Thursday, March 8, 2012
The ongoing 1997 recession
Here is a thought I had which I want to make a note of which is that the current "doldrums" we are in have their roots back in 1997. (Actually we could go back to when the Japanese bubble collapsed in 1991, but that seemed confined to one country). There was a global economic crisis that began in Thailand in 1997 and from which it has never fully recovered. There are still dozens of uncompleted skyscrapers in Bangkok. Russia in turn had its crisis in 1998 and defaulted on its foreign debt. Long Term Capital Management defaulted on September 23, 1998. Argentina had a crisis that began in 1999 and it defaulted in 2002. The tech bubble collapsed in 2000, with NASDAQ stocks losing nearly 80% of their value by 2002 and then the hot money shifted over to US real estate which began collapsing in 2006 and still hasn't hit bottom yet. Lehman Brothers collapsed on September 15, 2008, almost exactly 10 years after the LTCM collapse with eerie similarities. The roots of this crisis (easy money + socialization of losses) still exist, so we can expect the bubbles to continue.
Posted by Nathan Vanderhoofven at 4:52:00 PM