Tuesday, December 10, 2024

The November 2024 deficit was $365 billion

The federal government incurred a deficit of $365 billion in November 2024, CBO estimates—$51 billion more than the deficit recorded last November. The federal budget deficit totaled $622 billion in October and November 2024, the first two months of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $242 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $191 billion (or 18 percent) higher, and revenues were $50 billion (or 7 percent) lower.  https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60844/html

Net interest YTD was $163 billion, and since October interest was $80 billion, November interest was $83 billion.  Compare this to November 2023 when interest was $77 billion.  This is an increase of 8%.

The national debt as of 11/30/24 was $36.1 trillion compared to $33.9 trillion as of 11/30/23, so this is 6.5% higher.

The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $210.97 billion as of 11/27/24.  See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW .  This is up from $207 billion as of 10/30/24,  so it increased $3.97 billion for the month. This is a slower rate of increase than the past, when this averaged about $7 billion per month.

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Medicare spending is way up.  YTD Medicare is $205 billion, up from $102 billion in the same period in fiscal year 2024.  The government now spend more on Medicare than defense or on net interest on the debt.  There is no explanation of why this has increased 100% from last year.

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The $622 billion YTD deficit is the worst it has ever been including the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.  See https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/government-spending-shock-us-budget-deficit-worst-start-year-record

I think the Biden administration is trying to go out with a bang and spend as much money as possible before the cops (Trump and Musk) show up and end the party.

See also: https://confoundedinterest.net/2024/12/12/biden-boogie-bidens-final-punch-in-the-jaw-greatest-fiscal-deficit-to-start-the-year-in-history-largest-debt-load-interest-expense-now-exceeds-social-security/

This has a couple of cool charts showing that FY 2025 is starting off much worse than even 2020 and 2021.  Just to compare, the FY 2020 deficit was $3.132 trillion, and the FY 2021 deficit was $2.770 trillion.  

Will FY 2025 be higher than both of those?  Probably not, this is just the revenge of the bitter a-hole bureaucrats who hate America on their way out the door.  But if there is a recession and tax revenue slows down, then this could be the worst year, fiscally speaking, in US history.

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