Friday, October 9, 2020

Trump could still win


 Read: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/poll-which-correctly-called-2016-election-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november

Here is how:  1. Assume Trump wins Florida, Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina and Biden wins all the votes in Maine.  In Nebraska, Biden gets 1 and Trump gets 4.

2.  Look at the following 5 swing states:  Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  Whoever wins 3 of those will win. (The article only mentions Michigan and Pennsylvania).  Here are some possible combinations, but I can't go through all of them:

  • Trump wins Ohio, Biden takes the other 4 => Biden 291, Trump 247
  • Trump wins Arizona and Ohio, Biden takes the other 3 => Biden 280, Trump 258
  • Trump wins Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania => Trump 278, Biden 260
  • Trump wins Arizona, Ohio and Michigan => Trump 274, Biden 264
  • Trump wins Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin => Biden 270, Trump 268.  This is the exception - it isn't a winning combination.  However, if Trump could get one more vote in Nebraska or Maine, then it would be a tie and Trump would win because he would win in the House. 

So what do the polls say in these 5 states?
I've never heard of Trafalgar before today and I have no idea if they are on to something, but if I were a Biden campaign strategist I would do some research.

So based on this new information, what are the odds that Trump will win?  It is highly likely that Biden will win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  So let's simply this:  Trump must win all 3 of the remaining states.  I think he may win in Arizona and Ohio.  So it all comes down to Michigan, where Biden is slightly ahead.

So my feeling is that there is a 45% chance Trump could win.  This race is way closer than the polls indicate.  It could come down to a few thousand people in Michigan.

See also my prior forecast: Sleepy Joe is going to win.

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Update (Oct 14):
The latest polls show that Biden is favored to win Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump may be able to win Ohio.  As noted above, he must win 2 of the 4 that the pundits have said leans for Biden.  The most likely outcome at the moment is Biden 290 to Trump 248 (assuming Trump wins Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and the weird 2nd district of Maine).  Trump may be able to win Arizona, but that wouldn't be sufficient, he would still need one more state.

So what I am saying is, that Trump must win both Arizona and Michigan.  I would guess his odds of winning Arizona are 46%, (which is the middle of the 7 polls taken - compared to Biden 48%), and his odds of winning Michigan are 42% (compared to Biden with 50%).  So I am sure this is not statistically correct, but I give Trump a 39% chance of winning (0.46/0.5 * 0.42/0.5 * .5).  The race is down to a few thousand people in Michigan and a few thousand people in Arizona.

According to this scenario, Trump must win in [Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina] and at least 3 of the set of [Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin].

However, it should be noted that Biden is ahead (at least slightly) in an average of the polls in each of the states of  Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa, and Ohio.
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FiveThirtyEight.com puts the odds of Trump winning at only 13%.  It says that the must-win states for Trump, from those listed above are: [Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Arizona].  The possible-win states for Trump are: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada.  Possible combinations are: Pennsylvania OR Michigan OR Minnesota OR Wisconsin OR Colorado + another state OR Nevada + another state.

To restate, to make it comparable to the above, Trump must win in [Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Arizona], and at least one of [Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado+Nevada].  This is really almost saying the same thing as above, but it adds Minnesota to the list of possible swing states, which however, I consider unlikely.

Or to state if differently, if Biden wins Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and either Colorado or Nevada, he gets 269 votes, and the rest of the states don't matter.  Of those states, Trump's best bet is Michigan.  If Trump wins Michigan and lots of other things go his way, he wins.  But, Biden can block this with the trifecta of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

To go back to my analysis above, if Trump wins both Arizona and Michigan, (and lets add Florida and Ohio to that as well, and I guess Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa to make it complete), then he has it.  Let's call these the 4 must-win states for Trump.  If Trump's odds are 46% in Arizona, 42% in Michigan, 46% in Florida, 47% in Ohio, 49% in Georgia, 46% in North Carolina, and 49% Iowa, then using the same probably-flawed formula as above, his odds are 30%.  

So that's my revised analysis of the race.  Trump's odds of winning are 30%.  To do so, Trump must win in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Ohio, (as well as Georgia, North Carolina and Iowa).  That's a lot better than 13%.


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