Some people think Trump will win in Michigan. If this is accurate, (I went on Nate Silver's projection and only clicked on two states, Florida and Michigan for Trump to win), then Trump has a 95% chance of winning (because Trump would then also win Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota).
I think FiveThirtyEight.com is too cocky and overdoes the correlations. They are overstating Biden's chances now and they are also overstating the correlation effect.
So revised forecast. Trump has a 50% chance of winning each of Florida, Michigan and Arizona, which gives him a 12.5% chance overall of winning. Actually FiveThirtyEight says Trump's odds are 10%, so that's pretty close. Anyways I think this will be the map the day after the election.
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