Nate Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight.com, thinks that this is the most likely outcome on November 3:
He thinks that the electoral map will look like this:
I think he is completely delusional. I am screenshotting this so I can laugh about how wrong he is on November 4. I think most of the light blue states on that map will be red.
If Biden's map looks anywhere near this, then we will know by midnight on election day tomorrow and certainly by Wednesday morning at 8 AM, and I will eat crow. I think there is a 20% chance of Biden having a clear victory on election day.
As I said, the most likely result is complete confusion and chaos with no clear winner, and warnings to wait until EVERY SINGLE VOTE HAS COUNTED, which will take at least another week, and then the riots and the court challenges will begin. In this scenario, Trump has a 60% chance of winning.
No comments:
Post a Comment