NYSE margin debt declines

What does this mean?  Maybe nothing.  Or maybe a stock market crash is coming.

G30 up 1.60%

G30 as of 4/30/2014
			Shares (M)	Shares (M)	Price	Price	Total (M)	Total (M)
Rank	Symbol	Company	03/31/14	04/30/14	03/31/14	04/30/14	03/31/14	04/30/14
1	AAPL	Apple Inc	891.99	861.38	536.74	590.09	478,767	508,292
2	XOM	Exxon Mobil	4320	4320	97.68	102.41	421,978	442,411
3	GOOG	Google	336.05	674.49	1,114.51	526.66	374,531	355,227
4	MSFT	Microsoft	8300	8260	40.99	40.40	340,217	333,704
5	BRK-A	Berkshire Hath	1.65	1.65	187,350	193,275	309,128	318,904
6	JNJ	Johnson Johnson	2820	2830	98.23	101.29	277,009	286,651
7	GE	General Electric	10030	10040	25.89	26.89	259,677	269,976
8	RDS-B	Royal Dutch Shell	3150	3150	78.11	84.65	246,047	266,648
9	WFC	Wells Fargo	5260	5260	49.74	49.64	261,632	261,106
10	WMT	Wal-Mart	3230	3230	76.43	79.71	246,869	257,463
11	NSRGY	Nestle	3190	3190	75.22	77.18	239,952	246,204
12	CVX	Chevron	1910	1910	118.91	125.52	227,118	239,743
13	PG	Proctor Gamble	2710	2710	80.60	82.55	218,426	223,711
14	JPM	JP Morgan Chase	3760	3790	60.71	55.98	228,270	212,164
15	NVS	Novartis	2430	2430	85.02	86.94	206,599	211,264
16	IBM	IBM	1040	1040	192.49	196.47	200,190	204,329
17	PFE	Pfizer	6380	6380	32.12	31.28	204,926	199,566
18	VZ	Verizon	4140	4140	47.57	46.73	196,940	193,462
19	HSBC	HSBC Holdings	3750	3750	50.83	51.32	190,613	192,450
20	BHP	BHP Billiton	2660	2660	67.77	70.54	180,268	187,636
21	T	ATT	5210	5210	35.07	35.70	182,715	185,997
22	ORCL	Oracle	4460	4460	40.91	40.88	182,459	182,325
23	KO	Coca Cola	4410	4410	38.66	40.79	170,491	179,884
24	MRK	Merck	2940	2940	56.77	58.56	166,904	172,166
25	BUD	Anheuser-Busch	1610	1610	105.30	105.82	169,533	170,370
26	SSNLF	Samsung	130.92	130.92	1,220.00	1,300.00	159,722	170,196
27	TOT	Total SA	2270	2270	65.60	71.24	148,912	161,715
28	BAC	Bank of America	10570	10570	17.20	15.14	181,804	160,030
29	BP	BP plc	3100	3100	48.10	50.62	149,110	156,922
30	FB	Facebook	2550	2550	60.24	59.78	153,612	152,439
31	AMZN	Amazon	459.26	459.26	336.36	304.13	154,477	139,675
							7,128,891	7,242,630
								1.60%

AMZN falls off a cliff but I will leave it here another month to try to recover.  Total is newly added to the list.  Samsung data is screwy. The important thing is the month-to-month change.

======
Update: Now I am thinking that this should include Toyota, Hoffman-LaRoche and maybe Citigroup.

Top Cities #14

Influenced by 10 year estimated population growth rate. Compare to prior list.

1. Beijing (5) [45%]
2. Shanghai (1) [40%]
3. Sao Paolo (7) [13%]
4. Seoul/Incheon (3) [12%]
5. London (10) [12%]
6. Los Angeles (9) [8.5%]
7. New York (2) [5.5%]
8. Tokyo (6) [6%]
9. Chicago (4) [3%]
10. Guangzhou (14) [42%]
11. Moscow (13) [13%]
12. Bangkok (17) [35%]
13. Osaka (8)  [1%]
14. Singapore (16) [25%]
15. Toronto (20) [15%]
16. Paris (11) [5.5%]
17. Hong Kong (12) [6%]
18. Shenzhen (21) [45%]
19. Jakarta (22) [35%]
20. San Francisco (15) [12%]
21. Kuala Lumpur (25) [30%]
22. Istanbul (27) [25%]
23. Mexico City (18) [13%]
24. Washington (19) [13.5%]
25. Manila/Makati (29) [25%]
26. Mumbai (26) [19%]
27. Delhi (32) [39%]
28. Taipei (23) [5.5%]
29. Buenos Aires (24) [13%]
30. Dubai (33) [31%]
31. Mecca, Saudi Arabia (35) [30%]
32. Lagos, Nigeria (new) [45%]
33. Sydney (28) [16.5%]
34. Dhaka, Bangladesh (new) [37%]
35. Dallas (30) [18%]
36. Boston (31) [6%]
37. Kinshasa (new) [35%]
38. Tianjin (new) [34%]
39. Milan (34) [8%]
40. Dongguan (new) [27.5%]

 Busan falls off

Top Cities #13

Influenced by the list of the tallest buildings in the world, and the skyline rating. Compare to the previous list.  I think this is the first time Shanghai has ever been ranked #1.

1. Shanghai (2)
2. New York (3)
3. Seoul/Incheon (5)
4. Chicago (9)
5. Beijing (8)
6. Tokyo (1)
7. Sao Paolo (11)
8. Osaka (12)
9. Los Angeles (4)
10. London (7)
11. Paris (6)
12. Hong Kong (16)
13. Moscow (15)
14. Guangzhou (18)
15. San Francisco (10)
16. Singapore (21)
17. Bangkok (20)
18. Mexico City (13)
19. Washington (14)
20. Toronto (24)
21. Shenzhen (25)
22. Jakarta (17)
23. Taipei (28)
24. Buenos Aires (19)
25. Kuala Lumpur (30)
26. Mumbai (22)
27. Istanbul (23)
28. Sydney (26)
29. Manila/Makati (31)
30. Dallas (35)
31. Boston (36)
32. Delhi (27)
33. Dubai (new)
34. Milan (29)
35. Mecca, Saudi Arabia (new). The Makkah Royal Clock Tower is the 3rd tallest in the world.
36. Busan, South Korea (new). 13th best skyline in the world.

Cairo, Dhaka and Barcelona fall off.

The World of Tomorrow

The 1939 World's Fair opened on April 30, 1939 in Queens, NY.  The whole vision of the future that it puts forth I find kind of strange, kind of like Brasilia, with the giant sphere.   The "Court of States" may have had some influence on the United Nations being based in NY. (Indeed, the UN was first located there before moving to its permanent headquarters.)  Television was introduced there.  The interstate highway system was showcased.  And superman. And last, but not least, Tomorrowland at Disneyland.

Apple Fail

Apple has made a lot of money charging premium prices for their iphones, but competitors are rapidly catching up, and Apple doesn't have anything else similar in the pipeline.  It is running out of cash.  It only has $18 billion left, down from $42.9 bn in December 2012. But no worries, it is selling $17 billion of bonds to replenish its coffers. And it won't be the last - "we fully expect that the company will have to access the debt capital markets at least once more, and maybe twice, in the next 12 months to maintain its domestic cash balance at minimum safe levels."

Where is the money going?  To manipulate the stock price.  They are buying back stock. (They are also doing a 7 for 1 stock split to lower the price).

What about the hoard of cash overseas?  It is worthless.  It can't be spent, without incurring a massive tax bill.

How long can this situation last?  Until interest rates rise.

======================
And AAPL reaches an all-time high of 594.09 on Apr 28, and down just slightly lower at 592.33 on Apr 29.  The only place for the stock to go is up.  For now.

Top Cities #12

Based solely on population.  Cities can only change 5 places from the previous list.  Karachi is excluded as unliveable.

1. Tokyo (3)
2. Shanghai (7)
3. New York (1)
4. Los Angeles (8)
5. Seoul (10)
6. Paris (6)
7. London (2)
8. Beijing (13)
9. Chicago (4)
10. San Francisco (5)
11. Sao Paolo (14)
12. Osaka (17)
13. Mexico City (18)
14. Washington (9)
15. Moscow (12)
16. Hong Kong (11)
17. Jakarta (22)
18. Guangzhou-Foshan (23)
19. Buenos Aires (15)
20. Bangkok (25)
21. Singapore (16)
22. Mumbai (27)
23. Istanbul (20)
24. Toronto (19)
25. Shenzhen (28)
26. Sydney (21)
27. Delhi (31)
28. Taipei (26)
29. Milan (24)
30. Kuala Lumpur (32)
31. Manila (new)
32. Cairo (new)
33. Dhaka (new)
34. Barcelona (29)
35. Dallas (30)
36. Boston (35)

Zurich and Vienna fall off.

Nomi Prins

Top Cities #11

New list, influenced by number of English-speaking college graduates. The estimates are in brackets.  See previous list.

1. New York (6) [7000]
2. London (2) [3850]
3. Tokyo (4) [3750]
4. Chicago (3) [3100]
5. San Francisco/San Jose (5) [2300]
6. Paris (1) [2050]
7. Shanghai (10) [1400]
8. Los Angeles (13) [4100] 
9. Washington (14) [1900]
10. Seoul (7) [1300]
11. Hong Kong (9) [1050]
12. Moscow (17) [2144] 
13. Beijing (8) [950]
14. Sao Paolo (18) [2050]
15. Buenos Aires (15) [1300]
16. Singapore (11) [500]
17. Osaka (12) [900]
18. Mexico City (19) [1200]
19. Toronto (24) [3250] 
20. Istanbul (16) [850]
21. Sydney (26) [2000]
22. Jakarta (23) [1400]
23. Guangzhou (25) [1100]
24. Milan (21) [700]
25. Bangkok (20) [420]
26. Taipei (22) [550]
27. Mumbai (32) [3000]
28. Shenzhen (33) [800]
29. Barcelona (30) [700]
30. Dallas (35) [1900]
31. Delhi (new) [2200]
32. Kuala Lumpur (27) [300]
33. Zurich (28) [500]
34. Vienna (29)  [520]
35. Boston (new) [1950]

Munich and Auckland fall off.

Ponzi point vs Keynesian end game

"Restoring fiscal discipline at the Ponzi point would cause the economy to break down for an unusually long period, failing to create jobs or growth.  The ultimate threshold – call it the Keynesian end game – is when investors refuse to lend more money, forcing the government to either default or start hyperinflating (probably with some wealth confiscation added in). The difference between the Ponzi point and the end game is important. At the Ponzi point, the game isn’t over just yet, but it’s a foregone if not widely-recognized conclusion that you’re on a path in that direction. The path is firmly established because serious action to reign in deficits would wreak havoc on the economy and change the political calculus about austerity."
http://www.cyniconomics.com/2013/10/17/fonzie-or-ponzi-one-theory-on-the-limits-to-government-debt/

Commentary:  So at the Ponzi point, the collapse is certain even if it hasn't happened yet.  So when will the Ponzi point occur?  The article says about 150% of debt to GDP.  Right now the US national debt (excluding intragovernmental liabilities) is about 75% of GDP ($12.5 bn to $16.5 bn).  So it could roughly double before we reach that point.

With the current projections, it doesn't look like this will happen any time soon.  But the standard cure for a recession is a flood of deficit spending.  The next recession (scheduled to start in October 2015 according to Martin Armstrong) will push us much closer to the danger point.

Disco Ludwig

The trillion dollar bailout of Wells Fargo

I just noticed this today. Wells Fargo has over $1 trillion in short-term (less than 1 year) liabilities, for which it pays 0% interest.  When the debts mature, they are just rolled over.

No one else seems to have noticed this phenomenon or cares about it.  Obviously it is a government agency, because anyone else could get at least a minimal amount of interest.  If I can find out anything else about it I will post it.

===========
Update: I can't find anything else about this.  It appears to be a mistake.

TBTF Bond Fund

Here is my chart of the too-big-to-fail corporate bonds, with only 4 on the list.  There aren't really that many companies that have more than $100 billion in bonds and are at least A rated.  I have excluded Bank of America [BAC] ($204.3 bn), Verizon [VZ] ($283.5 bn), Goldman Sachs [GS] ($481.5 bn), and Morgan Stanley [MS] ($508.2 bn) because they are BBB rated.  Also AIG has $88.4 bn and Capital One (COF) has $85 bn.

WFC	Wells Fargo	$1,411,445.30
C	Citigroup	$682,108.20
JPM	JP Morgan Chase	$440,582.10
GE	General Electric	$188,809.60
		$2,722,945.20

I will think about this some more.  Somehow I suspect that if Goldman Sachs were facing problems, they would be bailed out.  The numbers for Verizon are screwy, but I think the rest of these could be in a bond fund of more than $3 trillion.

GE Debt

GE has issued almost $200 billion of bonds.  Here is a chart:

GE Bonds
Series Name	Maturity	Amount $mil	Price	Coupon%
Ge Cap Europea 4.625%	07/04/14	1,033.7	104.5	4.625
Ge Scf 3.75%	07/22/14	1,378.2	102.1	3.750
Ge Cap Europea	07/28/14	1,378.2	98.6	0.500
Gen Elec Cap 4%	10/15/14	417.6	100.9	4.000
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 5.28%	10/22/14	271.8	---	5.280
Ge Cap Europea 2.875%	10/28/14	1,722.8	100	2.875
Ge Cap Sukuk L 3.875%	11/26/14	500.0	101.6	3.875
Ge Cap Uk Fd 5.625%	12/12/14	416.8	107.6	5.625
Gen Elec Cap 2%	01/15/15	509.4	101.4	2.000
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 4.65%	02/11/15	543.6	---	4.650
Gen Elec Cap	03/03/15	5,024.2	99.3	1.310
Ge Cap Uk Fd 5.125%	03/03/15	833.6	109.2	5.125
Ge Cap Europea 5.25%	05/18/15	2,756.5	100	5.250
Ge Cap Europea 2.875%	09/17/15	2,067.4	100	2.875
Gen Elec Cap 3.875%	09/21/15	331.6	103.7	3.875
Ge Cap Europea 0.544%	09/25/15	13,782.5	---	0.565
General Elec 0.85%	10/09/15	2,000.0	100.2	0.850
Ge Cap Europea 1.25%	10/15/15	1,378.2	101	1.250
Ge Cap Uk Fd 4.625%	01/18/16	583.5	105.6	4.625
Ge Cap Europea	02/22/16	1,860.6	100	0.436
Ge Cap Europea 3.75%	04/04/16	1,722.8	100	3.750
Gen Elec Cap 4.875%	04/05/16	385.6	106.7	4.875
Ge Cap Uk Fd	05/09/16	1,000.3	99.6	1.071
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 5.1%	06/01/16	362.4	---	5.100
Ge Cap European Funding, Dublin	06/20/16	10,000.0	---	0.435
Ge Cap Bk Inc Retail	08/24/16	2,000.0	---	1.350
Ge Cap Europea 4.125%	10/27/16	2,067.4	100	4.125
Gen Elec Cap 1.299%	11/25/16	580.7	---	1.299
Gen Elec Cap 2.25%	12/19/16	707.5	105	2.250
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 4.55%	01/17/17	498.3	---	4.550
Ge Cap Europea 4.25%	03/01/17	2,067.4	109.4	4.250
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	03/07/17	2,000.0	---	1.050
Ge Commrcl Ln 1.70688%	04/19/17	8,075.3	---	1.707
Ge Cap Europea 3.625%	06/15/17	634.0	107.8	3.625
Ge Cap Europea	06/15/17	606.4	101.1	1.214
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 5.53%	08/17/17	588.9	---	5.530
Ge Cap Uk Fd 4.125%	09/28/17	1,000.3	107.1	4.125
Gen Elec Cap 1.625%	10/19/17	566.0	104.2	1.625
Ge Cap Ccmt 2009-4 3.8%	11/15/17	475.0	---	3.800
General Elec 5.25%	12/06/17	4,000.0	112.8	5.250
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-1 1.03%	01/15/18	750.0	---	1.030
Ge Cap Europea 5.375%	01/16/18	1,722.8	100	5.375
Gen Elec Cap 4.25%	01/17/18	520.6	99.5	4.250
Ge Corp Aircraft F 0.6125%	01/25/18	2,872.1	---	0.613
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 4.4%	02/08/18	362.4	---	4.400
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	03/07/18	2,000.0	---	1.500
Ge Cap Europea 1.625%	03/15/18	1,378.2	101.6	1.625
Ge Cap Ccmt 2010-1 3.69%	03/15/18	500.0	---	3.690
Gen Elec Cap 8.5%	04/06/18	24,906.6	112.2	8.500
Gen Elec Cap 5.15%	04/25/18	3,522.7	---	5.150
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 2.42%	05/31/18	906.0	---	2.420
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-5 0.95%	06/15/18	600.0	---	0.950
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-4	06/15/18	350.0	---	0.544
Ge Cap Europea 0.728%	08/08/18	13,782.5	---	0.728
Ge Cap Europea 6%	01/15/19	1,378.2	100	6.000
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	03/07/19	2,000.0	---	1.950
Ge Cap Uk Fd 5.625%	04/25/19	500.1	114.3	5.625
Ge Cap Ccmt 2011-2 CMO	05/15/19	650.0	---	0.681
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 3.55%	06/11/19	317.1	---	3.550
Ge Cap Bk Inc Retail	07/02/19	500.0	---	4.000
Ge Cap Uk Fd 4.375%	07/31/19	1,042.0	108.5	4.375
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 5.68%	09/10/19	634.2	---	5.680
Gen Elec Cap 3.125%	12/06/19	679.2	112.1	3.125
Ge Cap Europea 5.375%	01/23/20	2,067.4	100	5.375
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	03/09/20	2,000.0	---	2.300
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-3	03/15/20	400.0	---	0.000
Ge Cap Europea 2.25%	07/20/20	1,378.2	100	2.250
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-6 1.36%	08/15/20	1,000.0	---	1.360
Ge Cap Uk Fd 5.875%	11/04/20	833.6	117.3	5.875
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	03/08/21	2,000.0	---	2.650
Ge Cap Ccmt 2013-1 1.35%	03/15/21	800.0	---	1.350
Ge Cap Europea	05/17/21	1,378.2	96.2	0.513
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	06/24/21	392.1	---	3.250
Ge Cap Europea 4.35%	11/03/21	758.0	115.8	4.350
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-2 2.22%	01/15/22	600.0	---	2.220
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 4.6%	01/26/22	679.5	---	4.600
Ge Cap Ccmt 2012-7 1.76%	09/15/22	500.0	---	1.760
General Elec 2.7%	10/09/22	3,000.0	98.3	2.700
Ge Cap Europea 2.625%	03/15/23	1,378.2	102.9	2.625
Ge Cap Uk Fd 5.125%	05/24/23	708.5	112.4	5.125
Ge Cap Uk Fd 4.125%	09/13/23	916.9	104.8	4.125
Ge Cap Retail Bk Draper Utah	03/07/24	2,000.0	---	3.300
General Elec 3.375%	03/11/24	750.0	101.6	3.375
Ge Cap Europea 4.625%	02/22/27	826.9	100	4.625
Ge Busn Ln T 0.52585%	05/15/32	10,082.5	---	0.445
Ge Cap Europea 3.65%	08/23/32	399.7	---	3.650
Ge Cap Uk Fd 5.875%	01/18/33	1,083.6	121.2	5.875
Ge Busn Ln Tr 2007-1	04/15/35	373.2	---	0.000
Ge Busn Ln Tr 2007-1	04/15/35	373.2	---	0.000
Ge Cap Cda Fdg Co Mtn Cds- 5.73%	10/22/37	815.4	---	5.730
Ge Cap Europea 6.025%	03/01/38	895.9	100	6.025
Ge Cap Uk Fd 6.25%	05/05/38	833.6	128.8	6.250
Ge Cap Comm Mortg 7.05%	06/10/38	1,440.0	---	7.050
Ge Cap Comm Mortg 7.05%	06/10/38	1,200.0	---	7.050
Ge Cap Uk Fd 8%	01/14/39	1,083.6	152.7	8.000
General Elec 4.125%	10/09/42	2,000.0	97.8	4.125
General Elec 4.5%	03/11/44	2,250.0	102.6	4.500
Gen Elec Cap 5.5%	09/15/66	488.4	105.1	5.500
Gen Elec Cap 4.625%	09/15/66	306.7	104.1	4.625
Ge Cap Tr I	11/15/67	813.1	110.8	6.375
		$188,809.60

Source: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/bonds.aspx?symbol=ge

I find this interesting for the following reasons.  I don't really care about GE in particular.  But it is rated AA+ by SP, and I think it is considered too-big-to-fail (TBTF).  I think that the Fed, if it were so inclined, might decide to purchase some of these bonds as collateral for its QE.  I think that these might be considered part of an expanded money supply.  I will look for similar cases.  The criteria are: 1) A+ rated or higher, and 2) $100 billion or more of debt.  Verizon debt doesn't qualify because it is basically junk.