Monday, October 5, 2020

Debt could reach 245% of GDP by 2050

 Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which shows the federal budget is on an unsustainable long-term trajectory. Overall, the situation is much worse than the agency’s 2019 pre-pandemic projections. CBO’s report shows: 

  • Debt Will Nearly Double the Size of the Economy By 2050. Under current law, CBO projects federal debt held by the public will rise from 79 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 to 195 percent by 2050. Under a more realistic scenario, we estimate debt could reach 245 percent of GDP by 2050.
http://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-2020-long-term-budget-outlook

I don't think debt will be that high by 2050.  My last projection was 153% of GDP by 2050.  It is obvious that the long-term trajectory is unsustainable.

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