Friday, November 2, 2012

An optimistic view of money pumping

I have something to say and I'm not sure how to start so I will just dive in and hope it makes sense.

We have a very complex economic system and it is not clear how it should be designed in a utopian world.  There are problems with a strict gold standard and it did not stop the great depression from occurring.  Maybe a floating or targeted gold standard would be better.  But during a crisis would you abandon or relax it?  And are we still in such a crisis, if we were on a targeted gold standard, that would justify relaxing it?

The Keynesian theory is clearly nonsense.  It says savings is bad, spending is good, debt is good, government debt and deficits are very good, and government spending is very good.  The problem with our current system is that it is debt-based.  In order for money to be created, debt must be created; for example, a mortgage.  But what about the money to pay the interest - where does it come from?  So in order to just stand still, the system must take on more and more debt.  And if this process of taking on more debt ever stops, then the whole system starts to unwind, and it doesn't stop until you get back where you started from.  It could result in a 90%+ devaluation of all property over an extended period of 30+ years.  And while I am advocating some devaluation, this is unduly punitive.

Right now, the government and the Fed are cooperating to pump a huge amount of money into the system.  The final numbers for October aren't out yet, but there could have been $300 billion created just in October.  In normal times, this would be very inflationary.  But the truth is that these are not normal times.

So let me try to paint a positive view of things.  What is happening could lay a foundation for an extended period of prosperity.  Interest rates are very low.  If this continues then this mostly takes care of the problem of not having money to pay the interest on debt.  And the money that is being created could be building a solid "base" for the economy.  It's good that there are lots of excess reserves parked at the Fed.  The system is still based on debt, but it is not as obnoxious because the Fed is acting as intermediary.  While this could lead to inflation, it doesn't have to.  And maybe the Fed has some clue and is monitoring the situation and when inflation starts to break out it while stop the expansion and raise interest rates.

So can I pretend I live in a utopian world?  Who knows what the Fed is thinking, they don't really explain things.  So in my world, I would like to see a targeted gold standard.  For example, the current target would be $1700/ounce.  I would like to see this increase at a rate of 6-7% per year.  (This is based on the rule of 72.  An increase of 7%/year would result in a doubling in 10 years).  So next year it should be at about 1800. There needs to be a little "loosening" each year to provide for interest, and provide a little buffer.  So if gold increased beyond this amount, the Fed should sell gold.  If the price dropped then the Fed should buy it.  Like open market operations, but with gold instead of with government bonds.  I know this doesn't actually happen, but it provides a way of measuring things.

So let's try to be optimistic and give money pumping a chance. But also monitor the situation.

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