowed to opt-out or wait until it has been fully tested?

Answer:  You can opt-out of having the immunization record stored in an IIS (Immunization Information System).  See https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/iis/resources-refs/faq.html . 

But that doesn't answer the question, and I can't find a quick answer to it.  Apparently, you would be able to wait a while.  

A survey by Pew Research found that 60% of people are planning on taking it as soon as it is available.   Of the 40% who don't plan on taking it right away, about half say it is possible they would take it once more information is available and one more information is available.  And the other half (20%) say that they do not plan on getting vaccinated and more information would not change their mind.  

So obviously you can't required to take it.  But there are repercussions - you might be fired from your job, and you might not be able to travel.

I'm concerned that the vaccine doesn't work.  Everything I have seen talks about preventing symptoms, not preventing infections.  So I am in the middle 20%.

Early data on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines suggest both are safe and highly effective, with each preventing 95% of symptomatic infections in the people who have volunteered to test them according to the companies.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/health/cdc-acip-covid-19-vaccine-recommendation-vote/index.html

Who cares about preventing symptoms (mild fever, cough, etc).  What I want to know is will it prevent the spread of infection?  If you can't point to a study that shows that it prevents infection, then I don't see the point in being "vaccinated", especially since the vaccines have side effects.

We all expect an effective vaccine to prevent serious illness if infected. Three of the vaccine protocols—Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca—do not require that their vaccine prevent serious disease only that they prevent moderate symptoms which may be as mild as cough, or headache.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/09/23/covid-19-vaccine-protocols-reveal-that-trials-are-designed-to-succeed/?

The Johnson & Johnson test apparently does expect the vaccine to prevent illness.  (Read their protocol, which I have not read).

So which vaccine is going to be released soon?  The Pfizer and Moderna ones.

I don't really see the harm in getting "vaccinated", except for possible side effects.  And if someone insists that I do it, I probably will.  But I think these are as fake as flu shots (which don't prevent infection, but do have an effect on hospitalization).

========================================

Last month, Pfizer announced that its vaccine – developed along side BioNTech – proved over 90% effective in giving immunity. Although this statistic on its face sounds remarkable, researchers have warned that the clinical trials did not assess whether the vaccine can prevent the virus from spreading.

“We have no knowledge about whether it prevents you from actually acquiring the infection at all,” Dr. Larry Corey, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, told Business Insider.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pfizer-ceo-not-certain-vaccine-will-stop-people-spreading-covid-19

If the vaccine is not going to give you immunity or prevent you from spreading coronavirus, why would you take it?

Hyperinflation is here

 Read: https://financearmageddon.blogspot.com/2020/12/warning-hyperinflation-can-happen.html and watch the video.

The current inflation in the US is between 8 and 12% per year, according to John Williams. This means that about 50% of your savings, pensions, and income have been stolen over the past five years.

Yes, I agree.  I calculated monetary inflation as being 9.7% fiscal year to date.  Monetary inflation is just the rate on increase in the money supply.  It can't be manipulated like CPI can.  That is why the stock market is soaring.

What is the current CPI? The Bureau of Labor Statistics claims it is only 1.2% per year.  There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

See also: http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/12/hyperinflation-or-stagflation-can-occur.html

It was amazing how quickly inflation took root in Germany during the 1920s. Consider how fast it could happen now that we live in an age of instant communication which allows ideas and expectations to rapidly spread. In today's world, many people have developed a false belief in financial stability because of claims by central bankers they have "controlled" inflation to where the economy will grow at a managed pace.

The value of the German mark was relatively stable in June 1921 (at 60 marks per US dollar), and it had about the same value as it did in January 1920.  By November 1921, it had dropped to about 320 or 330 marks per dollar where it stabilized until June 1922.  

Then it started its rapid hyperinflation.  By December 1922, it fell to 8000 marks per dollar.  After that, the value was quickly destroyed and by June 1923, it fell to 1 million marks per dollar and then by November 1923 it fell to 1 trillion marks per dollar and its value was completely destroyed.

So it just took 2 years from relative stability to complete destruction of the currency.

I don't think we are on the same path as Weimar Germany.  But if you take the current inflation rate, and forecast out 30 or 40 years, it is not a pretty sight.

Lin Wood goes full John Galt in Georgia

 John Galt was the character from the Ayn Rand novel Atlas Shrugged, who took the position that when the looters take over, you deprive them of the fruits of your labor and withdraw from society.

Lin Wood has taken the position that Trump supporters should not participate in the Georgia runoff election on Jan 5, 2021, when two US Senators will be voted on.  His reason is that the runoff elections are rigged and so it would be pointless to participate.

Rush Limbaugh pointed out the significance of the Georgia election.  If the Democrats win both seats, they will have 50 votes in the Senate and Kamala Harris will be the tie-breaker.  So they can abolish the Electoral College and have future elections by majority vote, they can admit new states for DC and Puerto Rico, and they can pack the Supreme Court.  There will never be a free election in the country again.

Lin Wood wants to take his ball and go home.  The game is rigged so why play.

Mclnerney says Trump isn't leaving the White House

 You people that have done this are guilty of treason against the United States, and we are going to demand this President. Insist this president not leave office until the American people have had a full disclosure of what’s going on.

Brannon Howse: What you’re saying is that President Trump needs to fulfill his oath, that he took to defend America against enemies, both foreign and domestic, and he must not let deadlines stop him from fulfilling that oath. Is that what I hear you say?

General Mclnerney: That is exactly what you heard me say Brannon. The president has in his oath to the constitution to defend the country against all enemies, foreign and domestic, and we shouldn’t let a schedule that we know is so blatantly flawed that anybody can understand that with just the items I’ve given our listeners tonight.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-11-29-full-transcript-interview-gen-michael-flynn-gen-thomas-mcinerney.html

M5 for November 30

M5 is a measure of money that includes M2, plus debt held by the public, less Treasuries owned by the Fed. Here is the current measure:

As of 11/30/2020:

M2 (as of 11/16/20) = 19,108.3 (in billions of dollars)

Public Debt (as of 11/30/20) = 21,342.2

Fed Held (as of 11/25/20) = -4,606.6

-----------------------------------------------

Total = 35,843.9

On 10/31/20, this was at 35,385.0 and on 9/30/20 it was at 35,296.8.  So it is up 458.9 for the month or 1.3%.  If every month was like this, it would double in 54 months or 4.5 years.  This is an annual inflation rate of 16.7%.  

Year to date, since 9/30/20, it is up 547.1 or 1.55%.  This would double in 91 months or 7.5 years. This is an annual inflation rate of 9.7%.  

This is still too high, so I call it UNSUSTAINABLE.  

Basically, the financial system, which includes the Treasury Department (headed by Steve Mnuchin), the Federal Reserve (headed by Jay Powell), and Wall Street (of which the biggest bank is JPMorgan Chase headed by Jamie Dimon), collectively created $459 billion of cash out of thin air through some hocus-pocus in only one month, the month of November.  This is debt but the debt will never be paid back, so that is essentially free money.

Watch this space.  The numbers will only go up from here at an ever-accelerating pace.

The Exchange Stabilization Fund and fake outrage

 The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) is a slush fund that the Secretary of the Treasury is allowed to use in any way he wants without any oversight by Congress.  It has $682 billion in it, including $500 billion that was allocated to it by the CARES Act in March 2020.

Read: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/12/trump-issued-an-executive-memorandum-giving-mnuchin-a-50-billion-slush-fund-mnuchin-gave-himself-386-billion-more/

Mnuchin asked Jay Powell (the Fed) to give back $455 billion. https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/letter11192020.pdf .  Mnuchin plans on giving that money back to the General Fund of the Treasury, where it can't be spent unless Congress authorizes it.

The independent financial journalists at WallStreetOnParade.com are outraged BOTH that the ESF exists and has so much money in it without supervision AND that Mnuchin is preventing his successor, Janet Yellen from being able to use the slush fund herself.

Make up your mind, WallStreetOnParade.  Is the Exchange Stabilization a good thing or a bad thing?  If it is a bad thing, isn't ending it, or drastically reducing the amount of money in it good?  Or do you just hate Steve Mnuchin and are kicking him while he is walking out the door?

Redacted

 

Source: https://www.dcd.uscourts.gov/sites/dcd/files/20gj35%20Partial%20Unsealing%20Order.pdf

So what is going on here?  It is something about whether the attorney-client privilege was waived in a bribery-for-Presidential-pardon scheme.  The president is obviously Trump.  Who is attempting to get the pardon?  Unknown.  We do know that the Department of Justice (FBI?) raided an office (apparently an attorney's office) and seized about 50 digital devices, including iPhones, laptops and USB thumb drives.  The government claims that these are not protected by attorney-client privilege because all of them were viewed by someone who was not an attorney.  The DOJ is trying to decide whether to charge someone with a crime, and they want the information sealed because no one has been charged yet.

See also https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/politics/presidential-pardon-justice-department/index.html

I just think it is weird seeing page after page of fully redacted lines.

Gen. Flynn thinks Trump is still going to win

 This is from an interview with General Michael Flynn on Nov. 28:

I say all that and on one hand and the other hand as I just described, we have clear paths to victory for this President. Frankly, he’s going win Pennsylvania. He’s going to win Arizona. He’s going to win Georgia. He’s going to win Nevada. He’s going to win Michigan. The other one that he’s probably going to pull in is Wisconsin too, because there’s a discrepancy in Wisconsin of 130,000 vigilant ballots that they just found, they just discovered. There’s a lot of things happening and it’s all, to me, it’s all positive. I was asked today on a scale of 1 to 10, who will be the next President, and I said, 10 it’ll be Donald Trump. It’ll be president Trump. There’s no doubt in my mind that he won this election hands down in a landslide, probably somewhere between 350 and 400 electoral college votes.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-11-29-full-transcript-interview-gen-michael-flynn-gen-thomas-mcinerney.html

The source is NaturalNews.com so I don't know if it is reliable or not.

Civil War between Army Special Forces and CIA in Germany

 I heard this on the radio this morning and it sounds totally bizarre.  I didn't hear the full story, but it sounds like the Special Forces raided a CIA base in Frankfurt that was involved in hacking the election computers, and there were some casualties (deaths). 

Here is another report on it:

As you know by now, the DoD launched a raid on a CIA-run server farm in Frankfurt, Germany, to secure servers that contain proof of CIA interference with the 2020 election (i.e. backdoor manipulations of election results via Dominion voting machines). But new information is now surfacing that indicates there was a firefight at the server farm facility, involving US Army Special Forces units, engaging with CIA-trained paramilitary units that were flown in from Afghanistan in an emergency effort to defend the facility.

One CIA officer was killed during the firefight, and he is now being reported across the mainstream media as being “killed in Somalia.” Five US Army soldiers were also killed, and they are being explained away as dying in a “helicopter crash” in Egypt.

Despite the deaths, the servers were successfully acquired by the DoD, and those servers were turned over to President Trump’s private intelligence group, which is now once again led by Gen. Michael Flynn, recently pardoned and now allowed to process top secret information, since his security clearance has been restored. https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-11-27-situation-update-nov-27th-dod-vs-cia-covert-war.html

I don't consider NaturalNews to be a reliable source, so I am looking for other confirmation.

==================================

Here is another source: https://gellerreport.com/2020/11/lt-gen-mcinerney-us-special-forces-attacked-cia-server-farm-in-germany-in-server-seizure-operation-5-soldiers-killed-servers-secured.html/

This links to: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/11/new_reports_about_election_manipulation_read_like_a_tom_clancy_novel.html

In this post, I’ll sum up the most recent reports about events in Germany, although without taking any stand as to their veracity because I can’t take a stand. I don’t know enough.

For several days, rumors have swirled that there was a “military” raid in Germany, either against Scytl (the Spanish company that processes American voting data in a facility in Frankfurt, Germany) or against a CIA station that is also located in Germany. On Friday, those rumors coalesced into an affirmative report about the CIA station in Germany.

Mike Adams, who writes at Natural News (which I once thought was a health food newsletter, not a conservative internet news outlet), dropped a bombshell, claiming there was a deadly firefight in Frankfurt between special forces and CIA operatives:

So that links back to Natural News.

============================

But here is something else that is interesting, even if Mike Adams made up the story about the raid:

A top secret CIA unit used the German city of Frankfurt am Main as the starting point for numerous hacking attacks on Europe, China and the Middle East.“ A German newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, reported “the building was known to be home to a vast network of intelligence personnel including CIA agents, NSA spies, military secret service personnel, Department of Homeland Security employees and Secret Service employees.” It reported “the Americans had also established a dense network of outposts and shell companies in Frankfurt.“  https://cleverjourneys.com/2020/11/14/secret-germany-raid-reveals-cia-ties-to-us-election-fraud/

Interesting. The CIA runs a cyberwarfare unit out of Frankfurt.  I wonder how the Germans feel about that.

Trump effectively concedes, and the party is over

In what is the closest words yet to a concession, President Trump agreed to let GSA proceed with the Biden administration transition. In a pair of tweets, Trump noted: "I want to thank Emily Murphy at GSA for her steadfast dedication and loyalty to our Country. She has been harassed, threatened, and abused – and I do not want to see this happen to her, her family, or employees of GSA." Trump added that while the election litigation battle continues... "Our case STRONGLY continues, we will keep up the good fight, and I believe we will prevail!" ... He will allow the transition to proceed: "Nevertheless, in the best interest of our Country, I am recommending that Emily and her team do what needs to be done with regard to initial protocols, and have told my team to do the same."

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-tells-gsa-allow-biden-transition-proceed-best-interest-our-country

So the wild dance party is over, but the cleanup remains.  And I am not interested in covering the details of putting the chairs away and taking out the trash.

What a horrible election.  Everybody involved should be totally embarrassed.  Congress needs to make a special committee to analyze what happened and to make recommendations.  They need to have a forum for Sidney Powell and the evidence she has about Dominion.  And to pass a uniform law about absentee ballots, mailing them, gathering them, matching signatures, the dates they need to be received.  And a uniform law about registration - same-day voter registration should not be allowed, and removing old registration, so ballots don't get forwarded out of state.  And open up the electronic voting systems to bid, and have requirements about backdoors and security, and internet access.  And have a paper trail.  And have rules about auditing elections.  And have a way for people to verify their vote while remaining anonymous - maybe give them a 128-bit number after they vote that they can enter on to a website later to verify their vote.

Our current system allows for cheating, and so you can't blame the winner for being good at cheating.  Donald Trump didn't realize that.

Joe Biden will be the next president, but he has no reason to celebrate.  There should be some way he can "purge" himself, by admitting the election fraud, without admitting any criminal behavior.  He has no mandate, and he should be very gracious to the losers, which he has been so far.   Biden is only a figurehead, a hologram, a mascot, he is compromised and a reliable tool of the deep state.

Donald Trump was the moral winner here.  He had a very successful presidency until the coronavirus pandemic.  Unfortunately, he was tainted by the actions of Rudy Giuliani.  But he can ride off into the sunset as a legend.

The mainstream media (CNN,CBS etc) and the social media giants (Facebook and Twitter) are despicable.  It is outrageous the way they censor information they don't like.

This was the last election.  Voting doesn't matter, what matters is who counts the vote.  America is over.  The Deep State is in control.  I love Big Brother.  I'm not bitter, just realistic. 

Here Is The Evidence Dot Com

 https://hereistheevidence.com/  

This is a list of approximately 600 items of voting irregularities.

The problem with a list like this is that no one wants to wade through the list.  What is the strongest argument?  I don't have time to look through the list right now and evaluate the claims, maybe later.  Even if some of these items are credible, will they change the results of the election in a single state?

Anyways, this is worth looking at.

Giuliani embarasses himself in Pennsylvania

 See: https://www.vox.com/2020/11/22/21589195/trump-rudy-giuliani-judge-matthew-brann-incompetence-boockvar-pennsylvania

Judicial opinions are typically staid documents that avoid direct criticism of legal advocates — both as a professional courtesy and because judges typically want to avoid giving the impression that their disregard for a particular lawyer may have influenced their decision. But Judge Brann clearly believes that Trump’s lawyers behaved egregiously in his courtroom, and that this conduct is worth noting repeatedly in his opinion.

Early in his opinion, Brann summarizes the lawsuit in ten damning words: “Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters.” The mere fact that Trump’s lawyers would even request such a thing is audacious. As Brann notes, “this Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated.”

And yet, Trump’s lawyers did not come to court with any evidence or legal authorities that could justify such a result. “One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption,” Brann writes. But “that has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence.”

The case is: Donald J. Trump for President v. Boockvar.

I like Rudy Giulianai and I wish him well.  He was a national hero on 9/11.  But he basically pooped his pants in the courtroom and had the judge comment on the smell.  That is how bad it was.  Giuiliani, unfortunately, has disgraced himself.  He needs to resign from the legal team and stop giving press conferences.

Tucker calls out Sidney Powell's lack of evidence

 

Watch it.

This is huge.  Tucker Carlson says that Sidney Powell made some huge claims that she has provided no evidence for.  If what she says is true, then this is the biggest crime of all time - some 8 million votes were flipped from Trump to Biden.  Has she gone completely insane and lost all credibility?

This is a huge turning point.  Either Sidney provides evidence to back up her claims - let's give her a week to file something in court - or she is a blathering idiot.  No forget that, she has until the end of the day on Wednesday November 25, to make her case.

It seems likely that the entire Trump legal team has gone insane - Giuliani, Powell, Alan Dershowitz.  The Republican party is splitting in two between the Tucker Carlson wing and the Sidney Powell / Trump /  MAGA crowd.

======================

Update: 11/23/20

The Trump campaign has cut ties with Sidney Powell because of her unsupported claims of voter fraud.

What is Sidney Powell's opinion?

Attorney Sidney Powell

In this post, I want to know what Sidney is alleging, but I won't critique it at this time.  What is she saying about the election?

This is actually a difficult question to answer because I don't want to spend time watching a video of her press conferences, and the media isn't accurately reporting her.  And I don't have a lot of time right now to research this.

It seems like her main claim is that the Dominion voting system is designed to enable election results to be manipulated:

"The math just doesn't add up for anything and we know Dominion has a long history of rigging elections, because that's what it was created to do to begin with," Powell told Tuesday's "Greg Kelly Reports," noting even the "founder of the company admits he can change a million votes, no problem at all." "So don't tell me there's no evidence of fraud," she continued. "We've got increasingly mounting evidence of significant fraud across multiple states that casts into question the validity of elections in every swing state."  It is not just limited to Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia either, she said. adding "it went beyond that, too."  https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/sidney-powell-dominion-voting-systems/2020/11/17/id/997526/

Quick question:  Which states use the Dominion voting system?  According to their website, 28 states use the Dominion system including: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Viginia, Pennsylvania and Texas.  North Carolina does not.

So if what she is saying is true, then the elections in all 28 states must be thrown out.  Is that a fair implication of what she is saying?

Before dismissing her opinion because of this, let's look at the actual claims about the Dominion machines and Dominion's response.

Are we there yet?

Is the first phase of the election (the vote counting) over?  This usually occurs within a day of the election, so this is an unusual question.  And unfortunately we can't trust the media to give us the results instead of their projections as to what the results will be.  The AP has zero credibility.  

The last time I checked, these states still had not finished: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.  Here are the results from the state secretary of state pages.

• Michigan: Biden 2,804,039 to Trump 2,649,852. I don't know if it is certified, but they are done counting.  
• Nevada: Biden 703,486 to Trump 669,890 
• Pennsylvania: Biden 3,454,093 to Trump 3,372,952 
• Wisconsin:  I can not find any official election results from the state.  There are plenty of news sources that have opinions on this but I don't know what their sources are.
• Georgia:  I saved this for last.  Biden 2,474,420 to Trump 2,461,833

So we are complete except for Wisconsin.  I will try to look a little harder for the results there.  So first go to their election results page: https://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results .  The results are not listed, and apparently won't be until the next meeting of the Wisconsin Elections Commission on December 1.

What's the deal with Wisconsin? Has anyone else noticed the problem?

RealClearPolitics.com says the vote in Wisconsin is 100% done and these are the totals:  Biden 1,630,673 to Trump 1,610,065.  I don't know where they are getting their numbers from but they seem credible.

So yes, the first phase of the election nightmare is over.  To no one's surprise, Biden is the tentative winner.

Next up, I will look at the recounts and lawsuits challenging the election.

Drop and Roll

 

Source: https://rumble.com/vb8ksn-drop-and-roll-how-the-2020-election-was-stolen-from-donald-trump.html

Click on the link to watch the video.

Note: I am not necessarily advocating for this video; instead I am just putting it out there as something to watch.  You won't be able to see this on Facebook or YouTube and I don't believe in censorship.

It presents pretty definitive proof (assuming the numbers they present are accurate) that the election was stolen in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia.  

Is there a response to this?  If so, I will post it.

Election Audits

Source: https://coloradosun.com/2020/11/16/2020-election-risk-limiting-audit-colorado/

Colorado does a risk-limiting audit after each election and the results are due this year by Nov. 24.  A risk-limiting audit is " a procedure that compares votes on paper ballots with results collected by vote-counting machines to scan for discrepancies and correct erroneous tabulations." 

The only other states that have similar procedures are Virginia and Rhode Island.  

There are other types of post-election audits as well.  34 states do some kind of post-election audit.

Which states don't and are very vulnerable to election fraud?  Let's name them.  (I am not implying that any election fraud occurred in these states.)  

Here is the list of states that don't do any kind of post-election audit:

Alabama

Louisiana

Maine

Mississippi

New Hampshire

South Dakota

Here is the list that do an "other" type, implying that it is deficient in some way, or it may be discretionary or only done in limited circumstances:

Idaho

Indiana

Nebraska

North Dakota

South Carolina

Wyoming

Note that none of the swing states this year are on the list, meaning that they all will do some kind of post-election audit.  I sure would like to read the audit reports when they are available.  I will update this if I find out more information.