Saturday, July 13, 2024

Projected GDP

 My source for this is the latest 10-year Economic Projection (from June 2024).  This is their data through 2034, except I rounded it to the nearest 100 billion.  They are using 3.8% as a long term growth factor, so after 2034, the numbers increase each year that.  This only runs through 2054 because it is pointless to project out further, even though it is fun to do so.  You could plug these numbers into my deficit forecasting model, since most of those are based on percents of GDP.


2024	28,500
2025	29,700
2026	30,900
2027	32,000
2028	33,100
2029	34,300
2030	35,700
2031	37,000
2032	38,400
2033	39,900
2034	41,400
2035	43,000
2036	44,600
2037	46,300
2038	48,100
2039	49,900
2040	51,800
2041	53,800
2042	55,800
2043	57,900
2044	60,100
2045	62,400
2046	64,800
2047	67,300
2048	69,900
2049	72,600
2050	75,400
2051	78,300
2052	81,300
2053	84,400
2054	87,600
See also https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/01/projected-nominal-gdp-through-2100.html for a more optimistic forecast.

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