The probability of a recession is at 20%

See: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N
http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2012/11/a-rising-probability-of-recession-in-us.html

It's never been this high before and not gone into a recession.  But the data is only updated once a month.  So check back at the beginning of December and see where we are at.  If it goes any higher, its 2008, or at least 2001, all over again.

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Here is another index that can show in real-time a recession happening: the number of publicly traded dividends cutting dividends.   This is something else to watch in December.

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Here is another index that supposedly shows a recession is coming: collapse in new orders 
"the October Y/Y Plunge of -8.1% in this major indicator was the biggest drop since 2009".  I don't think this shows a recession yet, but if it continues it will.

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Update: 12/10/12.  The recession indicator was a temporary spike.  It went back down.  So we are not in a recession yet.