The Economic Cycle Research Institute is predicting that a recession will soon begin. One of their tools is the Weekly Leading Index. When this drops below 120, it probably means that we are in a recession. It last dropped below 120 in October 2008, and stayed there through July 2009. It dipped below 120 in October 2011 for a couple of weeks before rising again. It is currently at 123.2. It is something to watch.