Contested Election Very Likely

Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259. Still, the margin of victory would be within 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results. In addition, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, likely resulting in a bitter post-election night fight and contested outcomes.  In short, no matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-result-if-polls-are-wrong-2020-they-were-2016

We know that if Trump apparently wins on election day that Biden will not concede without a recount and same thing for Trump.  So there is probably an 80% of a contested election, similar in some ways to 2000, and we won't know the winner until December 14, when the electoral college votes.

According to this, expect recounts in Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Florida.  And probably Michigan and Arizona as well.  So that is 6 states where the election will be fought in the courtroom and it will almost certainly go up to the Supreme Court. Will Amy Cony Barrett (the notorious ACB) recuse herself?  Don't bet on it. 

Will there be riots?  Absolutely.  The riots this summer were just previews.  I don't know why they would riot in Portland, but the Antifa are idiots.  

I really hope that the winner is declared on election night, but I think there is only 20% chance of that happening.

Oh by the way if there is a contested election, I think Trump will be the winner.  Let's say 60% chance that Trump wins in the courts. The Republicans are smarter when it comes to the courtroom and they have the majority in the Supreme Court.

So my new forecast is a 48% chance of Trump winning.  Biden's best bet is a sweep on election night because if he doesn't win on election night, I think the odds are that he loses in the end.

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Update: There is also the possibility of a tie 269-269 if Biden wins Michigan and Trump wins Arizona and Wisconsin.  In which case Trump wins.