Monday, December 2, 2024

Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies

 

Over the past two years, the delinquency rate for office CMBS has spiked by 8.8 percentage points, far faster than even the worst two-year period during the Financial Crisis (+6.3 percentage points in the two years through November 2010). The office sector of commercial real estate has entered a depression, and despite pronouncements earlier this year by big CRE players that office has hit bottom, we get another wakeup call:

The office sector of commercial real estate has entered a - what?

I repeat my prediction of a recession to start about February 1, 2025.

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