Sunday, February 26, 2012

Projected gold prices

Gold prices have been increasing at the rate of 25-30% per year.  What if they increase at an average rate of 20%/year?  This could easily continue at this rate because of ongoing quantitative easing.

So I will stick my neck out and forecast the following gold prices.  This is based on a price of $1621/oz on 9/30/3011, and is rounded.  Dates are as 9/30 of each year to match the end of the US fiscal year.

2011  1,620
2012  1,950
2013  2,350
2014  2,800
2015  3,300
2016  4,000
2017  4,800
2018  5,800
2019  7,000
2020  8,400
2021 10,000
2022 12,000

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Update:   "over the last 11 years - the gold price has risen in US dollar terms at an average annual rate of appreciation of 17%."  If there is 17% appreciation, the numbers look like this:

2011  1,620
2012  1,900
2013  2,200
2014  2,600
2015  3,100
2016  3,600
2017  4,200
2018  4,900
2019  5,700
2020  6,700
2021  7,800
2022  9,100

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