Yes, there is no doubt, the recession will begin. How does this compare to 2007? On Oct 8, 2007, the DJIA closed at 14,164, which was the high for 2007. So it looks like we are 2 months delayed from 2007. In 2007 the recession officially began on Dec 1, so here I think the recession will begin on Feb 1, 2025.
I have predicted this date of Feb 1, 2025 before.
The best indicator of a recession, the 2yr-10yr spread rising to 0.5%, hasn't hit yet, but it probably will in January. See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#.
Update: I made an obvious mistake on this because the Dec 19 close was slightly higher than the Dec 18 close, and the DJIA only dropped 10 days in a row. So the headline was incorrect, but everything else about this stays the same.
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