Crisis in 2052

 Here is my latest long-range forecast of the country's projected financial situation.  The primary source for this is the 2020 CBO forecast, available at https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-09/56517-Budget-Outlook.pdf.   This is a projection through 2030, and I just extended each of the lines.  Assuming a breaking point when the public debt exceeds 150% of GDP, I forecast that the system can muddle through until 2052.  This is actually an improvement over last year's forecast, which showed a breaking point in 2047.

However, I want to point out a "cheat" I did to make this appear perhaps better than it should be.  I am forecasting that GDP will increase by 5% every year after 2031 (without any recessions), but I am forecasting that revenues and most expenses will increase by only 4% per year.  Note that the Social Security Administration is actually forecasting much higher GDP growth than this.

					Other			Total			Public		Debt %
Year	Revenues		Soc Sec	Health	Mand	Discret	Interest	Outlays		Deficit	Debt	GDP	of GDP
2019	3,463		1,038	1,258	438	1,338	375	4,447		-984	16,801	21,220	79.2%
2020	3,296		1,091	1,399	2,127	1,651	338	6,606		-3,310	20,270	20,649	98.2%
2021	3,256		1,142	1,419	622	1,593	290	5,066		-1,810	21,931	20,997	104.4%
2022	3,739		1,201	1,559	514	1,528	273	5,075		-1,336	23,320	22,077	105.6%
2023	3,980		1,268	1,578	467	1,520	271	5,104		-1,124	24,520	22,975	106.7%
2024	4,146		1,341	1,625	444	1,542	274	5,226		-1,080	25,657	23,956	107.1%
2025	4,334		1,417	1,776	447	1,580	287	5,507		-1,173	26,818	25,010	107.2%
2026	4,656		1,496	1,890	457	1,613	316	5,772		-1,116	27,888	26,130	106.7%
2027	4,952		1,575	2,011	429	1,651	367	6,033		-1,081	28,993	27,287	106.3%
2028	5,123		1,660	2,209	446	1,693	448	6,456		-1,333	30,396	28,462	106.8%
2029	5,296		1,746	2,207	381	1,722	546	6,602		-1,306	31,773	29,591	107.4%
2030	5,457		1,835	2,411	406	1,768	664	7,084		-1,627	33,457	30,732	108.9%
2031	5,675		1,991	2,615	431	1,814	730	7,581		-1,906	35,363	32,300	109.5%
2032	5,902		2,147	2,819	456	1,860	803	8,085		-2,183	37,546	33,900	110.8%
2033	6,138		2,303	3,023	481	1,906	883	8,596		-2,458	40,004	35,600	112.4%
2034	6,384		2,459	3,227	506	1,952	971	9,115		-2,731	42,735	37,400	114.3%
2035	6,639		2,616	3,431	531	1,998	1,068	9,644		-3,005	45,740	39,300	116.4%
2036	6,905		2,748	3,635	556	2,044	1,144	10,127		-3,222	48,962	41,300	118.6%
2037	7,181		2,887	3,839	581	2,090	1,224	10,621		-3,440	52,402	43,000	121.9%
2038	7,468		3,031	4,043	606	2,136	1,310	11,126		-3,658	56,060	44,900	124.9%
2039	7,767		3,180	4,247	631	2,182	1,401	11,641		-3,874	59,934	46,800	128.1%
2040	8,078		3,335	4,451	656	2,228	1,498	12,168		-4,090	64,024	48,800	131.2%
2041	8,401		3,495	4,629	681	2,274	1,601	12,680		-4,279	68,303	50,900	134.2%
2042	8,737		3,662	4,814	706	2,320	1,708	13,210		-4,473	72,776	53,100	137.1%
2043	9,086		3,837	5,007	731	2,366	1,819	13,760		-4,674	77,450	55,800	138.8%
2044	9,449		4,020	5,207	756	2,412	1,936	14,331		-4,882	82,332	58,600	140.5%
2045	9,827		4,214	5,415	781	2,458	2,058	14,927		-5,100	87,432	61,500	142.2%
2046	10,220		4,419	5,632	806	2,504	2,186	15,547		-5,327	92,759	64,600	143.6%
2047	10,629		4,638	5,857	831	2,550	2,319	16,195		-5,566	98,325	67,800	145.0%
2048	11,054		4,872	6,092	856	2,596	2,458	16,874		-5,820	104,144	71,200	146.3%
2049	11,496		5,120	6,335	881	2,642	2,604	17,582		-6,086	110,230	74,800	147.4%
2050	11,956		5,384	6,589	906	2,688	2,756	18,322		-6,366	116,597	78,500	148.5%
2051	12,434		5,665	6,852	942	2,796	2,915	19,170		-6,736	123,332	82,400	149.7%
2052	12,931		5,965	7,126	980	2,907	3,083	20,062		-7,131	130,463	86,500	150.8%
2053	13,448		6,284	7,411	1,019	3,024	3,262	21,000		-7,552	138,015	90,800	152.0%
2054	13,986		6,622	7,708	1,060	3,145	3,450	21,985		-7,999	146,013	95,300	153.2%
2055	14,545		6,982	8,016	1,102	3,270	3,650	23,021		-8,476	154,489	100,100	154.3%
2056	15,127		7,364	8,337	1,146	3,401	3,862	24,110		-8,983	163,473	105,100	155.5%
2057	15,732		7,769	8,670	1,192	3,537	4,087	25,255		-9,523	172,996	110,400	156.7%
2058	16,361		8,200	9,017	1,240	3,679	4,325	26,460		-10,099	183,095	115,900	158.0%
2059	17,015		8,654	9,378	1,290	3,826	4,577	27,724		-10,709	193,805	121,700	159.2%
2060	17,696		9,135	9,753	1,341	3,979	4,845	29,053		-11,357	205,162	127,800	160.5%

This shows that Debt Held by the Public will first exceed $50 trillion in 2037.  This is the same exact year that I predicted last year.  And then it will hit $100 trillion in 2048.

So even though we have had a horrible recession, the long-range forecast isn't that different.  Which makes sense, because a minor short-term change won't really effect the long run.