Thursday, November 12, 2020

The October 2020 deficit was $284 billion

 The government recorded a deficit of $284 billion in October, CBO estimates, $149 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Revenues fell by $8 billion (or 3 percent), largely because of a decline in collections of individual income taxes. Outlays this October were $141 billion (or 37 percent) higher than in the same month last year because of greater spending for many government programs, in part driven by the government’s response to the pandemic.  https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-11/56746-MBR.pdf

This doesn't seem like a shocking number, but if every month had a $284 billion deficit, that is $3.4 trillion.  This is more than the $3.1 trillion deficit for FY 2020. 

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Update:  If the government had a deficit of $284 billion, but M5 only increased by $88 billion, then where did the extra cash come from?  From its savings account at the Fed.

On 9/30/20, Treasury had $1,782 billion in its account.

On 10/30/20, Treasury had $1,599 billion in its account.

So its cash decreased by $183 billion during October.

Question: Is cash that the Treasury has in its Fed account inflationary?  Obviously not.  So maybe I should have a new measure, call it M6, which is M5 less the Treasury cash.  This would give you the total of cash that is "in the wild", excluding both Fed holdings of Treasury bonds and Treasury cash stored at the Fed.  And if this number increases while GDP decreases, this would obviously be inflationary because you have more cash chasing fewer goods.

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