Later today, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% so they are in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Nobody else is commenting on how they are following a pattern from almost exactly 17 years ago.
I'm no Nostradamus but I saw the 17 year cycle coming. In a post I wrote on Feb 26, 2024, I wrote about the 17 year cycle, predicting the rate cut on Sept 18, 2024. The Fed has been following a script since September 2022 to present.
This can not be a coincidence. Even the length of the plateau is almost exactly the same (447 days in 2006-2007 and 452 days in 2023-2024).
Just don't ask what happens next, it is scary. In case you are too young, or forgot, look up the Great Recession. (A recession officially, in retrospect, began on December 1, 2007). I don't think we are in a recession now, but I think one will start right about the time that Trump takes office. I think the Federal Reserve is playing with some black magic, and they are aligning the stars and comets to insure that Trump will face the mother of all financial crises as soon as he is inaugurated.
What do I think will happen next? Well, if you read your history, the Fed did an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 22, 2008. I think history will repeat almost exactly, so look for an emergency rate cut of -75 on Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025. I hope nothing happens but I fear that something really bad is about to happen in the next month. I don't know what would make the Fed unexpectedly cut rates, but whatever would make them do that is coming. I don't want to speculate what that would be here, maybe in a later post.
Also look for the Bank of England to cut rates in an identical amount (0.25%) tomorrow, Dec 19. The ECB already cut the rates by 0.25% on Dec 12. Of course it's all coordinated.
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Update: The Bank of England did not cut rates on Dec 19, so I was wrong here.
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