2011 Q3 nominal GDP was 15,176.1
2011 Q4 nominal GDP was 15,320.8. This is up YOY at 3.8%
Source: BEA.gov
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
"2pi" intersection
A "2pi" intersection is similar to a Continuous Flow Intersection. The left-hand traffic crosses over ahead of the signal.
Superstreets
"A "superstreet" is a roadway where the signalized intersections have been modified to eliminate left turns and straight-through traffic on the cross street. Doing this reduces the number of traffic signal phases required to move traffic through the intersection thereby allowing for longer green times on the major roadway and thus reducing congestion caused by the signals."
They are a little complicated but are much cheaper than overpasses, and allow much more traffic than regular intersections.
Detroit is booming
"Auto sales are growing so fast that Detroit can barely keep up. Three years after the U.S. auto industry nearly collapsed, sales of cars and trucks are surging. Sales could exceed 14 million this year, above last year's 12.8 million. The result: Carmakers are adding shifts and hiring thousands of workers across the country. Carmakers and parts companies added more than 38,000 jobs last year, reaching a total of 717,000. And automakers have announced plans to add another 13,000 this year."
Monday, February 27, 2012
Buffett: foreclosing banks are actually victims
"Warren Buffett, who controls the biggest shareholding of the No. 1 U.S. mortgage lender, said banks were victimized by some homeowners who refinanced their loans before getting evicted."
--http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-27/buffett-says-banks-victimized-by-evicted-homeowners-who-emerged-as-winners.html
--http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-27/buffett-says-banks-victimized-by-evicted-homeowners-who-emerged-as-winners.html
Long Term Gas Price Forecast
Here is my forecast of long-term gas prices, based on the following assumptions:
1. Gold will increase by 17% per year.
2. The average ratio of gold/oil is 13. When there is a recession, the ratio increases, and in boom years, the ratio decreases.
3. There are 42 gallons per barrel, and the retail markup, including distribution costs and taxes, is an additional 50%.
Dates are as of 9/30 of each year. Right now the prices are lower than this because the ratio of gold/oil is currently higher than 13, but this is the long-term trend.
Year Oil Gas/gal
=== === ====
2012 146 5.22
2013 169 6.04
2014 200 7.14
2015 238 8.52
2016 277 9.89
2017 323 11.54
2018 377 13.46
2019 438 15.66
2020 515 18.41
2021 600 21.43
2022 700 25.00
Why would gas prices go up this much? Well, the Fed is playing games with the dollar to keep the interest costs low. Most prices within the "internal" economy, which includes imports from China, will only rise at about the official CPI, which may be 2-3% per year. However, oil comes from the "external" economy, from places like Saudi Arabia, and there will be more money chasing fewer barrels of oil, and thus the price rise.
1. Gold will increase by 17% per year.
2. The average ratio of gold/oil is 13. When there is a recession, the ratio increases, and in boom years, the ratio decreases.
3. There are 42 gallons per barrel, and the retail markup, including distribution costs and taxes, is an additional 50%.
Dates are as of 9/30 of each year. Right now the prices are lower than this because the ratio of gold/oil is currently higher than 13, but this is the long-term trend.
Year Oil Gas/gal
=== === ====
2012 146 5.22
2013 169 6.04
2014 200 7.14
2015 238 8.52
2016 277 9.89
2017 323 11.54
2018 377 13.46
2019 438 15.66
2020 515 18.41
2021 600 21.43
2022 700 25.00
Why would gas prices go up this much? Well, the Fed is playing games with the dollar to keep the interest costs low. Most prices within the "internal" economy, which includes imports from China, will only rise at about the official CPI, which may be 2-3% per year. However, oil comes from the "external" economy, from places like Saudi Arabia, and there will be more money chasing fewer barrels of oil, and thus the price rise.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Weekly Leading Index
The Economic Cycle Research Institute is predicting that a recession will soon begin. One of their tools is the Weekly Leading Index. When this drops below 120, it probably means that we are in a recession. It last dropped below 120 in October 2008, and stayed there through July 2009. It dipped below 120 in October 2011 for a couple of weeks before rising again. It is currently at 123.2. It is something to watch.
Projected gold prices
Gold prices have been increasing at the rate of 25-30% per year. What if they increase at an average rate of 20%/year? This could easily continue at this rate because of ongoing quantitative easing.
So I will stick my neck out and forecast the following gold prices. This is based on a price of $1621/oz on 9/30/3011, and is rounded. Dates are as 9/30 of each year to match the end of the US fiscal year.
2011 1,620
2012 1,950
2013 2,350
2014 2,800
2015 3,300
2016 4,000
2017 4,800
2018 5,800
2019 7,000
2020 8,400
2021 10,000
2022 12,000
==============
Update: "over the last 11 years - the gold price has risen in US dollar terms at an average annual rate of appreciation of 17%." If there is 17% appreciation, the numbers look like this:
2011 1,620
2012 1,900
2013 2,200
2014 2,600
2015 3,100
2016 3,600
2017 4,200
2018 4,900
2019 5,700
2020 6,700
2021 7,800
2022 9,100
So I will stick my neck out and forecast the following gold prices. This is based on a price of $1621/oz on 9/30/3011, and is rounded. Dates are as 9/30 of each year to match the end of the US fiscal year.
2011 1,620
2012 1,950
2013 2,350
2014 2,800
2015 3,300
2016 4,000
2017 4,800
2018 5,800
2019 7,000
2020 8,400
2021 10,000
2022 12,000
==============
Update: "over the last 11 years - the gold price has risen in US dollar terms at an average annual rate of appreciation of 17%." If there is 17% appreciation, the numbers look like this:
2011 1,620
2012 1,900
2013 2,200
2014 2,600
2015 3,100
2016 3,600
2017 4,200
2018 4,900
2019 5,700
2020 6,700
2021 7,800
2022 9,100
Medicare will go broke in 2024
The Medicare Hospitalization Insurance (HI) fund will be totally exhausted by 2024: "Medicare’s HI Trust Fund is expected to pay out more in hospital benefits and other expenditures than it receives in income in all future years. The projected date of HI Trust Fund exhaustion is 2024, five years earlier than estimated in last year’s report, at which time dedicated revenues would be sufficient to pay 90 percent of HI costs."
This is a ticking time bomb. The choices are either massive tax increases or massive spending cuts. Medicare will be spending more than $1 trillion per year by 2024, and it will be very difficult to cut spending.
This is a ticking time bomb. The choices are either massive tax increases or massive spending cuts. Medicare will be spending more than $1 trillion per year by 2024, and it will be very difficult to cut spending.
Other Government Liabilities
In addition to the national debt, the US government also owes another $7318.6 billion as of 9/30/2011. Most of this is accrued federal employee and military retirement benefits, but it also includes environmental liabilities, contingent liabilities to Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. These should also be included in the US debt.
The FRUSG claims that the Social Security trust fund amounts should not be included: "In addition to debt held by the public, the Government reports about $4.7 trillion of intragovernmental debt outstanding, which arises when one part of the Government borrows from another. It represents debt held by Government funds, including the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, which are typically required to invest any excess annual receipts in Federal debt securities. Because these amounts are both liabilities of the Treasury and assets of the Government trust funds, they are eliminated in the consolidation process for the Government-wide financial statements." This hurts my head to think about it. There is no doubt that at least $4.7 trillion is owed to trust fund recipients. Is there a bank account somewhere with $4.7 trillion in it? I think not, so don't exclude it.
So the actual federal debt as of 9/30/2011 is $22109 billion, of which $10127 is debt held by the public, $4663 is intragovernmental holdings, $5792 is "Federal Employee and Veterans Benefits Payable" (hereinafter "fed retirement benefits"), and $1527 is other liabilities.
Should interest be accrued on these other debts? Yes, and here's why. Maybe interest isn't formally due, but the costs to repay these debts will continue to rise. For example, cleaning up a hazardous waste site will be more expensive in the future. I am using 3% as a long-term interest rate, so there should be a line item for "Accrued interest on non-public debt" or something similar.
Should the debt be offset with federal assets? No, unless there is a serious plan to sell off national parks or aircraft carriers.
So the next time I do a projection, I will include these other liabilities on it.
The FRUSG claims that the Social Security trust fund amounts should not be included: "In addition to debt held by the public, the Government reports about $4.7 trillion of intragovernmental debt outstanding, which arises when one part of the Government borrows from another. It represents debt held by Government funds, including the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, which are typically required to invest any excess annual receipts in Federal debt securities. Because these amounts are both liabilities of the Treasury and assets of the Government trust funds, they are eliminated in the consolidation process for the Government-wide financial statements." This hurts my head to think about it. There is no doubt that at least $4.7 trillion is owed to trust fund recipients. Is there a bank account somewhere with $4.7 trillion in it? I think not, so don't exclude it.
So the actual federal debt as of 9/30/2011 is $22109 billion, of which $10127 is debt held by the public, $4663 is intragovernmental holdings, $5792 is "Federal Employee and Veterans Benefits Payable" (hereinafter "fed retirement benefits"), and $1527 is other liabilities.
Should interest be accrued on these other debts? Yes, and here's why. Maybe interest isn't formally due, but the costs to repay these debts will continue to rise. For example, cleaning up a hazardous waste site will be more expensive in the future. I am using 3% as a long-term interest rate, so there should be a line item for "Accrued interest on non-public debt" or something similar.
Should the debt be offset with federal assets? No, unless there is a serious plan to sell off national parks or aircraft carriers.
So the next time I do a projection, I will include these other liabilities on it.
What if interest rates remain low?
It may be theoretically possible for the Fed to manipulate interest rates so they remain low forever. So I ran another scenario with interest rates never rising above 3%. Everything else from the prior projection remains the same. This extends the tipping point until 2040.
I don't show all the detail here, but the deficit still never drops below $1 trillion per year. And the deficit first tops $2 trillion in 2028, after which things rapidly deteriorate. So interest paid is not the cause of the crisis. The crisis, to reiterate, is out-of-control Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid costs.
I don't show all the detail here, but the deficit still never drops below $1 trillion per year. And the deficit first tops $2 trillion in 2028, after which things rapidly deteriorate. So interest paid is not the cause of the crisis. The crisis, to reiterate, is out-of-control Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid costs.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
The US allows the North Koreans to counterfeit money
North Korea makes extremely high-quality counterfeits of US $100 bills, called "supernotes", using the same paper, same type of printing press, and similar ink as the real bills. They got the equipment from the Swiss, who are notorious for enabling financial crime. The notes do have flaws, likely put there on purpose, if one knows where to look, to allow their customers to distinguish them from the real thing. "the makers of the supernotes had likely included their few tiny flaws on purpose, so that they and their customers could tell the difference between the counterfeits and the real thing. Otherwise, there would be nothing to stop criminals from ripping off their suppliers by purchasing supernotes—which typically cost around a third of their nominal value—with other supernotes."
The US knows that the North Koreans do this, and it allows them to, for fear of alienating them.
"The Illicit Activities Initiative had a lot more planned. The final stage, which David Asher says President Bush had been fully briefed about, would have been the unsealing of criminal indictments. “We could have gone after the foreign personal bank accounts of the leadership because we could prove they were kingpins,” Asher says. “We were going to indict the ultimate perpetrators of a global criminal network.”
Instead, the Bush administration suddenly decided not to proceed. What Asher describes as the “ultimate non-aggressive containment strategy” was unexpectedly curtailed. The reason: the administration believed that it risked provoking a permanent North Korean withdrawal from talks on its weapon and missile programs. Hayden says, “Suddenly, the rules had changed. The diplomatic piece of this came swooping in, and the imperative became ‘Let’s get them to the table,’ and that meant everything had to be ratcheted down.”
--http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/09/office-39-200909
The fake notes are almost impossible to distinguish from the real things except by FBI agents using special equipment. The North Koreans, for their part, don't abuse the "privilege" and limit the counterfeiting to a few hundred million dollars a year, which is not enough to really aggravate the US into acting.
If you ever wondered how Kim Jong Il could afford to spend millions each year on cognac, now you know the rest of the story.
See also: http://business.time.com/2012/02/24/how-the-u-s-could-pressure-north-korea-tomorrow-quit-the-100-bill/
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/magazine/23counterfeit.html?pagewanted=all
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33324.pdf
The US knows that the North Koreans do this, and it allows them to, for fear of alienating them.
"The Illicit Activities Initiative had a lot more planned. The final stage, which David Asher says President Bush had been fully briefed about, would have been the unsealing of criminal indictments. “We could have gone after the foreign personal bank accounts of the leadership because we could prove they were kingpins,” Asher says. “We were going to indict the ultimate perpetrators of a global criminal network.”
Instead, the Bush administration suddenly decided not to proceed. What Asher describes as the “ultimate non-aggressive containment strategy” was unexpectedly curtailed. The reason: the administration believed that it risked provoking a permanent North Korean withdrawal from talks on its weapon and missile programs. Hayden says, “Suddenly, the rules had changed. The diplomatic piece of this came swooping in, and the imperative became ‘Let’s get them to the table,’ and that meant everything had to be ratcheted down.”
--http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/09/office-39-200909
The fake notes are almost impossible to distinguish from the real things except by FBI agents using special equipment. The North Koreans, for their part, don't abuse the "privilege" and limit the counterfeiting to a few hundred million dollars a year, which is not enough to really aggravate the US into acting.
If you ever wondered how Kim Jong Il could afford to spend millions each year on cognac, now you know the rest of the story.
See also: http://business.time.com/2012/02/24/how-the-u-s-could-pressure-north-korea-tomorrow-quit-the-100-bill/
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/magazine/23counterfeit.html?pagewanted=all
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33324.pdf
Japan is run by Yakuza
See: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/the-story-behind-the-olympus-scandal-02162012.html
"Woodford, 51, recounted how he had just returned from Hong Kong, having fled Tokyo after a board meeting in which Olympus Chairman Tsuyoshi Kikukawa had fired him. The cause for dismissal, according to Woodford: his insistence that Olympus officials come clean about a series of questionable purchases dating to 2006, totaling $1.6 billion, none of which had been adequately reported in the company’s consolidated financial statements. The deals had been approved by Kikukawa and the Olympus board, yet in several cases the parties receiving the sums were not even clearly identified in Olympus’s books. (At least one Japanese magazine had strongly hinted that the Yakuza were beneficiaries of some of these shady deals.) Woodford, frustrated by the board’s stonewalling, had hired the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers to conduct an independent audit of the suspicious transactions. For several weeks leading up to his dismissal, he had been calling the board to account for these transactions, and eventually demanded the board’s resignation. Instead, Woodford was purged. And now he was running for his life."
A comment below the story claims: "Based on my own personal experience, I can say with certainty that Mr. Woodford's experience is the rule rather than the exception at most large Japanese companies."
==============
Here is another article about the same thing:
"Few in Japan would be surprised to learn that local executives and criminals are hand in glove. In 1997, the chairman of Japan's then largest bank, Dai-Ichi Kangyo, was convicted of lending billions of yen to members of Japanese organized-crime groups, collectively called the yakuza. Three years ago, in response to reports that organized crime was investing large sums in public companies, Japan's Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission compiled an index of more than 50 listed firms with alleged yakuza ties"
"Woodford, 51, recounted how he had just returned from Hong Kong, having fled Tokyo after a board meeting in which Olympus Chairman Tsuyoshi Kikukawa had fired him. The cause for dismissal, according to Woodford: his insistence that Olympus officials come clean about a series of questionable purchases dating to 2006, totaling $1.6 billion, none of which had been adequately reported in the company’s consolidated financial statements. The deals had been approved by Kikukawa and the Olympus board, yet in several cases the parties receiving the sums were not even clearly identified in Olympus’s books. (At least one Japanese magazine had strongly hinted that the Yakuza were beneficiaries of some of these shady deals.) Woodford, frustrated by the board’s stonewalling, had hired the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers to conduct an independent audit of the suspicious transactions. For several weeks leading up to his dismissal, he had been calling the board to account for these transactions, and eventually demanded the board’s resignation. Instead, Woodford was purged. And now he was running for his life."
A comment below the story claims: "Based on my own personal experience, I can say with certainty that Mr. Woodford's experience is the rule rather than the exception at most large Japanese companies."
==============
Here is another article about the same thing:
"Few in Japan would be surprised to learn that local executives and criminals are hand in glove. In 1997, the chairman of Japan's then largest bank, Dai-Ichi Kangyo, was convicted of lending billions of yen to members of Japanese organized-crime groups, collectively called the yakuza. Three years ago, in response to reports that organized crime was investing large sums in public companies, Japan's Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission compiled an index of more than 50 listed firms with alleged yakuza ties"
Friday, February 24, 2012
NASA planning reality show
Since NASA has almost totally shut down its space program with the exception of a money-sucking giant telescope, it is focused on studies of humans on earth eating space food.
"NASA wants volunteers for their four-month simulation to Mars. But instead of conducting tests on confinement and psychological stress, NASA just want to study your tastebuds. ... There are a few catches, of course. Among others, you have to have a bachelor’s degree in either math, engineering, biological or physical sciences, or computer science; you have to be a non-smoker; you have to speak English. Then if you are chosen, you have to live astronaut-style: in a small enclosure with strangers, with limited showers, writing daily reports. But in addition to the free food, those chosen for the study will be given cooking classes and taught to work in space’s microgravity environment. They will also earn round-trip travel to Hawaii, lodgings…and $5,000. There also seems to be a lot of down-time in this study. But hey, you won’t be slacking. You’ll be hanging out…for science!"
--ahh, forgot the link
=======================
Update: The test site will be in Hawaii!
"NASA wants volunteers for their four-month simulation to Mars. But instead of conducting tests on confinement and psychological stress, NASA just want to study your tastebuds. ... There are a few catches, of course. Among others, you have to have a bachelor’s degree in either math, engineering, biological or physical sciences, or computer science; you have to be a non-smoker; you have to speak English. Then if you are chosen, you have to live astronaut-style: in a small enclosure with strangers, with limited showers, writing daily reports. But in addition to the free food, those chosen for the study will be given cooking classes and taught to work in space’s microgravity environment. They will also earn round-trip travel to Hawaii, lodgings…and $5,000. There also seems to be a lot of down-time in this study. But hey, you won’t be slacking. You’ll be hanging out…for science!"
--ahh, forgot the link
=======================
Update: The test site will be in Hawaii!
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Paradise Lost: Pruitt-Igoe in St. Louis
Pruitt-Igoe was a socialist planners dream is to replace slums with high-rise apartments, leaving lots of green space. It cost $36 million to build.
"In 1951, Architectural Forum praised Yamasaki's original proposal as "the best high apartment" of the year. Overall density was set at a moderate level of 50 units per acre (higher than in downtown slums), yet, according to the planning principles of Le Corbusier and the International Congresses of Modern Architects, residents were raised up to 11 floors above ground in an attempt to save the grounds and ground floor space for communal activity. Architectural Forum praised the layout as "vertical neighborhoods for poor people". Each row of buildings was supposed to be flanked by a "river of trees", developing a Harland Bartholomew concept. As completed in 1955, Pruitt–Igoe consisted of 33 11-story apartment buildings on a 57-acre (23 ha) site, on St. Louis's lower north side. The complex totaled 2,870 apartments, one of the largest in the country."It soon failed because of high crime.
"When corridors were shared by 20 families and staircases by hundreds, public spaces immediately fell into disrepair.When the number of residents per public space rose above a certain level, none would identify with these "no man's land[s]" – places where it was "impossible to feel ... to tell resident from intruder".Demolition began in 1972 and by 1976, all the buildings had been demolished. Nothing has been built there since except for a school. Today the land is planted with trees and strewn with trash and it is considered a brownfield.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Los Alamitos Traffic Circle
Ten Most Dynamic Cities
These were the fastest growing large cities in the world in 2011.
1. Shanghai, China
2. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
3. Jiddah, Saudi Arabia
4. Izmir, Turkey
5. Hangzhou, China
6. Ankara, Turkey
7. Istanbul, Turkey
9. Santiago, Chile
8. Shenzhen, China
10. Shenyang, China
Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/01/the-10-fastest-growing-and-fastest-declining-cities-in-the-world/251602/
1. Shanghai, China
2. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
3. Jiddah, Saudi Arabia
4. Izmir, Turkey
5. Hangzhou, China
6. Ankara, Turkey
7. Istanbul, Turkey
9. Santiago, Chile
8. Shenzhen, China
10. Shenyang, China
Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/01/the-10-fastest-growing-and-fastest-declining-cities-in-the-world/251602/
Greece is now a colony of the EU not a member
"But down there in the small print of the Greek deal lies the nasty side for Greece. There lies a heavy penalty clause; Greece's lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal. Greece has 111 tonnes of gold. In other words Greece has given up on its "money in extremis", gold. If they default they will have nowhere else to go. Its international assets will be seized and it will not be able to trade internationally at all.
Today we are watching both Iran and the Sudan use their gold to buy food for their country as they have nowhere else and nothing else to get it with. Under the terms of this new deal Greece has effectively forfeited that last resort. And if they wanted to pull a last card from the pack by insisting on a Greek jurisdiction for any final arbitration, they have forfeited that too, by agreeing that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors.
The option of leaving the Eurozone and surviving independently has now gone. If they do default [and many think the shrinking economy will force them down that road] they will have to accept whatever terms they can scrape together from the E.U. in order to survive! Greece is now a colony of the E.U. not a member!"
My comments: EU has put its foot on the neck of Greece and is grinding it into the ground. Greece has given up all remaining shreds of dignity. It can't leave the EU and it has no say in how it is governed. The only alternative, unfortunately, appears to be civil war.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
National Geographic article on Astana
"Astana, the new capital of Kazakhstan, is brash and grandiose—and wildly attractive to young strivers seeking success."
--http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2012/02/astana/lancaster-text
Monday, February 20, 2012
Eliminate the Department of Agriculture
I've been reading through "Cuts, Consolidations and Savings", which details how about $25 billion/year will be cut from the Federal budget. Many of these are from the Department of Agriculture.
My suggestion is to totally eliminate the Department of Agriculture.
Why is the United States Forest Service in the Department of Agriculture instead of Interior? Interior has the National Park Service and Fish and Wildlife Service, so it seems natural to have them in the same department. (A related question is why is NOAA in the Department of Commerce instead of Interior? They have fisheries and endangered species programs which duplicate those of the Interior.)
Also, why does Agriculture have a division for Rural Development? Shouldn't this be combined with Housing and Urban Development?
Food Stamps have become EBTs, which is welfare. Why is this under Agriculture? Move it to Health and Human Services.
Investments in renewable energy should be shifted to, I don't know, how about the Department of Energy? Improving water quality sounds like something for the EPA.
The remaining functions, dealing with things such as crop insurance, scientific research, food inspection, and farm subsidies, could be moved to Commerce.
The Department of Agriculture has a $134 billion annual budget. Shifting its functions to other departments wouldn't save that much money, but surely at least 5% could be saved. That's over $7 billion/year. So that's my suggestion for the day. Eliminate the Department of Agriculture. It's a grab bag of functions that duplicate other agencies.
================
The Food and Drug Administration, which sounds like it could be in the Department of Agriculture, is Health and Human Services.
My suggestion is to totally eliminate the Department of Agriculture.
Why is the United States Forest Service in the Department of Agriculture instead of Interior? Interior has the National Park Service and Fish and Wildlife Service, so it seems natural to have them in the same department. (A related question is why is NOAA in the Department of Commerce instead of Interior? They have fisheries and endangered species programs which duplicate those of the Interior.)
Also, why does Agriculture have a division for Rural Development? Shouldn't this be combined with Housing and Urban Development?
Food Stamps have become EBTs, which is welfare. Why is this under Agriculture? Move it to Health and Human Services.
Investments in renewable energy should be shifted to, I don't know, how about the Department of Energy? Improving water quality sounds like something for the EPA.
The remaining functions, dealing with things such as crop insurance, scientific research, food inspection, and farm subsidies, could be moved to Commerce.
The Department of Agriculture has a $134 billion annual budget. Shifting its functions to other departments wouldn't save that much money, but surely at least 5% could be saved. That's over $7 billion/year. So that's my suggestion for the day. Eliminate the Department of Agriculture. It's a grab bag of functions that duplicate other agencies.
================
The Food and Drug Administration, which sounds like it could be in the Department of Agriculture, is Health and Human Services.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Poland is booming
"Poland is finding its own path through the EU crisis. It is one of the few EU countries that did not suffer from the financial crisis. It is the only of 27 EU nations to avoid a recession in 2009. Poland’s financial system is stable and the stock exchange is one of the healthiest in the EU.
Polish exports grew more than 3.5-fold from 2000 to 2010 and Polish companies are the low-cost suppliers for many of Germany’s export companies. Poland is Germany’s largest trading partner. For Germany, trade with Poland exceeds trade with Russia, Spain, or Japan, and German exports across the Polish border have doubled since Warsaw joined the EU in 2004. The Ernst & Young Report ranks Poland number sevenon its list of attractive global investment locations. And Poland’s co-hosting the European Soccer Championships this summer will surely enhance this global reputation and increase capital infusion infrastructure projects, and travel related industries will continue to attract capital.
Poland is one of the few European nations with substantial domestic energy production. It sits on shale gas reserves, which the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates is 187 trillion cubic feet (approximately 5,3 trillion cubic meters) – more than 200 times annual consumption, which could last for over two centuries.
Poland’s 39 million citizens provide for robust domestic demand of goods and services. The Polish Zloty has insulated the economy from Euro woes and kept Polish exports competitive. Warsaw’s banking regulations prevent foreign banks from taking capital out of its Polish subsidiaries to cover losses elsewhere, resulting in relative calm in Poland’s credit markets. Finally, the Polish workforce is young and educated, and those who emigrated following Poland’s EU accession have returned home to a country that provides them with better opportunities."
--http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2012/02/14/european-union-crisis-view-poland/
Polish exports grew more than 3.5-fold from 2000 to 2010 and Polish companies are the low-cost suppliers for many of Germany’s export companies. Poland is Germany’s largest trading partner. For Germany, trade with Poland exceeds trade with Russia, Spain, or Japan, and German exports across the Polish border have doubled since Warsaw joined the EU in 2004. The Ernst & Young Report ranks Poland number sevenon its list of attractive global investment locations. And Poland’s co-hosting the European Soccer Championships this summer will surely enhance this global reputation and increase capital infusion infrastructure projects, and travel related industries will continue to attract capital.
Poland is one of the few European nations with substantial domestic energy production. It sits on shale gas reserves, which the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates is 187 trillion cubic feet (approximately 5,3 trillion cubic meters) – more than 200 times annual consumption, which could last for over two centuries.
Poland’s 39 million citizens provide for robust domestic demand of goods and services. The Polish Zloty has insulated the economy from Euro woes and kept Polish exports competitive. Warsaw’s banking regulations prevent foreign banks from taking capital out of its Polish subsidiaries to cover losses elsewhere, resulting in relative calm in Poland’s credit markets. Finally, the Polish workforce is young and educated, and those who emigrated following Poland’s EU accession have returned home to a country that provides them with better opportunities."
--http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2012/02/14/european-union-crisis-view-poland/
Bering Strait Tunnel
"This year’s extent of Arctic sea ice could be the second smallest ever, making the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route ever more navigable. But in and around the Bering Strait, the amount of ice wouldn’t matter if the plans to build an underwater tunnel between Russia and Alaska are realized. Though the idea was initially floated by Tsar Nicholas II in 1905, it was scrapped by the Soviets and then again by the economic meltdown of the 1990s following the Soviet collapse. Vladimir Putin reignited Russian interest in the project and raised the issue with former president George W. Bush in 2008. Now, the Daily Mail reports that the Duma has just approved the plans to build the 64-mile tunnel and rail link, which could cost anywhere from $60-100 billion to construct. Reports are conflicting, but the tunnel will include a high-speed rail for cargo trains and possibly a road, fiber optic cable connections, and energy links."
--http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/08/28/russia-seeks-to-build-64-mile-tunnel-across-the-bering-strait-to-alaska/%20
--http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/08/28/russia-seeks-to-build-64-mile-tunnel-across-the-bering-strait-to-alaska/%20
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Obama budget director still blaming Bush for the deficits
At 9:32, ZIENTS: A lot of this is inherited. It's inherited from an administration that passed in '01 and '03 a tax cut that was unpaid for, a part D medicare - unpaid for, two wars - unpaid for, and then we walk in, as Congressman Van Hollen said, to a an economic situation which was the Great Recession.
Ryan points out that the Obama budget increases 1.5 trillion over ten years, with 1.9 trillion of additional taxes, so the debt over 10 years decreases only 400 billion from the baseline.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Bizarre story about trillions of fake US bonds
It should be very easy to determine if US Treasury bonds are real or not. The recent ones would all have CUSIP numbers and be in electronic form. The older bearer bonds have all matured, but there may be $100 million or so of them outstanding.
So how could there possibly be trillions of US bonds floating around? Could there be secret bonds that were issued? The bonds that were seized were all dated 1934.
Here are the bizarre stories:
$6 Trillion In US Bonds Seized In Zurich, Said To Pose "Severe Threats To International Financial Stability"
Why Were The Trillions In Fake Bonds Held In Chicago Fed Crates?
Now read this:
"[In the 1920s] each country that handed over its gold -- and / or had its gold forcibly taken -- was given certificates of deposit, or bonds, in exchange for what they gave up. The bonds were issued by the Federal Reserve, through their various banks in major cities of the United States. These bonds were considered to be as valuable and as redeemable as cash. The problem was that the Federal Reserve printed vastly, vastly, vastly more money in these bonds than existed in the open, honest economy -- trillions upon trillions of dollars' worth, beginning in the 1920s."
--http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/81954596
So might it be possible that the bonds were actually real, and the Fed is lying about them being fake?
======================
Stranger and stranger. There is an allegation that the Kuomintang took the entire amount of China's gold reserves in the 1920s, to keep it from being seized by the Japanese. Some of this gold was shipped to the US in exchange for trillions in bearer bonds, that were placed in special wooden boxes. Some of these bearer bonds came under the control of the "Dragon Family". However, the Fed refuses to honor them. There was a lawsuit filed about this, by one Neil Keenan.
This sounds like the plot of a spy novel.
So how could there possibly be trillions of US bonds floating around? Could there be secret bonds that were issued? The bonds that were seized were all dated 1934.
Here are the bizarre stories:
$6 Trillion In US Bonds Seized In Zurich, Said To Pose "Severe Threats To International Financial Stability"
Why Were The Trillions In Fake Bonds Held In Chicago Fed Crates?
Now read this:
"[In the 1920s] each country that handed over its gold -- and / or had its gold forcibly taken -- was given certificates of deposit, or bonds, in exchange for what they gave up. The bonds were issued by the Federal Reserve, through their various banks in major cities of the United States. These bonds were considered to be as valuable and as redeemable as cash. The problem was that the Federal Reserve printed vastly, vastly, vastly more money in these bonds than existed in the open, honest economy -- trillions upon trillions of dollars' worth, beginning in the 1920s."
--http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/81954596
So might it be possible that the bonds were actually real, and the Fed is lying about them being fake?
======================
Stranger and stranger. There is an allegation that the Kuomintang took the entire amount of China's gold reserves in the 1920s, to keep it from being seized by the Japanese. Some of this gold was shipped to the US in exchange for trillions in bearer bonds, that were placed in special wooden boxes. Some of these bearer bonds came under the control of the "Dragon Family". However, the Fed refuses to honor them. There was a lawsuit filed about this, by one Neil Keenan.
This sounds like the plot of a spy novel.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Separate Ways - Hilarious
This one had me laughing several times - the drummer with hair in his face, the guy swinging his hair around, the garbage cans used as drums and falling over
Separate Ways - Classic Remake
Perfect - except they show a guy dreaming at the end instead of the girl
Separate Ways - Afghanistan Edition
This is missing the piano on the wall, and the dreamy girl at the end, but otherwise very inspiring and a lot of fun.
Journey Separate Ways
"Separate Ways" is one of the greatest songs of all time, but one of the worst videos. Thus, it has inspired dozens of parodies. Here is the original.
Some things to notice:
-the air guitars replaced by real instruments
-the girl walking away and a close up of her rear
-the lead singer crossing his arms and then breaking them apart when singing "the chains that bind you"
-the piano on the wall
-a shot of the girl, then a car drives by, replacing her with the pianist
-the girl in the middle of 3 guys, then she walks away
-the brush-off by the pianist
-the girl at the end dreaming
Some things to notice:
-the air guitars replaced by real instruments
-the girl walking away and a close up of her rear
-the lead singer crossing his arms and then breaking them apart when singing "the chains that bind you"
-the piano on the wall
-a shot of the girl, then a car drives by, replacing her with the pianist
-the girl in the middle of 3 guys, then she walks away
-the brush-off by the pianist
-the girl at the end dreaming
Warren Buffett: Gold has no value
"Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has dismissed gold as a valueless asset saying that it has no inherent value. In an article for Fortune magazine, Buffett said that gold investors were pinning their hopes on future demand.
He warned that gold was a self-inflating bubble, created by investors desperate for a viable alternative to property and shares.
The famous investor warned that investors in gold would be left with egg on their face when the price eventually crashed.
"Bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop," he said. "And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: "What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9074670/Warren-Buffett-gold-has-no-value.html
--http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9074670/Warren-Buffett-gold-has-no-value.html
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
New Projection: 2032
I revised my model again after looking at the President's proposed budget. It is very troubling.
First, it is unconnected to reality. 2011 net interest costs were 266, not 230. The 266 number comes from the Treasury. It is projecting that interest costs will decrease in 2012 to 223. So the President's budget guys don't have a clue as to how much interest costs will be. Second, it is based on wishful thinking. They project that Medicare costs will decrease in 2012. They project that revenue will vastly increase. It could happen. But for now I am sticking with my previous revenue numbers.
One area I do trust it is when they project a large increasing in discretionary spending in 2012. So I will take that into account. But then it projects that this spending will be cut by about 200 in 2013.
So without further ado, here is my revised projection based in very small part on the latest budget. It projects (not shown here) that the 150% mark will be hit in 2032. I will likely revise this again when the CRFB weighs in.
Update: I just noticed that these numbers are almost exactly the same as a projection I made almost two years ago.
Update 6/19/2012: This is model K-2.
First, it is unconnected to reality. 2011 net interest costs were 266, not 230. The 266 number comes from the Treasury. It is projecting that interest costs will decrease in 2012 to 223. So the President's budget guys don't have a clue as to how much interest costs will be. Second, it is based on wishful thinking. They project that Medicare costs will decrease in 2012. They project that revenue will vastly increase. It could happen. But for now I am sticking with my previous revenue numbers.
One area I do trust it is when they project a large increasing in discretionary spending in 2012. So I will take that into account. But then it projects that this spending will be cut by about 200 in 2013.
So without further ado, here is my revised projection based in very small part on the latest budget. It projects (not shown here) that the 150% mark will be hit in 2032. I will likely revise this again when the CRFB weighs in.
Update: I just noticed that these numbers are almost exactly the same as a projection I made almost two years ago.
Update 6/19/2012: This is model K-2.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Tiny countries and city-states
Here is an incomplete list of tiny countries and autonomous territories, all under 1,000,000 in population AND smaller than 50,000 sq.km. Many of these are associated with larger countries because of their small size, and could be classified as autonomous or semi-autonomous. Most of these are city-states or islands. For some island countries I split up the countries, but I am not consistent. I don't show islands with a population of less than 1000, unless they are already recognized as a separate territory (i.e. Pitcairn). Just to be clear, totally independent countries are in bold and dependent territories are in italics. (km2 = square kilometers). This is a work in progress.
It seems almost incredible that any of these could be considered independent countries. It also seems kind of random which ones are independent vs. dependent. There are many countries I excluded from this list because they are slightly bigger than 1 million people, or 50,000 sq. km, and those could be on a separate list. To reiterate, these are all tiny states, and they could choose to be independent or to affiliate themselves with a much larger state.
The following countries are excluded from the list. This is not a complete list.
Aceh, Indonesia (too populous)
Albania (too populous)
Armenia (too populous)
Bahrain (too populous)
Basque Country, Spain (too populous)
Clipperton Island, France (uninhabited)
Dubai (too populous)
East Timor (aka Timor-Leste) (pop. over 1,000,000)
El Salvador (too populous)
Greenland (too large)
Hawaii, US (too populous)
Heard Islands and McDonald Islands (unpopulated)
Hong Kong (too populous)
Iceland (too large)
Madagascar.
Okinawa (too populous)
Panama (too populous)
Papua, Indonesia
Puerto Rico (too populous)
Rhode Island, US
Sabah, Malaysia
Sao Joao Batista de Ajuda (Benin). This was a 2 acre Portuguese enclave in Dahomey, annexed by Dahomey (Benin) in 1961.
Singapore (too populous)
Switzerland (too populous, but parts are listed above)
Taiwan (too populous).
Togoland, Ghana (too populous)
Trinidad. Pop. 1.2 million
Tuva, Russia (too large)
Western Sahara (too large)
Yemen (too populous)
It seems almost incredible that any of these could be considered independent countries. It also seems kind of random which ones are independent vs. dependent. There are many countries I excluded from this list because they are slightly bigger than 1 million people, or 50,000 sq. km, and those could be on a separate list. To reiterate, these are all tiny states, and they could choose to be independent or to affiliate themselves with a much larger state.
- Abkhazia (Georgia, pop. 240,000, area 8600 km2). Considers itself an independent state.
- Abu Dhabi (UAE, pop. 900,000, area 67 km2).
- Aden (Yemen, pop. 1,000,000, area 192 km2). British colony until 1963. On a peninsula.
- Aegina (Greece, pop. 14000, area 87 km2). Greek island.
- Ajman (UAE, pop. 361000, area 260 km2)
- Akrotiri and Dhekalia (UK, pop. 15000, area 254 km2., domain none). On Cyprus.
- Aland Islands (Finland, pop. 28,000, area 13,000 km2, domain .ax). Autonomous Swedish-speaking area of Finland.
- Alonnisos (Greece, pop. 2700, area 130 km2). Greek island.
- American Samoa (US, pop. 56,000, area 197 km2, domain .as)
- Andorra (pop. 78,000, area 468 km2, domain .ad)
- Anegada (UK, BVI, pop. 200, area 38 km2).
- Andros (Greece, pop. 10,000, area 380 km2). Greek island.
- Anguilla (UK, pop. 14000, area 91 km2., domain .ai). Caribbean island.
- Antigua (Antigua and Barbuda, pop. 87000, area 246 km2). Caribbean island.
- Aruba (Netherlands, pop. 101,000, area 179 km2). Located in the Caribbean and a "country" within the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
- Azores (Portugal, pop. 246,000, area 2300 km2)
- Baarle-Nassau and Baarle-Hertog (Netherlands and Belgium. combined pop. 10,000, area 85 km2). These unique cities are intertwined. Baarle-Nassau consists of 26 separate pieces of land, and Baarle-Hertog consists of 24.
- Bahamas (pop. 354,000, area 14,000 km2).
- Bangka Island (Indonesia, pop. 627,000, area 11,910 km2).
- Barbados (pop. 285,000, area 431 km2).
- Barbuda (Antigua and Barbuda, pop. 1500, area 161 km2).
- Batam (Indonesia, pop. 950,000, area 715 km2).
- Belize (pop. 333,000, area 23,000 km2)
- Bermuda (UK, pop. 64,000, area 53 km2).
- Bhutan (pop. 708,000, area 38,000 km2).
- Bonaire (Netherlands, pop. 16,000, area 294 km2, domain .an)
- Brcko District (Bosnia-Herzegovina, pop. 87,000, 493 km2). One of the 3 regions of Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is made up of 2 other autonomous regions: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, which are de facto independent.
- British Virgin Islands (UK, pop. 27,000, area 153 km2, domain .vg)
- Brunei (pop. 402,000, area 5700 km2., domain .bn)
- Brussels (Belgium, pop. 145,000, 33 km2). City-state.
- Busingen (Germany, pop. 1400, area 8 km2). German enclave in Switzerland.
- Buton (Indonesia, pop. 500,000, area 4400 km2).
- Cabinda (Angola, pop. 358,999, area 7800 km2, domain none)
- Campione d'Italia (Italy, pop. 2200. area 2 km2). Italian enclave in Switzerland.
- Cape Breton Island (Nova Scotia, Canada, pop. 147,000 area 10,300 km2)
- Cape Verde (pop. 567,000, area 4000 sq.km, domain .cv). Received independence from Portugal in 1975.
- Carriacou and Petite Martinique (Grenada, pop. 10,000, area 38 km2).
- Cayman Islands (UK, pop. 55,000, area 260 km2, domain .ky)
- Cephalonia (Greece, pop. 36000, area 781 km2). Greek island.
- Ceuta (Spain, pop. 75,000, area 18 km2, domain ceuta.es). City-state on the African continent.
- Chios (Greek, pop. 52000, area 843 km2).
- Christmas Island (Australia, pop. 1400, area 135 km2).
- Cocos (Keeling) Islands (Australia, pop. 596, area 14 sq.km, domain .cc)
- Comoros (pop. 798000, area 2200 km2). Received independence from France in 1975.
- Cook Islands (New Zealand, pop. 20,000, area 240 km2, domain .ck).
- Corfu (Greek, pop. 110,000, area 614 km2).
- Corsica (France, pop. 302000, area 8700 km2)
- Crete (Greece, pop. 621,000, area 8400 km2).
- Curacao (Netherlands, pop. 142000, area 444 km2).
- Cyprus (pop. 839,000, area 9251 km2 (includes north), domain .cy)
- Cythera (Greece, pop. 3400, area 280 km2). Greek island.
- Delaware (US, pop. 917,000, area 2490 km2). US state and tax haven.
- Diego Garcia aka British Indian Ocean Territory aka Chagos (UK, pop. 3500, area 60 km2, domain none)
- Djerba (Tunisia, pop 140,000, area 514 km2).
- Djibouti (pop. 818,000, area 23,200 km2, domain .dj).
- Dominica (pop. 73,000, area 750 km2, domain .dm). Received independence from UK in 1978.
- Easter Island (Chile, pop. 5000, area 164 km2).
- Equatorial Guinea (pop. 676,000, area 28,000 km2, domain .gq)
- Euboea (Greece, pop. 198000, area 3700 km2). Greek island.
- Falkland Islands (UK, pop. 3,000, area 12,000 km2, domain .fk)
- Faroe Islands (Denmark, pop. 49,000; area 1400 km2, domain .fo)
- Fiji (pop. 849,000, area 18,000 km2, domain .fj).
- French Guiana (France, pop. 217,000, area 84,000 km2). French territory in South America.
- French Polynesia (France, pop. 267,000, area 4167 km2, domain .pf).
- Fujairah (UAE, pop. 130,000, area 1150 km2).
- Funen (Denmark, pop. 454,000, area 3000 km2).
- Gagauzia (Moldova, pop. 161,000, area 1800 km2). Autonomous region of Moldova.
- Geneva (Switzerland, pop. 191,000, area 16 km2). Global city-state.
- Gibraltar (UK, pop. 29,000, area 7 sq.km, domain .gi)
- Gran Canaria (Spain, Canary Islands, pop. 840,000, area 1560 km2).
- Grand Turk (UK, Turk and Caicos, pop. 3700, area 18 km2)
- Grenada (pop. 110,000, area 344 km2, domain .gd).
- The Grenadines (St. Vincent and the Grenadines, pop. 9200, area 43 km2).
- Guadalupe (French, pop. 405,000, area 1,600 sq.km, domain .gp)
- Guam (US, pop. 178,000, area 541 sq.km, domain .gu)
- Guantanamo Bay (US, pop 720, area 120 km2). US naval base in Cuba, under US control but Cuban sovereignty.
- Guernsey (UK, pop. 65,000, area 78 sq.km., domain .gg)
- Hawai'i - The Big Island (US, pop. 185,000, area 10,432 km2).
- Hawar Islands (Bahrain, pop. 4,000, area 50 km2). These were previously claimed by Qatar.
- Hutt River (Australia, pop. 30, area 75 km2). Self-proclaimed independent principality.
- Icaria (Greece, pop. 8300, area 254 km2). Greek island.
- Ifni (Morocco, pop. 51,000, area 1500 km2). Former Spanish province.
- Isla Martín García (Argentina, pop. 150, area 2 km2). Argentine island previously claimed by Uruguay.
- Isla Margarita (Venezuela, pop. 437,000, area 1020 km2). Island off the coast off Venezuela.
- Isle of Man (UK, pop. 85,000, area 572 km2, domain .im)
- Ithaca (Greece, pop. 3000, area 118 km2).
- Jeju-do (South Korea, pop. 532,000, area 1850 km2). Autonomous province.
- Jersey (pop. 98,000, area 116 km2, domain .je)
- Jolo (Philippines, pop. 448,000, area 870 km2)
- Kalingrad (Russia, pop. 432,000 in city, 940,000 in oblast, area 215 km2 in city, 15100 km2 in oblast, domain none).
- Karpathos (Greece, pop. 6500, area 324 km2). Greek island.
- Key West (Florida, US, pop. 25,000, area 19 km2). City-state on an island closer to Havana than Miami.
- Kiribati (pop. 100,000, area 811 km2, domain .ki). Received independence from UK in 1979. Formerly known as the Gilbert Islands.
- Kos (Greece, pop. 31000, area 287 km2). Greek island.
- Kosovo District (Kosovo and Metohija - disputed, pop. 672,000, area about 6700 km2).
- Labuan (Malaysia, pop. 100,000, area 91 km2).
- Lefkada (Greece, pop. 21,000, area 336 km2). Greek island.
- Lemnos (Greece, pop. 17,000, area 477 km2). Greek island.
- Lesbos (Greece, pop. 90000, 1600 km2). Greek island.
- Liechtenstein (pop. 36,000, area 160 km2, domain .li)
- Luxembourg (pop. 512,000, area 2500 km2, domain .lu)
- Macau (China, pop. 545,000, area 29 km2, domain .mo). City-state.
- Madeira (Portugal, 267,000, area 801 km2).
- Majorca (Spain, pop. 869000, area 3600 km2). Spanish island.
- Maldives (pop. 329,000, area 298 km2, domain .mv). Islands off the coast of India.
- Malta (pop. 417,000, area 316 km2, domain .mt)
- Marshall Islands (US, pop. 68,000, area 181 km2, domain .mh)
- Martinique (France, pop. 398,000, area 1,100 km2, domain none). Island in the Caribbean.
- Masbate (Philippines, pop. 770,000, area 4150 km2).
- Mayotte (France, pop. 194,000, area 374 km2, domain .yt). Near Comoros in the Indian Ocean and claimed by Comoros.
- Melilla (Spain, pop. 73,000, area 12 km2, domain melilla.es). City-state on the coast of Morocco.
- Metohija (Kosovo and Metohija - disputed, pop. 800,000, area 3340 km2).
- Micronesia, Federated States of (pop. 111,000, area 702 km2, domain .fm)
- Monaco (pop. 36,000, area 2 sq.km, domain .mc)
- Montenegro (pop. 625,000, area 13,800 sq. km., domain .me)
- Montserrat (UK, pop. 5,900, area 102 sq. km., domain .ms)
- Mount Athos (Greece, pop. 2200, area 336 km2).
- Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan, pop. 138,000, area 4400 km2). De facto independent state.
- Nauru (pop. 9300, area 21 km2).
- Naxos (Greece, pop. 18000 area 430 km2). Greek island
- Nevis (St. Kitts and Nevis, pop. 12,000, area 93 km2)
- New Britain (Papua New Guinea, pop. 514,000, area 36500 km2)
- New Caledonia (France, pop 252,000, area 18500 km2, domain .nc)
- Nias (Indonesia, pop. 750,000, area 148 km2). Island.
- Niue (New Zealand, pop. 1400, area 260 km2)
- Norfolk Island (Australia, pop. 2100, area 34 km2., domain .nf)
- North Caicos (Turks and Caicos, pop. 2000, area 116 km2).
- Northern Cyprus (Turkey, pop. 295,000, area 3355 km2., domain .nc.tr)
- Northern Mariana Islands (US, pop. 54,000, area 465 km2, domain .mp).
- Orkney Islands (UK, pop. 20,000, area 990 km2).
- Palau (pop. 21,000, area 460 km2).
- Paros (Greece, pop. 13000, area 196 km2).
- Paxi (Greece, pop. 2400, area 30 km2).
- Penang Island (Malaysia, pop. 750,000, area 293 km2)
- Penghu (Taiwan, pop. 93,000, area 141 km2).
- Pitcairn Islands (UK, pop. 67, area 47 km2, domain .pn)
- Point Roberts (Washington, US, pop. 1300, area 13 km2).
- Prince Edward Island (Canada, pop. 140000, area 5660 km2).
- Providenciales (Turks and Caicos, pop. 22,700, area 164 km2).
- Ras al-Khaimah (UAE, pop. 263,000, 1680 km2).
- Reunion (France, pop. 827,000, area 2500 km2, domain reunion.fr). Island in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar.
- Reykjavik (Iceland, pop. 200,000, area 777 km2). City-state.
- Rhodes (Greece, pop. 117000, area 1400 km2). Greek island.
- Saba (Netherlands, pop. 1800, area 13 km2, domain .an). Special municipality within the Netherlands.
- Samos (Greece, pop. 34,000, area 477 km2). Greek island.
- St. Barthelemy (France, pop. 9000, area 21 km2).
- St. Croix (US, pop. 51,000, area 236 km2). Largest of US Virgin Islands.
- St. Helena (UK)
- St. John (US, pop. 4,000, area 82 km2). One of the US Virgin Islands.
- St. Kitts
- St. Lucia
- St. Martin (France, pop 37,000, area 53 km2)
- St. Pierre and Miquelon (France, pop. 5,900, area 242 sq.km, domain .pm). 12 miles off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada.
- St. Thomas (US, pop. 52,000, area 81 km2). Part of US Virgin Islands.
- St. Vincent (St. Vincent and the Grenadines, pop. 120,000, area 348 km2).
- Samoa (pop. 194,000, area 2,831 km2, domain .ws)
- San Andrés y Providencia (Colombia, pop. 75,000, area 53 km2).
- San Marino (pop. 32,000, area 61 sq.km, domain .sm)
- Sao Tome and Principe (pop. 183,000, area 1000 km2, domain .st). Independent of Portugal in 1975.
- Sarawak (Malaysia)
- Sark (Guernsey, UK, pop. 600, area 5 km2)
- Seychelles (pop. 84,000, area 451 sq.km, domain .sc)
- Sharjah (UAE, pop. 890,000, area 2590 km2). Protectorate of the UK before it joined the UAE in 1971.
- Shetland Islands (UK)
- Sint Eustatius (Netherlands, pop. 3500, area 21 km2, domain .an). Caribbean island and special municipality of Netherlands.
- Sint-Maarten (Netherlands)
- Skiathos (Greece, pop. 6000, area 50 km2). Greek island.
- Skopelos (Greece, pop. 4700, area 96 km2). Greek island.
- Skyros (Greece, pop. 2600, area 223 km2). Greek island.
- Slovakia
- Slovenia
- Solomon Islands
- South Caicos (UK, Turks and Caicos, pop. 1580, area 21 km2).
- South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands (UK, pop. 30, area 3900 km2). Islands in the South Atlantic. Claimed by Argentina.
- South Ossetia (Georgia, pop. 72000, area 3900 km2). Considers itself an independent republic.
- Southern Cameroons (Cameroon)
- Spratly Islands (Philippines)
- Strasbourg (France, pop. 273,000, area 78 km2). City-state. German-speaking French city.
- Svalbard (Norway, pop. 2400, area 61,000 km2).
- Tenerife (Spain, Canary Islands, pop. 900,000, area 2034 km2).
- Thasos (Greece, pop. 14000, area 380 km2). Greek island.
- Tinos (Greece, pop. 8600, area 195 k2). Greek island.
- Tobago (Trinidad and Tobago, pop. 61,000, area 300 km2, domain .tt)
- Tokelau (New Zealand, pop. 1400, area 10 sq.km, domain .tk)
- Tonga (pop. 103,000, area 748 km2, domain .to)
- Tortola (BVI, pop, 23900, area 56 km2).
- Transnistria aka Pridnestrovie (Moldova, pop. 519,000, area 4163 km2). Breakaway region of Moldova.
- Trieste (Italy, pop. 205000, area 84 km2). Almost an exclave of Italy, on the coast of Slovenia. Previously a free city-state under the protection of the UN as the Free Territory of Trieste.
- Tristan da Cunha (UK, pop 264, area 207 km2). Over 2000 kilometers from the nearest inhabited island, and 2800 kilometers from the nearest land.
- Tuvalu (pop. 10544, area 26 km2, domain .tv).
- Umm al-Quwain (UAE, pop. 62,000, area 750 km2). One of the emirates.
- Vancouver Island (Canada, pop. 750,000, area 31300 km2).
- Vanuatu/New Hebrides (pop. 225,000, area 12,200 km2).
- Vatican City (pop. 832, area 0.44 sq.km, domain .va)
- Virgin Gorda (UK, BVI, pop. 3700, area 21 km2)
- Wallis and Futuna (French, pop. 15,000, area 264 sq.km, domain .wf)
- Walvis Bay (Namibia, pop. 85,000, area 29 km2). Governed by South Africa until 1994.
- Zakynthos (Greece, pop. 39000, area 408 km2)
- Zanzibar (Tanzania, pop. 362,000 area 2600 km2). Became independent of UK in 1963 and joined Tanzania in 1964.
- Zurich (Switzerland, pop. 372,000, area 88 km2). City-state.
The following countries are excluded from the list. This is not a complete list.
Aceh, Indonesia (too populous)
Albania (too populous)
Armenia (too populous)
Bahrain (too populous)
Basque Country, Spain (too populous)
Clipperton Island, France (uninhabited)
Dubai (too populous)
East Timor (aka Timor-Leste) (pop. over 1,000,000)
El Salvador (too populous)
Greenland (too large)
Hawaii, US (too populous)
Heard Islands and McDonald Islands (unpopulated)
Hong Kong (too populous)
Iceland (too large)
Madagascar.
Okinawa (too populous)
Panama (too populous)
Papua, Indonesia
Puerto Rico (too populous)
Rhode Island, US
Sabah, Malaysia
Sao Joao Batista de Ajuda (Benin). This was a 2 acre Portuguese enclave in Dahomey, annexed by Dahomey (Benin) in 1961.
Singapore (too populous)
Switzerland (too populous, but parts are listed above)
Taiwan (too populous).
Togoland, Ghana (too populous)
Trinidad. Pop. 1.2 million
Tuva, Russia (too large)
Western Sahara (too large)
Yemen (too populous)
The White House releases the 2013 budget
The White House just released their proposed 2013 budget. Here is my analysis:
For 2012, I previously projected revenues of 2523 and outlays of 3752 for a deficit of 1229. The White House budget projects revenues of 2469 and outlays of 3796 for a deficit of 1327. They are projecting lower spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Interest than I am, and much higher amounts in the "Other" category: 1988 vs. my projection of 1876. I find this troubling. I don't think the OMB has good handle on Medicare or Medicaid expenses, and I got my numbers from the CBO. I do believe them when they say there will be more discretionary spending, so the truth is we are looking at a 1.4 trillion dollar deficit for 2012, and I need to redo my numbers to reflect the deteriorating situation.
For 2013, the OMB is projecting receipts of 2902 and outlays of 3803 for a deficit of 901. I think revenue will be lower because of the payroll tax cut extension and because of the AMT fixes that occur every year. They are projecting "Other" expenses to be reduced to 1778, a reduction of 210 from 2012. 71 of this comes from sequestration. I don't think sequestration will happen and I don't understand where the other cuts are coming from. So the truth is the 2013 deficit will be over 1.2 trillion.
Update: I will add Defense as a separate category the next time I update it. The number for 2011 for Defense was 678. The projection in the OMB budget for Defense is 709 for 2012 and 700 for 2013.
For 2012, I previously projected revenues of 2523 and outlays of 3752 for a deficit of 1229. The White House budget projects revenues of 2469 and outlays of 3796 for a deficit of 1327. They are projecting lower spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Interest than I am, and much higher amounts in the "Other" category: 1988 vs. my projection of 1876. I find this troubling. I don't think the OMB has good handle on Medicare or Medicaid expenses, and I got my numbers from the CBO. I do believe them when they say there will be more discretionary spending, so the truth is we are looking at a 1.4 trillion dollar deficit for 2012, and I need to redo my numbers to reflect the deteriorating situation.
For 2013, the OMB is projecting receipts of 2902 and outlays of 3803 for a deficit of 901. I think revenue will be lower because of the payroll tax cut extension and because of the AMT fixes that occur every year. They are projecting "Other" expenses to be reduced to 1778, a reduction of 210 from 2012. 71 of this comes from sequestration. I don't think sequestration will happen and I don't understand where the other cuts are coming from. So the truth is the 2013 deficit will be over 1.2 trillion.
Update: I will add Defense as a separate category the next time I update it. The number for 2011 for Defense was 678. The projection in the OMB budget for Defense is 709 for 2012 and 700 for 2013.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
A Chinese base in the Seychelles
"In December 2011 rumours started floating around that the government of the Seychelles had offered to host two or three military reconnaissance bases to Chinese vessels and personnel. Jean-Paul Adam, Foreign Affairs Minister, stated that his country needed greater support in combating piracy in its surrounding waters. Beijing did say that it is considering the offer but reiterated that the country is not planning to establish foreign military bases.
A permanent Chinese military presence in the Seychelles makes geopolitical sense because of the archipelago's position in the Indian Ocean, which is emerging as a major conduit of east-west trade and Asia-Africa trade. Twenty-two thousand vessels per year cruise in the northern Indian Ocean. The island is thus a logical stepping stone between resources-rich Africa and the vast consumer market of Asia. Chinese investments in Africa have been rising rapidly over the past decade. Protecting, or accompanying, shipments of iron ore, zinc, crude oil etc... from the continent during its perilous voyage to North Asia seems to be a valid motive to establish a naval base in the Seychelles. A small country of 85,000 people, the Seychelles has a history of military cooperation with India and the US. The Indian navy regularly visits its ports while India trains its police and defense forces. The US operates reconnaissance drones in the region through its large base in Diego Garcia, less than 2,000 km from Victoria, the capital of the Seychelles. Thus, by allowing a Chinese military presence on its territory, the Seychelles would hardly be granting Beijing a unique arrangement. "
--http://scepticalmarketobserver.blogspot.com/2012/02/china-will-beef-up-its-military.html
A permanent Chinese military presence in the Seychelles makes geopolitical sense because of the archipelago's position in the Indian Ocean, which is emerging as a major conduit of east-west trade and Asia-Africa trade. Twenty-two thousand vessels per year cruise in the northern Indian Ocean. The island is thus a logical stepping stone between resources-rich Africa and the vast consumer market of Asia. Chinese investments in Africa have been rising rapidly over the past decade. Protecting, or accompanying, shipments of iron ore, zinc, crude oil etc... from the continent during its perilous voyage to North Asia seems to be a valid motive to establish a naval base in the Seychelles. A small country of 85,000 people, the Seychelles has a history of military cooperation with India and the US. The Indian navy regularly visits its ports while India trains its police and defense forces. The US operates reconnaissance drones in the region through its large base in Diego Garcia, less than 2,000 km from Victoria, the capital of the Seychelles. Thus, by allowing a Chinese military presence on its territory, the Seychelles would hardly be granting Beijing a unique arrangement. "
--http://scepticalmarketobserver.blogspot.com/2012/02/china-will-beef-up-its-military.html
Nazis in Space
"A sci-fi black comedy about Nazis from the moon invading Planet Earth is one of the hottest tickets at the Berlin film festival, which is better known for its gritty political fare.
"Iron Sky", a B-movie spoof drawing the crowds at the 11-day event in the German capital, imagines that Hitler's surviving henchmen set up a lunar colony after the fall of the regime in 1945, biding their time to strike back.
The opportunity comes in 2018 when a US astronaut exploring the dark side of the moon comes face to face with a Nazi soldier clad in a black uniform and a breathing mask.
Behind him, a secret military base shaped like a swastika looms into view, prompting giggles from the packed audience.
The intergalactic farce produced mainly in Finland pits the would-be Fourth Reich against an America led by a Sarah Palin double, who is seen incessantly jogging in the Oval Office."
--http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f32abb74f95d14a6936ec9b64350d636.41&show_article=1
"Iron Sky", a B-movie spoof drawing the crowds at the 11-day event in the German capital, imagines that Hitler's surviving henchmen set up a lunar colony after the fall of the regime in 1945, biding their time to strike back.
The opportunity comes in 2018 when a US astronaut exploring the dark side of the moon comes face to face with a Nazi soldier clad in a black uniform and a breathing mask.
Behind him, a secret military base shaped like a swastika looms into view, prompting giggles from the packed audience.
The intergalactic farce produced mainly in Finland pits the would-be Fourth Reich against an America led by a Sarah Palin double, who is seen incessantly jogging in the Oval Office."
--http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f32abb74f95d14a6936ec9b64350d636.41&show_article=1
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Pan African Parliament
Equatorial Guinea can defend itself
"One of the richest countries in Africa, Equatorial Guinea, is rapidly expanding its naval power. The fleet of the 600,000-strong country will be larger than that of 160 million-strong Nigeria. Is Africa preparing for a major war?
A few years ago the country's "Air Force" virtually existed only on paper and included only civil and trainer aircraft. However, more recently it purchased two batches of Ka-29 and Mi-26, and four Russian Su-25, as well as five attack helicopters Mi-24 and one Mi-17 helicopter.
The President did not forget about the army and acquired service mortars, Russian and Chinese artillery, and three older T-55 as well as approximately 40 different armored vehicles (BMP-1, BTR-152, and a small number of BRDM).
In addition to this serious for such a small country like Equatorial Guinea armored park, in 2006 by order of the current President its soldiers have carried out an explicit act of piracy, capturing 15 Belgian APCs Pandur on their way to perform peacekeeping tasks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As a result, despite the small size of its armed forces (2,500 people) in a purely technical sense it left behind most of its neighbors."
--http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/07-02-2012/120436-equatorial_guinea-0/
A few years ago the country's "Air Force" virtually existed only on paper and included only civil and trainer aircraft. However, more recently it purchased two batches of Ka-29 and Mi-26, and four Russian Su-25, as well as five attack helicopters Mi-24 and one Mi-17 helicopter.
The President did not forget about the army and acquired service mortars, Russian and Chinese artillery, and three older T-55 as well as approximately 40 different armored vehicles (BMP-1, BTR-152, and a small number of BRDM).
In addition to this serious for such a small country like Equatorial Guinea armored park, in 2006 by order of the current President its soldiers have carried out an explicit act of piracy, capturing 15 Belgian APCs Pandur on their way to perform peacekeeping tasks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As a result, despite the small size of its armed forces (2,500 people) in a purely technical sense it left behind most of its neighbors."
--http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/07-02-2012/120436-equatorial_guinea-0/
Friday, February 10, 2012
Juarez is dangerous
"Aurora, Colorado (CNN) Tania Nava has one piece of advice for anyone seeking to come out of the shadows and pursue a path to U.S. citizenship: don't do it.
She says her decision to become a legal citizen is one of the reasons her husband was murdered.
"I should've stayed illegal this whole time," the 21-year old widow said. "Jake would still be here."
Jake Reyes-Neal, an American citizen, had traveled to Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, last year to protect his wife as she waited for the long, complicated process to attain U.S. citizenship. Instead, Reyes-Neal -- who had never been to Mexico and didn't speak Spanish -- became one of the thousands of homicide victims in Juarez as his family watched helplessly."
--http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/09/us/juarez-dangerous-marriage/index.html
She says her decision to become a legal citizen is one of the reasons her husband was murdered.
"I should've stayed illegal this whole time," the 21-year old widow said. "Jake would still be here."
Jake Reyes-Neal, an American citizen, had traveled to Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, last year to protect his wife as she waited for the long, complicated process to attain U.S. citizenship. Instead, Reyes-Neal -- who had never been to Mexico and didn't speak Spanish -- became one of the thousands of homicide victims in Juarez as his family watched helplessly."
--http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/09/us/juarez-dangerous-marriage/index.html
NASA abandons Mars
"With limited money for science and an over-budget new space telescope, the space agency essentially had to make a choice in where it wanted to explore: the neighboring planet or the far-off cosmos.
Based on the advance word about NASA's budget for the coming year, Mars lost out.
Two scientists who were briefed on the 2013 NASA budget, due to be released on Monday, said the space agency is eliminating two proposed joint missions with Europeans to explore Mars in 2016 and 2018."
--http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46334188/ns/technology_and_science-space/
Based on the advance word about NASA's budget for the coming year, Mars lost out.
Two scientists who were briefed on the 2013 NASA budget, due to be released on Monday, said the space agency is eliminating two proposed joint missions with Europeans to explore Mars in 2016 and 2018."
--http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46334188/ns/technology_and_science-space/
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Switzerland - a rogue nation?
Safe deposit boxes in Switzerland are being filled with CHF 1,000 notes. 59% of all Swiss banknotes outstanding are 1000 notes. These are being used for tax evasion and probably terrorism and drug deals, with the knowledge of the SNB.
Update: "The U.S. Justice Department called Switzerland's largest private bank a fugitive from justice on Friday after it didn't send any representatives to a court hearing in New York, where it has been charged with conspired with American clients to hide $1.2 billion from the Internal Revenue Service."
--http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SWISS_BANK_IRS
Update: "The U.S. Justice Department called Switzerland's largest private bank a fugitive from justice on Friday after it didn't send any representatives to a court hearing in New York, where it has been charged with conspired with American clients to hide $1.2 billion from the Internal Revenue Service."
--http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SWISS_BANK_IRS
CBO: Don't worry, be happy! Redux
Did you know that our current recession is scheduled to be completely over by October 1, 2012? The mighty Obama has commanded it and thus it will be so. Revenues will increase from 2302B in FY2011 to 2988B in FY2013, an increase of 686B/year or 30%, spending will decrease by 25B/year or .7%, and the deficits will drop from the trillion dollar range to a "sustainable" 500-600B/year amount before dipping lower.
Don't worry, be happy!
Modified From: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2010/09/cbo-dont-worry-be-happy.html
Don't worry, be happy!
Modified From: http://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2010/09/cbo-dont-worry-be-happy.html
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
How long does it take to spend $1 trillion?
On 8/1/2011, the deficit was $14.342 trillion. On 2/2/2012, the deficit was $15.351 trillion. So the answer is only 6 months. The last time I asked this question, the answer was also 6 months.
New Projection: 2036
I couldn't help myself and ran a new projection. First, start with the most recent CBO baseline, just released. The CBO projects deficits as low as 196 billion in 2018. I think the CBO is smoking crack, and I don't see the deficit ever dipping below $1 trillion/year.
I take the revenues as given, but adjust them for tax cuts extensions and AMT patch, as stated by the CRFB. I accept the projections for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid through 2022, except for 2012 when the CBO projects a decrease in Medicaid spending. After 2022, I project Social Security and Medicare increasing by 7% per year, and Medicaid increasing by 8.3%. For other spending I project it increasing by 1% per year through 2022, and then 4.4% thereafter. Sorry, I just don't see spending actually decreasing.
I project nominal GDP as increasing by 4.4%/year after 2022, and revenue as maxing out at 20% of GDP and also increasing by 4.4%/year after 2022. There are some other assumptions I made which are not mentioned.
I assume that the dollar is stronger than previously assumed and will be stable until the net debt hits 150% of GDP. The tipping point is reached in 2036. The problem is that Social spending will continue to increase faster than revenue, and interest rates will skyrocket from 1.7% of GDP in 2012 to 8.4% of GDP in 2036.
I have previously opined that the dollar could survive as long as there was no alternative. Well, I think an alternative will emerge out of necessity.
Is there any way of forestalling this? Yes, a combination of higher revenue, caps on social spending, and continued low interest rates.
Update 6/19/12: Model K-1
I take the revenues as given, but adjust them for tax cuts extensions and AMT patch, as stated by the CRFB. I accept the projections for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid through 2022, except for 2012 when the CBO projects a decrease in Medicaid spending. After 2022, I project Social Security and Medicare increasing by 7% per year, and Medicaid increasing by 8.3%. For other spending I project it increasing by 1% per year through 2022, and then 4.4% thereafter. Sorry, I just don't see spending actually decreasing.
I project nominal GDP as increasing by 4.4%/year after 2022, and revenue as maxing out at 20% of GDP and also increasing by 4.4%/year after 2022. There are some other assumptions I made which are not mentioned.
I assume that the dollar is stronger than previously assumed and will be stable until the net debt hits 150% of GDP. The tipping point is reached in 2036. The problem is that Social spending will continue to increase faster than revenue, and interest rates will skyrocket from 1.7% of GDP in 2012 to 8.4% of GDP in 2036.
I have previously opined that the dollar could survive as long as there was no alternative. Well, I think an alternative will emerge out of necessity.
Is there any way of forestalling this? Yes, a combination of higher revenue, caps on social spending, and continued low interest rates.
Deficit only $27 billion in January
The treasury had $235 (billion) of revenues, $263 (billion) of outlays, for a deficit of only $27 billion in January 2012. That's the lowest it has been in quite a while.
Freaking out about the National Debt in 1881
Somebody in 1881 was very concerned about the national debt, which ballooned to more than $2 billion (because of the Civil War), from only $90 million in 1861. Can you imagine - 2 BILLION dollars? That's a lot of money, even today, but now the debt increases by more than this amount every single day.
Kazakhstan a model for Iran
"one country that used to have the fourth-largest inventory of nuclear weapons in the world decided to give them up, and says it has no regrets. Kazakhstan was a republic in the old Soviet Union. After the USSR fell apart in 1991 its president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, transferred all nuclear weapons to Russia and closed the country's nuclear testing sites.
Last September at the United Nations, he urged all countries to sign a declaration for a nuclear-free world.
It was a "courageous decision" to give up nuclear weapons, Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Yerzhan Kazykhanov told CNN Wednesday, but it paid off. Last year, in the midst of the world economic crisis, Kazakhstan's GDP growth was 7.5%.
In an interview in Washington, just before a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Kazykhanov said Kazakhstan should be an example to other countries. "Over the period of 20 years," he said, "we managed to attract foreign direct investment in the amount of $150 billion, so I think this speaks for itself. We chose the right way to develop. We chose to get rid of nuclear weapons and we managed to build a vibrant economy and we are sending these messages to all our neighbors."
--security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/02/kazakhstan-no-regrets-over-nukes/
Last September at the United Nations, he urged all countries to sign a declaration for a nuclear-free world.
It was a "courageous decision" to give up nuclear weapons, Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Yerzhan Kazykhanov told CNN Wednesday, but it paid off. Last year, in the midst of the world economic crisis, Kazakhstan's GDP growth was 7.5%.
In an interview in Washington, just before a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Kazykhanov said Kazakhstan should be an example to other countries. "Over the period of 20 years," he said, "we managed to attract foreign direct investment in the amount of $150 billion, so I think this speaks for itself. We chose the right way to develop. We chose to get rid of nuclear weapons and we managed to build a vibrant economy and we are sending these messages to all our neighbors."
--security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/02/kazakhstan-no-regrets-over-nukes/
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
History of Science Blog
For future reference, check this out: http://longstreet.typepad.com. It has a lot of interesting entries about such topics as the atomic bomb and science fiction in 1900. A treasure trove of steampunk historiana.
New Urbanism developments in the Denver area
Here are some of the top "New Urbanism" developments in the Denver Area. All of these have flaws, and thus are not perfect examples of New Urbanism, but also have interesting designs:
- Belmar (Lakewood, former Villa Italia). website
- Stapleton (Denver, former Stapleton airport site). website
- Lowry (Denver, former Lowry air force base). website
- Prospect (Longmont) website
- Bradburn Village (Westminster) website
- Highlands Garden Village (Denver, former Elitch Gardens amusement park) website
- Arista (Broomfield) website
- Streets at Southglenn (Centennial, redeveloped Southglenn mall) website
- Olde Town Arvada (Arvada) website. Not really new, except for new condos and restaurants.
- CityCenter Englewood (Englewood) website
- The District (Denver) website. Apartment complex near light-rail and shopping.
- The Gardens on Havana (Aurora, former Buckingham Square mall) website.
- Reunion (Commerce City) website
- Village of Five Parks (Arvada)
The mother of all domestic financial battles is coming
The US had a debt ceiling crisis from May until July 2011, when the situation was resolved by the debt vigilantes backing down. The debt ceiling was raised from $14.294 trillion to $16.394 trillion in 3 steps.
Well, the nation's credit card will be maxed out again, probably by about October 1, and the battle to raise the debt limit will begin again. But that's not all: the Bush tax cuts will also expire and ObamaCare taxes will kick in. The mortgage interest deduction may disappear, and if so, expect house prices to drop even more. The extra taxes will spent just as fast as they come in. If Obama wins, he will claim a mandate for his policies.
Well, the nation's credit card will be maxed out again, probably by about October 1, and the battle to raise the debt limit will begin again. But that's not all: the Bush tax cuts will also expire and ObamaCare taxes will kick in. The mortgage interest deduction may disappear, and if so, expect house prices to drop even more. The extra taxes will spent just as fast as they come in. If Obama wins, he will claim a mandate for his policies.
Monday, February 6, 2012
The genius of layaway
"The key to understanding the appeal of layaway is that most layaway programs require shoppers to make regular payments. Typically, you pick out the product you want, make a down payment, pay a service fee (typically five dollars), and then make regularly scheduled payments over a period of time until you’ve paid off the full price. There are no interest payments, and if you don’t make all the payments you get your money back, minus a cancellation fee. It’s the exact opposite of installment credit, where you get the product, and then pay for it.
From a strictly financial perspective, layaway looks foolish. As critics point out, if you were to put the purchase on a credit card instead and pay off the amount in full by the time that the layaway period would have elapsed, you could well pay less in interest than the five-dollar service fee that most stores charge. Alternatively, if you don’t have a credit card, you could put the money you’re going to spend on the product into a savings account or under your mattress. That would save you the service fee and eliminate the risk that you’ll have to pay a cancellation fee if you end up not making all the layaway payments. What this analysis leaves out, however, is the way people actually behave. Even people who can pay off their credit cards often don’t, since the whole structure of the credit-card industry is designed to make you irresponsible—as long as you make a small monthly payment, the bank will carry you. In fact, that’s what the bank wants: the profits in the credit-card business come from “revolvers,” people who pay a small amount each month and rack up big interest charges—far more than the five bucks they’d have spent on a layaway service fee. Layaway, by contrast, fosters virtue: it forces you to save, because if you don’t make the payment you don’t get the product. It’s what psychologists call a “commitment device,” a way to get yourself to do something that you want to do but know you’ll have a hard time doing if left purely to your own devices.
From a strictly financial perspective, layaway looks foolish. As critics point out, if you were to put the purchase on a credit card instead and pay off the amount in full by the time that the layaway period would have elapsed, you could well pay less in interest than the five-dollar service fee that most stores charge. Alternatively, if you don’t have a credit card, you could put the money you’re going to spend on the product into a savings account or under your mattress. That would save you the service fee and eliminate the risk that you’ll have to pay a cancellation fee if you end up not making all the layaway payments. What this analysis leaves out, however, is the way people actually behave. Even people who can pay off their credit cards often don’t, since the whole structure of the credit-card industry is designed to make you irresponsible—as long as you make a small monthly payment, the bank will carry you. In fact, that’s what the bank wants: the profits in the credit-card business come from “revolvers,” people who pay a small amount each month and rack up big interest charges—far more than the five bucks they’d have spent on a layaway service fee. Layaway, by contrast, fosters virtue: it forces you to save, because if you don’t make the payment you don’t get the product. It’s what psychologists call a “commitment device,” a way to get yourself to do something that you want to do but know you’ll have a hard time doing if left purely to your own devices.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Mitt Romney and Jim Carey
Mitt Romney, candidate for President, born 1947
Jim Carrey, comedian, born 1962
Mario Draghi and Bob Saget
Another celebrity lookalike contest:
Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, born 1947
Bob Saget, US actor, born 1956
David Cameron, Edward Norton and Matthew Perry
I'm on a roll here. Compare these three blokes:
David Cameron, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, born 1966
Edward Norton, US actor, born August 18, 1969
Matthew Perry, US actor, born August 19, 1969
Jean Claude Trichet and Michael Douglas
Another set of twins.
Jean Claude Trichet, former president of the ECB, born 1942
Michael Douglas, US actor, born 1944
The Australian dollar is a safe haven
"MELBOURNE -- Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard Wednesday warned the Aussie dollar would likely remain at a high level for years as it came to be seen as a “safe haven” amid global turmoil.
There's another driver: investors looking to the Australian dollar as a substitute for betting directly on growth in our region — especially in China.”
The flipside was that the high currency had hurt some sectors badly, including tourism, education exports and manufacturing, she said. “The level of the dollar — and the pace of its rise — has broken some business models and forced economic restructuring.”
But she said the strong dollar was driving change and in doing so making the economy leaner and stronger."
--http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/australia/2012/02/02/330349/Australian-dollar.htm
It doesn't sound like there are any imminent plans on devaluing the AUD.
The currency has soared past parity with the greenback on the back of Australia's commodities boom and relatively high interest rates over the past two years, reaching its highest levels since it was first floated in 1983.
Gillard said as European economies suffered — with even traditional currency strongholds such as Switzerland affected — “for the first time in history Australia is being referred to as something of a global 'safe haven.'There's another driver: investors looking to the Australian dollar as a substitute for betting directly on growth in our region — especially in China.”
The flipside was that the high currency had hurt some sectors badly, including tourism, education exports and manufacturing, she said. “The level of the dollar — and the pace of its rise — has broken some business models and forced economic restructuring.”
But she said the strong dollar was driving change and in doing so making the economy leaner and stronger."
--http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/asia/australia/2012/02/02/330349/Australian-dollar.htm
It doesn't sound like there are any imminent plans on devaluing the AUD.
Julia Gillard and Jodie Foster
The prime minister of Australia, Julia Gillard, looks exactly like Jodie Foster.
Julia Gillard, Prime Minister of Australia, born in 1961, never married
Jodie Foster, U.S. actress, born in 1962, never married
Competitive Devaluation
The US dollar keeps dropping in value, but other countries devalue their currencies as well to prop up the dollar. So they are enabling the status quo. With competitive devaluation, exports are cheaper. "Increased demand for products in other countries due to lower prices can also mean more jobs and lower unemployment rates at home."
First, the yuan. "Reuters suggested that both China and the United States were "winning" the currency war, holding down their currencies while pushing up the value of the Euro, the Yen, and the currencies of many emerging economies. Martin Wolf, an economics leader writer with the Financial Times, has suggested there may be advantages in western economies taking a more confrontational approach against China, which in recent years has been by far the biggest practitioner of competitive devaluation." The yuan seems to have an upper level of about 0.16 USD.
Next, the Swiss franc. The SNB has announced that they will not allow the franc to be worth more than 0.8333 euros. On about September 6, the franc dropped about 10% in reaction to the announcement. The franc is very close to that level since it is now trading at .8299.
Third the yen. The Japanese will not let the yen drop to less than 76 yen/dollar.
Fourth, Brazil has intervened in order to weaken the real. "Brazil is capitulating as well, stepping up its actions to weaken the value of the real and prop up the U.S. dollar.
Britain has engaged in quantitative easing to weaken the pound, buying up 200 billion pounds worth of gilts last summer.
Europe is launching a massive quantitative easing program with trillions of newly printed euros. They do it indirectly, by lending to banks which then buy up government debt, but the effect is the same.
Canada engages in quantitative easing as well. "Cue Mark Carney, head of Canada’s Central Bank, who has announced that Canada will “adopt a much milder version of the U.S. and U.K. strategy of printing more money to fight the recession."
The only major currencies that have not intervened to weaken their currencies, to my knowledge, are the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone.
However the krona and krone both have liquidity problems. "Alistair Cotton of Currencies Direct says: “In theory a robust domestic economy translates into a strong currency, but safe haven status is as much about liquidity as it is about economics, and in that respect the krona and krone do not come close to the dollar, yen or Swiss franc.” In fact, he thinks “the relative safety of the krona and krone would almost certainly be eroded if they saw huge inflows, because the relatively small size of both markets means if everyone ran for the doors at the same time – as usually happens in currency markets – both currencies would see massive levels of volatility to the downside.” The liquidity problem also affects the New Zealand dollar, which is less frequently traded than the Swedish krona.
This leaves the Australian dollar as the only credible alternative to the US dollar.
Update: 2/14/2012. The Bank of Japan just did a surprise QE of 10 trillion yen. The USDJPY jumped almost instantly from about 77.6 to about 77.9 and now it is above 78.4. The AUDJPY likewise jumped from about 82.7 to about 83.7.
First, the yuan. "Reuters suggested that both China and the United States were "winning" the currency war, holding down their currencies while pushing up the value of the Euro, the Yen, and the currencies of many emerging economies. Martin Wolf, an economics leader writer with the Financial Times, has suggested there may be advantages in western economies taking a more confrontational approach against China, which in recent years has been by far the biggest practitioner of competitive devaluation." The yuan seems to have an upper level of about 0.16 USD.
Next, the Swiss franc. The SNB has announced that they will not allow the franc to be worth more than 0.8333 euros. On about September 6, the franc dropped about 10% in reaction to the announcement. The franc is very close to that level since it is now trading at .8299.
Third the yen. The Japanese will not let the yen drop to less than 76 yen/dollar.
Fourth, Brazil has intervened in order to weaken the real. "Brazil is capitulating as well, stepping up its actions to weaken the value of the real and prop up the U.S. dollar.
Britain has engaged in quantitative easing to weaken the pound, buying up 200 billion pounds worth of gilts last summer.
Europe is launching a massive quantitative easing program with trillions of newly printed euros. They do it indirectly, by lending to banks which then buy up government debt, but the effect is the same.
Canada engages in quantitative easing as well. "Cue Mark Carney, head of Canada’s Central Bank, who has announced that Canada will “adopt a much milder version of the U.S. and U.K. strategy of printing more money to fight the recession."
The only major currencies that have not intervened to weaken their currencies, to my knowledge, are the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone.
However the krona and krone both have liquidity problems. "Alistair Cotton of Currencies Direct says: “In theory a robust domestic economy translates into a strong currency, but safe haven status is as much about liquidity as it is about economics, and in that respect the krona and krone do not come close to the dollar, yen or Swiss franc.” In fact, he thinks “the relative safety of the krona and krone would almost certainly be eroded if they saw huge inflows, because the relatively small size of both markets means if everyone ran for the doors at the same time – as usually happens in currency markets – both currencies would see massive levels of volatility to the downside.” The liquidity problem also affects the New Zealand dollar, which is less frequently traded than the Swedish krona.
This leaves the Australian dollar as the only credible alternative to the US dollar.
Update: 2/14/2012. The Bank of Japan just did a surprise QE of 10 trillion yen. The USDJPY jumped almost instantly from about 77.6 to about 77.9 and now it is above 78.4. The AUDJPY likewise jumped from about 82.7 to about 83.7.
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