On 7/26/24, the national debt hit $35,001,278,179,208.67. When was it $17.5 trillion? On 3/11/14, so the doubling time is just over 10 years. So in 2034, we can expect this to hit $70 trillion.
The GDP is currently at $28.6 trillion, so the National Debt to GDP ratio is at 122%.
JD Vance is Trump's pick for VP. He was born August 2, 1984 (with the name James Donald Bowman, then it was changed to James David Hamel) in Middletown, Ohio (a suburb of Cincinnati) and he graduated from Ohio State University (in Columbus) in 2009. He went to Yale Law School and graduated with a JD in 2013. He co-founded a hedge fund, Varya Capital (in Cincinnati) before becoming a US Senator from Ohio in 2022. He married Usha Chilukuri (a Hindu woman) in 2014, who also graduated from Yale Law School in 2013, and they have 3 children, including 1 named Vivek. (He changed his name to JD Vance in 2014 when he got married). He converted to Catholicism in 2019.
Vivek Ramaswamy was born August 9, 1985 in Cincinnati, OH to Hindu immigrant parents and he attended St Xavier High School, which is Jesuit Catholic. He graduated from Harvard in 2007. He went to Yale Law School, where he was friends with then JD Hamel, and graduated with a JD in 2013. He founded a biotech company, Roivant Sciences, in 2014. In 2015, he married Apoorva Tewari (a Hindu woman), who graduated from Yale Medical School, and they have 2 children. He first got involved in politics in 2023 when he ran for president as a Republican, before ultimately endorsing Trump. He is a Hindu but he tried to appeal to Christian evangelicals by saying that the US was founded on Christian values and he believes in one God.
The two men are practically twins, they are so similar.
Current‑dollar GDP increased 5.2 percent at an annual rate, or $360.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $28.63 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP increased 4.5 percent, or $312.2 billion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2024-advance-estimate
Debt to the Public was $27.613 trillion as of 6/30/24, so that makes a ratio of 96.4%.
One year ago, on 6/30/23, the revised GDP was $27.06 trillion, and debt to the public was $25.462 trillion, so the ratio then was 94.1%.
So, the debt increased $2.1 trillion, but GDP increased only $1.57 trillion.
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Update:
Current‑dollar GDP increased 5.5 percent at an annual rate, or $383.2 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $28.65 trillion. https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second.
Comment: Everyone seems really focused on this, but it is only a $23 billion adjustment upward.
From https://whatiftrumpwins.org/
You can only prepare for what you can imagine. Denial won’t help. So let’s be brave.
What if Trump (or Biden) wins?
Explore the world of “what if” with this interactive pick-your-own-path adventure.
Your character helps grow the resistance.
Can you guide us towards a better, more humane democracy?
(I have not played this. It looks kind of stupid, but a little interesting.)
In 1968, there was an incumbent Democratic president (Lyndon B Johnson) who was unpopular, and a war (in Vietnam) that was unpopular. Robert F Kennedy was assassinated on June 6, 1968. The Democrats held their convention in Chicago from August 26-29, which had massive protests. The Republican candidate (Richard Nixon) was elected president on Tuesday, November 5, 1968.
In 2024, there is an incumbent Democratic president (Joe Biden) who was unpopular, and wars (in Palestine and Ukraine) that seems to be unwinnable. There was an attempt to assassinate Donald Trump on July 14, 2024. The Democrats will hold their convention in Chicago from August 19-22. There may or may not be protests. RFK Jr is running as an independent candidate. And the Republic candidate may win on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
Are there any other parallels?
My source for this is the latest 10-year Economic Projection (from June 2024). This is their data through 2034, except I rounded it to the nearest 100 billion. They are using 3.8% as a long term growth factor, so after 2034, the numbers increase each year that. This only runs through 2054 because it is pointless to project out further, even though it is fun to do so. You could plug these numbers into my deficit forecasting model, since most of those are based on percents of GDP.
2024 28,500 2025 29,700 2026 30,900 2027 32,000 2028 33,100 2029 34,300 2030 35,700 2031 37,000 2032 38,400 2033 39,900 2034 41,400 2035 43,000 2036 44,600 2037 46,300 2038 48,100 2039 49,900 2040 51,800 2041 53,800 2042 55,800 2043 57,900 2044 60,100 2045 62,400 2046 64,800 2047 67,300 2048 69,900 2049 72,600 2050 75,400 2051 78,300 2052 81,300 2053 84,400 2054 87,600See also https://aftermath2022.blogspot.com/2024/01/projected-nominal-gdp-through-2100.html for a more optimistic forecast.
The deficit in June 2024 was $73 billion, CBO estimates—compared with a $228 billion deficit recorded in June 2023. The federal budget deficit was $1.3 trillion [actually $1.275 trillion] in the first nine months of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$118 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues were $342 billion (or 10 percent) higher and outlays were $225 billion (or 5 percent) higher from October through June than during the same period in fiscal year 2023. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-07/60361-MBR.pdf
Net interest for June 2024 was $83 billion ($705 - $622), This is up from $58 billion in June 2023.
On 6/30/24, the national debt was $34.832 trillion. On 6/30/23, it was $32.332 trillion. So it increased 7.7% in one year.
The Federal Reserve now has a deficit of $178.5 billion (as of 6/26/24), up from $171.9 billion (as of 5/29/24), an increase of $6.6 billion for the month. This is not included in the national debt above. (As long as this number stays below about $200 billion, it is not really a cause for concern).
I am trying to focus only on economics, not on politics, but I have to mention this. It is based not on my personal beliefs or preferences but what I think is the most likely scenario.
I saw this posted online somewhere and now I can't find the source, so take this as pure speculation. Someone who claimed to be a Democratic party insider says that Biden will resign soon, and Kamala Harris will become president and 2024 nominee and Gretchen Whitmer will be the vice presidential candidate, thus presenting an all-female ticket. Add in a little voting manipulation in a few key counties in the early morning of November 6, and boom, you have a new woman Imperial President. Some people might have a little problem with this.
Actually, if this happens, there may be a civil war. I hope not, but this seems inevitable.
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This is a list of cases decided since June 1 that show the conservative/liberal 6-3 split, although some of them are 5-4. One of these, Loper Bright, is huge because it overturns Chevron deference. All of these deserve more study.
Garland v. Cargill, 602 U.S. 406
Campos-Chaves v. Garland
Diaz v. United States
Department of State v. Muñoz
Snyder v. United States
SEC v. Jarkesy
Ohio v. EPA (5-4 split, with Barrett joining the dissent)
Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo
Fischer v. United States
City of Grants Pass v. Johnson
Trump v. United States
Corner Post, Inc. v. Federal Reserve
The “maximum sustainable debt level” is the level beyond which a debt distress event is likely or inevitable. For Advanced Economies, median estimates range from 80 to 192 percent of GDP, while for Emerging Markets the range is 35 to 77 percent of GDP. The results for the maximum sustainable public debt ratio based on historical market interest rates indicate a median of 192 percent, while that based on projected interest rates gives a median debt of 183 percent. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/080511.pdf
