Projected Medicare Expenditures through 2060

 This is an attempt to project Medicare expenditures through 2060.  I am basing it on my latest projection in the post Crisis in 2052.  I take the Medicare expenditures as a percent of GDP from the 2020 Medicare Trustees Report in Table V.B2.  Here is what I come up with:

		Projected	CBO		Medicare
Year	GDP	Health	Medicare	Medicare %	Expend
2019	21,220	1,258
2020	20,649	1,399	862	3.85%	800
2021	20,997	1,419	810	3.95%	800
2022	22,077	1,559	973	4.06%	900
2023	22,975	1,578	1,013	4.19%	1,000
2024	23,956	1,625	1,036	4.32%	1,000
2025	25,010	1,776	1,158	4.45%	1,100
2026	26,130	1,890	1,240	4.58%	1,200
2027	27,287	2,011	1,328	4.71%	1,300
2028	28,462	2,209	1,491	4.84%	1,400
2029	29,591	2,207	1,450	4.94%	1,500
2030	30,732	2,411	1,611	5.17%	1,600
2031	32,300	2,615		5.27%	1,700
2032	33,900	2,819		5.37%	1,800
2033	35,600	3,023		5.47%	1,900
2034	37,400	3,227		5.57%	2,100
2035	39,300	3,431		5.66%	2,200
2036	41,300	3,635		5.72%	2,400
2037	43,000	3,839		5.78%	2,500
2038	44,900	4,043		5.84%	2,600
2039	46,800	4,247		5.89%	2,800
2040	48,800	4,451		5.94%	2,900
2041	50,900	4,629		5.96%	3,000
2042	53,100	4,814		5.98%	3,200
2043	55,800	5,007		6.00%	3,300
2044	58,600	5,207		6.02%	3,500
2045	61,500	5,415		6.04%	3,700
2046	64,600	5,632		6.04%	3,900
2047	67,800	5,857		6.05%	4,100
2048	71,200	6,092		6.05%	4,300
2049	74,800	6,335		6.06%	4,500
2050	78,500	6,589		6.06%	4,800
2051	82,400	6,852		6.07%	5,000
2052	86,500	7,126		6.08%	5,300
2053	90,800	7,411		6.09%	5,500
2054	95,300	7,708		6.10%	5,800
2055	100,100	8,016		6.10%	6,100
2056	105,100	8,337		6.12%	6,400
2057	110,400	8,670		6.14%	6,800
2058	115,900	9,017		6.15%	7,100
2059	121,700	9,378		6.16%	7,500
2060	127,800	9,753		6.17%	7,900

The column titled Projected Health is the total projected health spending that year including Medicare, Medicaid, health tax credits, and children's health.  The last column titled Medicare Expend is just the Medicare portion.  

Note that the HI Trust Fund will be depleted in 2026, so any projection after that is speculative.  Probably the spending will just continue and be funded from general revenues, which means it will be borrowed.  And then it is hard to see how that can continue after 2052.