Tuesday, July 2, 2024

What is the maximum sustainable public debt ratio?

The “maximum sustainable debt level” is the level beyond which a debt distress event is likely or inevitable.  For Advanced Economies, median estimates range from 80 to 192 percent of GDP, while for Emerging Markets the range is 35 to 77 percent of GDP.   The results for the maximum sustainable public debt ratio based on historical market interest rates indicate a median of 192 percent, while that based on projected interest rates gives a median debt of 183 percent.   https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/080511.pdf

Comment:  I have done numerous estimates of when the economy would collapse, based on my projections.  I have used 150% of public debt to GDP ratio as the maximum.  The IMF has done their own study about this question, and they think an advanced economy could maintain a public debt ratio of up to 192%.  For example, Japan has exceeded this, (but they have some advantages that other advanced economies don't).  So maybe I should use a higher percent before forecasting imminent danger.

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