Thursday, May 22, 2014

Does history repeat?

2000:  Jobless claims hit a low of 266,250 on 4/15/2000.  On 5/20/2000, initial jobless claims were at 285,000.  They started rising rapidly in Nov. 2000, shortly before the recession officially began in March 2001.

2007:  On 5/19/2007, initial jobless claims were at 302,000.  They started rising rapidly in Oct. 2007, and the recession officially begin in Dec. 2007.

2014:  On 5/17/2014, initial jobless claims (4 week moving average) were at 322,500.

But note: "Initial claims fell to 298,000 in the week ended May 10, revised up from an initial estimate of 297,000 and their lowest level since May 2007."

Update:  "The flip-flopping noise of the initial claims data continues as last week's spike and miss is rebounded into this week's beat and drop. At 300k - down 27k from last week - initial claims are at their lowest since May 2007 - practically as good as it gets. Continuing claims continue to fall - now at 2.63 million - to the lowest in the cycle and lowest since Nov 2007."

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