Monday, August 4, 2014

Is the Hong Kong Dollar the new reserve currency?

See: Is Hong Kong-US Dollar Link About To End? HKMA Buys $715 Million To Support Peg 

De-Dollarization Continues: Russian Oligarchs Shift Cash To Hong Kong Dollars On Sanctions Concerns

MegaFon Shifts Cash to Hong Kong Dollars on Sanction Risk

The Hong Kong dollar had originally been backed by silver until 1935 when, facing a shortage of precious metals, they pegged it to the British pound. This made sense in 1935 as the British pound sterling was still (barely) the world’s top reserve currency. But things changed. In 1972, Hong Kong broke from the pound and adopted a new peg to the US dollar. This didn’t last either. After just two years, the US government’s rising debt and inflation forced Hong Kong to abandon the US dollar peg. At that point Hong Kong was well-known and stable… so why bother pegging the currency at all? The HKD floated freely in the marketplace, just like any other currency. It went well for them at first. But by the early 1980s, the Hong Kong dollar had become much weaker due to jitters over the island’s reunification with China. Finally, in 1983, they re-established a peg with the US dollar. And at the time, this probably made a lot of sense. In 1983, Fed Chairman Paul Volker had established tremendous international credibility, both for the US dollar as well as the Federal Reserve. And most of all, Hong Kong was in need of a strong anchor. But 31 years later the world is entirely different. 

“Keeping money in Hong Kong dollars is essentially equivalent to keeping it in U.S. dollars because of the currency peg, ... for Russian companies it’s much safer from the standpoint of sanctions.”

The HKD isn't really big enough to stand on its own.  Hong Kong only has 7 million people.  But I think it would make perfect sense to peg it to the CNH, China's offshore currency.

Right now the exchange rates are:
1 USD = 7.75 HKD
1 USD = 6.175 CNH
1 CNH = 1.255 HKD

There are offshore trading centers for the CNH in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, London, Singapore, Sydney, Switzerland, Paris, Luxembourg, and Frankfurt. (And soon Shanghai, in its Free Trade Zone, called the SFTZ).  New York is not on the list.  It looks like the combined HKD-CNH could be one of the world's reserve currencies.  It would take a long time to replace the USD, but it could quickly beat out the yen and the pound to become the world's 3th most used currency.

No comments:

Post a Comment